Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

[Thunder98]

A cold and snowy Winter for the Central and Eastern U.S. Solar Minimum and Weak El Nino Modoki helps as well.

 

https://bluehill.org/Winter_2018-19_jd.pdf

[Thunder98]

 

[OKwx2k4]

I think their forecast is too far east but better to be safe than sorry for energy folks this season. Either way. Cold cold cold.

[Minny_Weather]

I think their forecast is too far east but better to be safe than sorry for energy folks this season. Either way. Cold cold cold.

Every model/Outlook is gonna be cold biased for the East Coast. That's why I don't listen to any of them. It's the same each year.

[jaster220]

I think their forecast is too far east but better to be safe than sorry for energy folks this season. Either way. Cold cold cold.

 

Not sure if you meant WB, or that other link posted? Fwiw, the Pioneer model output as shown isn't the official WB winter forecast, which was updated and I posted that update, which was expanded back west and northwest from their original call in early Aug.

 

Every model/Outlook is gonna be cold biased for the East Coast. That's why I don't listen to any of them. It's the same each year.

 

Not sure the models are EC biased, but the outlooks from any source over that way certainly are.

 

 

I do like that the Pioneer wants to give us further west a moist January, not just a wet December. Looks like Feb's a lost cause inland of the coast, got eyes on yby, but until then a lot of us could do real well.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Not sure if you meant WB, or that other link posted? Fwiw, the Pioneer model output as shown isn't the official WB winter forecast, which was updated and I posted that update, which was expanded back west and northwest from their original call in early Aug.

 

 

Not sure the models are EC biased, but the outlooks from any source over that way certainly are.

 

 

I do like that the Pioneer wants to give us further west a moist January, not just a wet December. Looks like Feb's a lost cause inland of the coast, got eyes on yby, but until then a lot of us could do real well.

 

20181108 DJF Pioneer Model Precip Anom's.PNG

 

You're correct. You stated correctly. I inferred and assumed incorrectly. You and thunder98 simply showed what it said.

[Tom]

On today's date, 11/11/18, the sun has hit 190 spotless days and will easily surpass the 200 day mark by year's end.

 

Sunspot number: 0 

What is the sunspot number?
Updated 11 Nov 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 24 days 
2018 total: 190 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 
2014 total: 1 day (2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 11 Nov 2018

[OKwx2k4]

I'm having trouble understanding how this pattern is this warm at 2m in any season.

 

 

May not be in order but you get what I'm saying.

[jaster220]

 

I'm having trouble understanding how this pattern is this warm at 2m in any season?

 

I doubt that it is, but let's keep in mind that they have programmed the GFS to "normalize" temps towards average (historical or AGW-adjusted??) beyond d5 or d7. Not sure on the cut-off tbh. Thus 2m maps will often be in conflict with it's own h5 maps. Not even to mention the pathetic CFSv2 and it's uselessness. Bastardi was showing how the CFS at the end of Oct showed the CONUS in a full-on torch for Nov. Ten days later it's finally portraying the ongoing BN month, so it's a "hind-cast" model, lol

[OKwx2k4]

It keeps putting warmth with the coldest 500 maps I know of. Thank you for verifying that I'm not extrapolating wishes out of this stuff.

[Tom]

Holy smokes, today's seasonal JMA came out and you can't draw out a better DJF pattern.  My goodness, inclusively speaking, this will hands down be one of the best winter seasons in recent history for a lot of us on this sub.

[CentralNebWeather]

Holy smokes, today's seasonal JMA came out and you can't draw out a better DJF pattern.  My goodness, inclusively speaking, this will hands down be one of the best winter seasons in recent history for a lot of us on this sub.

Thanks Tom.  You know we have already had quite a bit of snow and cold, that people are complaining about our  weather pattern and hoping for spring.  I nicely point out that winter doesn't officially start until Dec. 22nd.   They usually scowl and grumble at me as I smile.  

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks Tom. You know we have already had quite a bit of snow and cold, that people are complaining about our weather pattern and hoping for spring. I nicely point out that winter doesn't officially start until Dec. 22nd. They usually scowl and grumble at me as I smile.

Exactly what I was telling someone yesterday...

Them: I hate the cold

Me: Gonna be a long 6 months for you then isn't it.

[CentralNebWeather]

Exactly what I was telling someone yesterday...

Them: I hate the cold

Me: Gonna be a long 6 months for you then isn't it.

 

Exactly what I was telling someone yesterday...

Them: I hate the cold

Me: Gonna be a long 6 months for you then isn't it.

Hearing complaints from students on how cold it is.  I said you better buy a warmer coat, gloves and a stocking cap.  I can't believe the amount of kids that come to school in t-shirts, shorts, and tennis shoes (these are not poor students).  They say they only have to run from their car to the building so why wear a coat or pants.  I question them on what would happen if they had car problems.

[Grizzcoat]

 A Winter Outlook from Am WX-

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51698-my-winter-outlook-2018-19/

 

Also- PP from Accuweather has his forecast out. It is not good for snow lovers as much if not all of this sub forum is below avg on snowfall and temps slightly above. He is not buying the Modoki El Nino but calling it a hybrid. He has the East Coast getting hammered.  Imagine that. Has KMSP at 37.0" and Chicago at 30.0" for total snowfall

[gabel23]

Very interesting read that a local met posted yesterday. His winter forecast comes out on Thursday just like Gary lezaks, can’t wait to see them!

 

https://twitter.com/deanwysockiklkn/status/1062181504015581184

 

My prediction is there forecast goes something like this:

 

We will be influenced by a southwesterly flow for about two weeks at the beginning of each cycle. This is were places along and north of I-70 stand the best chance of picking up most of the snow for the winter; if you would go with a 50 day cycle then you would expect the first show to start just after thanksgiving. Then it would return somewhere between Christmas and New Years. The rest of the cycle would be greatly influenced by a northwesterly flow. I never thought I would say this but I hope supression isn’t a major influence this winter because of the amount of cold air pressing southward. We have experienced this with Galveston Texas receiving their earliest snow in history! Overall I think all areas east of the Rockies will have a rock solid and overall one of the coldest winters in the past couple decades....just my opinion.

[Tom]

This is interesting, NWS offices across the nation will be using a different warning called the "Snow Squall"...

 

 

NWS Chicago

‏Verified account @NWSChicago 9m9 minutes ago

More

New for 2018-19, NWS offices nationwide will be issuing short-fused Snow Squall Warnings. They will be focused on distinct areas, similar to tornado & severe t-storm warnings

 

[jaster220]

"It may be somewhat counter-intuitive, but the research I've read actually indicates that descending westerly QBO/low flux couplets aid in vortex stabilization in the upper levels. It's actually the least perturbed state insofar as technical sudden stratospheric warming events. However, like I delineated in the outlook, I don't think this should be of significant concern to anyone this particular year due to other factors which suggest tropospheric blocking. The still negative 50mb QBO, conducive wave driving, torque events, among other variables such as enhanced BDC/ozone transport, will keep the lower stratosphere + troposphere more perturbed this winter."

 

 

As I figured, we won't need to hope for an SSWE this winter the way we normally would when all the cold is sitting way up over the pole or over Siberia. He gives the science that supports my gut instinct

[jaster220]

A Winter Outlook from Am WX-

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51698-my-winter-outlook-2018-19/

 

Also- PP from Accuweather has his forecast out. It is not good for snow lovers as much if not all of this sub forum is below avg on snowfall and temps slightly above. He is not buying the Modoki El Nino but calling it a hybrid. He has the East Coast getting hammered.  Imagine that. Has KMSP at 37.0" and Chicago at 30.0" for total snowfall

Amwx shows Mich above normal snow fall on every monthly map, yet the DJF map shows average. I will take my winter 1 month at a time in that case, lol

[jaster220]

This is interesting, NWS offices across the nation will be using a different warning called the "Snow Squall"...

 

 

 

Already saw the new red color on the conus map. Was deployed in PA last Saturday iirc. Not sure what took so long to get this tbh?

[OKwx2k4]

Hearing complaints from students on how cold it is. I said you better buy a warmer coat, gloves and a stocking cap. I can't believe the amount of kids that come to school in t-shirts, shorts, and tennis shoes (these are not poor students). They say they only have to run from their car to the building so why wear a coat or pants. I question them on what would happen if they had car problems.

They end up on some stupid episode of "I Shouldn't Be Alive" or something. Lol.

 

Up there, you legitimately die of hypothermia. There are some young folks that don't know what (even late 80s early 90s) winter really is here in the central states. Three, maybe four winters in the last 20 isn't much to gain perspective from.

[OKwx2k4]

Holy smokes, today's seasonal JMA came out and you can't draw out a better DJF pattern. My goodness, inclusively speaking, this will hands down be one of the best winter seasons in recent history for a lot of us on this sub.

That's insane. Wow. Best one I have ever saw. That's the winter of a lifetime.

[CentralNebWeather]

They end up on some stupid episode of "I Shouldn't Be Alive" or something. Lol.

 

Up there, you legitimately die of hypothermia. There are some young folks that don't know what (even late 80s early 90s) winter really is here in the central states. Three, maybe four winters in the last 20 isn't much to gain perspective from.

 

They end up on some stupid episode of "I Shouldn't Be Alive" or something. Lol.

 

Up there, you legitimately die of hypothermia. There are some young folks that don't know what (even late 80s early 90s) winter really is here in the central states. Three, maybe four winters in the last 20 isn't much to gain perspective from.

Have to say these students are usually the same ones that say the classrooms and building are cold.  I point out that those of us in the room that have on pants, long sleeve shirts, jackets, etc. are very comfortable.  

[Madtown]

oh boy

[Minny_Weather]

Snowfall Forecast 2018-19 Season

 

Black Hills of South Dakota: 100" - 200"

Lincoln, Nebraska: 6"

Chicago / O'Hare: 5"

Omaha, Nebraska: 4"

Tulsa, Oklahoma: 2"

 

Enjoy; and remember; all the forces in the Universe cannot alter that which Must Be!

Rochester, MN: 86"

Norfolk, NE: 83"

 

Can't believe you forgot to include those

[jaster220]

Snowfall Forecast 2018-19 Season

 

Black Hills of South Dakota: 100" - 200"

Lincoln, Nebraska: 6"

Chicago / O'Hare: 5"

Omaha, Nebraska: 4"

Tulsa, Oklahoma: 2"

 

Enjoy; and remember; all the forces in the Universe cannot alter that which Must Be!

 

What? No snow in The Hills????? Remember, if you don't have a picture, it never happened.

[jaster220]

That's deep...almost as deep as the 2 inches at the Detroit Airport!

Niko's place is 30 miles north of DTW. Huge difference. 12z Euro gives me 0.3" qpf as Snow by Friday. Can't wait to shovel, again

[jaster220]

oh boy

What was the famous line from The Shining?

[gabel23]

Looks to me like Lezak is calling for an active storm pattern that would be great for a lot of us!! I'm thinking though suppression is gonna be a major player this winter; which could limit snow totals for areas north and west of his storm track. The good news though is he is calling for below normal temps which hopefully means what snow you get sticks around for longer periods of time. 

[Clinton]

Lezak released this as part of his Winter Forecast .

 

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/116-640x360.png

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks to me like Lezak is calling for an active storm pattern that would be great for a lot of us!! I'm thinking though suppression is gonna be a major player this winter; which could limit snow totals for areas north and west of his storm track. The good news though is he is calling for below normal temps which hopefully means what snow you get sticks around for longer periods of time. 

I would think that would be good for the Southern part of Nebraska as some of those storms would be a little north of this dominant track.  Could you imagine if we get more snow than the Dakotas?  

[Tom]

I began writing up my Winter Outlook yesterday morning and planned on putting it up this morning but I had to finish up some stuff around the house that needed my attention. With that being said, here is my written summary.

 

"I sit here this morning, evaluating all the information I have gathered since I've been diligently studying and analyzing the wx pattern from the LRC's inception in early October. I'm both fascinated and in awe by what nature has been delivering. I must say, I haven't been this excited for all the members on here to be able to collectively experience the wrath of Ol' Man Winter this season. A lot of our southern members have lacked much, of any, wintry wx of substance during the past 3 seasons....that's about to change this winter. Here is my Winter Outlook for our sub forum and it will be characterized by several different Exhibits. 1) SW Flow 2) Polar Vortex/NW Flow 3) Strat/SSW/Blocking

 

First off, I apologize in advance for not having a pretty snowfall and temp map for my Winter Outlook. With that being said, let's dive in...

 

We began the October pattern right out of the gates with a strong SW Flow, which set up a very wet/active pattern that lead us into a wet/cold month of October. Even though the month started off rather warm across the eastern CONUS, I don't think this dominant ridge will be much of an impact during the cold season. The EC ridge will show itself from time to time, but more so, during the late Spring/Summer months when the jet is weaker. Once we flipped the calendar into November, the domination of a trough centered across the central CONUS leads me to believe that there will be some vicious arctic outbreaks this season along with the potential for several Blizzards and/or powerful winter storms.

 

IMO, there are going to be 2 hot spots this cold season: 1) central/southern Plains/MW (NE/IA and points south) and near the Lower GL's/OV. It has become rather clear that nature wants to balance out the regions which have been neglected over the past several seasons and has created a dominant STJ right through our southern tier of the sub. Now, with that in mind, our northern tier is probably going to have a cold, but less active season, partly due to suppression/extensive blocking. Although, there will be exhibits of a dominant northern stream mid/late winter which can produce hybrid clippers and/or PAC moisture laden storm systems that can lay down snows of significance.

 

I've long believed, and it is clearly becoming evident, that North America will be dominated by the Polar Vortex. The signals from nature were becoming clear to me back in September when I saw an early build up of snow across N Canada. The "Nanook from the North" will have no problems making continuous visits as the amplified North American pattern will easily dislodge the Polar Vortex, quite possibly "Split" very early this season....in December??? We may be on the verge of a record setting blocking pattern and/or Strat event next month. We'll see.

 

Last, but not least, we will finish off where I think the all important snowfall potential lies across the board. From what I'm seeing, places from the 4 corners/TX Panhandle/S Plains/MW and up the OV/Lower GL's will be centered in the much AN snowfall category. The Dakotas and MN/WI, sadly, may not have the greatest of season for big snows but they will be in the ice box and likely have a long winter with extensive snow pack/cover for the duration of this expected long winter season. Snow-on-Snow will not be a problem and quite common from Alberta Clipper type systems. I do not see any real significant "pullbacks" during the DJF period for much of the northern tier. However, the southern tier reminds me of what happened in 2009-10 due to the extensive blocking pattern which, in all likelihood, will impact/energize the STJ and allow for some real Powerhouse storms to develop.

 

Folks, this is going to be one of those seasons, whereby, in early January, we'll see a large chunk of the USA underneath a snow cover. I believe a tale of the '77/'78, '09/'10 & '13/14' seasons will transpire. A flavor of the extreme cold, powerful winter storms and extensive blocking. There are numerous storm tracks that literally cover all of us on here and there seemingly lacks any "boring" periods (except for the northern tier) and also some periods in the central Plains when the NW flow dominates. Bias aside, I think a few spots across the lower GL's and into the S MW/Plains/OV have a good possibility at setting snowfall records this season.

 

I apologize for not composing a pretty snowfall/temp map and I hope that my written explanation can provide all of you some value. Gear up for an exciting season and a memorable one for many!"

 

FWIW, after seeing Gary's outlook, my call mirrors what he's seeing but I do think that early on in the season the storm track won't be as suppressed which leaves room for places like NE/IA/S MN/WI into N IL and the Lower GL's to cash in Bigly. Mind you, this is for the DJF period and that leaves the door open for big time March/April snows for those up north. Nonetheless, it's going to be a longgg season and quite a wintry one. The GL's will be on fire with LES early and often until they start freezing up mid/late winter.

 

BTW, should we do another Snowfall Contest? Maybe do it month-to-month or even per winter storm??? If you have any ideas, your thoughts would be appreciated.

[Clinton]

Tom, great write up and I enjoy reading your thoughts on winter, and I think you have nailed this years pattern.  I completely agree with your take on the cold, I have had only 1 day since Oct 6 with above normal temps.  Snow on top of snow is a little rare in my neck of the woods but I have a good feeling that all of us will see that this year. I am excited to see what we all have coming our way the next several months!

[Tom]

Tom, great write up and I enjoy reading your thoughts on winter, and I think you have nailed this years pattern.  I completely agree with your take on the cold, I have had only 1 day since Oct 6 with above normal temps.  Snow on top of snow is a little rare in my neck of the woods but I have a good feeling that all of us will see that this year. I am excited to see what we all have coming our way the next several months!

I appreciate that Clinton...I agree, the ingredients are there in this year's pattern to provide ample opportunities for wintry systems.  The cold is not the question, but as always, we need the storm track and moisture to come with it.  It's been a wet and cold Fall, is a cold/snowy winter forthcoming???  Heck ya man!

[CentralNebWeather]

I appreciate that Clinton...I agree, the ingredients are there in this year's pattern to provide ample opportunities for wintry systems.  The cold is not the question, but as always, we need the storm track and moisture to come with it.  It's been a wet and cold Fall, is a cold/snowy winter forthcoming???  Heck ya man!

Thanks for the work Tom.  I am already way ahead of average with our 8-9" snowfall of last week.  I think the southern half of Nebraska will do better than the northern half if this set up is correct, though not discounting clippers that would still drop powdery snow farther north.

[Stormgeek]

Have fun down there fellas. SPS and I will enjoy our -30. x_x Hopefully the clippers can pull through.

[Tom]

The Euro weeklies keep flashing gold to close out November and open Decembrrrrr!!  One that we will Remember???  Big signal for a dominant -NAO throughout December with ridges/troughs all in the right places to deliver the goods.  FWIW, its seeing a stormy signal leading up to Christmas and the holiday week.  It's finally going to look and feel like Christmas this year.  I just got this good feeling about it for a lot of us on here.  Just hope we don't see a warm cutter!

[jaster220]

"Bias aside, I think a few spots across the lower GL's and into the S MW/Plains/OV have a good possibility at setting snowfall records this season."

 

Awesome forecast my man! Kudos on the bold call I quoted. I like S Plains & MO for record locations. Ofc seeing what the Pioneer showed for DJF precip patterns would require an expansion plan lol

 

Need to double check my regional numbers, but after this storm, an all-time snowy November is on the table here, not just best of my adult life as originally stated.

[jaster220]

The Euro weeklies keep flashing gold to close out November and open Decembrrrrr!!  One that we will Remember???  Big signal for a dominant -NAO throughout December with ridges/troughs all in the right places to deliver the goods.  FWIW, its seeing a stormy signal leading up to Christmas and the holiday week.  It's finally going to look and feel like Christmas this year.  I just got this good feeling about it for a lot of us on here.  Just hope we don't see a warm cutter!

Appreciate that Euro update!

 

Another common theme are these double-barrelled storms. Today yet another one!

 

Need just one of them to merge, or at least go N. Stream dominant instead of bombing the EC weenies every time. Prolly too risky wrt temps attm, but later on it should work just fine

[gabel23]

As I mentioned earlier in the week; local met put out his winter forecast and he has two dominant patterns. One is the golden southwesterly flow; more so taking on the panhandle hooker look to it. Normally that bodes well for places along and south of I-80 from the front range up towards Detroit. The second pattern he has is the NW flow. Overall he is predicting a colder than normal winter for most with the heaviest snow lining up pretty much like Gary Lezak has. I have to ask myself does he go pretty much off of him or what?! For those of you who follow Gary watch this video and tell me how he is not either connected with or just has the same belief as him!