February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Esquimalt]

AAF0CC69-B16E-45BB-9DB1-4D5E81335DB2.png

What are your Vancouver Island predictions for the next couple of days?   Here are mine: 

 

Nanaimo: 5-10 cm

Duncan: 3-7 cm

Victoria: 2-5 cm

[HighlandExperience]

I hope it snows at my house.

 

[ShawniganLake]

What are your Vancouver Island predictions for the next couple of days? Here are mine:

 

Nanaimo: 5-10 cm

Duncan: 3-7 cm

Victoria: 2-5 cm

Sounds reasonable. I think someone gets 6”, most likely somewhere Nanaimo to Comox.

 

For MBY, I’m thinking 1-3”.

[ShawniganLake]

Wednesday nights system is looking very snowy for most everyone on the Euro.

[Jesse]

I hope it snows at my house.

 

We should start a poll to see who else feels this way.

[HighlandExperience]

Wednesday nights system is looking very snowy for most everyone on the Euro.

 

might be the big show

[Jbolin]

We should start a poll to see who else feels this way.

Three out of Five Dewey's approve 

[ShawniganLake]

might be the big show

[MossMan]

70781A67-F24D-4F88-8324-8B461B2F182F.png

Beautiful!

[wxmet]

Wednesday system is definitely more interesting. With cold air already in place, isentropic lift generated snowfall usually leads to better results. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I just submitted my final forecast in the contest thread. This is what I said. -

 

 

Here's my final forecast. I think the Arctic Front is going to dump more snow than expected. Upwards of 4 to 6 inches in even the lowest elevations. Solid snow cover will keep highs close to freezing on Monday. Then another round on Tuesday night and Wednesday with the BC slider. Good luck to all in the contest and may the best meteorologist win!

 

 

KSEA

 

Sun: 38/26

Mon: 34/23

Tue: 39/26

Wed: 40/33

 

 

KPDX

 

Sun: 42/27

Mon: 33/18

Tue: 40/27

Wed: 37/29

[seattleweatherguy]

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

750 PM PST Fri Feb 16 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...Windy conditions and heavy mountain snow are expected

Saturday as a deepening surface low tracks southeast through the

region. A modified arctic cold front will move southward through

Western Washington Sunday, bringing the possibility of lowland snow

and strong winds. Dry conditions are expected from late Sunday

through Tuesday with cold temperatures remaining in place. Another

system could slide in from the northwest around next Wednesday or

Thursday.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...Entering into a very narrow 5-hour period with no

headlines in effect...living up to the cliched calm before the

storm. Current radar shows some shower activity...mainly relegated

to an area north of Admiralty Inlet and Everett and appears somewhat

convergence zone-ish in nature. There is another...far weaker

looking...convergence zone that seems to be fizzling out along the

King/Snohomish county line. So take a deep breath now because things

are about to get interesting.

 

On Saturday, a deepening low pressure center will move southeast

down Vancouver Island, then track east near Vancouver B.C. and

continue deepening as it moves to northeast Washington. Deepening

lows typically come with more lift and greater impact.

This...combined with a large swath of warm advection lift preceding

the low and northwest flow aloft also being great for enhancing

orographic lift will result in impressive snowfall totals over the

Cascades, including the main highway passes. The inherited Winter

Storm Warning looks to cover this well and will remain unaltered

this evening. Nearly two feet of snow is forecast at the passes in

24 hours. Avalanche danger will be elevated given the the heavy

amount of snow and strong wind in exposed locales.

 

Winds will be another factor as southwest gradients will really pick

up by mid-day Saturday. Models bring the HQM-SEA gradient to around

+4 to +4.5 mb, and the UIL-BLI gradient should reach near +5 mb

around mid-day Saturday. MOS data persists in bringing wind speeds

up to around 30 knots throughout the south Sound and Seattle/Tacoma

area...with gusts up to 45-50 mph entirely possible. Further north,

a strong westerly surge is expected through the Strait during the

afternoon. NW flow aloft favors such surges impinging on land areas

on the U.S. side of the Strait and the Admiralty Inlet area. All of

that being said...wind advisories are up for the aforementioned

areas and again...given consistent data...there appears to be no

reason for any alteration to these headlines this evening.

 

In the wake of the exiting low, a cold front will enter Western

Washington Sunday morning, aided by strong Fraser Outflow wind. The

Bellingham to Williams Lake gradient could exceed -20 mb on Sunday

morning, making this a strong outflow event. As 00Z data continues

to come in...will begin to weigh the need for additional headlines

to cover this feature in time for their inclusion in the morning

forecast package. This combination in addition to cold air aloft

will result in low-level convergence near the frontal boundary and

some instability which could support snow showers as the front moves

south. On average up and down the I-5 corridor, the official

forecast has about 1 inch of snow centered around Sunday morning. In

reality, some places may see more while others may see none.

 

The Port Angeles area appears to be most likely to get snow, given

northeast wind upsloping along the north-facing side of the Olympic

Mtns. The official forecast has 1 inch of snow near the water there,

but 3-6 inches above 500 feet along the Strait.

 

With all of the cold, dry continental air pouring out from the

interior of B.C., the air mass will dry out quickly later Sunday,

and the last showers will end over the Cascades on Sunday night.

Coldest air mass of the winter is expected, with Monday night being

the coldest resulting in what should be a widespread hard freeze.

Haner/SMR

 

.LONG TERM...From Previous Discussion...Northwest flow aloft will

continue from Tuesday through next Friday, keeping temps below

normal. A system will dive southeast around Wednesday or Thursday.

The air mass will moderate a bit as clouds and precip spread in, and

weak onshore flow develops. Still, a rain/snow mix is forecast over

the lowlands. QPF is modest, so only minor snow accumulation is

expected on higher hills near the Cascades. Haner

 

&&

[seattleweatherguy]

This is my forecast

 

Sea 

 

Sunday 37/30. 1.5 inches snow

Monday 33/22

Tuesday 36/25

Wed. 37/30 

 

PDX

 

Sunday 38/31 1 inch snow

Monday 34/25

Tuesday 36/29

Wed. 38/32

[ShawniganLake]

Day 10. Just cause

 

[HighlandExperience]

Exciting week

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 10. Just cause

 

B94ABC3D-C1B2-4686-B946-D392871D26DA.png

 

Regional event.  Looks like this will be one to remember.

 

Can someone smarter than me take a guess as to when the biggest/quickest temp drop will reach Seattle and then Portland?  I want to try to be outside as the temps crash.

[jaya]

According to the WRF the south Sound does better than the north Sound.  Not sure if I buy it or not but that's what it shows.  Everyone has equal chances with this.

I'm not sure I like the details in any of the models. Almost anything can happen.

 

I think big picture instead of mesoscale - and worry about the mesoscale a few hours out.

 

Let's keep an eye on the pressure gradients. If KOTH-KSEA remains strongly southerly, CYWL-KBLI strongly northerly, upper low comes over the area, surface and 850 mb low comes onshore near KHQM and into the south interior, I can't see that someone in W WA doesn't do rather well (2-4 with local 4-6) in the snowfall amount with this arctic front.  I do tend to think big, so maybe I'm over forecasting, but I do see potential.

 

Now my bet:

 

We have rather cold air aloft coming in late Sat night into Sunday. Above 300-500 ft above MSL, I can see snow ratios somewhat better than 10-1 (15 to 1 maybe), especially toward the tail end of the event.

 

Who will get the snow?  Well, the models typically err in bringing the cold air southward from the Fraser too quickly. I can see it hanging up somewhere from Mt Vernon to N of Seattle for a while before pushing southward. This would focus snow most strongly over this area with the fluffiest snow midday to aftn Sunday away from the water.  Port Angeles will do very well as they get upslope and "lake effect.".  Still too much uncertainty on the track of the midweek system, but this has some potential to give more widespread accumulations in a warm advection pattern. Anywhere to the north of the track of the low could do well.  

 

As a snow lover, I see great potential.  Of course, living in the northwest means disappointment and forecasting snow around here is difficult. 

 

My bets at this point (based on model means and mainly gut):

 

Bellingham 3 inches (early)

High area south of Mt Vernon, 5 inches

KPAE:  5 inches

North Seattle 3 inches

Downtown Seattle 1 inch.

Seatac 1.5 inches

Olympia 1 inch

Areas to the east of Tacoma (Eatonville) 6 inches

Port Angeles 6 inches.

 

Low temperature Tuesday morning at KSEA: 19, KPAE 17, KBLI 15, KOLM 13

 

If it does not work out...oh well, another busted forecast ... but this one is just for fun.

 

jaya

[ShawniganLake]

[HighlandExperience]

86ED5998-F6D6-4B99-BD87-2F46C3D16B67.png

Looks similar to the WRF. Looks great for snowizard up into Issaquah stretching east towards TT location.

[Jbolin]

NWS AFD this morning is less than appreciable for those of us wanting snow. However they hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for the southern strait areas due to upslope flow (strait effect snow) where they expect significant accumulations. 

What I gathered was "nothing to see here, move along" 

[Geos]

6z NAM

 

[Geos]

NWS AFD this morning is less than appreciable for those of us wanting snow. However they hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for the southern strait areas due to upslope flow (strait effect snow) where they expect significant accumulations. 

What I gathered was "nothing to see here, move along"

 

Got a feeling more areas will see an advisory before the day is oit Sunday. Read Jaya's post from last night. His ideas make sense.

[ShawniganLake]

37F with mixed rain and snow here.

[Geos]

6Z GFS

 

[Brennan]

37F with mixed rain and snow here.

Seems early for that!

[ShawniganLake]

Seems early for that!

Snow level is below 1000ft across much of Vancouver Island this morning. This was in the forecast here. There should be a mild westerly push later today before the real cold comes tonight.

 

Higher elevations of Vancouver are getting heavy snow this morning

[Jbolin]

Snow level is below 1000ft across much of Vancouver Island this morning. This was in the forecast here. There should be a mild westerly push later today before the real cold comes tonight.

 

Higher elevations of Vancouver are getting heavy snow this morning 730B6682-CEEC-4C48-A420-ADC653CB540C.jpeg

SFU, right?

[ShawniganLake]

SFU, right?

Yes.

 

Sounds like the snow level is near a couple hundred feet along the northern area now.

[ShawniganLake]

4 years since Victoria has had a sub freezing high. Could Monday end the streak?

 

[Phil]

4 years since Victoria has had a sub freezing high. Could Monday end the streak?

 

7A3972F9-5C1D-44C2-8555-4CDA99B1D72A.png

Ain’t got nuttin’ on Tofino, though.

 

..2643 days? It’s amazing that’s even possible at that latitude.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Ain’t got nuttin’ on Tofino, though.

 

..2643 days? It’s amazing that’s even possible at that latitude.

 

Tofino is totally cutoff from any outflow sources.

Victoria is actually in the direct path of the Fraser river outflow. They will probably see 50mph NE winds tomorrow. But our arctic outflows have become pretty anemic from a surface cold perspective. They generally bump up above freezing quite easily during the day.

[Esquimalt]

Yeah it's annoying how rarely Victoria goes under freezing during the day.   Can't wait to get out of here!!

 

The Malahat did score some snow overnight.  Lots of places in Vancouver are getting it hard too.  

[Canadian guy]

Yeah it's annoying how rarely Victoria goes under freezing during the day. Can't wait to get out of here!!

 

The Malahat did score some snow overnight. Lots of places in Vancouver are getting it hard too.

It's been a very bad 4 year stretch.

[seattleweatherguy]

NWS AFD this morning is less than appreciable for those of us wanting snow. However they hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for the southern strait areas due to upslope flow (strait effect snow) where they expect significant accumulations.

 

What I gathered was "nothing to see here, move along"

Conservative as most models show some snow

[Blizzard777]

NWS AFD this morning is less than appreciable for those of us wanting snow. However they hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for the southern strait areas due to upslope flow (strait effect snow) where they expect significant accumulations. 

What I gathered was "nothing to see here, move along"

 

Just watched two of our local news media futurecast models (unsure what model they use) and didn’t show much precipitation if any over my area in Federal Way as the cold air arrives. Hoping for the surprise as well here. But first things first.....let the winds begin

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah it's annoying how rarely Victoria goes under freezing during the day. Can't wait to get out of here!!

 

The Malahat did score some snow overnight. Lots of places in Vancouver are getting it hard too.

Still some wet snow mixing in here, but nothing stuck at my elevation.

[Blizzard777]

Currently 43 degrees and temp trending down. Max wind so far 13 mph from the south and pretty good rain falling

[HighlandExperience]

12z icon looks pretty good. Also looks like we will have several chances for snowfall this week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS has backed off any snow chances next week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z icon looks pretty good. Also looks like we will have several chances for snowfall this week.

 

ICON is way colder than the GFS.