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What's Up With The Solar Activity Lately?


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http://www.spaceweather.com

 

 

 

 

 

SOLAR MINIMUM DEEPENS: The solar cycle is at low ebb. Today marks the 208th day in 2018 that the sun has been without spots, doubling the number of spotless days in 2017. The count won't be able to double again in 2019; there aren't enough days in the year! Nevertheless, we can expect a further deepening of Solar Minimum in the year ahead with, literally, hundreds of spotless days to come. Stay tuned for extra cosmic rays, long-lasting holes in the sun's atmosphere, and strangely pink auroras.  Free: Aurora Alerts.

 

 

 

 


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  • 4 months later...

No doubt our sun is at play with our weather this year. What does it bode for the coming winter of 2019-2020?

 

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Regular solar observers have noticed that since mid-2016, the Sun has occasionally been devoid of sunspots. These spotless disks will gradually become a familiar feature as the solar cycle is heading for its next minimum, currently expected by the end of this decade.

 

The number of spotless days can vary significantly from one solar cycle transit to another. For example, during the previous minimum (around 2008), no less than 817 spotless days were recorded, whereas the minimum period leading into solar cycle 23 (around 1996) counted only 309 such blemishless days.

Royal Observatory, Belgium

 

http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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So it looks like they are anticipating 25 to be around the same as 24?

Yeah, looks like it. Will be interesting to see what happens once these last few SC24 polarity spots blow their loads.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Sunspot number: 0

What is the sunspot number?

Updated 05 Jun 2019

 

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 17 days

2019 total: 91 days (58%)

 

IMG_3748.GIF

 

Solar scientists say we've reached Minimum.

Well, zero spots, yeah. We'll see how long this stretch goes...or the next.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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  • 1 month later...

NASA's Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

 

IMG_3797.PNG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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NASA's Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

 

attachicon.gifIMG_3797.PNG

If this comes to fruition, I wonder what the economic impacts are going to be. It will be interesting to watch the markets and see what happens in the energy sector around the world. Now would be a good time to invest in salt commodities and other consumable commodities that are going to be in high demand during a cooler era. 

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Now you're getting the picture.

If the cold gets as deep as they predict, the Ag belt will slip south. We'll be importing more from nations to our south. Tropical nations could be changed into agricultural powerhouses. The southern US and Southern Hemisphere will see immigration pick up as anyone with the means, will haul it south. And manufacturing that's in the northern states may find itself needing to relocate.

 

This won't happen overnight, but go back and read up on how Europe changed in the Little Ice Age. The Rennaisance occurred in Southern Europe. Northern Rennaisance productivity existed but was overshadowed by the south. The Enlightenment was an outgrowth of society needing to meet its peoples needs. Kingship ended. America was founded.

 

Yeah, it's going to change. Weather is weather. Climate is history.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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  • 3 weeks later...

If NASA is right. It will be an interesting time.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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  • 2 months later...

Hard to know what to make of this. The 677nm (magnetic red from solar surface, associated w/ spots and other disturbances) looks pretty low right now on SORCE, but this could also be a result of radiometer degradation, given the fuzziness lately. Question is if the decline is accurate or not?

 

http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/sorce_solstice_ssi_high_res/

 

LSQ6r34.png

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We have a subforum for solar minimum stuff - maybe a write up on why this number matters would help.

The 10.7cm radio flux is the more ideal measurement of overall solar activity levels, especially during solar minimum when sunspots are often unable to form. It picks up phenomena such as prominences, etc, where as the sunspot count does not do so. Numbers at/below 70 are considered very low..solar minimum levels. Mid-60’s are extremely low..quite infrequent even in deep solar minima.

 

There is a seasonal cycle in the raw (“measured”) data due to the Earth’s elliptical orbit around the Sun (the measured numbers will therefore read slightly higher in the winter, when Earth is closer to the Sun, and lower in the summer, when Earth is farther from the Sun).

 

The “adjusted” data (readings tuned as if R = one astronomical unit, which is 149.6 million km, or the distance from the center of the Earth to the center of the Sun) accounts for this cycle, so it’s a more objective reference for actual activity levels than the raw/measured data. Right now, the raw data reads a bit higher than the adjusted data, since Earth is less than 1AU from the Sun at this time of year.

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Hard to know what to make of this. The 677nm (magnetic red from solar surface, associated w/ spots and other disturbances) looks pretty low right now on SORCE, but this could also be a result of radiometer degradation, given the fuzziness lately. Question is if the decline is accurate or not?

 

http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/sorce_solstice_ssi_high_res/

 

LSQ6r34.png

If so, easily lowest of our lifetimes is a fair assertion, correct?

 

Even if its fuzzy, close to lowest is still super impressive.

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I don't think anyone will argue much that we are entering a low solar period that will last several decades. If it's as low as it was 200 years ago, then it's going to be quite cold and farmers are in for a dificult time. As consumers, food will get quite expensive.

 

"...all indications are that the upcoming solar minimum may be even quieter than the last one which was the deepest in nearly a century. In addition, there are now forecasts that the next solar cycle, #25, will be the weakest in more than 200 years. The current solar cycle, #24, has been the weakest with the fewest sunspots since solar cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Solar cycle 24 continues a recent trend of weakening solar cycles which began with solar cycle 21 that peaked around 1980 and if the latest forecasts are correct, that trend will continue for at least another decade or so."

https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2019/6/19/1030-am-now-entering-a-deep-solar-minimum-and-the-latest-forecast-for-solar-cycle-25-suggests-it-may-be-the-weakest-cycle-in-200-years

 

IMG_3982.PNG

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Interesting interview

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=

 

From Abstract of Paper by Valentina Zharkova -

We verify the extrapolated activity curve by the pre-telescope observations of large sunspots with naked eye, by comparing the observed and simulated butterfly diagrams for Maunder Minimum (MM), by a maximum of the terrestrial temperature and extremely intense terrestrial auroras seen in the past grand cycle occurred in 14-16 centuries. We confirm the occurrence of upcoming Modern grand minimum in 2020-2053, which will have a shorter duration (3 cycles) and, thus, higher solar activity compared to MM. We argue that Sporer minimum (1450-1550) derived from the increased abundances of isotopes 14C and 10Be is likely produced by a strong increase of the terrestrial background radiation caused by the galactic cosmic rays of powerful supernovae.

 

https://watchers.news/2018/03/30/study-suggests-modern-grand-solar-minimum-in-2020-2053/

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Interesting interview

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=

From Abstract of Paper by Valentina Zharkova -

We verify the extrapolated activity curve by the pre-telescope observations of large sunspots with naked eye, by comparing the observed and simulated butterfly diagrams for Maunder Minimum (MM), by a maximum of the terrestrial temperature and extremely intense terrestrial auroras seen in the past grand cycle occurred in 14-16 centuries. We confirm the occurrence of upcoming Modern grand minimum in 2020-2053, which will have a shorter duration (3 cycles) and, thus, higher solar activity compared to MM. We argue that Sporer minimum (1450-1550) derived from the increased abundances of isotopes 14C and 10Be is likely produced by a strong increase of the terrestrial background radiation caused by the galactic cosmic rays of powerful supernovae.

https://watchers.news/2018/03/30/study-suggests-modern-grand-solar-minimum-in-2020-2053/

It will be interesting if valentine is right or if Rolf Witzsche turns our right different conclusions from the both.Here is Rolf site http://www.ice-age-ahead-iaa.ca/
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