Jump to content

Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons


Recommended Posts

Though the CFS and Euro showing it turn negative by winter.

Your location wants it negative but here in MI I don't want it too negative.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting to see 2009 2010 had the lowest snow cover and we all know how cold that winter was. It's also interesting to see it being as one of my analogs.

And on the American side, we seem to be tracking right on top of 2014-15, yet another favored analog season. We even appear to have the recurving typhoons in the works like that year. This should be interesting. Anyone for a combo of those two?

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know this is a month old but it just seems so ridiculous

 

"Aug 20, 2018 · Farmer's Almanac predicts Michigan will have warmer winter than normal. ... The Old Farmer's Almanac and the National Weather Service alike are predicting a warmer winter for Michigan and the rest of the upper Midwest.."

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know this is a month old but it just seems so ridiculous

 

"Aug 20, 2018 · Farmer's Almanac predicts Michigan will have warmer winter than normal. ... The Old Farmer's Almanac and the National Weather Service alike are predicting a warmer winter for Michigan and the rest of the upper Midwest.."

Piece of advice......don't trust anyone w what they are showing for Winter outlooks. They are just predictions w pretty maps. Its fun to think what will happen, but MA Nature will do what it wants. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your location wants it negative but here in MI I don't want it too negative.

Yup..too negative=suppression.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Piece of advice......don't trust anyone w what they are showing for Winter outlooks. They are just predictions w pretty maps. Its fun to think what will happen, but MA Nature will do what it wants. ;)

The best and most detailed winter outlooks I have ever read came from amateurs/enthusiasts like us. It's just true. I hate to say that.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@ Jaster, I was drawn this morning to dive into some different wx maps and came across the Northern Hemisphere 2m temp maps and while I was flipping through, it struck me about the convo we had regarding how North America can brew up it's "own" cold.  Check out this 10-day animation.  A few things that stand out: 1) Siberia's slow start to Winter  2) Greenland is an Ice Box  3) Canada fills up with subzero cold

 

Like I said before, "if you build it, it will come"....we have several complementary factors supporting an ideal pattern for North America and/or Canada to brew up it's "own" source of frigid air this Winter.  Notice on the animation below, you can see Greenland's ice sheet spewing arctic air into the Archipelago region of Canada and seeding the country with early season cold.  Not only that, but the impacts of above normal snow cover across this region allows the cold to have "depth" (as you stated in your comments).  So we have clear evidence that the evolving pattern across N.A. is conducive to arctic air production.  I thought this would be helpful to help us understand why we do not necessarily need the Siberian Express to "seed" N. A. with cold.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know this is a month old but it just seems so ridiculous

 

"Aug 20, 2018 · Farmer's Almanac predicts Michigan will have warmer winter than normal. ... The Old Farmer's Almanac and the National Weather Service alike are predicting a warmer winter for Michigan and the rest of the upper Midwest.."

Plus with the blocking which the Farmers almanac doesn't take into account would be very strong. So if the Jet stream dipped far south as say Texas Michigan would be nailed with cold air. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I cringe when I see weather enthusiasts look at the CFSv2 12 run ensemble off of tropical tidbits and say It's going to be a warm winter without paying attention to anything else besides maybe the ENSO. Then they look at the jamstec and NAVGEM which are the only warm models. And then make a forecast saying that the USA is going to be really hot this winter. Then the average human Is caught off guard during the winter because their favorite meteorologist on youtube said it was going to be warm. Though that's just me and I don't like a warm winter  :lol:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro weeklies looking warmer and ridgier for October, which I do believe. However, it looks stormier for November, which would bring legit snowstorms to all of us in November. Maybe Tom or WeatherNerd can enlighten us more on that possibility but I'm skeptical.

 

It does show a legit cold shot around day 10 as well, basically echoing OP Euro, which would bring first freezes to those who haven't already seen them.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since '09-'10 is being used as one of the top analogs for this year, I noticed something very interesting when comparing the SST's across the N PAC.  During that season, we had a stout -PDO and plenty of cold water which supported the big trough in the SE that season.  On the flip side, this season, its almost an exact opposite and leads me to believe it acts as an anti-log.  Look at the major differences...

 

Dec 1st 2009...

 

anomnight.12.3.2009.gif

 

 

Jan 1st 2010...

 

anomnight.1.4.2010.gif

 

Feb 1st 2010...

 

anomnight.2.1.2010.gif

 

 

 

Compare the maps above to our current state of affairs...this is something I particularly pay attention to as we move along. 

 

anomnight.9.27.2018.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@ Jaster, I was drawn this morning to dive into some different wx maps and came across the Northern Hemisphere 2m temp maps and while I was flipping through, it struck me about the convo we had regarding how North America can brew up it's "own" cold.  Check out this 10-day animation.  A few things that stand out: 1) Siberia's slow start to Winter  2) Greenland is an Ice Box  3) Canada fills up with subzero cold

 

Like I said before, "if you build it, it will come"....we have several complementary factors supporting an ideal pattern for North America and/or Canada to brew up it's "own" source of frigid air this Winter.  Notice on the animation below, you can see Greenland's ice sheet spewing arctic air into the Archipelago region of Canada and seeding the country with early season cold.  Not only that, but the impacts of above normal snow cover across this region allows the cold to have "depth" (as you stated in your comments).  So we have clear evidence that the evolving pattern across N.A. is conducive to arctic air production.  I thought this would be helpful to help us understand why we do not necessarily need the Siberian Express to "seed" N. A. with cold.

Very cool map find! And wow, Greenland is quite the ice box, isn't it? Looks like the new North Pole, lol. It's clear that NA is the favored side for cold, but just as our side eventually gets cold when the opposite is true, they will get cold as well. It's still September, not even winter. I could see cold stretching from the Himilayan Mnts right across to Texas!

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since '09-'10 is being used as one of the top analogs for this year, I noticed something very interesting when comparing the SST's across the N PAC.  During that season, we had a stout -PDO and plenty of cold water which supported the big trough in the SE that season.  On the flip side, this season, its almost an exact opposite and leads me to believe it acts as an anti-log.  Look at the major differences...

 

Dec 1st 2009...

 

anomnight.12.3.2009.gif

 

 

Jan 1st 2010...

 

anomnight.1.4.2010.gif

 

Feb 1st 2010...

 

anomnight.2.1.2010.gif

 

 

 

Compare the maps above to our current state of affairs...this is something I particularly pay attention to as we move along. 

 

anomnight.9.27.2018.gif

I'm not really too surprised by this. 09-10 was the winter driven by the overwhelmingly negative NAO. Had that not been the case, we would likely have seen a much different outcome. I think Bastardi is using the net results as an analog, not the SST profile itself. If that makes any sense?

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@OKwx2k4 I just saw the latest GFS run to show some mixed precip on OK from a potential Arizona hurricane about 300 hours out nonetheless that run thinks you guys will be -20 degress below average getting into the mid 30's during mid from that run October. I've seen a trend that central plains are going to be nailed with cold air next month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not really too surprised by this. 09-10 was the winter driven by the overwhelmingly negative NAO. Had that not been the case, we would likely have seen a much different outcome. I think Bastardi is using the net results as an analog, not the SST profile itself. If that makes any sense?

I know what you mean. My comment was geared towards the possibility of different outcomes of where to expect troughs/ridges this year compared to that season.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know what you mean. My comment was geared towards the possibility of different outcomes of where to expect troughs/ridges this year compared to that season.

 

I will move back to Nebraska right now if 09-10’ is happening again. Best winter of my life aside from 00’ in Chicago!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will move back to Nebraska right now if 09-10’ is happening again. Best winter of my life aside from 00’ in Chicago!

Stay put buddy...IMO, December may be a great month around here...just worried it gets real cold mid/late winter that suppresses the pattern and leaves us in a clipper train while the big dogs head south of us, unless we get lucky and get a big January bomb.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I found Interesting for the Westerly QBO was that there was a trough in the south. Typicaly because of the west QBO It would be  warmer along the east cost however because we will likely have an El nino the QBO would favor cooler temps along the east. Very close to the Strong negative Aleutian low and the ridging over the west that is predicted. Also almost identical to the Euro model. Also I found an interesting article from 2009 which supports some of what i'm thinking on the QBO, NAO and PNA   http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?ref=rss&a=213

 

http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/213_4.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@OKwx2k4 I just saw the latest GFS run to show some mixed precip on OK from a potential Arizona hurricane about 300 hours out nonetheless that run thinks you guys will be -20 degress below average getting into the mid 30's during mid from that run October. I've seen a trend that central plains are going to be nailed with cold air next month.

Yes. This is going to be part of the sudden changes I've been referring to. My region has a bullseye stamped on it pretty much. This is going to be one of the wildest autumn/winters of my life.

 

If we get a west based 2009, which is what I think the whole anti-log thing would do here, and none of that cold can retrograde back west over a cold N. PAC, like in 09, what happens? The entire CONUS gets locked into a cold pattern w, exception to the far SW, New England, and maybe Florida, but 1899 says Florida can freeze too. Crazy stuff.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I found Interesting for the Westerly QBO was that there was a trough in the south. Typicaly because of the west QBO It would be warmer along the east cost however because we will likely have an El nino the QBO would favor cooler temps along the east. Very close to the Strong negative Aleutian low and the ridging over the west that is predicted. Also almost identical to the Euro model. Also I found an interesting article from 2009 which supports some of what i'm thinking on the QBO, NAO and PNA http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?ref=rss&a=213

 

http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/213_4.jpg

Great share. Thank you!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know what you mean. My comment was geared towards the possibility of different outcomes of where to expect troughs/ridges this year compared to that season.

I will move back to Nebraska right now if 09-10’ is happening again. Best winter of my life aside from 00’ in Chicago!

One thing I found Interesting for the Westerly QBO was that there was a trough in the south. Typicaly because of the west QBO It would be  warmer along the east cost however because we will likely have an El nino the QBO would favor cooler temps along the east. Very close to the Strong negative Aleutian low and the ridging over the west that is predicted. Also almost identical to the Euro model. Also I found an interesting article from 2009 which supports some of what i'm thinking on the QBO, NAO and PNA   http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?ref=rss&a=213 http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/213_4.jpg

Keep in mind tho, that things shift west a bit with a Modoki Nino, thus the EC cold could be displaced inland. I don't see an 1899 (yet)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Keep in mind tho, that things shift west a bit with a Modoki Nino, thus the EC cold could be displaced inland. I don't see an 1899 (yet)

I hope you do soon. That year was epic!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Keep in mind tho, that things shift west a bit with a Modoki Nino, thus the EC cold could be displaced inland. I don't see an 1899 (yet)

While the blocking would be geared by the Modoki farther west However a great deal of the cold would be geared by the Negative NAO. However the Euro takes into account the Modoki and shows an almost identical pattern

 

500-1-e1536328451899.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope you do soon. That year was epic!

It sure was! (If you lived on the Florida-Georgia line). Other than the Feb Arctic blast im not sure what else that winter did up here in The Mitt??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While the blocking would be geared by the Modoki farther west However a great deal of the cold would be geared by the Negative NAO. However the Euro takes into account the Modoki and shows an almost identical pattern

 

500-1-e1536328451899.jpg

But earlier I thought you posted that the NAO isn't very nevative and has not been so very often. Nonetheless, I expect the EC to well. How well is TBD. If you take 77-78 (a leading analog via weak Modoki ENSO), the area that did best was Philly and north. They also shared the wealth with the Midwest as I expect to be the case this winter. Stronger Nino's, especially traditional ones treat DC and points south best. I'm leaning more like 77-78 unless we see a tanking NAO like we had in 09-10. That's not to we say zero periods of neg NAO, but I'll be surprised at a repeat of 09-10. That was really anomalous.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It sure was! (If you lived on the Florida-Georgia line). Other than the Feb Arctic blast im not sure what else that winter did up here in The Mitt??

Probably had 5 ft of snow and subzero temps for highs w wcf's in the -30s or lower.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While the blocking would be geared by the Modoki farther west However a great deal of the cold would be geared by the Negative NAO. However the Euro takes into account the Modoki and shows an almost identical pattern

 

500-1-e1536328451899.jpg

I dont believe that high latitude blocking has anything at all to do with El Nino. Theres no scientific link or reason that would support or agree with that is there?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dont believe that high latitude blocking has anything at all to do with El Nino. Theres no scientific link or reason that would support or agree with that is there?

 

Just going off a theory from Jaster that the cooler air would be shifted inland due to the shift of the warm pool of water/temps. Though I should rephrase that It shouldn’t really affect blocking more so the temperatures or at least the warmth in the north. Though I do see your point that the mid latitude blocking has nothing to do with the Modoki since there have been years without it and still having similar patterns.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just going off a theory from Jaster that the cooler air would be shifted inland due to the shift of the warm pool of water/temps. Though I should rephrase that It shouldn’t really affect blocking more so the temperatures or at least the warmth in the north. Though I do see your point that the mid latitude blocking has nothing to do with the Modoki since there have been years without it and still having similar patterns.

I didn't mean for my question to sound abrasive at all if it came off that way.

 

In my honest opinion ENSO is a primary driver of tropical ridging placement from 20N to 20S. Strength and placement of greatest forcing determines both ridge placement and strength of interaction with mid-latitudes.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now, that was a massive push of Arctic air invading the US at that particular time.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe either the Midwest or  southeast is going to get the winters worst. If we get the stubborn southeast ridge to continue us folks in NC could end up being blocked from the arctic air and the Midwest would be in the sweet spot. Though if we see the ridge diminish and a trough develop over the mid Atlantic into Texas the NAO could win over and we would be talking about a heck of a winter.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe either the Midwest or southeast is going to get the winters worst. If we get the stubborn southeast ridge to continue us folks in NC could end up being blocked from the arctic air and the Midwest would be in the sweet spot. Though if we see the ridge diminish and a trough develop over the mid Atlantic into Texas the NAO could win over and we would be talking about a heck of a winter.

I think that ridge is as strong as you're going to see it right now and will diminish and flex with time as mid-latitude blocking transitions to high lat blocking in that side. It will get strong enough to fight back at times this winter but I doubt it gets stronger.

 

Every trough that has crossed the red river since June has developed a low at it's base in central or SW TX. Get those wrapped up and rolling along and it will be like battering that ridge with atmospheric bowling balls.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...