March in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Anywho.... beautiful day out there. Crisp sunshine and 54 currently.

 

You're right... the models show a cold, wet summer.   I am just not seeing it in those maps because Brett mixed up his colors!   

 

Yep... silly me.    You attack when you don't like what you are seeing... and praise even without merit if you do like what the models show.  

[Jesse]

You're right... the models show a cold, wet summer. I am just not seeing it in those maps because Brett mixed up his colors!

 

Yep... silly me. You attack when you don't like what you are seeing... and praise even without merit if you do like what the models show.

Let it go.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully a beautifully hot and dry summer is in store for us.

 

That would be nice.   Maybe with a thunderstorm/rain event once a week at night to keep it somewhat green.  

 

But I like watering in the summer.   Makes it feel like true summer.   

[TT-SEA]

Let it go.

 

Whatever.   

[Guest Monty67]

That would be nice.   Maybe with a thunderstorm/rain event once a week at night to keep it somewhat green.  

 

But I like watering in the summer.   Makes it feel like true summer.

I good nocturnal light show would be nice, it has been years since I have seen one. Somehow they totally avoided my area last year.

[Guest Monty67]

42/32 here today with 0.03" of drizzle, about as ugly as it gets for mid-march.

[Snowman5678]

Was on my way to work this morning DT sitting at a red light @ Denny and Broad facing east and saw the helo lift up, rotate counterclockwise then nose dive and crash landing on it's side.

 

I'm still shaky from having witnessed that, my thoughts and prayers go out to KOMO

Oh my god! very scary! Tragic day...saw the smoke plume and knew something bad had happened.

[richard mann]

Yes. Look into how NCDC "quality controls" the grid layout based on station distribution. It's laughable, and designed to trim the colder anomalies, while amplifying/expanding the warmer deviations.

 

Cite something more specific supporting your assertion here.

[Phil]

Cite something more specific supporting your assertion here.

http://www.homogenisation.org/files/private/WG1/Bibliography/Method_Description/Climate/PETERSON_etal_1998b.pdf

 

All geophysical data bases need some form of quality assurance. Otherwise, erroneous data points may produce faulty analyses. However, simplistic quality control procedures have been known to contribute to erroneous conclusions by removing valid data points that were more extreme than the data set compilers expected. In producing version 2 of the global historical climatology network’s (GHCN’s) temperature data sets, a variety of quality control tests were evaluated and a specialized suite of procedures was developed. Quality control traditionally relies primarily on checks for outliers from both a time series and spatial perspective, the latter accomplished by comparisons with neighbouring stations. This traditional approach was used, and it was determined that there are many data problems that require additional tests to detect. In this paper a suite of quality control tests are justified and documented and applied to this global temperature data base, emphasizing the logic and limitations of each test. © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society.

[richard mann]

-
The abstract that you copied in here above, along with the ideas pointed to following it within the main article that you've cited here above, certainly appear to hold the data that you've pointed to above further, as perhaps, dubious. 
 
However, I'm finding nothing (Please correct me here if I'm mistaken.) .. working to support what you've asserted more broadly, more generally.

[snow_wizard]

I good nocturnal light show would be nice, it has been years since I have seen one. Somehow they totally avoided my area last year.

Bummer. We did score big on lighting last summer here.

[Snowman5678]

Bummer. We did score big on lighting last summer here.

Best storms I have seen out here since I moved here! I guess I was still taking a break from the forums when the storms happened...here is one of my fav pictures of the storms on the night of august 9th-10th

 

[Phil]

-

The abstract that you copied in here above, along with the ideas pointed to following it within the main article that you've cited here above, certainly appear to hold the data that you've pointed to above further, as perhaps, dubious.

 

How so?

 

The NCDC network and GSN networks follow different homogenization techniques and quality control guidelines.

 

However, I'm finding nothing (Please correct me here if I'm mistaken.) .. working to support what you're asserted more broadly, more generally.

Regarding NCDC's homogenization protocol? Please elaborate.

[richard mann]

-

How so? ... The NCDC network and GSN networks follow different homogenization techniques and quality control guidelines.

You've apparently not understood what I've said.
 

The abstract that you've copied in here above, along with the ideas pointed to following it within the main article that you've cited here above, ........ certainly —> [do. .. ?] ... appear to hold the data that you've pointed to above further, as perhaps, dubious. 
 
However, I'm finding nothing (Please correct me here if I'm mistaken.) .. working to support what you've asserted more broadly, more generally.

.. As in, .... I've conceded the lesser idea that you've pointed to:  the potential (if only.) that the data that you had, "may" be dubious. .... Or, questionable. -(?)

 

Regarding NCDC's homogenization protocol? Please elaborate.

And with what I've said (suggested, if you prefer.) otherwise here above, I hadn't in fact been referring to the "NCDC's protocol", but this following , the you had asserted ... "more broadly" and "more generally". ...
 

.....  laughable, and designed .... to trim the colder anomalies, while amplifying/expanding the warmer deviations.

[Jesse]

Hope I don't get put on mod preview for saying this, but it would be really nice if the Richard/Phil debates were moved elsewhere.

[richard mann]

-
.. You're basically dealing with (experiencing), .. "Phil's" having elected to bring up more broad-reaching and more climatologically focused ideas, here within the man PNW sub-forum, "Jesse".
 
— As in, don't hold me accountable for responding to these types of submissions .. having be tacked in, here. 

This said, I'll agree with you.

[richard mann]

-

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/forum/21-climatology-discussion/

[Poulsbo Snowman]

-

You've apparently not understood what I've said.

 

.. As in, .... I've conceded the lesser idea that you've pointed to:  the potential (if only.) that the data that you had, "may" be dubious. .... Or, questionable. -(?)

 

 

And with what I've said (suggested, if you prefer.) otherwise here above, I hadn't in fact been referring to the "NCDC's protocol", but this following , the you had asserted ... "more broadly" and "more generally". ...

 

I can relate to Phil--I can't understand much of what Richard tries to say.

[richard mann]

I can relate to Phil--I can't understand much of what Richard tries to say.

 

You mean "has" to say of course. Right. ?

 

— Wouldn't "tries" denote more that you could, in fact understand much of what, per your view, I hadn't quite been able to convey. ? 

 

.. But then again, perhaps I haven't understood what you've said here above.

[Jesse]

Beautiful morning out here. If we can't build the mountain snowpack in March (which we should really be doing) it may as well be crisp and clear like this!

[Jesse]

Pretty significant arctic airmass (especially by late-March standards) looks like it will descend upon the lower 48 early next week.

[epiceast]

Only about 30% of the country is painted in actual red on each map.

 

Maybe only 20% in April and May.

 

You just see it through cold biased eyes.

 

I am just looking at it for clues on the overall pattern and where ridging will be more dominant this summer.   It seems that the models are saying that is out West and that is nice to see.

Really like May & June on those maps. Hate July & August, also I would prefer a cool April.

[Jesse]

Really like May & June on those maps. Hate July & August, also I would prefer a cool April.

 

I wouldn't put a lot of stock into those maps. They are probably just based on NOAA's long-range maps, which are pretty laughable themselves. Beyond their monthly outlook for March, none of them show ANY below normal temps for anywhere in the lower 48. Just above average or EC. Seems fairly improbable, especially considering some of the huge minus departures witnessed in the lower 48 over the past several months.

 

I haven't looked at that part of NOAA's  site for awhile, and was pretty taken aback by the blatant warm bias in their outlooks.

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't put a lot of stock into those maps. They are probably just based on NOAA's long-range maps, which are pretty laughable themselves. Beyond their monthly outlook for March, none of them show ANY below normal temps for anywhere in the lower 48. Just above average or EC. Seems fairly improbable, especially considering some of the huge minus departures witnessed in the lower 48 over the past several months.

 

I haven't looked at that part of NOAA's  site for awhile, and was pretty taken aback by the blatant warm bias in their outlooks.

 

 

That is shocking!    

[Jesse]

That is shocking!    

 

So you think it's probable that NOWHERE in the lower 48 ends up with below average temperatures through spring of 2015?

 

I think that's pretty unlikely. Probably just my cold bias talking, though.

[TT-SEA]

So you think it's probable that NOWHERE in the lower 48 ends up with below average temperatures through spring of 2015?

 

I think that's pretty unlikely. Probably just my cold bias talking, though.

 

Probably the Midwest.   Persistence!

[Jesse]

Probably the Midwest.   Persistence!

 

Alright then. You disagree with the NOAA long range outlook maps in that case.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Probably the Midwest.   Persistence!

If El Nino develops this summer, then it would be more likely that the Midwest and East would have below average temperatures in the summer, while the West would be warmer than average. The SW monsoon may be more active as well.

[Weather101]

I hate summers that are too hot! Just sunny and regular temps is fine for me

[TT-SEA]

Dumping hail/graupel here.

 

Spring has arrived.   

[Jesse]

Looks like the latest Euro weeklies show a wet first half of April.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the latest Euro weeklies show a wet first half of April.

 

 

Looks pretty marginal on Brett's maps.    Just a small area.   Although it makes sense that it would stay wet awhile longer.

 

My relatives in the Midwest are going to be very pissed if the latest ECMWF weeklies verify.   Winter never ends there.   This is very much like last spring.  

[Guest Monty67]

If Brett Anderson has a warm bias he isn't showing it on his latest weekly long range update. That is a lot of cold across north America.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_03190347_mar19a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_03190348_mar19b.png

[Guest Monty67]

I hate summers that are too hot! Just sunny and regular temps is fine for me

I am not sure that I have ever experienced a summer in my area that I would consider to be too hot!

 

Don't you live by the Vancouver Airport? It is a pretty rare day that that area exceeds 90F, what do you consider to be too hot?

[TT-SEA]

If Brett Anderson has a cold bias he isn't showing it on his latest weekly long range update. That is a lot of cold across north America.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_03190347_mar19a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_03190348_mar19b.png

 

 

Jesse will literally mock anyone who says it will ever be warm in the PNW.    Its very transparent.  

 

I don't want to start anything... we all have our issues.  

[Jesse]

Jesse will literally mock anyone who says it will ever be warm in the PNW. Its very transparent.

 

I don't want to start anything... we all have our issues.

That's not even close to being true. But I know you ARE trying to start something, have been all day, so I will just leave it there and move on.

[TT-SEA]

That's not even close to being true. But I know you ARE trying to start something, have been all day, so I will just leave it there and move on.

 

 

I have not.   And its 100% true.   

[Jesse]

If Brett Anderson has a warm bias he isn't showing it on his latest weekly long range update. That is a lot of cold across north America.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_03190347_mar19a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_03190348_mar19b.png

When the cold is staring him in the face and is at a short enough range so that it's undeniable he will put it on his maps.

 

But when it gets into the realm of the long (month+) range he starts to get pretty liberal with the color red.

[Phil]

I have not. And its 100% true.

Not really. Brett Anderson's "interpretations" always run too warm..always.

 

That and the fact that climate modeling has shown an inherent warm bias since 2009..

[Phil]

When the cold is staring him in the face and is at a short enough range so that it's undeniable he will put it on his maps.

 

But when it gets into the realm of the long (month+) range he starts to get pretty liberal with the color red.

This x777