Jump to content
The Weather Forums

What's Up With The Solar Activity Lately?


Recommended Posts

Scientists have now got access to the most detailed real-time images of the Sun with a new upgrade to the world's highest-resolution solar telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory.The new capabilities will allow the  researchers to study a wider view of solar activity as it's actually happening. With this upgrade now, we'll be able to watch things like massive sunspots stretching some 32,000 kilometers wide (about 20,000 miles) in the Sun's photo-sphere in real-time, whereas previously we could only see a narrower portion of the event without distortion.


  • Like 1

Claire Anderson

http://www.weathermate.net

San Francisco, CA, USA

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 4 weeks later...
  • Replies 154
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

The 10.7cm radio flux is the more ideal measurement of overall solar activity levels, especially during solar minimum when sunspots are often unable to form. It picks up phenomena such as prominences,

NASA's Prediction of Solar Cycle 25  

Sunspot number: 0 What is the sunspot number? Updated 05 Jun 2019   Spotless Days Current Stretch: 17 days 2019 total: 91 days (58%)     Solar scientists say we've reached Minimum. Well, zero spot

Posted Images

What does the last century look like? 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites

What does the last century look like?

Much of the 20th century featured a grand maximum with very high numbers of sunspots and strong solar winds. Very possible it was largely responsible for the warming seen the second half of the century.

 

An interesting side note to this is that global warming caused by the grand maximum (if it was caused by that) would also account for much of the atmospheric CO2 increase as warmer ocean temperatures released CO2 that was bound up in the sea water.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Much of the 20th century featured a grand maximum with very high numbers of sunspots and strong solar winds. Very possible it was largely responsible for the warming seen the second half of the century.

 

An interesting side note to this is that global warming caused by the grand maximum (if it was caused by that) would also account for much of the atmospheric CO2 increase as warmer ocean temperatures released CO2 that was bound up in the sea water.

Much of it could have been solar, but there must be something else at play here, because the warming from the 1690s to the 1940s was exceptional, more than can be explained by solar alone. Some research suggests it was greater than 1.5C.

 

There was clearly a monstrous shift in the global circulation(s) that began during the early 1700s, but as for what triggered it..who knows?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Much of it could have been solar, but there must be something else at play here, because the warming from the 1690s to the 1940s was exceptional, more than can be explained by solar alone. Some research suggests it was greater than 1.5C.

There was clearly a monstrous shift in the global circulation(s) that began during the early 1700s, but as for what triggered it..who knows?

Much of it could have been solar, but there must be something else at play here, because the warming from the 1690s to the 1940s was exceptional, more than can be explained by solar alone. Some research suggests it was greater than 1.5C.

There was clearly a monstrous shift in the global circulation(s) that began during the early 1700s, but as for what triggered it..who knows?

another one of many puzzles of climate that is still not peace togeather yet.
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

Looks like we may have entered a really good spotless period this time. Flux numbers are very low....the lowest yet for this cycle.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like we may have entered a really good spotless period this time. Flux numbers are very low....the lowest yet for this cycle.

On another note, how was your Winter out west???  We finally broke the 80+ day streak of 1" or less snowfall recorded during the Winter.  The last 1"+ snowfall we received was back on Dec 17th!

Link to post
Share on other sites

On another note, how was your Winter out west???  We finally broke the 80+ day streak of 1" or less snowfall recorded during the Winter.  The last 1"+ snowfall we received was back on Dec 17th!

Very solid winter out here in spite of my area not doing too well for snow. It was the coldest winter at least since 1992-93 and many areas had significant snowfall. Extreme NW Washington and SW BC had very close to a top tier winter with many locations receiving 50+ inches of snow. Overall I'm quite intrigued by the persistent blocking we saw over Alaska.

 

I'm really looking forward to the next 5 years or so. Could be a wild ride!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Very solid winter out here in spite of my area not doing too well for snow. It was the coldest winter at least since 1992-93 and many areas had significant snowfall. Extreme NW Washington and SW BC had very close to a top tier winter with many locations receiving 50+ inches of snow. Overall I'm quite intrigued by the persistent blocking we saw over Alaska.

 

I'm really looking forward to the next 5 years or so. Could be a wild ride!

Glad to hear!  I saw it coming when the cold pool was building in October in SW Canada.  Here's to the next solar minimum!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Big time spotless period now. Well over a week and the flux numbers are still tanked.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm very intrigued seeing a streak this long so long before solar minimum.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

From Spaceweather:

 

 

 

REALLY BLANK SUN: The sun has been blank (no sunspots) for 12 consecutive days.  If today ends without a sunspot, the number will increase to 13, matching the longest stretch of blank suns since April of 2010. This is yet another sign that the sunspot cycle is crashing toward a deep minimum expected in 2019-2020.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunspots reach a 7-year low!  Impressive 2 week stretch of a blank sun...it'll be interesting following the trends of the suns activity this year and what it may translate to the overall weather pattern.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm curious to see how the level of neutron flux will impact the global climate as this author compared our current levels to Solar Cycle 20 which causing global cooling in the late 1970's. 

 

To see the deep waters of the Arctic oceans cooling is very interesting.  Great finds!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Much off the information on this site is over my head but I think many of you more scientific climate types will enjoy this.

 

Tons of information and they've been tracking information for 7 yrs.

The crazy thing is Landscheidt was a German astrologer and amateur climatologist. He predicted sunspot minima after 1990 with a stronger minimum and more intense cold peaking in 2030. He died in 2004. Enjoy a stroll through the pages.

 

I don't know if this is of use or not. Just found it interesting.

 

http://www.landscheidt.info

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

Sheesh, talk about an active sun all of a sudden!  Haven't seen this in a very long time.

 

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2017/03apr17/hmi200.gif

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 month later...

The sun has gone quiet again...

 

 

 

SUNSPOT COUNTS ARE PLUMMETING: Today marks the 33rd day in 2017 that the sun has been blank--no sunspots. This exceeds the total number of spotless days in all of 2016 (32). The accelerating pace of spotlessness is a sign that Solar Minimum is approaching. Forecasters expect the sunspot cycle, which swings like a pendulum between high and low sunspot number every ~11 years, to reach its nadir in 2019-2020. Stay tuned for more blank suns.
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...

This was published in 2015, however it has some interesting things to say on long term cooling from a grand solar Minimum.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535

 

However, the recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the grand solar maximum may be at an end1. Using past variations of solar activity measured by cosmogenic isotope abundance changes, analogue forecasts for possible future solar output have been calculated. An 8% chance of a return to Maunder Minimum-like conditions within the next 40 years was estimated in 2010 (ref. 2). The decline in solar activity has continued, to the time of writing, and is faster than any other such decline in the 9,300 years covered by the cosmogenic isotope data1. If this recent rate of decline is added to the analysis, the 8% probability estimate is now raised to between 15 and 20%.

  • Like 2

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 6 months later...
  • 1 month later...

Very quiet sun these days. It's been blank for 52% of the days this year so far.

 

The flux numbers are really low now.  The x-ray flux has dropped below A0.0 and the 10.7 flux has dropped to 67.  We should still be at least a year from solar minimum so this will be a good one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm reading more and more solar reports with long term cooling in the picture.

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites

Found this

 

“The radiation environment is worsening more rapidly than previously estimated. Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the Space Age.”

 

– Nathan Schwadron, Ph.D., Physicist, Univ. of New Hampshire

  • Like 2

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 month later...

Today's write-up on Spaceweather.com is probably one of the more interesting ones I've read over the past year or so.  You have to wonder why NASA is planning a mission to touch the sun this summer (Solar Probe Plus) https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-to-make-announcement-about-first-mission-to-touch-sun.  It is my opinion, the gov't likely knows that the sun is going to be a big contributor in our climate for decades to come.

 

 

 

"Solar cycle 24 is declining more quickly than forecast," stated NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center on April 26th. This plot shows observed sunspot numbers in blue vs. the official forecast in red:

http://spaceweather.com/images2018/30apr18/progression_strip.png

"The smoothed, predicted sunspot number for April-May 2018 is about 15," says NOAA. "However, the actual monthly values have been lower."

"Official" forecasts of the solar cycle come from NOAA's Solar Cycle Prediction Panel–a group of experts from NOAA, NASA, the US Air Force, universities and other research organizations. They have been convening at intervals since 1989 to predict the timing and intensity of Solar Max. The problem is, no one really knows how to predict the solar cycle. The most recent iteration of the panel in 2006-2008 compared 54 different methods ranging from empirical extrapolations of historical data to cutting-edge supercomputer models of the sun's magnetic dynamo. None fully described what is happening now.

 

 

SUNSPOTS VANISHING FASTER THAN EXPECTED: continued...

 

 

It's important to note that solar minimum is a normal part of the sunspot cycle. Sunspots have been disappearing (or nearly so) every ~11 years since 1843 when German astronomer Samuel Heinrich Schwabe discovered the periodic nature of solar activity. Sometimes they go away for decades, as happened during the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century.  We've seen it all before. Or have we….?

 

 

http://spaceweather.com/images2018/01may18/sunspotcycle2_strip.png

 

Researchers are keeping a wary eye on the sun now because of what happened the last time sunspots disappeared. The solar minimum of 2008-2009 was unusually deep. The sun set Space Age records for low sunspot number, weak solar wind, and depressed solar irradiance. When the sun finally woke up a few years later, it seemed to have "solar minimum hangover." The bounce-back Solar Max of 2012-2015 was the weakest solar maximum of the Space Age, prompting some to wonder if solar activity is entering a  phase of sustained quiet. The faster-than-expected decline of the sunspot cycle now may support that idea.

 

Newcomers to the field are often surprised to learn that a lot happens during solar minimum: The sun dims, albeit slightly. NASA recently launched a new sensor (TSIS-1) to the International Space Station to monitor this effect. With less extreme UV radiation coming from the sun, Earth's upper atmosphere cools and shrinks. This allows space junk to accumulate in low Earth orbit.

http://spaceweather.com/images2018/01may18/neutrons_strip.pngAbove: A neutron bubble chamber in an airplane 35,000 feet above Greenland. Spaceweather.com and Earth to Sky Calculus are flying these sensors to measure aviation radiation during solar minimum. [more]

.

The most important change, however, could be the increase in cosmic rays. Flagging solar wind pressure during solar minimum allows cosmic rays from deep space to penetrate the inner solar system. Right now, space weather balloons and NASA spacecraft are measuring an uptick in radiation due to this effect. Cosmic rays may alter the chemistry of Earth's upper atmosphere, trigger lightning, and seed clouds.

 

Air travelers are affected, too. It is well known that cosmic rays penetrate airplanes. Passengers on long commercial flights receive doses similar to dental X-rays during a single trip, while pilots have been classified as occupational radiation workers by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Ongoing measurements by Spaceweather.com and Earth to Sky Calculus show that dose rates at cruising altitudes of 35,000 feet are currently ~40 times greater than on the ground below, values which could increase as the solar cycle wanes.

 

Solar minimum is just getting started. Stay tuned for updates.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 months later...

Russian astrophysicist is holding with his long held global cooling stance.

He comes under fire all the time, but Abdussamatov sticks to the science as he analyzes it..

 

Good site to get his perspective.

 

https://infiniteunknown.net/tag/habibullo-abdussamatov/

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

As of Sept. 2nd the Sun has been blank 133 days.

 

IMG_3346.GIF

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...

The mods can feel free to move this thread, but I wanted to at least end up with a link to it here...

 

I was a bit disappointed to see the February monthly sunspot number was 102 which is the highest yet for this cycle. Looking at past cycles it's very normal for most cycles to have a double peak, but the first peak is almost always higher than the second one. We are currently in the second peak...at least it appears we are. It is interesting to note the AP index has been pretty low and is currently only at 4 in spite of sunspot and flux numbers being quite high.

 

Just wondering what some of the people on here that know more about this than me think. Does anyone have a link to a site which shows historic data for the AP index?

4 1/2 years ago Snow posted this first post. Sunspots were high.

 

If you get a chance, go back and scroll through this thread and the observations of the sun to this current blank sun and unusual weather.

 

I miss Snow. ❤️

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 months later...

http://www.spaceweather.com

 

 

 

 

 

SOLAR MINIMUM DEEPENS: The solar cycle is at low ebb. Today marks the 208th day in 2018 that the sun has been without spots, doubling the number of spotless days in 2017. The count won't be able to double again in 2019; there aren't enough days in the year! Nevertheless, we can expect a further deepening of Solar Minimum in the year ahead with, literally, hundreds of spotless days to come. Stay tuned for extra cosmic rays, long-lasting holes in the sun's atmosphere, and strangely pink auroras.  Free: Aurora Alerts.

 

 

 

 


progression_strip.png?w=676
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 4 months later...

No doubt our sun is at play with our weather this year. What does it bode for the coming winter of 2019-2020?

 

_______________

Regular solar observers have noticed that since mid-2016, the Sun has occasionally been devoid of sunspots. These spotless disks will gradually become a familiar feature as the solar cycle is heading for its next minimum, currently expected by the end of this decade.

 

The number of spotless days can vary significantly from one solar cycle transit to another. For example, during the previous minimum (around 2008), no less than 817 spotless days were recorded, whereas the minimum period leading into solar cycle 23 (around 1996) counted only 309 such blemishless days.

Royal Observatory, Belgium

 

http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites

So it looks like they are anticipating 25 to be around the same as 24?

Yeah, looks like it. Will be interesting to see what happens once these last few SC24 polarity spots blow their loads.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 4 weeks later...

Sunspot number: 0

What is the sunspot number?

Updated 05 Jun 2019

 

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 17 days

2019 total: 91 days (58%)

 

IMG_3748.GIF

 

Solar scientists say we've reached Minimum.

Well, zero spots, yeah. We'll see how long this stretch goes...or the next.

  • Like 3

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 month later...

NASA's Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

 

IMG_3797.PNG

  • Like 3

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

NASA's Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

 

attachicon.gifIMG_3797.PNG

If this comes to fruition, I wonder what the economic impacts are going to be. It will be interesting to watch the markets and see what happens in the energy sector around the world. Now would be a good time to invest in salt commodities and other consumable commodities that are going to be in high demand during a cooler era. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Now you're getting the picture.

If the cold gets as deep as they predict, the Ag belt will slip south. We'll be importing more from nations to our south. Tropical nations could be changed into agricultural powerhouses. The southern US and Southern Hemisphere will see immigration pick up as anyone with the means, will haul it south. And manufacturing that's in the northern states may find itself needing to relocate.

 

This won't happen overnight, but go back and read up on how Europe changed in the Little Ice Age. The Rennaisance occurred in Southern Europe. Northern Rennaisance productivity existed but was overshadowed by the south. The Enlightenment was an outgrowth of society needing to meet its peoples needs. Kingship ended. America was founded.

 

Yeah, it's going to change. Weather is weather. Climate is history.

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...

If NASA is right. It will be an interesting time.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 months later...

Hard to know what to make of this. The 677nm (magnetic red from solar surface, associated w/ spots and other disturbances) looks pretty low right now on SORCE, but this could also be a result of radiometer degradation, given the fuzziness lately. Question is if the decline is accurate or not?

 

http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/sorce_solstice_ssi_high_res/

 

LSQ6r34.png

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...