WeatherNerd Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 I created A winter outlook I wanted to share but the forum said that I couldn't use that image extension on the community so I created a google website for It based on my opinions https://sites.google.com/view/winter-outlook/home 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 It's nice to see people excited. I, on the other hand, find it difficult to get excited about long-range winter outlooks. If we actually do get a bunch of snow and cold, I'll be excited. Winter can always just as easily be a dud. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 It's nice to see people excited. I, on the other hand, find it difficult to get excited about long-range winter outlooks. If we actually do get a bunch of snow and cold, I'll be excited. Winter can always just as easily be a dud.I agree. Although, it is fun to analyze and do your research to check your knowledge at the end, whether you failed or passed. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 I created A winter outlook I wanted to share but the forum said that I couldn't use that image extension on the community so I created a google website for It based on my opinions https://sites.google.com/view/winter-outlook/homeGreat job. I enjoyed that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNerd Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Great job. I enjoyed that.So glad you enjoyed my outlook. So exited for the Cansip model and Euro to come out tomorrow. Hopefully the CanSip decides to go back to what it was showing last month to support my point and the Euro keeps staying bullish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNerd Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 GFS Showing lots of snow in the Dakotas, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana for the next 10 days. I expect this pattern to go on until at least November 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 GFS Showing lots of snow in the Dakotas, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana for the next 10 days. I expect this pattern to go on until at least NovemberKeep on building it is all I can say. That southern edge is "pointing" right where I want it to go later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Keep on building it is all I can say. That southern edge is "pointing" right where I want it to go later.To be talking about "building" a snowpack this early in the season is refreshing after these past few years where we watched the other side of the pole get absolutely dumped on while we patiently waited from the outside looking in.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 To be talking about "building" a snowpack this early in the season is refreshing after these past few years where we watched the other side of the pole get absolutely dumped on while we patiently waited from the outside looking in....Yeah. Like when Siberia got locked into a -30° anomaly pattern over and over again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNerd Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 The latest update of the Cansip underestimates the Aleutian low yet again. Though It does show some good blocking over Weatern Canda and Alaska. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 The latest update of the Cansip underestimates the Aleutian low yet again. Though It does show some good blocking over Weatern Canda and Alaska. Thoughts?I never cared for that model tbh. I liked your winter outlook. Thanks for sharing it, but can you re-state here your summary for the GL's? It seems to be missing a word or something. Thx Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNerd Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 However The later run shows Dcember lining up almost exactly to how I think December will play out. Also interesting to see that in February. Interesting to see how that plays out. The model definitely takes it as a negative NAO ceartainly not a bad run but still stubbornly underestimates the strength of the Aleutian low which if that were to come into play would show the forecast more troughier than it actually is. On the other hand let’s hope the Euro keeps It’s Idea with the troughing and doesn’t change too much or better yet gets cooler. I’m still sceptical of a start early winter. I think the USA would really see anything major until 2019 rools around though winter extending into March isn’t out of the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNerd Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 I never cared for that model tbh. I liked your winter outlook. Thanks for sharing it, but can you re-state here your summary for the GL's? It seems to be missing a word or something. ThxMy bad for the misspelling but I think that your area will see the worst of the winter in December and because the lakes havn’t Frozen over yet you could see active lake effect snow systems. Though It won’t be as brutal as last year if it was even really brutal. By the end of the winter you could see near normal to slightly above average this snow this year and lots of cold though warming up into 2019. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 The latest update of the Cansip underestimates the Aleutian low yet again. Though It does show some good blocking over Weatern Canda and Alaska. Thoughts?I think it understates mid and low latitude SSTs or something and overstates smaller effects in the higher latitudes. Never was much my favorite either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 BRRRRRR!! Could this map be in the making this upcoming season?! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNerd Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 The GFS takes a trough over the east in mid october 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 BRRRRRR!! Could this map be in the making this upcoming season?! Good luck getting any storms with that lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Good luck getting any storms with that lolTrue, but, that "Great Blizzard" of 1899, did materialized, if you can believe that, regardless of that huge arctic airmass. https://davidhealeyauthor.com/2016/02/25/the-blizzard-of-1899-remembered/ Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 The GFS takes a trough over the east in mid octoberNow its getting a bit too progressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNerd Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Now its getting a bit too progressive. The GFS takes a trough over the east in mid octoberIf the MJO goes into phase 2 after October 15th this pattern would be supported. Though if it stays in phase 1 October won't have too much of a pattern change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNerd Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Getting closer to winter If i'm correct this is the first winter storm warning of the season 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNerd Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 I'm actually leaning towards a basin wide El nino less of a traditional modoki. the warmest in the center. I found that 2009 had a basin wide el nino and Interestingly enough that winter had almost Identical impacts to a modoki. though thats just one year. What are your thoughts on this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 BRRRRRR!! Could this map be in the making this upcoming season?! I survived 7 weeks of that kind of cold in Jan-Feb '94 in N Mich. It was brutal. Don't care to re-live another episode tbh and yeah, don't look for any storms in our sub with that around. Ofc, it wasn't teeth-chattering the entire 7 weeks, but wave after wave hit with no above freezing spells mixed in. Here's a 7 day example that coincides with that old TV snippit of Skilling's WGN weather map. Keep in mind this was Traverse City proper where non-stop LES clouds were insulating the temps. Further inland where I worked (50 miles) the lows at night were plummeting to -30 to -40F often. The average departures (4th column) ranged from -15 to -30 below normal and the snow depth went from 24" to 35". My place was further inland about 3 miles and about 400 feet higher in elevation. I was buried. Used my blower every evening and shoveled my roof which was a lot of work due to the settling. It wasn't light n fluffy stuff. Those days were truly like living in the Yukon for this guy. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNerd Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 While the graphic is hard too see the US I have an image of the 500 mb pattern for the Beijing climate model for the winter. Very similar to the Euro and JMA http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/download/Prediction/CS2gen/20180901/C_GH500_20181201_M03_GL.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 I survived 7 weeks of that kind of cold in Jan-Feb '94 in N Mich. It was brutal. Don't care to re-live another episode tbh and yeah, don't look for any storms in our sub with that around. Ofc, it wasn't teeth-chattering the entire 7 weeks, but wave after wave hit with no above freezing spells mixed in. Here's a 7 day example that coincides with that old TV snippit of Skilling's WGN weather map. Keep in mind this was Traverse City proper where non-stop LES clouds were insulating the temps. Further inland where I worked (50 miles) the lows at night were plummeting to -30 to -40F often. Traverse City daily for Jan 14-20 1994.PNG The average departures (4th column) ranged from -15 to -30 below normal and the snow depth went from 24" to 35". My place was further inland about 3 miles and about 400 feet higher in elevation. I was buried. Used my blower every evening and shoveled my roof which was a lot of work due to the settling. It wasn't light n fluffy stuff. Those days were truly like living in the Yukon for this guy.That is severe Winter conditions. A little too extreme for my taste. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 I survived 7 weeks of that kind of cold in Jan-Feb '94 in N Mich. It was brutal. Don't care to re-live another episode tbh and yeah, don't look for any storms in our sub with that around. Ofc, it wasn't teeth-chattering the entire 7 weeks, but wave after wave hit with no above freezing spells mixed in. Here's a 7 day example that coincides with that old TV snippit of Skilling's WGN weather map. Keep in mind this was Traverse City proper where non-stop LES clouds were insulating the temps. Further inland where I worked (50 miles) the lows at night were plummeting to -30 to -40F often. Traverse City daily for Jan 14-20 1994.PNG The average departures (4th column) ranged from -15 to -30 below normal and the snow depth went from 24" to 35". My place was further inland about 3 miles and about 400 feet higher in elevation. I was buried. Used my blower every evening and shoveled my roof which was a lot of work due to the settling. It wasn't light n fluffy stuff. Those days were truly like living in the Yukon for this guy. Sounds like it was one of those things that is both incredible to experience for the extremes and so difficult you don't want to ever do it again. I've had a few experiences like that. 2009 ice storm was the single most beautiful, awe inspiring, and yet difficult and tragically destructive (weather) things I have went through. Incredible but hard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 That is severe Winter conditions. A little too extreme for my taste. Sounds like it was one of those things that is both incredible to experience for the extremes and so difficult you don't want to ever do it again. I've had a few experiences like that. 2009 ice storm was the single most beautiful, awe inspiring, and yet difficult and tragically destructive (weather) things I have went through. Incredible but hard. And I was one of the few from my work place that was lucky to live along the coast. Those poor peeps inland not only had the most bitter cold, they had to deal with frozen water supply pipes and frozen drain and sewer lines. Utterly unbearable loss of modern convenient life-style we take for granted every day. To add insult to injury, a lot of them were living in converted summer cabins and their furnaces could not keep the place livable at -35F either. I like winter snows, but that combination with the cold was a whole other level of extreme. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 2, 2018 Report Share Posted October 2, 2018 And I was one of the few from my work place that was lucky to live along the coast. Those poor peeps inland not only had the most bitter cold, they had to deal with frozen water supply pipes and frozen drain and sewer lines. Utterly unbearable loss of modern convenient life-style we take for granted every day. To add insult to injury, a lot of them were living in converted summer cabins and their furnaces could not keep the place livable at -35F either. I like winter snows, but that combination with the cold was a whole other level of extreme.Agree 100%. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2018 Report Share Posted October 3, 2018 Off of the 12z GFS, this system goes from 995 mb @ h30 and mega-bombs to 948 mb @ h60 in N Canada Ka-BOOM! That's the kind of stuff I like to see for potential further south later on during winter. That's a massive wind field too. I'm ready for some of that. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 3, 2018 Report Share Posted October 3, 2018 Off of the 12z GFS, this system goes from 995 mb @ h30 and mega-bombs to 948 mb @ h60 in N Canada 20181002 12Z gfs_mslp_wind_h30.png Ka-BOOM! 20181002 12Z gfs_mslp_wind_h60.png That's the kind of stuff I like to see for potential further south later on during winter. That's a massive wind field too. I'm ready for some of that.Yes sir. Sign me up for a bomb. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 3, 2018 Report Share Posted October 3, 2018 Exhibit A of this year's LRC will feature plenty of opportunity's for CO Low's this season. Gosh, it's been year's since we have seen troughs dig this far south in October. Given the time of year, hard cutters are to be expected, but going forward, seasonal shifts in the jet stream pattern should displace the storm track farther south, esp during a season that should produce a lot of blocking (high lat/mid lat). Speaking of blocking, I'm seeing a season that will likely feature the "Banana HP's" coming out of Canada. This could slow down the pattern quite a bit late in the season, or maybe, the entire season. Seasons as such, I do recall a year the LRC cycle was close to 60 days and I think it was the '14-'15 season, a weak El Nino year. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Gary did mention before El Nino year's tend to have longer cycles or it was something I noticed. Nonetheless, I'm extremely enthusiastic to see this year's LRC pattern develop. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted October 3, 2018 Report Share Posted October 3, 2018 Figured this would be the right place for this learning/discussion question... for the last several years, people were anticipating - historic, epic, fast and furious starts, record breaking, analog cited years to the 60s and 70s and whatever other weenie adjective you’d like to add to describe the upcoming winter. And at the end of the day, the last several “winters” have been almost nonexistent. Yes, last year some people had 1 week in February and others had 1 day in April, but take those 2 out of the equation and it was just like the last few. So here we are again and similar predictions are being made. My question is - what stands out or is different this year? Also, what were some of the factors that led to the disappointments the last several years? Any correlations? I don’t think I can recall a year since joining the forum where i ever read any negative winter predictions. Guess my suggestion would be to start approaching it from both sides. Discuss what factors are being shown to support a cold/active winter, along with the factors that may lead to a more mild/dry winter. Then keep updating as new data comes in every week or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 3, 2018 Report Share Posted October 3, 2018 Figured this would be the right place for this learning/discussion question... for the last several years, people were anticipating - historic, epic, fast and furious starts, record breaking, analog cited years to the 60s and 70s and whatever other weenie adjective you’d like to add to describe the upcoming winter. And at the end of the day, the last several “winters” have been almost nonexistent. Yes, last year some people had 1 week in February and others had 1 day in April, but take those 2 out of the equation and it was just like the last few. So here we are again and similar predictions are being made. My question is - what stands out or is different this year? Also, what were some of the factors that led to the disappointments the last several years? Any correlations? I don’t think I can recall a year since joining the forum where i ever read any negative winter predictions. Guess my suggestion would be to start approaching it from both sides. Discuss what factors are being shown to support a cold/active winter, along with the factors that may lead to a more mild/dry winter. Then keep updating as new data comes in every week or so.Glad you posted this bc I'll be the first to comment on my "weenie" posts and reasoning of how it can fail. Firstly, if the forthcoming Nino conditions become basin-wide and warm farther east, rather than a more central-based. Second, if the trough out west becomes a dominant player, does lack of mid-lat blocking allow for warm cutters??? Thirdly, the SST's across the NE PAC would need to vastly cool and displace the warm pool and that would take away the chances of the Alaskan Ridge firing up. Last year, I don't think I called for a historic winter, but rather a very volatile one. It did end up colder than normal, but the storm track just did not sit right for members nearby and farther south. For this season, I just have this gut feeling something incredible is aligning. I've felt strongly about this since last Spring and I sit here today feeling even more convinced it will be a great season, a long one as well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted October 3, 2018 Report Share Posted October 3, 2018 Glad you posted this bc I'll be the first to comment on my "weenie" posts and reasoning of how it can fail. Firstly, if the forthcoming Nino conditions become basin-wide and warm farther east, rather than a more central-based. Second, if the trough out west becomes a dominant player, does lack of mid-lat blocking allow for warm cutters??? Thirdly, the SST's across the NE PAC would need to vastly cool and displace the warm pool and that would take away the chances of the Alaskan Ridge firing up. Last year, I don't think I called for a historic winter, but rather a very volatile one. It did end up colder than normal, but the storm track just did not sit right for members nearby and farther south. For this season, I just have this gut feeling some incredible is aligning. I've felt strongly about this since last Spring and I sit here today feeling even more convinced it will be a great season, a long one as well. Thanks Tom, and wasn't at all singling you out or downplaying your posts. I myself am a winter weather enthusiast as most of us are. I know that you always have merit for making the predictions you do and own up to them whether or not they come to fruition. I was just more tying to see if we can use the last few years, which were predicted to be "good" winters that didn't play out, to learn from going forward. It just seems every year there are signs and signals which point to an exciting winter, but we rarely ever discuss the alternative scenario which has ended up transpiring and being a disappointment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 3, 2018 Report Share Posted October 3, 2018 Thanks Tom, and wasn't at all singling you out or downplaying your posts. I myself am a winter weather enthusiast as most of us are. I know that you always have merit for making the predictions you do and own up to them whether or not they come to fruition. I was just more tying to see if we can use the last few years, which were predicted to be "good" winters that didn't play out, to learn from going forward. It just seems every year there are signs and signals which point to an exciting winter, but we rarely ever discuss the alternative scenario which has ended up transpiring and being a disappointment.I didn’t feel you singled me out in anyway amigo. I’ll try to post more on “event” or “causes” that can downplay a good winter, storm track, temp/precip pattern this season. “Fair and Balanced” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2018 Report Share Posted October 3, 2018 Figured this would be the right place for this learning/discussion question... for the last several years, people were anticipating - historic, epic, fast and furious starts, record breaking, analog cited years to the 60s and 70s and whatever other weenie adjective you’d like to add to describe the upcoming winter. And at the end of the day, the last several “winters” have been almost nonexistent. Yes, last year some people had 1 week in February and others had 1 day in April, but take those 2 out of the equation and it was just like the last few. So here we are again and similar predictions are being made. My question is - what stands out or is different this year? Also, what were some of the factors that led to the disappointments the last several years? Any correlations? I don’t think I can recall a year since joining the forum where i ever read any negative winter predictions. Guess my suggestion would be to start approaching it from both sides. Discuss what factors are being shown to support a cold/active winter, along with the factors that may lead to a more mild/dry winter. Then keep updating as new data comes in every week or so. I'll begin with the bolded. Haha, yes very true, and I for one will always focus on the bright side vs posting about "what could go wrong?", if only because my time available to interact is limited. But mostly because I don't have to be a "realist" at my hobby as nobody's life should be in jeopardy by me posting my random thoughts. Often, we know what could go wrong and just hope for the best. I'd say that the last time I should've been posting doom-n-gloom as a winter fan would've been for the expected Super Nino of '15-16. As it were, Tom was pumping the fact that it was expected to be a Modoki type event and as such the winter may not be a total dumpster fire. Not being well versed on the Modoki-type Nino I played along. Well, ends up Tom was correct, that winter didn't act like a typical strong classic Nino and not only did I have slightly above normal snow totals, I had 2 storms drop a FOOT of snow in mby. Fault me if you like, but I'm glad I played along with his lead. Ofc, Ma Nature always gets the last laugh, and we actually got the Nino effects the following winter. Then there's last winter which I was pumped for a 1974-75 strong analog as that winter was very snowy in my home town of Davison here in SMI. While last winter will be remembered for a very frustrating pattern of repeatedly torching off my entire snow pack, it nonetheless delivered 137% of normal snow total to mby here in Marshall, and BEAT 74-75's total in my old home town 3 counties to my NE 85.3" vs 82.9". Last winter there (KFNT) even beat the vaunted 13-14's 83.9" total. So yeah, helluva season for certain regions here in The Mitt. Ofc, if yby didn't make out so well I'm sympathetic, but this is the first season that I've actually posted "a call" and if it's a bad one come next spring I'll gladly admit I'm out of my league in such matters. Anyways, that's my 2 cents worth. I hope you and all in our sub have a truly epic season! One to be remembered for a long, long time.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 4, 2018 Report Share Posted October 4, 2018 Figured this would be the right place for this learning/discussion question... for the last several years, people were anticipating - historic, epic, fast and furious starts, record breaking, analog cited years to the 60s and 70s and whatever other weenie adjective you’d like to add to describe the upcoming winter. And at the end of the day, the last several “winters” have been almost nonexistent. Yes, last year some people had 1 week in February and others had 1 day in April, but take those 2 out of the equation and it was just like the last few. So here we are again and similar predictions are being made. My question is - what stands out or is different this year? Also, what were some of the factors that led to the disappointments the last several years? Any correlations? I don’t think I can recall a year since joining the forum where i ever read any negative winter predictions. Guess my suggestion would be to start approaching it from both sides. Discuss what factors are being shown to support a cold/active winter, along with the factors that may lead to a more mild/dry winter. Then keep updating as new data comes in every week or so.I would like to apologize for the past 2 seasons on here also. For some reason, I could get the pattern pretty close to right....for march-may. Lol. I don't know why the past 2 seasons behaved the way they did. I use different indicators or approaches and I haven't ever experienced such an atmospheric lag effect between some of those things as I have the last 2. Not sure if it had something to do with the crashing solar, double QBO or what. I've just never saw the polar portion of the pattern lag like that. The answer is, honestly, I've been trying to learn for a whole year what happened or what is happening and I don't know. I can't match a series of 3 years like that to any in the modern era. Could bend them to fit the early 80s winters but there just wasn't any cold left to push the pattern the last 3 years like in the early to mid-80s. The arctic temp crashed back down in midwinter and the cold didn't dislodge over N.A. until spring. You're speaking to one of the reasons I've tried to maintain my peace a bit more this season. I know what a person who is wrong 2 years in a row looks like. Going through summer and this early autumn, I've been fairly on track so we'll see how it goes. Haven't ever intended to mislead anyone. Will enjoy reading everyone's weather thoughts regardless of whether right or wrong. That's what discussion is for. This is a forum full of really good, kind, thoughtful, and gifted people. I wouldn't mind hearing strong, well presented counterpoints against my thoughts sometimes to kind of "check me" or make me think, but most of the time it's just folks who show up afterwards to point out flaws rather than contribute. Not pointed at anyone at all, just open fact. I do this to challenge my mind and keep it sharp but mostly because I love weather and people. I actually appreciate this. I need a fair bit of correction every now and then and to think a bit more before I write sometimes. Edit:Yikes! I've been here almost 3 years, not 2. Lol. I guess I've been REALLY wrong 2 times and 50 percent wrong once. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2018 Report Share Posted October 4, 2018 My prior posts on my analog-based call for the winter was lacking a precip pattern map, but here's one based on 3 of the top analog seasons fwiw: If I could make an adjustment to this, it would be to include the ArkLaTex region in the above avg precip colors as I feel that a key uniqueness to this upcoming season will be more systems originating down there. Sometimes moving NE, and other times (especially during periods when the NAO is neg) taking a more ENE or even E track. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2018 Report Share Posted October 4, 2018 JMA's Sept outlook for MET winter looked good at all levels: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 4, 2018 Report Share Posted October 4, 2018 Tho it's from out in New England, this is a thoughtful and thorough write-up including the solar component. Interesting to see how those in SNE are half hopeful and half scared. They want a 14-15 repeat, but the last two season's have not lived up to the hype. They also know that they've been on something of a roll wrt large snowstorms over the past Idk 15 yrs? And they afraid to hope too much in the Nino and then see a 94-95 outcome, lol. The EC in general has been stacking Big Dogs like they're free candy at a kiddie parade. I think they mentioned ORH has had (20) 12+ storms in the last 12 yrs. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/potential-2018-2019-analogs.html Spoiler Alert: The take-away is that Low Solar + Weak Nino is a much better recipe to High Lat Blocking yielding a better shot at slow moving large storm systems in the eastern CONUS. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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