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Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18


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Prediction for a storm that will hit the weekend before Christmas:     Scenario: Thread started after GFS/EURO have a bomb on Nebraska run after run. Tensions rise.     Scene #1:  Storm @ 168 hours:

Fixed your map. Haha.

Pretty impressive cold that we had for four weeks starting around the solstice and lasting just after the new year. It was the 4th coldest stretch around our parts and coldest in over 20 years!! 

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Over a 100 days now without measurable precipitation in Amarillo,TX. Last measurable was OCT 13 at .01. 

 

​THAT WOULD SUCK. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I am so tired of this winter and its antics its playing on us with the near misses everywhere. So over and honestly would rather winter end early this year.

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Just saw that Gaylord, MI had their least snowiest January on record with only 10.1". Must be nice to live in a place where 10" is a record snowless month LOL

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 

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I'm excited for us to have a snowy af March lol. Those always suck cuz nothing ever sticks around for more than two days. Then around middle of March is when climo begins to favor rain again. Snow is possible after that obviously, but snow in late March-April here is similar in meaning to snow in October. Except it's less of a bonus, it's just a "get this the **** out of here, give me tornadoes" type of deal.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Just saw that Gaylord, MI had their least snowiest January on record with only 10.1". Must be nice to live in a place where 10" is a record snowless month LOL

 

Things are severely wacked whenever Marshall beats Gaylord like I did this January. Nov 2011 was the last time I can remember beating them, and you know what that led to.. :wacko:

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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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^^^ especially for Detroit  ;)   But I'm not doing too bad, only 2.8" from my seasonal avg.

Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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^^^ especially for Detroit  ;)   But I'm not doing too bad, only 2.8" from my seasonal avg.

Yup.....I would not be surprise to end up w a seasonal snowfall somewhere in the 60s or even 70s level range. Heck, I might even surpass your area, if you can believe that, probably not, but, maybe, just maybe. :unsure: :o

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After 2 1/2 months of non-winter here; I finally see a definitive pattern change setting in for the Black Hills; especially after Day 6.

 

A careful examination of the all-important 500 mb chart indicates that a significant trough should begin to become established east of the Mountains.

 

Finally, these penny-ante surface features will have some support aloft.

 

There should be two light to moderate snow events here; late tonight through Monday; then a second one on Thursday.

 

Then the pattern becomes even more active; and I believe that it should lock in right through the end of February.

 

As far as snow amounts; that is always a tough call.  But at this moment; I think an additional 10 - 20 inches at lower elevations and 20 - 40 inches at higher elevations from today (2/11/18) through the last day of the month seems likely.

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After 2 1/2 months of non-winter here; I finally see a definitive pattern change setting in for the Black Hills; especially after Day 6.

 

A careful examination of the all-important 500 mb chart indicates that a significant trough should begin to become established east of the Mountains.

 

Finally, these penny-ante surface features will have some support aloft.

 

There should be two light to moderate snow events here; late tonight through Monday; then a second one on Thursday.

 

Then the pattern becomes even more active; and I believe that it should lock in right through the end of February.

 

As far as snow amounts; that is always a tough call. But at this moment; I think an additional 10 - 20 inches at lower elevations and 20 - 40 inches at higher elevations from today (2/11/18) through the last day of the month seems likely.

Glad to see things turning a corner up there. Maybe it can here too.

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March enters in cold, but a sudden warm-up by Spring and the warmth remains after that w small bouts of coolish air for April.

 

Says who?  :unsure:

Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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BC5NW has been the official recording site for Battle Creek since they moved it from the airport circa 1970. They've now hit 75" of snowfall for the season! They always score more LES than I do in Marshall, but sometimes I question their measuring? The SMI forum Mod lives not far from there, and he's only at 64", which is still 6" ahead of me, but more in line with the typical spread. 

 

This winter has featured some unfortunate "torch-offs" of good snow pack, but when it's been cold it has also been snowy. I've had a total (45) days at or below freezing in Marshall and recorded measurable snowfall on nearly 70% of those days! As a matter of fact, now that we finally got hit with some moist S Stream systems, the two poorly timed melt-offs are the only glaring negative remaining for me personally. No way to erase those, but the deep snow we've built up this past week has eased the sting of those events and elevated the grade substantially

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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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Says who?  :unsure:

My gut feeling..... :lol: Hope it pans out.

 

Btw: went to Boston on a important business trip for a day (came back earlier this afternoon) and gotta say its one heck of a clean city. No snow at all there...bare ground and much warmer temps. It was my second time going there. NYC is next! ;) :D

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I think March is going to be an epic month with huge temp swings and massive storms. I'm calling for a massive blizzard with tornadoes all within either the same state or neighboring states!!! Winter is not over by any means and CPC is thinking the same for next month! 

off14_temp.gif

off14_prcp.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

After 2 1/2 months of non-winter here; I finally see a definitive pattern change setting in for the Black Hills; especially after Day 6.

 

A careful examination of the all-important 500 mb chart indicates that a significant trough should begin to become established east of the Mountains.

 

Finally, these penny-ante surface features will have some support aloft.

 

There should be two light to moderate snow events here; late tonight through Monday; then a second one on Thursday.

 

Then the pattern becomes even more active; and I believe that it should lock in right through the end of February.

 

As far as snow amounts; that is always a tough call.  But at this moment; I think an additional 10 - 20 inches at lower elevations and 20 - 40 inches at higher elevations from today (2/11/18) through the last day of the month seems likely.

 

This prediction of mine verified so-so.

 

Rapid City NWS WFO (a typical low elevation station) saw 13.1" during the interval in question (in range); while Lead; a typical high elevation station; saw just 16.5" (falling short of range).

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Welcome to Meteorological spring.  For meteorological winter the snow fall at Grand Rapids was 66.2” the biggest snow storm was 7.0” on December 25th the most on the ground was 10” on February 11-12. The coldest low was -12° on December 27th there were 8 days of zero or below. The warmest day was 63° on February 20th there were 4 days of 60 or warmer 3 in February and 1 in December. December was the coldest month with a mean of 24.4° (-4.8°) January mean was 24.9° (+0.5°) February mean was 29.8° (+3.0°) For the winter season December was/will be the coldest and snowiest of the winter of 2017/18.

The snow fall break down is Dec 32.9" Jan 12.6" Feb 20.7"

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Here's a recap to the winter snow stats for Chicago and parts of the eastern Sub:

 

DXNZ2pSXUAEaEgD.jpg

ORD caught up and went positive??? Whoa, when did that happen? Also, surprised at IND to CLE. I picked them to have a banner season..

Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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They are ahead of normal 30.3" to 30.0".

 

By midnight; they will be even on the season.

 

The graphic is a Dec - Jan - Feb one; and thus excludes Nov.

DJF duh! I can read. Nobody got anything in Nov, not SMI not ORD. But Chicago was left in the snow dust by Detroit during Dec!

Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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DJF duh! I can read. Nobody got anything in Nov, not SMI not ORD. But Chicago was left in the snow dust by Detroit during Dec!

 

Chicago / O'Hare was in receipt of 1/10th of an inch of snow in November 2017.

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First DJF Winter since 2010-2011 where we didn't break any record highs. Yay?

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Here's a recap to the winter snow stats for Chicago and parts of the eastern Sub:

 

DXNZ2pSXUAEaEgD.jpg

And this is why I have no sympathy any longer for snow lovers in the Chicago area. You guys have had a great winter. If anyone should be felt sorry for its for the guy in Oklahoma here. Man, what a rotten winter he has had. Not trying to be an a$$hole and not trying to say you complain either but when I hear someone from that area unhappy about there winter it just baffles me lol.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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And this is why I have no sympathy any longer for snow lovers in the Chicago area. You guys have had a great winter. If anyone should be felt sorry for its for the guy in Oklahoma here. Man, what a rotten winter he has had. Not trying to be an ******* and not trying to say you complain either but when I hear someone from that area unhappy about there winter it just baffles me lol.

I agree, by far, @Okwx has had the worst winter of all of us this season. I feel for him, believe me. He’s just as much of a snow fan as any of us. The 2 late month warm spells were ill-timed in both Jan and Feb. Other than that, it wasn’t a bad winter. The historic snowy open to Feb did the trick in my book. Too bad it melted in a record 3 days! That one hurt TBH. I’m already looking forward to next winter as I like what I’m seeing.

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Chicago / O'Hare was in receipt of 1/10th of an inch of snow in November 2017.

Haha. I forgot, you like everything spelled out literally and I neglected to include the qualifier "meaningful" in my statement. So, clearly they didn't make up any ground via Nov. What were the other monthly totals?

Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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And this is why I have no sympathy any longer for snow lovers in the Chicago area. You guys have had a great winter. If anyone should be felt sorry for its for the guy in Oklahoma here. Man, what a rotten winter he has had. Not trying to be an ******* and not trying to say you complain either but when I hear someone from that area unhappy about there winter it just baffles me lol.

Three years of nothing here. My snow total over 3 years has been maybe 3". If it happens again, I'm seriously moving to another state. I hate griping so I will end on a positive note. At the close of winter, my drought ended. Hoping you folks up north can catch up on some moisture this spring.

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I agree, by far, @Okwx has had the worst winter of all of us this season. I feel for him, believe me. He’s just as much of a snow fan as any of us. The 2 late month warm spells were ill-timed in both Jan and Feb. Other than that, it wasn’t a bad winter. The historic snowy open to Feb did the trick in my book. Too bad it melted in a record 3 days! That one hurt TBH. I’m already looking forward to next winter as I like what I’m seeing.

I'm still incredibly glad you all had an exciting winter. I wouldn't wish a winter like the last 3 I've had on anyone.

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I'm still incredibly glad you all had an exciting winter. I wouldn't wish a winter like the last 3 I've had on anyone.

You should really consider moving up north buddy!  It's really difficult to have a real winter down in your latitude consistently.  Who knows, maybe over the next 20-30 years things change as we head towards our next cooling cycle.

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You should really consider moving up north buddy! It's really difficult to have a real winter down in your latitude consistently. Who knows, maybe over the next 20-30 years things change as we head towards our next cooling cycle.

I really do have loose plans to move out of state sometime in the next 2 years but I just haven't decided on a place yet. Needs mountains within a reasonable distance, trees, lakes and, of course, plenty of snow.

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  • 5 weeks later...

Dr. Cohen's AER forecast did quite well for the JFM period...

 

DZ4MKBrV4AELIb4.jpg

 

Yeah, it did, but interesting to note that it UNDER forecasted negative departures on both sides of the globe. You can also see certain regions that ended up warmer than forecast (see bering straights for instance) but it looks like the cold regions were the bigger anomaly on the whole

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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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