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Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?


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There is little question things look primed for a major El Nino to rapidly develop in the coming weeks due a major subsurface Kelvin wave racing eastward across the Equatorial Pacific.  

 

 

 

At The same time this Kelvin wave is being being reinforced by a horrible WWB currently taking place

 

 

 

 

When looking at these two factors in combination with a pretty major tanking of the SOI it is hard to be optimistic about our chances of escaping a significant warm ENSO event.  On the other hand the atmosphere has proven to be very hostile to potential El Ninos in recent years and there is some chance we could escape it.  In this case there is evidence the MJO will be entering a phase hostile to El Nino at about the same time the warm subsurface water tries to emerge off the coast of South America.  If the MJO forecasts are correct it's reasonably likely the AAM will turn negative later this month which would also be bad news for a developing El Nino.  All this having been said, I would have to conclude the chances for a significant El Nino later this years are about 70% to 80%.  We will know a lot more in a few weeks when that warm subsurface water breaks the surface in the eastern Equatorial Pacific.

 

If we have a significant El Nino next winter the chances are high the last half of the winter will be a total loss, but some El Ninos do feature some cold and snow chances early on.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Most El Ninos feature snow and cold chances, but most of them fall short of anything that could be considered very good. The bold ones are the years that were clearly extremely woeful for the entire region.

 

2009-10: Cold December with little snow, historic January/February torch

2006-07: A rare active and chilly El Nino

2004-05: Cold 1st half of January, otherwise a drought filled torch

2002-03: Historically mild, with arctic air relegated to late October

1997-98: Cold 1st half of January, torchy the rest of the time

1994-95: Active winter with a lot of torching but also with several brief cold/snow events

1991-92: Incredible torch that lasted through summer, with arctic air relegated to late October

1987-88: Chilly winter but lacking any major or defining event

1986-87: Total piece of crap, some flooding

1982-83: Total piece of crap, with tons of mild rain

1977-78: Active winter with some snow/cold events early on

1976-77: Historic drought, lots of fake cold

1972-73: Historic cold December period, a very rare strong El Nino

1969-70: Wet and active January, otherwise extremely dull

1968-69: Upper echelon cold/snow for the region, no winter since has been better

1965-66: Very active and chilly with a bunch of wet snow events

1963-64: Dull and awful

1958-59: Mild and active winter with a brief January arctic blast and several snowfalls

1957-58: Top tier torch that lasted through the summer

1953-54: Blockbuster January snowfalls

1952-53: Historic drought followed by all time historic mild/wet January

1951-52: Cold/snowy winter throughout

 

 

Since 1950, we've never gone more than 3 consecutive El Nino winters without a legitimately awful one for the entire region, like the bolded. 2004-05 was pretty close, to be fair, but it did feature more arctic air than many of our bad El Ninos have had through the decades. I think a mild and lackluster 2014-15 is a good call at this point, strictly from a historical climo standpoint.

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Most El Ninos feature snow and cold chances, but most of them fall short of anything that could be considered very good. The bold ones are the years that were clearly extremely woeful for the entire region.

 

 

 

Since 1950, we've never gone more than 3 consecutive El Nino winters without a legitimately awful one for the entire region, like the bolded. 2004-05 was pretty close, to be fair, but it did feature more arctic air than many of our bad El Ninos have had through the decades. I think a mild and lackluster 2014-15 is a good call at this point, strictly from a historical climo standpoint.

 

Very possible.  If the winter is set to be doomed we might as well go for a very strong Nino and get it over with.  The winters following those usually have at least one major blast such 1983-84, 1992-93, 1998-99, and 2003-04.

 

If we do avoid a Nino next winter the chances are decent the tendency we have seen for Arctic blasts this winter will carry into next winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Very possible.  If the winter is set to be doomed we might as well go for a very strong Nino and get it over with.  The winters following those usually have at least one major blast such 1983-84, 1992-93, 1998-99, ad 2003-04.

 

If we do avoid a Nino this winter the chances are decent the tendency we have seen for Arctic blasts this winter will carry into next winter.

 

I'd like to think that if we get an ugly Nino in 2014-15, we could get a good old fashioned cold/stormy La Nina in 2015-16.

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This thread makes me sad. :(

 

Not only will the NW likely see a torchy winter if we do indeed get a major El Nino next year. We will likely see a big spike in global temps too. Hopefully the unfavorable atmosphere can keep this thing at weak to moderate. I hate big El Ninos.

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This thread makes me sad. :(

 

Not only will the NW likely see a torchy winter if we do indeed get a major El Nino next year. We will likely see a big spike in global temps too. Hopefully the unfavorable atmosphere can keep this thing at weak to moderate. I hate big El Ninos.

Good thing we don't know how the weather will turn out.

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I really think we are going to have to live through a major Nino, but then we will have a multi-year Nina following it.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We are getting due not only for a mega winter, but also another region wide wind storm.

You're never "due" for anything when it comes to the climate system. The statistical hyperbole is everywhere and it blurs the line between conclusion and reality. It's such a convenient thought process, though, that folks still gravitate towards it.

 

It's way too early to be claiming 2014-15 will suck in the west, and/or that the tropical forcings/circulations will spike the global temperature. Heck, it's not even a given that we'll anything more than a weak El Niño. These questions will be answered in 4-5 months...it's much more complicated than ENSO = etc.

 

Take the 2002-03 El Niño vs the 2009-10 El Niño. Both nearly the same in terms of ONI, but far different in regards to the stratosphere (QBO/QTO/SAO), Solar, and the tropical circulations.

 

The 2002-03 El Niño did not register in the global temperature, the 2009-10 El Niño led to a large spike. They also were very different winters in the PNW. There are obvious reasons for the differences..there is no such thing as a "typical" El Niño, but I would say there are two breeds of Niño. I'll get into that later.

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I'm not sure what the causal mechanism is between El Nino and the split jet/warmer NW winters. Frankly I think we're in uncharted territory between the low solar, weird tropics, and warmer globe.

 

I wouldn't write off any winter based on the ENSO state. La Nina's were generally supposed to be cold and snowy for the Pacific Northwest, but 2 out of the last 3 didn't work out that way.

The globe has seen no net warming since 1998.

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I'm in the same camp. There is still lots of uncertainty.

 

I'm not in the same camp, winter winter go away!  :D

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1968-1969... 2006-2007

 

I think 1972-73 feels left out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This is good, Jim. I'm glad to see this topic. Everything is pointed in this direction with a couple of unknowns out there. I'd say 50-50.

 

I'm surprised you didn't ask about implications for our summer.

 

I would definitely be ok with a cooler summer than last year, especially late summer.

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Haha! I wanted to go there. I think we might be in for a hot summer. It's about that time.

 

Wasn't last summer pretty hot down that way?

 

It was Seattle's warmest on record too.

 

I know the "due" argument makes some members here start coughing up blood, we we certainly aren't due for a hot summer by any means.

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Wasn't last summer pretty hot down that way?

 

It was Seattle's warmest on record too.

 

I know the "due" argument makes some members here start coughing up blood, we we certainly aren't due for a hot summer by any means.

 

That hottest summer on record for Seattle is bogus IMO.  Collectively for the Puget Sound area it ended up 3rd or 4th which still seems odd since it was never that hot.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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As for this summer if we have a major Nino unfold like the one in 2009 I wouldn't rule out a hot one.  On the other had there have been many cool El Nino summers.

 

I think we will probably have a good idea of whether this potential Nino will emerge when the Kelvin wave surfaces in a month or so.  It may surface and collapse due to abnormally strong trade winds.  There is hope that could happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That hottest summer on record for Seattle is bogus IMO.  Collectively for the Puget Sound area it ended up 3rd or 4th which still seems odd since it was never that hot.

 

I actually agree. It was certainly a consistently warm summer, though. We are by no means due for that.

 

I would be ok with a summer with a couple big heat spikes but cooler than average weather overall.

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Technically NorCal is considered PNW, so…

 

 

We need an El Niño here in NorCal. This is the worst drought in history. Every drop donation would help. Rainy season is at an end in 24 days, and I'm scared thinking of California by the time the El Niño hits.

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Technically NorCal is considered PNW, so…

 

 

We need an El Niño here in NorCal. This is the worst drought in history. Every drop donation would help. Rainy season is at an end in 24 days, and I'm scared thinking of California by the time the El Niño hits.

 

The last thing in the world we need is another ENSO neutral year or a very weak La Nina or very weak El Nino. We would almost certainly face another drought year here in California without a strong ENSO event, especially if we still have a -PDO, +AMO pattern going into next season. In summary, this potential El Nino had not better fail for any reason.

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The last thing in the world we need is another ENSO neutral year or a very weak La Nina or very weak El Nino. We would almost certainly face another drought year here in California without a strong ENSO event, especially if we still have a -PDO, +AMO pattern going into next season. In summary, this potential El Nino had not better fail for any reason.

 

 

The odds are in your favor.  If we have a Nino I hope it's a big one so the pattern can reset and set us up for a Nina in 2015-16.  I would hate to see a half hearted Nino and then end up with two Nino winters in a row.

 

It would take some fancy maneuvering to avoid a Nino at this point, but Mother Nature has been pretty anti El Nino in recent years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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If we do go into a weak to moderate El Nino, I'm not sure there is a connection in the weather the year it starts. We would have a mild winter next year (there is about a 6 month lag in the maximum effect in the NW climate)...that is mild as a whole though.  I have seen good early winter Nino periods (late October thru early Dec as the wavelength of the long wave ridges is shorter).  Jan 1998 also saw a brief arctic air mass invade the nw (though it was very brief). Nina years following El Ninos tend to be cooler than average with a bunch of snow for the mountains ... but not necessarily lowland snow as the flow tends to be zonal.

 

Believe it or not, the best winters are ones like we just had (lots of blocking just offshore in neutral years).  The Seattle area just got unlucky this year (and Portland to Eugene got lucky). We did have several arctic fronts get into the Pacific NW.

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It would be odd to start a major El Nino in March.  These like to start in the late summer of fall.  If nino comes early (like in the next month or two)  and the Pac heat gets radiated out by fall, I do wonder if it will make next winter more neutral in nature. So much is unknown.  We have history of SOI and some of El Nino, but the really wired world we live in - like continuous subsurface Pac temperatures for example -- is fairly recent in a more historical context.

 

Another thing - until now (I'm not sure about the current state of the coupled models) the spring forecast was know as the "Spring barrier".  Forecasts of Pac SST have no skill from about Feb - May.  It will be interesting to see how this forecast works out.

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I'm surprised you didn't ask about implications for our summer.

 

I would definitely be ok with a cooler summer than last year, especially late summer.

 

It will be a cooler summer this year, most of the PNW had one of the hottest summers in 2013, likely won't average nearly as warm. A few locations like Medford and Roseburg had the record hottest even.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It would be odd to start a major El Nino in March.  These like to start in the late summer of fall.  If nino comes early (like in the next month or two)  and the Pac heat gets radiated out by fall, I do wonder if it will make next winter more neutral in nature. So much is unknown.  We have history of SOI and some of El Nino, but the really wired world we live in - like continuous subsurface Pac temperatures for example -- is fairly recent in a more historical context.

 

Another thing - until now (I'm not sure about the current state of the coupled models) the spring forecast was know as the "Spring barrier".  Forecasts of Pac SST have no skill from about Feb - May.  It will be interesting to see how this forecast works out.

 

You are right about most El Ninos developing in the summer and fall rather than spring. I believe the very strong 1997-98 El Nino began to develop in the spring, but then strengthened dramatically throughout the summer and peaked in the late fall as most episodes do. If it did develop too early and became strong before summer, then I would be concerned about it possibly fizzling out before next winter.

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I guess we did have a few legit heat waves, but I thought they kind of under performed. I wouldn't say it was cool, but generally, it wasn't so bad. I'm always for a cool summer, though.

 

It's been hard for a good, strong El Nino to take off. I thought it was the PDO cycle maybe holding things up??? This could be the year. Jim's the expert. :-)

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It would be odd to start a major El Nino in March.  These like to start in the late summer of fall.  If nino comes early (like in the next month or two)  and the Pac heat gets radiated out by fall, I do wonder if it will make next winter more neutral in nature. So much is unknown.  We have history of SOI and some of El Nino, but the really wired world we live in - like continuous subsurface Pac temperatures for example -- is fairly recent in a more historical context.

 

Another thing - until now (I'm not sure about the current state of the coupled models) the spring forecast was know as the "Spring barrier".  Forecasts of Pac SST have no skill from about Feb - May.  It will be interesting to see how this forecast works out.

 

Usually strong El Ninos get going pretty early.  I think the way this Kelvin wave plays out will have to say about our prospects.  The ball is clearly in El Nino's court but the atmosphere appears it will be more Nina like later this month.  It will be a matter of whether the atmosphere is Ninaish when the Kelvin wave surfaces.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The CPC discussion contains two forecasts for Enso later this year - one from IRI and the other from the CFS-2 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf . Really like the forecast for a weak to moderate El Nino peaking late summer or early fall given the total heat content of the Pac (moderate) and the gradual transfer of energy eastward in the Kelvin waves.  We have to have one sooner or later...we are in the zone to get one-especially with the look of the Kelvin wave activity in the Pacific, the rather significant westerly wind bursts, and the gradual basin wide warming.   If the models are correct (remember the spring barrier mentioned above), It looks to me that this year in the NW could be similar to what we saw in 2006 or 2009 (not the big one of 97-98). Speculation on my part would be (a normal to warmer than normal and normally dry summer, an active start to fall in late Oct-right after Thanksgiving, with maybe some local PSCZ zone (marginal and not widespread) snow and good mountain snow early, then a very mild and boring mid winter period from the first or second week of Dec thru the first half of Feb or longer).  I give this forecast based on what happened during the weak to moderate El Nino s we saw in 06 and 09. This accounts for the -PDO we are likely in. A mild, cloudy, drizzly winter with high snow levels and a continuous stream of splitting fronts with ridging somewhere in the NW.  

 

Interesting things to talk about in an El Nino in the NW...big waves on the coast (some of the biggest are swell from decaying systems as they split on the west coast), not a lot of snow below 3500 to 4000 ft in the mtns, and if I remember correctly - some nice 50+ weather days in the mid winter with low power bills!  (Glass half full --- huh!) 

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I forgot to mention that I have seen some studies (not sure if they are published at this time) that indicate that there is a 6 to 8 month lag time between the peak Nino 3.5 temps and the atmospheric response along the west coast. This would account for the warmer mid-late winter periods in the NW during El Nino years and the best chance for mid to late winter rains in the south and SW as a strong Aleutian low develops in the mean and the jet axis shifts down into the sw. (The active area of the jet can be se of southern CA though .. leaving them still in the dry - hence the bimodal impact of El Nino on southern CA rainfall).

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I think the reason why some El Niños gave below-normal precipitation to California was because of the location of the warm waters. If the waters near So. America are slightly [cooler]* compared to the rest of the equatorial Niño waters then the U.S. west coast will instead receive more high-pressure than low-pressure systems. This can happen if warm waters were pushed to So. America due to strong wind bursts, but the waters dangled back and forth between the So. American coast and the El Niño 3.4 region. However, if warm waters are jammed far in, such as the El Niño of '97-'98, then the West Coast will experience above-normal precipitation.

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