OKwx2k4 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 I just re-read your post and yes, we did have a winter with a +AO/NAO...it was the infamous '13-'14 season! That was predominantly a +PNA NW Flow season tho and KC did not experience a good winter. Feb '11 GHD-1 was the only share the wealth blizzard I remember.I could handle another 2013-14 winter. Sat under southwesterly flow around some of those ridiculous cold domes for a few days at a time. 35 mph winds and thundersleet is a twice or thrice in a lifetime event. It had the potential to rival one of the greatest winters this area had. It just fell short a little. I probably won't ever forget the infamous "blob" though. That anomalous event is the only reason I had a winter at all. Really incredibly hard to maintain an omega block large enough to dominate the entire weather pattern over the US for that length of time. I'm starting to think the upcoming winter may be pretty special. Thinking November is 2 faced. Warm 1st half, cold 2nd half. Think December is pretty warm for most of us somewhere in the 1st 7 days but after that, I think winter buries us all for about 6 weeks. It's going to be a hard winter for most in the center of the US and Great Lakes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 If this were to happen, it would be a top 3 February of all-time for me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 '13-'14 was a neutral year. Neutral years still can be good even with a +AO/NAO. With a Nina year approaching, there is less wiggle room.Took a look at the daily AO indicies and both in Nov/Dec they were on average sky high +1-+3, reaching +4.46 on 11/15 and +4.3 on 12/15. In Jan '13 it did average out into a -AO, but Feb was a back and forth month..leaning more towards a positive AO. The EPO/WPO were the main drivers that season. I agree, there is less room for error this year with a Nina approaching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 Correct! 2013-14 featured a mostly positive AO, the EPAC warm blob delivered for us in the Lakes. Guess y'all missed this.. Took a look at the daily AO indicies and both in Nov/Dec they were on average sky high +1-+3, reaching +4.46 on 11/15 and +4.3 on 12/15. In Jan '13 it did average out into a -AO, but Feb was a back and forth month..leaning more towards a positive AO. The EPO/WPO were the main drivers that season. I agree, there is less room for error this year with a Nina approaching. ^^^ see above lol. First, Nina isn't Nina, til it's Nina and a weak Nina with a strong -QBO would be hard to distinguish from the La Nada with that EPO/WPO combo we had that season. Thinking the -QBO may be to 2017-18 what the Blob was to 2013-14. I agree with OkWx24's post that it's difficult and thus rare to get a pattern to lock-up so rock solid for Dec to March, that's why I'm expecting very cold spells (perhaps overall dominant), but hedging my bets that some relaxing of the pattern could cause at least one really warm spell like we saw in Jan of 1990 here in MI. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 And, here's our primary moisture zone in a nutshell, our winter pattern if things play out as it looks. Unlike the full-on Nina map below, I expect the orientation more often to be as above. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2017 Report Share Posted October 10, 2017 And, here's our primary moisture zone in a nutshell, our winter pattern if things play out as it looks. 20171010 0z 108hr Euro qpf totals for Sub.JPG Unlike the full-on Nina map below, I expect the orientation more often to be as above. 20171006 OHWeather winter analog composites.PNGNot bad...... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 When we do finally get cold, Lake MI looks to be fuel for LES once again. Had some awesome squalls last winter with that one cold spell in Dec. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 Here's an interesting map showing model forecasts for 10mb temps...CFS is predicting big time warming at the end of the month into November... So are the GEFS....right over the Archipelago region...this is usually the catalyst towards a pattern change... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 So, "back to the future" of our impending winter.. Can't help but feel that Snowday's going hit a bulls-eye again like they did (4) yrs ago. BAMwx's prolly the next closest with their axis of Above Normal snow, but Snowday's is locked and loaded based on this next 7 days being the new LRC pattern. 20171009 0z 168hr Euro qpf totals.jpg Snowday is seriously inviting NE peeps to the winter party of 2017-18 20170930 Snowday DJF Prelim winter map.jpg Meanwhile, BAMwx's telling NE peeps to "just be happy we have you at average, you're NE after all" 20170928 BAMwx DJF Prelim snowfall map.PNGSnow Day is my site. I should have my final forecast out in mid-late November. 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 Snow Day is my site. I should have my final forecast out in mid-late November.You should know better. Now put a dry slot over Nebraska where it belongs. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 Joey D' Aleo posted his comments on his updated Pioneer Model with most recent inputs digested into their data is showing this for Nov-Mar...looking promising, that is, if we get the blocking to hit and hold this cold season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 Snow Day is my site. I should have my final forecast out in mid-late November. Congrats on a great site! I'm not much of a FB guy, but I thought I noticed Nebraska in one of your pic's. Hope you're nailing it this season, and kudos for even attempting the LR seasonal stuff (from a hit-or-miss winter locale like SENE nonetheless). Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 Joey D' Aleo posted his comments on his updated Pioneer Model with most recent inputs digested into their data is showing this for Nov-Mar...looking promising, that is, if we get the blocking to hit and hold this cold season. Man, is that almost -1.5 to -2 (ºC) from yby over across SMI?? The chill will be the "real deal" per his maps. Does he have any precip maps off the Pioneer? EDIT - Dang! Like a wind-driven deluge here at the work office. On the top floor of the bldg and can really hear the pounding rain on the roof! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 You should know better. Now put a dry slot over Nebraska where it belongs.You guys should do better this snow season. I doubt it will be that snowless. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 Man, is that almost -1.5 to -2 (ºC) from yby over across SMI?? The chill will be the "real deal" per his maps. Does he have any precip maps off the Pioneer? EDIT - Dang! Like a wind-driven deluge here at the work office. On the top floor of the bldg and can really hear the pounding rain on the roof!Same here..... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 Man, is that almost -1.5 to -2 (ºC) from yby over across SMI?? The chill will be the "real deal" per his maps. Does he have any precip maps off the Pioneer? EDIT - Dang! Like a wind-driven deluge here at the work office. On the top floor of the bldg and can really hear the pounding rain on the roof!No precip maps yet...he basically uses La Nina/Nada analogs in his write-ups.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 Dr. Cohen posted this map on the current status of the Eurasian Snow cover... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 Here's an interesting map showing model forecasts for 10mb temps...CFS is predicting big time warming at the end of the month into November... So are the GEFS....right over the Archipelago region...this is usually the catalyst towards a pattern change... BAM hitting this topic today as well. Not a paid subscriber so I don't have the rest of the story.. 10-11-17 LONG RANGE UPDATE: DIVING INTO THE MJO & AAM ANALYZING A POTENTIAL PATTERN TRANSITION INTO NOV. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 And, approaching it from another angle is Joe B. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 From a poster on the local SMI board who had been away for quite some time. He's the guy I've mentioned that called 2013-14 via the nature's signal method. Been a long time guys. Felt it was time to add my two cents. A lot of folks busted hard last year calling for a cold winter but who didn't? Me. Why? Nature pointed the other way. Wet and warm. This year? Never before have I seen signs in nature as strong as they are this year leading to a winter that could be on par with 13/14 if not greater in some aspects. Anyone else notice the overbearing amount of seeds in all the trees from the Oaks to the, Apple to the Pines to the Walnut trees? I have never seen so many Walnuts and pine cones. Bushy tailed squirrels are another sign and I have seen a lot. Overactive squirrels gathering nuts is another sign. Saw one in my neighbors pine a few weeks back taking the pine cones off..I have never seen squirrels in my neighborhood before like this year..Spiders coming into the house on a frequent level is another sign and I have had way too many. The overpopulation of bugs and insects in a general is a warning sign.Next thing we need to look at was the unprecedented heat wave in September that has reverberated to the present with 70s and 80s continuing with more likely this weekend. I am running 9.6 degrees above normal so far this month while Battle Creek is at +10.6 degrees. This will even out some but with more well above normal temps coming this month this may go down as one of if not the all time warmest October's. I have long since stated and it is backed up with facts that warm falls crash the other way for the winter...There isn't a precedence for what we have seen the last 3 weeks. Now we are unusually late with the annual first freeze and that isn't changing for the next 2 weeks. The snow cover in Canada is increasing and is on par with 2013 at this time. At some point a big time storm is going to develop on this late season warmth colliding with a growing colder than usual air mass to the N and create the bomb that changes everything and ushers in a rather harsh pattern. You can bet a severe outbreak and windstorm is looming on the leading edge.Lastly, the solar cycle which had plunged to low levels during the summer to suddenly wake up in September and pepper earth with numerous strong flares and then the 2 strongest flares in over a decade. We also saw a big uptick in sunspots in September. The sun has since quieted again but the point is, it had an effect and did it at the right time. I suspect the sun wakes up one more time before the year is out.Today's rainstorm is an early indication of the potential of the winter for storm tracks.Many are already fooled by this fall thinking warm winter and like I said in 2013 when it was quite mild, don't bite on the current state of the weather because nature is pointing the other way. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 From a poster on the local SMI board who had been away for quite some time. He's the guy I've mentioned that called 2013-14 via the nature's signal method.I've touched on this before and to each their own, but for me personally, I'm not going to rely on spiders, squirrels, and trees to try and get an idea of what is going to happen this winter. I know there's probably a lot in mother nature we can't explain, but animals and trees predicting weather isn't one of them I'm thinking is a legitimate thing. These signs have happened a ton of times in my lifetime in my area and didn't mean squat when winter actually happened. I'll stick to what the computer models are showing and other actual atmospheric signals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted October 11, 2017 Report Share Posted October 11, 2017 I've touched on this before and to each their own, but for me personally, I'm not going to rely on spiders, squirrels, and trees to try and get an idea of what is going to happen this winter. I know there's probably a lot in mother nature we can't explain, but animals and trees predicting weather isn't one of them I'm thinking is a legitimate thing. These signs have happened a ton of times in my lifetime in my area and didn't mean squat when winter actually happened. I'll stick to what the computer models are showing and other actual atmospheric signals. Yeah, I've never understood the animal stuff. There is no way an animal could "sense" what the weather will be like 4 months down the road. Animals prepare for it to get colder and that's all there is to it. Trying to nail down specifics based on normal behavior that happens every year is pointless. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 Yeah, but you guys are in NE - no trees - no nuts - no Squirrels. I understand your skepticism Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 Yeah, but you guys are in NE - no trees - no nuts - no Squirrels. I understand your skepticism Huh? We have PLENTY of trees and animals here lol. We aren't just corn fields. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 Huh? We have PLENTY of trees and animals here lol. We aren't just corn fields.Exit Omaha and Lincoln and we are basically cornfields lol The Platte River Valley areas in SE NE are really scenic I will say. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 Pioneer model is going to be extremely too far east. East coast bias from WxBell is always a factor in their forecasts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 JMA weeklies are out and are locking in on the N PAC pattern change Week 2-4 which will drive the N.A. weather pattern to close out Oct and head into Nov. Week 2 the Aleutian Low begins to take shape and the west coast ridge grows...Greenland block also showing signs to want to pop. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201710.D1112_gl0.png Week 3-4...As the new LRC evolves, it looks like both coasts have ridges while a central based trough evolves. Could be a clue for our winter pattern. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201710.D1112_gl0.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 @ Okwx & Possum, if the troughs next month dive far enough south to bring you guys some colder weather, you can feel more comfortable that there will be a decent chance of a good winter season in the deep south. I think Possum is in a good spot this season to see a good winter with a reality check from mother nature. It's going to be fun tracking cutters all season long. Some may be nail biters for you down there! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 Pioneer model is going to be extremely too far east. East coast bias from WxBell is always a factor in their forecasts. That's a model output, NOT their forecast. You'd be spot-on it it were a forecast though. Now, even Craig has a second area of winter winners along the EC, and with 81-82 and 95-96 in the mix, that scenario is certainly on the table. EC/Mid-Atlantic doesn't need storm after storm with some locales having annual snowfall totals pretty low. Heck, one big storm can double their avg. Back to the Pioneer output. That's reading the marginal Nina, almost Nada combined with the neg QBO is how I read it. If we were talkin a solid Nina and SE Ridge, then yeah, bust-o-ramma! Let's see where this goes. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 Well John Dee has his winter "guess" out for the upcoming winter. http://johndee.com//seasonalfcst/2017-18/seasonalforecast.htm As he states take all winter guesses with a grain of salt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 Well John Dee has his winter "guess" out for the upcoming winter. http://johndee.com//seasonalfcst/2017-18/seasonalforecast.htm As he states take all winter guesses with a grain of salt. I wasn't aware that Dee even did the seasonal outlook stuff. Nonetheless, and despite the disclaimers, he's got a decent one. He's not too far away from others, though he's in the full-on Nina camp, and thus his winter vs no winter cut-off line is at least 1/2 state north of where I personally feel is more likely. Looks very in-line with our 07-08 and 08-09 seasons across SMI. I know Dee to be very UP focused, almost pains him to show snow falling anywhere south of there, lol. As if real winter can't happen any further south. For not being his cup of tea though, he's done a pretty good job. For a lot of snowmobiler types in SMI, he's their Midwest vs of JB during the sledding season. His typical snowfall map will show 24+ across the UP, with a dusting everywhere else. (k, maybe I'm stretching a tad bit) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 So, we're changing, while they're not. Would've loved to see the arm wrestling match that must've ensued between KGRR and KBUF on that subject 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 I find him to be pretty accurate with LES events, and normally is a day ahead of most Mets with any track changes when a system is tracking into the region. Last winter he did a great outlook...just wasn't what any of us wanted 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 Wow, by Nov back in 2013, even OKwx's area was getting in on the action. Had no memory of how far south the cold was going. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 Well John Dee has his winter "guess" out for the upcoming winter. http://johndee.com//seasonalfcst/2017-18/seasonalforecast.htm As he states take all winter guesses with a grain of salt. And he doesn't touch NE - smart man! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 That's a model output, NOT their forecast. You'd be spot-on it it were a forecast though. Now, even Craig has a second area of winter winners along the EC, and with 81-82 and 95-96 in the mix, that scenario is certainly on the table. EC/Mid-Atlantic doesn't need storm after storm with some locales having annual snowfall totals pretty low. Heck, one big storm can double their avg. Back to the Pioneer output. That's reading the marginal Nina, almost Nada combined with the neg QBO is how I read it. If we were talkin a solid Nina and SE Ridge, then yeah, bust-o-ramma! Let's see where this goes.Good correction buddy. I'm making a few too bold and brash of statements there. I need to wait a couple weeks before I get too carried away. Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 @ Okwx & Possum, if the troughs next month dive far enough south to bring you guys some colder weather, you can feel more comfortable that there will be a decent chance of a good winter season in the deep south. I think Possum is in a good spot this season to see a good winter with a reality check from mother nature. It's going to be fun tracking cutters all season long. Some may be nail biters for you down there!Yeah. This next 2-3 weeks is probably the most important for me in a marginal Nina year. So far though, I think this winter is going to make 2013 look warm. I'm going with a 75% chance of getting as cold or colder than 2000-01 for most of this region. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 If they give a '95-'96 style winter I will be pretty satisfied also. There was snow on the ground here for all of late winter into March. I moved here from central OK on the third week of March and the ditches still had the melting drifts in them. There probably hasn't been a late-winter like it since in this area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 The latest POAMA December snowfall anomalies...NE peeps up towards the Lakes may be looking at a white Christmas for this year instead of brown grass....but of course, one storm can change that in a heart beat depending on track. I'm feeling a little better that this year's holidays will be better than last year's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 12, 2017 Report Share Posted October 12, 2017 AO and NAO are going to begin to decline in waves over the next 10 days. This, all while the PNA steadily rises, indicate to me that hard Autumn is coming for most of us. I'd say that early season snows are a very real possibility for replacing this excessive heat we have now when we get into late month and November. I have a feeling the excessive snowfall will be much further south than that map above. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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