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Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18


Tom

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Wx Bell's Pioneer model for boreal Winter (DJF)....

 

:o  :o  Barney-esque I'd say! Like that CFSv2 January map. I know some have leaned towards a mild Dec, due to traditional Nina climo, but the Pioneer is apparently not seeing a mild December. If it is, that'd mean JF we'd be off the charts frigid. Have to love the cold + precip anomalies over our way, eh??  :wub:

 

Go Pioneer!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:o :o Barney-esque I'd say! Like that CFSv2 January map. I know some have leaned towards a mild Dec, due to traditional Nina climo, but the Pioneer is apparently not seeing a mild December. If it is, that'd mean JF we'd be off the charts frigid. Have to love the cold over precip anomalies over our way, eh?? :wub:

 

Go Pioneer!

FWIW, I don't know about the Pioneer but I do know that the CFSv2 has been seeing avg to slightly warm December but brutal cold for Jan, Feb, AND Mar.

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Wx Bell's Pioneer model for boreal Winter (DJF)....

Taking that with a grain of salt for now. I can see barney colors about as far South as KS or maybe even OK, but once you get closer to the gulf coast I think this will be a typical nina warm Winter down there.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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JB's experimental ACE based on his analog yrs is calling for a lot colder December than the CFS (another torch at least for now) and it nailed Nov compared to the torch CFS was showing as late as the 20th of last month. 

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/929340935976247296

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tomorrow, some new Winter Outlooks should be coming out. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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FWIW, I don't know about the Pioneer but I do know that the CFSv2 has been seeing avg to slightly warm December but brutal cold for Jan, Feb, AND Mar.

 

Not too long before Nov, CFS was showing total blow-torch month. Not sure how much stock to put into that model, sadly. I do believe it finally (Oct 31st or Nov 2nd, lol) came onboard with at least a below normal Canada. I remember it doing a massive over night flip to cold, but not sure the date?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Meanwhile, sometimes we can get a read on what's to come later on by looking north where winter's effects are already being felt. APX's graphic shows the further north cities off to a fast start in the snow dept, and it's early. Normally things won't really get cranking until later in Nov. 

 

 

 

Canada's almost wall-to-wall from MI on north, so this is a good sign moving towards the first winter month compared to so many prior autumns. 

 

 

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not too long before Nov, CFS was showing total blow-torch month. Not sure how much stock to put into that model, sadly. I do believe it finally (Oct 31st or Nov 2nd, lol) came onboard with at least a below normal Canada. I remember it doing a massive over night flip to cold, but not sure the date?

It started showing Canada below average around the 26th.

 

Looks like this month is headed toward being a case of having the right idea with a gradient (at least with the runs right before the end of Oct), but not far enough south with the colder than average temps.

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.gif

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The euro weeklies are very misleading. I'm not even looking at the details here but by now I should have had 6 - 10 inches of snow if the past few model runs were right. With that in mind, I don't put any stock at all in the snowfall maps from it.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Ha, daily runs of the CFSv2 veering away SLOWLY from the torchy lower 48...wait a few more days and this map will continue to load Canada with very cold air and show more ridge along western N.A.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20171115.201712.gif

 

 

 

Temp trends...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201712.gif

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Gary Lezak came out with his prelim thoughts to KC's winter...

 

 

 

There is a La Niña developing. In the past week the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures dropped significantly down -1.1°C  below average in the critical 3.4 region. This is a rather important index to monitor.  I did an analysis of all of the past 100 years or so of records and in moderately strong La Niña influenced winters the average snowfall is much higher than when La Niña remains weak.  We will learn more in this next week on these water temperatures.

 

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Ha, daily runs of the CFSv2 veering away SLOWLY from the torchy lower 48...wait a few more days and this map will continue to load Canada with very cold air and show more ridge along western N.A.   Temp trends...

 

LOL @ the CFS, it's almost acting like a super-slow motion pattern tracker, not the forecasting tool it's meant to be. Oh well, just as well. Not sure I'd like the opposite scenario tbh, where the forecast looked really cold, but then slowly eroded to "bleh"  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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"I'll take JFM for a million Alex!"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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If the IRI is right, this Winter could have legs and last well into Spring....

 

FMA...

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt_nmme/2017/nov2017/images/FMA18_NAm_tmp.gif

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt_nmme/2017/nov2017/images/FMA18_NAm_pcp.gif

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If the IRI is right, this Winter could have legs and last well into Spring....

 

FMA...

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt_nmme/2017/nov2017/images/FMA18_NAm_tmp.gif

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt_nmme/2017/nov2017/images/FMA18_NAm_pcp.gif

Douse us in the orange that is on top of us.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Keep an close eye out for new Winter Outlooks. Should be available soon during these upcoming days.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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and the CPC’s thinking is that winter could hang on into spring

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

When Spring arrives..I am done w  Winter. Almost nobody wants Winter in Spring. Makes no sense.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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When Spring arrives..I am done w  Winter. Almost nobody wants Winter in Spring. Makes no sense.

 

:ph34r: At least 2014 shut off the snows in March. You shoulda been around for '82 (and '84)  :rolleyes:  That's one thing SEMI does quite well, get winter in spring. You don't remember the 18" storm of April 25th '05?? The one AFTER all the flowering trees were in full bloom? That was a train wreck for Marshall. It's our most beautiful season. We were just handed the warmest April evva last year. Hope you enjoyed every day of it - cherish it cuz I'm afraid it's time for paybacks  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:ph34r: At least 2014 shut off the snows in March. You shoulda been around for '82 (and '84)  :rolleyes:  That's one thing SEMI does quite well, get winter in spring. You don't remember the 18" storm of April 25th '05?? The one AFTER all the flowering trees were in full bloom? That was a train wreck for Marshall. It's our most beautiful season. We were just handed the warmest April evva last year. Hope you enjoyed every day of it - cherish it cuz I'm afraid it's time for paybacks  

Now, giving all that snow fell on that date was totally useless. I don't recall that snowstorm becuz I was living in NYC at that time. I bet it killed all flowers and trees during that storm and I bet the snow was gone in just a few days. So, not seeing any excitement in that snowstorm. If it was D,J,F or even early parts of March, then, absolutely, I am all for it. Not late April. In late April, people are thinking about gardening, planting, Spring cleaning and etc, not a major snowstorm. I bet you encountered lots of flooding, eh. :rolleyes:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Now, giving all that snow fell on that date was totally useless. I don't recall that snowstorm becuz I was living in NYC at that time. I bet it killed all flowers and trees during that storm and I bet the snow was gone in just a few days. So, not seeing any excitement in that snowstorm. If it was D,J,F or even early parts of March, then, absolutely, I am all for it. Not late April. In late April, people are thinking about gardening, planting, Spring cleaning and etc, not a major snowstorm. I bet you encountered lots of flooding, eh. :rolleyes:

 

OH! I hated that storm. Might be the only snowstorm I'll ever say that about. Fortunately, BC/Marshall only got 5", the 18" was from your area on north thru the Thumb. Like you said, I love winter-in winter! Not overstaying it's welcome long after spring is in full bloom. I'm a SEMI native, so Christmas to mid-March was traditional wintertime and works fine by me. Ofc, I'm much more okay with starting 2-4 wks earlier, but going into April is really bad. Now that I think about it, 07-08 was that way. Still snowing the morning I flew out of DTW (4/12/08 iirc). 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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AER's winter outlook...Dr. Cohen's company...he mentions that the SAI index is similar to Oct '13...hmmm....he also mentions there could be a long period of severe winter, primarily sometime in Jan/Feb from what I have been reading in recent weeks.

 

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/16/snow-in-siberia-presents-mixed-signals-about-the-winter-outlook-in-eastern-u-s/?utm_term=.e77620c5e12f

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OH! I hated that storm. Might be the only snowstorm I'll ever say that about. Fortunately, BC/Marshall only got 5", the 18" was from your area on north thru the Thumb. Like you said, I love winter-in winter! Not overstaying it's welcome long after spring is in full bloom. I'm a SEMI native, so Christmas to mid-March was traditional wintertime and works fine by me. Ofc, I'm much more okay with starting 2-4 wks earlier, but going into April is really bad. Now that I think about it, 07-08 was that way. Still snowing the morning I flew out of DTW (4/12/08 iirc).

 

I remember Spring, April, 6th, 1982, NYC received a blizzard and ended up w nearly a foot. I was very young at that time, but, could still remember how awful it was. Lows that night when the snow ended dipped into the teens. For April standards, that was brutal.

4d4810d3a0ce2.image.jpg

http://www.nytimes.com/1982/04/07/nyregion/rare-april-blizzard-punishes-metropolitan-new-york.html

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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My original analogs showed some pretty decent cold spring anomalies so hopes for a short winter may be slim.

Anyone in their right mind will not want Winter to continue into Spring. Especially, heading into April. Makes absolutely no sense.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Anyone in their right mind will not want Winter to continue into Spring. Especially, heading into April. Makes absolutely no sense.

Except me.

 

:D

 

Give me a blizzard in July. That'd be a good birthday present. Money also works. Not the money on this forum though.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Last, but not least, the JAMSTEC has come out with it's seasonal forecast.  It veered away from its blow torch winter last month, but still contradicting the other climate models.

 

DJF...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1nov2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2018.1nov2017.gif

 

 

 

SST's...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2018.1nov2017.gif

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Except me.

 

:D

 

Give me a blizzard in July. That'd be a good birthday present. Money also works. Not the money on this forum though.

Same for me. Screw summer. Give me 4 weeks of green scenery, blackberries, home grown veggies, a camping trip, and a week on each end for severe weather. After that, bring on winter again.

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Same for me. Screw summer. Give me 4 weeks of green scenery, blackberries, home grown veggies, a camping trip, and a week on each end for severe weather. After that, bring on winter again.

My 3 seasons:

 

Winter: November/December-April

Severe weather: May-June

Okay Winter seriously where are you and why do we have a drought developing right when Winter should be starting oh great another wind advisory and 90 degree temperatures: July-October/November

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Last, but not least, the JAMSTEC has come out with it's seasonal forecast. It veered away from its blow torch winter last month, but still contradicting the other climate models.

 

DJF...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1nov2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2018.1nov2017.gif

 

 

 

SST's...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2018.1nov2017.gif

Given it's known warm bias, and likely seeing at least one month there significantly above avg, I'd say at some point that map is illustrating the classic Siberian express/polar jet pattern with w/based -NAO. I Like the SW ridge/neutral-pos PNA look there too. Not much unlike the longer lasting portion of our current pattern and I also believe the models will start flipping at least to a more normal/cool look for December as we close this month out. Think only issues we're having now are intraseasonal and if I understand correctly (depending on the source) the QBO still hasn't reversed in the final 5mb. This means that for probably the next 2 weeks may see some "feedbacks" from the old pattern show up again within this new one for a time but the worst of it is over and I think the majority of the intraseasonal feedbacks are starting to become less as time goes. The Pacific has really gotten us a long way this fall. Can't wait until it hands off to the other variables in play. Love the precip patterns there also. Don't have much to say or add to them.

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MORE: La Niña Conditions Have Arrived and Are Likely to Remain Through Early 2018)

Signs of La Niña's influence may be evident already in November, with colder-than-average temperatures dominating the north-central and northwest states.

Winter (December through February) temperature outlooks from both The Weather Company and NOAA feature some similarities to what is typically expected in a La Niña winter.

“As is typical in La Niña base state winters, we expect the greatest risk of cold early in the winter in the eastern U.S., with the cold retreating towards the Pacific Northwest as the winter progresses,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.

(MORE: Where Winter Weather Has Already Been Extreme This Season)

La Niña, El Niño or the lack of either, known as the neutral phase, is only one large-scale forcing on the atmosphere. It is not arbiter in determining whether a season is wet, dry, cold or warm. Other factors are in play, including atmospheric blocking.

Below are the national details on what to expect.

Temperature Outlook

The highest odds of below-average temperatures are from the Pacific Northwest to the upper Mississippi Valley, also extending into the Northeast due to increased risks of "blocking" weather patterns featuring jet stream dips getting stuck over the eastern states.

The rest of the U.S. is expected to see near- or above-average temperatures this winter. The warmest temperatures, relative to average, will likely be found over the south-central states and parts of the Desert Southwest. A mild winter is typical throughout the South during La Niña winters.

1115_twc-outlook_0.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&
Winter Temperature Outlook

The red contour in the south-central states corresponds to higher probabilities of above-average temperatures. The light blue and orange contours show where temperatures may be slightly below or slightly above average, respectively. (The Weather Company, an IBM Business)

Since last winter featured a weak La Niña, Crawford said it’s reasonable to use it as an analog for this winter’s forecast.

Last winter, much of the East into the South and Midwest had one of their warmest winters while the Northwest was colder than average.

Two of the top-10 warmest winters dating to 1895 in the Lower 48 have occurred in back-to-back years. Last winter was the seventh warmest, and 2015-16 was an all-time record-warm winter.

(MORE: 5 Best/Worst U.S. Cities in Winter 2016-17)

However, Crawford cautioned against simply assuming last winter will repeat itself exactly this winter, especially if it has more blocking weather patterns in the upper atmosphere as mentioned above.

One particular blocking pattern would feature a southward dip in the jet stream east of the Rockies that could “lock in” for extended periods of time, leading to shivering results.

“Analysis of other analog sets and statistical models suggest increased blocking risks relative to last year, which isn't saying much, but should result in a colder winter,” Crawford added.

On the other hand, if a less-blocking scenario panned out, conditions would be similar to last year with below-average temperatures confined to the Pacific Northwest again.

Keep in mind, these outlooks are overall trends over a three-month period from December through February.

An individual cold front or an upper ridge of high pressure can lead to a period of colder or warmer weather, respectively, that bucks the overall three-month trend. The same front or area of high pressure can bring a brief period of enhanced precipitation or dry spell that may or may not be indicative of the overall trend that is forecast.  

Precipitation Outlook

NOAA's precipitation forecast also has some correlation with what is expected in a La Niña winter.

Portions of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and northern Rockies have the highest odds of above-average precipitation this winter. Depending on temperatures at any given time this winter, we could see increased odds of snow in those regions.

(MORE: Winter Storm Names 2017-18)

Meanwhile, the South could be in for a dry winter, which is typical during La Niña. If this pans out as forecast, there is the possibility of growing drought conditions, also giving a boost to wildfire danger in this region next spring.

noaa-winter-precip.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&

Winter Precipitation Outlook

Dark-green shaded areas in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and the northern Rockies have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter. Locations highlighted in dark brown across the South have the highest probability of drier-than-average conditions. Areas not shaded have an equal chance of seeing precipitation below, above or near average. (NOAA)

 

TWC is on board w BA temps and AN precipitation.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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:D We're outpacing the vaulted 2013-14 at the early stages..

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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