Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

[CentralNebWeather]

Why not 2009?

Not all that great in my area. More east of me in Grand Island and Hastings. We had the Christmas blizzard but it was much worse east of my location.

[Tom]

Courtesty @BenNoll, he has created some nice maps and these are from the Ukie for Dec-Mar...JMA/EURO/UKIE are all on board this winter has legs...

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Woohoo yeah NW flow for the win!!!!

[Tom]

Woohoo yeah NW flow for the win!!!!

Buddy, what are you talking about? If this is your reverse psychology at work then I get it. Lol, but if not, look at that southern jet! This screams to me atmospheric fireworks.

[gabel23]

Buddy, what are you talking about? If this is your reverse psychology at work then I get it. Lol, but if not, look at that southern jet! This screams to me atmospheric fireworks.

I see a split flow if I'm not mistaken? It's been a long time since we have seen something like that!  

[Tom]

I see a split flow if I'm not mistaken? It's been a long time since we have seen something like that!

Right on! Although, this Split Flow pattern is a bit different and that is the STJ will be more active this season thanks to the El Niño. In past years, we really did not have the NW NAMER Ridge Work in conjunction with an active STJ. We would more or less rely on troughs riding down along the West coast out of Canada and “hope” they would dig. We all know that was wishful thinking as storms tracked north consistently. Meanwhile, we are clearly seeing the evolving pattern painting a trough in SoCal/4 corners region, suggesting this is a much different pattern, unlike we have seen in years past with a warm NE PAC. Like with every storm system, will there be enough blocking? Will there be a phased polar and southern jet? Or will the storm cut-off? Bowl across the eastern CONUS? It’ll be fun tracking storms this season.

[Minny_Weather]

Buddy, what are you talking about? If this is your reverse psychology at work then I get it. Lol, but if not, look at that southern jet! This screams to me atmospheric fireworks.

You know me too well

[OKwx2k4]

On BAMwx prediction, I agree with it except that the ridge is displaced too far south. I dont see that ridge closing off the flow. Only retrograding as we go. There is 6-8 weeks of cold coming somewhere soon. October 2000 was not the coldest, BUT, the November-December time period WAS the coldest November and December combined for my area. That's why the 2000 analog keeps hitting me. This is that pattern, with legs to last instead of fizzling in January like la nina does.

[OKwx2k4]

The Nina "essence" in this pattern is caused by the cold in 1.2, among other things. I'd like to keep that going til January.

[OKwx2k4]

Anyone know, off hand where I could find a long running NAO chart?

[Tom]

Anyone know, off hand where I could find a long running NAO chart?

Here you go...5th row down...you can also see the AO/PNA as well...

 

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks

[CentralNebWeather]

On BAMwx prediction, I agree with it except that the ridge is displaced too far south. I dont see that ridge closing off the flow. Only retrograding as we go. There is 6-8 weeks of cold coming somewhere soon. October 2000 was not the coldest, BUT, the November-December time period WAS the coldest November and December combined for my area. That's why the 2000 analog keeps hitting me. This is that pattern, with legs to last instead of fizzling in January like la nina does.

I would love the 2000 analog.  My daughter was born in Dec. of 2000, she's a senior now, and we had a large snowstorm in Nov. of 2000 when my wife was 8 months pregnant.  I am also a teacher and that winter of 2000-2001 we had 7 snow days.  We actually had to make up 2 days in May, first and only time we have ever had to make up days.  Our school district builds in hours, usually about 5 snow days a year equivalent to that.

[westMJim]

The updated CPC long range guess for November and beyond is now out. Note that in the CPC’s long range guess there are no below average temperatures in their guess for the next year.  There is however an area of below average participation in the Great Lakes and Montana  areas for the winter months

November CPC’s guess

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

 

And their winter guess

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

 

and their spring guess

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5

 

Summer 2019 guess

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=8

[Niko]

The updated CPC long range guess for November and beyond is now out. Note that in the CPC’s long range guess there are no below average temperatures in their guess for the next year.  There is however an area of below average participation in the Great Lakes and Montana  areas for the winter months

November CPC’s guess

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

 

And their winter guess

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

 

and their spring guess

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5

 

Summer 2019 guess

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=8

They are very conservative. Always have been. They neva have BN temps and AN snowfall. Insane!

[OKwx2k4]

I would love the 2000 analog. My daughter was born in Dec. of 2000, she's a senior now, and we had a large snowstorm in Nov. of 2000 when my wife was 8 months pregnant. I am also a teacher and that winter of 2000-2001 we had 7 snow days. We actually had to make up 2 days in May, first and only time we have ever had to make up days. Our school district builds in hours, usually about 5 snow days a year equivalent to that.

One of the absolutely most unique runs of weather I ever had was Oct 16, 2000 to January 16, 2001. It was like winter showed up for my birthday that year. It left too early though. Too many good memories that year.

[OKwx2k4]

Right on! Although, this Split Flow pattern is a bit different and that is the STJ will be more active this season thanks to the El Niño. In past years, we really did not have the NW NAMER Ridge Work in conjunction with an active STJ. We would more or less rely on troughs riding down along the West coast out of Canada and “hope” they would dig. We all know that was wishful thinking as storms tracked north consistently. Meanwhile, we are clearly seeing the evolving pattern painting a trough in SoCal/4 corners region, suggesting this is a much different pattern, unlike we have seen in years past with a warm NE PAC. Like with every storm system, will there be enough blocking? Will there be a phased polar and southern jet? Or will the storm cut-off? Bowl across the eastern CONUS? It’ll be fun tracking storms this season.

Also, if it's like 2013-14, a semi-detailed forecast is only good for about 36 hours from here on.

 

If this gets any better, I'm probably going to go bananas.

[OKwx2k4]

Here you go...5th row down...you can also see the AO/PNA as well...

 

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks

Something is wrong with the link?

[BrianJK]

El Niño watch?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Am I reading this correctly? Seems contrary to what’s been discussed up until this point.

[OKwx2k4]

El Niño watch?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Am I reading this correctly? Seems contrary to what’s been discussed up until this point.

Yes, and no. My original thoughts were no official Nino, BUT if we cleared all the hurdles by this month and made official Niño, 0.8-0.9 max was my call. So, was I covering both bases? Yes. I saw room to be wrong. It looks like I'm going to be glad I was. I thought it was a decent call from mid-summer.

[Madtown]

everyone here has been talking mild winter the past few days. pretty discouraging.

[Tom]

Something is wrong with the link?

Try this one and click on the "Archive of Daily Indices"

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[Tom]

Impressive Euro weeklies run showcasing an amplified N.A. pattern and parking a long term long wave trough over the eastern CONUS.  That's about as locked of a pattern you will see for a 3-4 week period.  My goodness.  Just beautiful.  

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1053067802561568768

 

CFSv2 weeklies are now coming around to the same idea and quite wet as well.  This pattern is primed to brew up storms...and wintry ones...Ol' Man Winter coming early and often in November??  Just like the JMA weeklies, we are seeing 3 long range models "seeing" a very similar pattern.  This type of agreement doesn't happen often.

[Tom]

Let's add Dr. Cohen's thoughts to our winter discussion and throw in his thinking.  You can read his full blog here: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

His model is heavily weighted on the Snow Advance Index (SAI) which is near decadal lows at this point.  This is just 1 point of data being used to make a forecast.  IMO, and I have made my reasoning on this point, N.A. doesn't necessarily need the "Siberian Express" to seed cold on this side of the globe.  While we get deeper into Winter and Siberia/Russia cool off, that connection can then benefit the cold train come mid/late Winter as I believe we will see exhibits of the Cross Polar Flow pattern.

 

[possum]

Let's add Dr. Cohen's thoughts to our winter discussion and throw in his thinking.  You can read his full blog here: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

His model is heavily weighted on the Snow Advance Index (SAI) which is near decadal lows at this point.  This is just 1 point of data being used to make a forecast.  IMO, and I have made my reasoning on this point, N.A. doesn't necessarily need the "Siberian Express" to seed cold on this side of the globe.  While we get deeper into Winter and Siberia/Russia cool off, that connection can then benefit the cold train come mid/late Winter as I believe we will see exhibits of the Cross Polar Flow pattern.

 

thats a total 180 from basically everything i have been seeing?  has something changed in the last couple days that i am oblivious to?

[Niko]

everyone here has been talking mild winter the past few days. pretty discouraging.

Watch them change their thinking come mid to end of November to a colder, snowy picture. Tbh, I am not sure they are looking at the teleconnections closely enough and if they are, they are playing it very safe.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just announced on the radio during the news, reporter says The National Weather Service is predicting above average temps and below normal precipitation for Nebraska this winter.  I seem to hear that forecast by the NWS every year at this time.  Hope they are proven wrong.

[Tom]

thats a total 180 from basically everything i have been seeing?  has something changed in the last couple days that i am oblivious to?

If you read the article, not just this map alone, his temp outlook is heavily weighted based on his SAI theory of how quickly snow advances in Eurasia.  It's just one element of his forecast and if you read the article entirely, he points out way this winter could be colder based on sea ice extent, etc.

[Niko]

Just announced on the radio during the news, reporter says The National Weather Service is predicting above average temps and below normal precipitation for Nebraska this winter.  I seem to hear that forecast by the NWS every year at this time.  Hope they are proven wrong.

They have me for BN precipitation and AN temps, as usual every year. They always throw in the same outlook year after year like you mentioned above in your statement. Dont let them disappoint you. I.E., last year they were calling for the same outlook for my area, as usual, and I ended up w over 60inches of snowfall  (near 61" or so) and BN temps. So, that goes to show you.

[Minny_Weather]

Just announced on the radio during the news, reporter says The National Weather Service is predicting above average temps and below normal precipitation for Nebraska this winter.  I seem to hear that forecast by the NWS every year at this time.  Hope they are proven wrong.

They just need to quit issuing Winter outlooks. I swear they just recycle the same outlook every Winter.

[Hoosier]

They have me for BN precipitation and AN temps, as usual every year. They always throw in the same outlook year after year like you mentioned above in your statement. Dont let them disappoint you. I.E., last year they were calling for the same outlook for my area, as usual, and I ended up w over 60inches of snowfall (near 61" or so) and BN temps. So, that goes to show you.

They had higher odds for above average precip last winter.

 

 

They never actually forecast snowfall, only precip, so it makes it impossible to render a judgement on the former. Plenty of drier than average winters have more snow than average and wetter than average winters can have less snow than average.

[OKwx2k4]

Let's add Dr. Cohen's thoughts to our winter discussion and throw in his thinking. You can read his full blog here: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

His model is heavily weighted on the Snow Advance Index (SAI) which is near decadal lows at this point. This is just 1 point of data being used to make a forecast. IMO, and I have made my reasoning on this point, N.A. doesn't necessarily need the "Siberian Express" to seed cold on this side of the globe. While we get deeper into Winter and Siberia/Russia cool off, that connection can then benefit the cold train come mid/late Winter as I believe we will see exhibits of the Cross Polar Flow pattern.

 

Notable is this, his process usually does work for the east coast. Nosomuch for everyone west of there. Lol. SAI is a tool, but it's very imperfect.

 

I'm of Tom's mindset. I'm locked and ready to rock.

[westMJim]

They had higher odds for above average precip last winter.

 

201710prcp.gif

 

They never actually forecast snowfall, only precip, so it makes it impossible to render a judgement on the former. Plenty of drier than average winters have more snow than average and wetter than average winters can have less snow than average.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that the CPC's long range guess for temperatures was for equal chances last winter,  Anyway on their precip guess for at least Grand Rapids it was a good guess.  Last winter the total precip here at Grand Rapids was 9.01" the average for December, January and February here is 6.82" as for the temperature and snow fall.  Last winter was a near average winter (for the 3 months) with a winter snow fall of 66.2" (of course 32.9" of that fell in December) and the mean temperature here for the winter was 26.4° with the average being 26.5° once again December was the month with the coldest temps compared to average,

[Hoosier]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that the CPC's long range guess for temperatures was for equal chances last winter, Anyway on their precip guess for at least Grand Rapids it was a good guess. Last winter the total precip here at Grand Rapids was 9.01" the average for December, January and February here is 6.82" as for the temperature and snow fall. Last winter was a near average winter (for the 3 months) with a winter snow fall of 66.2" (of course 32.9" of that fell in December) and the mean temperature here for the winter was 26.4° with the average being 26.5° once again December was the month with the coldest temps compared to average,

For DJF, yeah

 

[jaster220]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that the CPC's long range guess for temperatures was for equal chances last winter,  Anyway on their precip guess for at least Grand Rapids it was a good guess.  Last winter the total precip here at Grand Rapids was 9.01" the average for December, January and February here is 6.82" as for the temperature and snow fall.  Last winter was a near average winter (for the 3 months) with a winter snow fall of 66.2" (of course 32.9" of that fell in December) and the mean temperature here for the winter was 26.4° with the average being 26.5° once again December was the month with the coldest temps compared to average,

 

While GR may have ended up with an avg DJF, you didn't have to go too far S and/or E to see the snow totals exceeding avg. Here in Marshall I ended up at about 137% of normal and KFNT had their snowiest season (not sure what percent was in MET winter?). With the Nina last winter, we knew precip would be above normal. It was just a matter of how much would fall as liquid vs frozen?

 

For DJF, yeah

 

201710temp.gif

 

As you posted, we don't need above avg precip to have a good or even great snow season. Just need all or most of what precip we do get to come in the form of snow. I think we have a shot at that scenario this winter.

[Niko]

They had higher odds for above average precip last winter.

 

201710prcp.gif

 

They never actually forecast snowfall, only precip, so it makes it impossible to render a judgement on the former. Plenty of drier than average winters have more snow than average and wetter than average winters can have less snow than average.

Surprisingly, they did. They need to forecast snowfall outlooks.

[jaster220]

Bastardi today..

 

 

If the Euro forecast were to verify, the next 45 days will be the coldest of the time-frame since Oct/Nov 2002

 

Which ofc, is his number 1 analog. He notes the similarities in ocean SST's, especially wrt the MJO and the Indian Ocean region that impacts the likely phases. He said it's similar, but actually looks even colder than 02-03. He again hinted that WxBell's final winter maps may look even colder and stormier. Funny how at odds they are with Dr. Cohen, NOAA, Accuwx, and one of the almanacs. Quite the battle setting up in the seasonal forecast realm!

[OKwx2k4]

Bastardi today..

 

 

Which ofc, is his number 1 analog. He notes the similarities in ocean SST's, especially wrt the MJO and the Indian Ocean region that impacts the likely phases. He said it's similar, but actually looks even colder than 02-03. He again hinted that WxBell's final winter maps may look even colder and stormier. Funny how at odds they are with Dr. Cohen, NOAA, Accuwx, and one of the almanacs. Quite the battle setting up in the seasonal forecast realm!

One thing I have learned from being admittedly cold biased myself (like Bastardi), is that when you're afraid that's going to be TOO COLD, it's probably going to be plenty cold enough. The guy does know literally every mechanism that delivers cold and snow, so when he says that every metric he uses harmonizes into the same pattern, I pay attention. It looks like 2 winters are coming. One for fall and one for the heart of winter.

[Tom]

Big time flip happening via the CFSv2 for the month of November in terms of temps/precip over the last several days.  Confidence continues to grow that our sub forum will have a highlight winter season as the LRC finishes setting up by late November.  This particular model is certainly showing signs of major feedback problems with how to handle the very warm SST's in the NE PAC.  It's now playing "catch up" with the rest of the crew.  If these trends continue to trend stronger in the coming days, I believe winter will arrive weeks ahead of schedule across the central CONUS.  Something truly magnificent is brewing and I'm thrilled to be able to follow this coming cold season with each and every one of you.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201811.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201811.gif

[jaster220]

From 40/70 Benchmark on Amwx

 

 

That is what I was trying to get at....using 1978 doesn't mean necessarily that we will have a record breaking blizzard, nor a neg NAO in the seasonal mean, however it implies that at least a like period is an enhanced likelihood.

I would be very careful about going wall-wall pos NAO.

 

He more or less backs-up my thoughts. I read that NE thd to get a glimpse from the "outside". There's obviously a concern over NAO remaining relatively positive noted in his response.

[Hawkeye]

Big time flip happening via the CFSv2 for the month of November in terms of temps/precip over the last several days.

 

I like to see that widespread dryness vanishing.