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March in the Pacific Northwest


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We heard the rumble of the slide this morning in our house even though we are quite a distance from Oso. My wife came into the kitchen were i was wondering what I was doing. It had that rumble sound just like the beginning of a earthquake so I thought for sure the shaking was about to happen. Hopefully everyone is heeding the warning to stay clear of the river.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Care to elaborate?

 

Sure. Clearcut logging has been responsible for many large landslides in the past. When you strip an entire hillside of vegetation it becomes much more vulnerable to that kind of thing. I can tell based on that picture that the area that slid down was part of a clearcut.

 

Hope I'm not in trouble. I'm not trying to offend anyone here.

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It's been wet, not "extremely" wet by PNW standards (see November 2006).

It was triggered by all the rain recently. Check out the Seattle Times. Same area had a major slide in 2006.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sure. Clearcut logging has been responsible for many large landslides in the past. When you strip an entire hillside of vegetation it becomes much more vulnerable to that kind of thing. I can tell based on that picture that the area that slid down was part of a clearcut.

 

Hope I'm not in trouble. I'm not trying to offend anyone here.

Definitely. Logging took place here in the earlier years and led to a crapload of landslides along backbone ridge, which is where I live now. You can still see the evidence left behind. It's ashame, some of those trees were 200-300yrs old.

 

Now the remaining big trees are really exposed to the wind. The Derecho/Sandy combo in 2012 took out 50-75% of them. Only 7 remain in the vicinity of my house, only 3 left on my property.

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It was triggered by all the rain recently. Check out the Seattle Times. Same area had a major slide in 2006.

 

No s**t. Obviously it was triggered by rain. My point was that it was not immediately preceded by a major rain event. Don't call the moderate rain totals we've seen this month major. 

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No s**t. Obviously it was triggered by rain. My point was that it was not immediately preceded by a major rain event. Don't call the moderate rain totals we've seen this month major. 

 

 

Whatever.    Major enough to cause a huge problem.   

 

And its been an extremely wet March which followed a very wet February.  That is just a fact.     I have had 17 inches of rain here this month and almost 30 inches in the last 6 weeks.    And that area has probably been even wetter since its in the favored c-zone location.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Reading some other stuff about the slide on facebook... people who live close to that area are saying there was no logging there.

 

But I think it was in a previous slide area:

 

1506853_10152342245416617_789122910_n.jp

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Reading some other stuff about the slide on facebook... people who live close to that area are saying there was no logging there.

 

But I think it was in a previous slide area:

 

1506853_10152342245416617_789122910_n.jp

 

You can tell from that pic that it is in a previous slide area.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Whatever.    Major enough to cause a huge problem.   

 

And its been an extremely wet March which followed a very wet February.  That is just a fact.     I have had 17 inches of rain here this month and almost 30 inches in the last 6 weeks.    And that area has probably been even wetter since its in the favored c-zone location.

 

Looks like 11" of rain this month at Cicero, near where the slide occurred. That is not exceptionally heavy rain for an area that probably averages 80" of precip a year.

 

October, November, and December 2012 all had 11-12" of rain there. So did March 2012. February 2012 had 12" of rain there and February 21, 2012 alone had over 4". No catastrophic slides those months.

 

Point is, you usually see these types of massive landslides after a major pineapple express and regional flood event. This month has not had that.

 

It's been wet, but the amount of rain this month doesn't scream "catastrophic mass movement", from a climo perspective. These things sometimes just go when they go.

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Whatever.    Major enough to cause a huge problem.   

 

And its been an extremely wet March which followed a very wet February.  That is just a fact.     I have had 17 inches of rain here this month and almost 30 inches in the last 6 weeks.    And that area has probably been even wetter since its in the favored c-zone location.

Over 9" of rain ehre so far this month.

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Another frosty morning. 4th in a row. Its nice after the ridiculously mild start to the month we had.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Enjoy the next couple of days. Starting Tuesday it looks like it is going to rain for about two weeks.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yep, just give it another week.

 

 

I don't see much 38-degree rain.

 

Plenty of rain... but with the trough mostly offshore it should be the 55-degree variety.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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so more like the muggy rain or how and if do we get it?

 

 

Starting Tuesday... going forever.    

 

Probably not humid... just mild and wet.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We certainly need 2 more weeks of rain! Wettest March ever very likely. The endless rain coming is going to make clean up even worse. But we really need more rain right?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We certainly need 2 more weeks of rain! Wettest March ever very likely. The endless rain coming is going to make clean up even worse. But we really need more rain right?

I don't think anyone is saying we need more rain (although some mountain snow wouldn't be a bad thing).

 

People are just reporting what the models are showing. You know, like you do. ;)

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I don't think anyone is saying we need more rain (although some mountain snow wouldn't be a bad thing).

 

People are just reporting what the models are showing. You know, like you do. ;)

 

 

I know they are just reporting it now... some people on here claimed earlier that we need much more precipitation.  

 

Not up here we don't.    Be nice to send it all into OR and CA where it would help... up here it will just cause more problems.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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-
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/163-march-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=22971
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/163-march-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=22985
 

[With specific emphasis.] 
 
.. Not to put a damper on your guys' enthusiasm where looking at, even appreciation of, the nicer conditions prevailing right now and over the past few days, in fact up and down the greater Coast. And if more in line with "BLi snowman's" either whether warning (?), or more general chagrin expressed along with others' above where looking more forward, … @ @
 
With my, here where I am more south looking at things perhaps a tad differently(with per my own view at least, my locations' more specific being on the, if granted more extreme, borderline south of the PNW), …
 
.. And so with this, for in fact at least a tad more rain and snow with the still more drought-like conditions still in place from here where I am south, ….
 
As enjoyable as things are, I have to root more for the nicer conditions at this point, to turn to wetter over the next week. 
 
This (all.) said, with more substantively where looking more ahead from this point and into next week, and if again, mainly at from here where I am south, that what I'm expecting to occur (Or perhaps, in the light of the drought, hoping for.) / most liking a bit more quickly than the models might showis that with main colder air's - having moved and spread steadily more southward over the past two weeks or so, beginning to regress back more northward daily from here forward more, and with this idea, warmer and wetter air's being able to migrate, more northand potentially into the path of cold - if receding, at the same time moving more assertively east, … some amount of rain, even snow, more, where looking more fully south, sooner; .. this with then, some amount more of each, more northward, more subsequently.
 
.. This with where otherwise looking more north of where I am, things unfolding where looking at what I've suggested here above more specifically regarding main colder air's both movement together with distribution, more precip. still even, relative, to these main possibilities as I see them where looking more at CA's both north and south.

---
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how can you tell if its going to be muggy or not on the models say the gfs?

 

 

It won't be muggy.   

 

850mb temps are way too low.   It will be a bunch of 50-55 degree rain.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z GFS is more troughy next weekend which would be a good thing.    Better to be deep inside a trough rather than on the eastern edge with a big ridge to the east and moisture training over us for days.

 

The last 3 days have been awesome... even with chilly air aloft.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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