Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

[OKwx2k4]

Wait till OKwx2k4 sees the map above for Oklahoma......

[OKwx2k4]

Here's an interesting call. A totally different set of analogs. Keeps winter inland from the EC which conflicts with most other's expectations.

 

20181007 Random outlook.png

 

Many on the EC are torn on whether a -NAO sets up and helps deliver this winter's potential to their back yards, so this may have merit. Those torching EC SST's may be difficult to overcome without a stout -NAO.

 

Latest Euro chucks the ECoasters some Feb eye-candy. It may end up that the early half of winter is Midwest friendly, then the EC jackpots for a month or so around Feb time frame (aligns great with Ok2Kwx's 1899 analog). March/April TBD as to who wins..

 

20181005 Euro winter outlook.PNG

I don't even have to work at it when its that easy. Lol. Super nice!

[Niko]

Accu-Weather says, El Nino plays a role this Winter w below normal snowfall for the Gl's region ...........

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-2019-us-winter-forecast-storms-to-target-mid-atlantic-snow-and-ice-to-strike-the-southern-plains/70006208

[james1976]

Accu-Weather says, El Nino plays a role this Winter w below normal snowfall for the Gl's region ...........

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-2019-us-winter-forecast-storms-to-target-mid-atlantic-snow-and-ice-to-strike-the-southern-plains/70006208

And it actually says it wont be a big year for snow in Chicago and Minneapolis lol. We'll see about that.

[Niko]

And it actually says it wont be a big year for snow in Chicago and Minneapolis lol. We'll see about that.

Yup..don't think I agree w them. Could they be right, yes, but I think they are missing a few key players that lead to a cold, snowy Winter here and other cities as well.

[jaster220]

Accu-Weather says, El Nino plays a role this Winter w below normal snowfall for the Gl's region ...........

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-2019-us-winter-forecast-storms-to-target-mid-atlantic-snow-and-ice-to-strike-the-southern-plains/70006208

 

Had watched it a couple days ago and deemed it not worth posting. Seriously??  Cut-n-pastelok is a warminista parot for that AGW group at Accuwx. Just have to mention "El Nino" and they immediately role out the much above normal regime typical only in the strongest canonical Nino events as if that's the ONLY outcome of a Nino ENSO. And which, in this case isn't even reaching official thresholds and may not make it at all.

[possum]

My prior posts on my analog-based call for the winter was lacking a precip pattern map, but here's one based on 3 of the top analog seasons fwiw:

 

20181003 Winter precip for key analog yrs.PNG

 

If I could make an adjustment to this, it would be to include the ArkLaTex region in the above avg precip colors as I feel that a key uniqueness to this upcoming season will be more systems originating down there. Sometimes moving NE, and other times (especially during periods when the NAO is neg) taking a more ENE or even E track.

i tend to agree there.  kinda tracking up the ohio valley is what my gut says.  

[possum]

i have no been able to find anything measurable so ill ask here.  does anyone know in kilauea's summer activity will have any impact on this winter?  i can not find any SO2 measurements nor can i find a baseline for H2SO4 impact. only thing i can find related to the subject is pinetubo caused and avg departure of 1.3 degrees at peak. i do know that kilauea gives off higher than normal levels of sulfur dioxide and the  eruption was exceptionally long lasting considering the amount of venting taking place. anyone have any thoughts?  could help cause our rain events to be snow events.  (one can hope)

[Tom]

Interesting tidbit off of Gary’s blog this morning from one of the bloggers:

 

“The last four days are officially the wettest 4 day stretch in KC weather history. We got 9.79″ of rain officially from 10/6-10/9, beating out the total of 9.48″ from 9/12/1977-9/15/1977! This makes this October the 2nd wettest in KC history, with 21 days left to go! The total this month is 9.97″, only beat by 1941 which had 11.94″ total. “

 

‘77-‘78 analog????

[gabel23]

Interesting tidbit off of Gary’s blog this morning from one of the bloggers:

 

“The last four days are officially the wettest 4 day stretch in KC weather history. We got 9.79″ of rain officially from 10/6-10/9, beating out the total of 9.48″ from 9/12/1977-9/15/1977! This makes this October the 2nd wettest in KC history, with 21 days left to go! The total this month is 9.97″, only beat by 1941 which had 11.94″ total. “

 

‘77-‘78 analog????

I would take that!! Absolute brutal of a winter for us here, not sure of the snowfall in my area but Lincoln, NE received 31.0" and temps from first of Jan. all the way to March were brutually cold; they had a morning low in march reach 19 below zero!! 

[CentralNebWeather]

I would take that!! Absolute brutal of a winter for us here, not sure of the snowfall in my area but Lincoln, NE received 31.0" and temps from first of Jan. all the way to March were brutually cold; they had a morning low in march reach 19 below zero!! 

I know the 70's around here were brutal.  My dad bought snowmobiles thinking it would always be snowy.  After the winter of 83-84 the rest of the 80's were pitiful for snowfall in this area and he ended up selling them.  

[gabel23]

I know the 70's around here were brutal.  My dad bought snowmobiles thinking it would always be snowy.  After the winter of 83-84 the rest of the 80's were pitiful for snowfall in this area and he ended up selling them.  

So funny you say that, my old man and his workers also bought snowmobiles early in the 70's thinking the same thing. Dad told me stories that every winter in the 70's they saw so much snow they would have to haul it out of town. He worked for the city and they would use trucks and haul snow out to the ball fields because so much piled up in town. 

[jaster220]

Interesting tidbit off of Gary’s blog this morning from one of the bloggers:

 

“The last four days are officially the wettest 4 day stretch in KC weather history. We got 9.79″ of rain officially from 10/6-10/9, beating out the total of 9.48″ from 9/12/1977-9/15/1977! This makes this October the 2nd wettest in KC history, with 21 days left to go! The total this month is 9.97″, only beat by 1941 which had 11.94″ total. “

 

‘77-‘78 analog????

 

  IF there were a "double like button" I'd be hitting it, lol. So, JB also mentions in his daily this morning that this month is scarily or eerily paralleling '02 which ofc is one of his top (4) analogs. We know we'll get a "new season" as nothing's a cookie cutter copy of previous years, but WOW at how many similarities from the top analogs are showing up in real time, eh?

[jaster220]

So funny you say that, my old man and his workers also bought snowmobiles early in the 70's thinking the same thing. Dad told me stories that every winter in the 70's they saw so much snow they would have to haul it out of town. He worked for the city and they would use trucks and haul snow out to the ball fields because so much piled up in town. 

 

I was in Ludington along Lake Michigan visiting my sister sometime in January of '79. My dad took me to the barber for a haircut and I remember my dad commenting on how much snow there was along the streets. The barber told my dad that they had already taken the snow away by loader 4X at that point! Can't find data specific to Ludington, but looking at a couple towns a county or two south where snowfall is normally less and seeing mid to upper 60" totals means Ludington may well have had 70+ inches just during that single month. My super-snowy Jan of '14 here in Marshall was only 43" so it's hard to imagine nearly doubling that. Sure places like Tug Hill or the Keewenaw or Mt. Washington get snow like that, but I've never even visited them, let alone lived there during such a stretch. One place I look (Hart MI) had 52.5" in Dec '77 followed by 64.6" January of '78. That had to be fantastic if you owned a snowmobile   

[gabel23]

I was in Ludington along Lake Michigan visiting my sister sometime in January of '79. My dad took me to the barber for a haircut and I remember my dad commenting on how much snow there was along the streets. The barber told my dad that they had already taken the snow away by loader 4X at that point! Can't find data specific to Ludington, but looking at a couple towns a county or two south where snowfall is normally less and seeing mid to upper 60" totals means Ludington may well have had 70+ inches just during that single month. My super-snowy Jan of '14 here in Marshall was only 43" so it's hard to imagine nearly doubling that. Sure places like Tug Hill or the Keewenaw or Mt. Washington get snow like that, but I've never even visited them, let alone lived there during such a stretch. One place I look (Hart MI) had 52.5" in Dec '77 followed by 64.6" January of '78. That had to be fantastic if you owned a snowmobile   

Our snowiest season (at least closest to my area) would be Grand Island, Ne. They receieved 86.7" of snow in 1914-15. That was for the entire season; I couldn't imagine seeing 53" in one month followed by 65" the next?! That would be an amazing site to see. The most snow I have seen in my lifetime was 2009-2010; both in terms of snow on the ground and total. The winter of 2000-2001 was good for us too but that winter of 09-10 was something special. My area had a two foot snow depth for a month and the total for the season was over 50". 

[OKwx2k4]

Interesting tidbit off of Gary’s blog this morning from one of the bloggers:

 

“The last four days are officially the wettest 4 day stretch in KC weather history. We got 9.79″ of rain officially from 10/6-10/9, beating out the total of 9.48″ from 9/12/1977-9/15/1977! This makes this October the 2nd wettest in KC history, with 21 days left to go! The total this month is 9.97″, only beat by 1941 which had 11.94″ total. “

 

‘77-‘78 analog????

All of the big 3 are legit analogs, along with 2000, 2002, 1911 and 2009. This is literally insane. Canada is frozen. Likely until next summer. This is going to be a crazy hard winter and it's pretty much going to start 45 days early.

[Tom]

The Ukie for DJF is basically a freezer for the entire nation...except for the inter-mountain west...

 

[jaster220]

The Ukie for DJF is basically a freezer for the entire nation...except for the inter-mountain west...

 

 

Is that graph in Kelvin deg's? Looks like it, but hoping not. We're ALL in world of hurt if it is     

 

[OKwx2k4]

Is that graph in Kelvin deg's? Looks like it, but hoping not. We're ALL in world of hurt if it is

 

K to F deg's.JPG

Lol. Brrr!

[OKwx2k4]

Some things are too perfect to say anything about.

[OKwx2k4]

Theres this stupid slight chance brewing that I see winter-type precip on October 16. I'm not ruling it out after what I'm seeing tonight. This is nuts.

[Tom]

Some things are too perfect to say anything about.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_13.png

This system has your region highlighted several times this season.  Hope you get buried!

[Tom]

The latest JAMSTEC model run has come in and I believe it is off its rocker with a mega Nino for this Winter.  Ummm, ya right...I'm not sure what data this model is using, but this does not make any sense to me at all.  Nonetheless, here is a anti-model run for you to ponder on.

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1oct2018.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2019.1oct2018.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2019.1oct2018.gif

[Tom]

Is that graph in Kelvin deg's? Looks like it, but hoping not. We're ALL in world of hurt if it is     

 

K to F deg's.JPG

What is very interesting about this map, is the coldest anomalies are centered across the CONUS when compare the entire Northern Hemisphere.  It's our turn this year amigo!  #IceAge

[Tom]

Ukie Precip...very active STJ...

 

[Niko]

Holy Macro...... UKMET is BRRRRRRRRRRR.

It shows the most intense cold air on the planet located over the Northern Hemisphere (USA) during winter 2018-19. Man, that's frigid.

[jaster220]

The latest JAMSTEC model run has come in and I believe it is off its rocker with a mega Nino for this Winter.  Ummm, ya right...I'm not sure what data this model is using, but this does not make any sense to me at all.  Nonetheless, here is a anti-model run for you to ponder on.

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1oct2018.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2019.1oct2018.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2019.1oct2018.gif

 

Maybe that's the model JB's using to balance his winter outlook call  . As posted yesterday, he's seeing Oct dealing out some dead-nuts parallels to his 02-03 analog. Only problem working against him at the moment appears to be that 3 of his top 4 analogs (02-03, 09-10, 14-15) were MODERATE NINOs. So far, aside from said JAMSTEC, nothing else seems to be pointing that way. He ofc, could still end up scoring very well and it may be due to some other side factors, who knows? Certainly interesting to follow this as it plays out tho! Has to be one of the most exciting prospective winter seasons of my adult lifetime. Glad for this active forum to interact with other good peeps who are passionate for our sub's region! 

[indianajohn]

WOW snowing in Streator,Illinois.. Reported big wet flakes!!! First snow of the Season!!! 

 

[Andie]

My prior posts on my analog-based call for the winter was lacking a precip pattern map, but here's one based on 3 of the top analog seasons fwiw:

 

20181003 Winter precip for key analog yrs.PNG

 

If I could make an adjustment to this, it would be to include the ArkLaTex region in the above avg precip colors as I feel that a key uniqueness to this upcoming season will be more systems originating down there. Sometimes moving NE, and other times (especially during periods when the NAO is neg) taking a more ENE or even E track.

Jaster.....just spotted this. I think you're onto something regarding Ark, La, Tx but I'd throw in Okla for good measure.

It has been very different down here since the high heat broke in early August. Like a switch was flipped.

Something is definitely afoot.

Hope you'll stay on the Southern Plains more. The depth of this winter may be very interesting.

I'm expecting more snow this winter. (JFM)

[indianajohn]

Probably not the right post to share but have you guys seen the Hurricane footage from Mexico beach? Storm Chaser Mark Sudduth caught this and it unbelievable!!!

 

https://youtu.be/f3ofAJSqpLM

[OKwx2k4]

Probably not the right post to share but have you guys seen the Hurricane footage from Mexico beach? Storm Chaser Mark Sudduth caught this and it unbelievable!!!

 

Absolutely ridiculous. Crazy.

[OKwx2k4]

Depending upon whatever flavor of seasonal you like, I've noticed that whatever pattern we get to on each of them, it virtually doesn't weak down after. Not all the way through April. CFS trends (last 3 days) in the monthly/seasonal sense are now catching the pullback (retrogression) of the PAC ridge and cross-polar connection. Colder long-range models are in the cards for the future. It's not hype this time at all.

[Tom]

Last night, the JMA monthlies came out and basically indicate to me that winter will come out of the gates early this year.  Last month, the model was suggesting a trough in the west and ridge in the east.  That has since flipped and now is showing a ridge in the west, trough in the east.  Yet again, another good example of the models having a difficult time figuring out how to handle the west coast pattern due to the extremely warm waters tucked into the NE PAC.  If the model is right, and we do in fact have the ridge in the west and trough across the eastern 2/3 rd's of the nation, the LRC will be set and I find no reason to doubt that we will have a cold/stormy winter from the Plains into the East.  I'm worried about suppression Jan/Feb across the MW and Upper MW.  Keep that in the back of your mind.  Although, you get one big storm to dump a lot of snow and that will make up for it.

 

Anyhow, here we go...Giddy up!

 

I like the look in November suggesting near normal temps, with above normal precip chances.  I'm still looking for a pullback sometime in November, just not sure when yet.  Nonetheless, Nov temps look pretty normal...warm start, cold finish???  

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201810.D0800_gl2.png

 

This 500mb pattern is ideal for troughs to keep coming into CA/SW and track into the heartland...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201810.D0800_gl0.png

 

 

December...

 

Temps...I think they are too warm, but not a bad look....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201810.D0800_gl2.png

 

 

Bearing Sea Trough looks prime...downstream trough across the Eastern CONUS...

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201810.D0800_gl0.png

 

 

 

January....

 

Temps...this looks Brutal to me, prob worse than Jan '14 if it comes into fruition...#IceboxNation

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201810.D0800_gl2.png

 

Blocking over the Pole/Greenland...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201810.D0800_gl0.png

 

 

[Tom]

Let's take a temperature (pun intended) on what has been transpiring across N.A., specifically Canada, as we approach the middle of October.  You can argue that winter began in earnest across portions of southern and northern Canada in Sept, but since the beginning of October, snow fall has been on fire as "home brewed" cold air is beginning to engulf our neighbors to the north.  "If you build it, they will come"....Ice and Snow have been building across the Archipelago/Hudson Bay regions to the north and this is where the "Vortex" will set up shop (yesterday actually) and literally sit and spin, sending lobes of cold air into the U.S. for the remainder of the month.

 

North American snow cover index is blowing past decadal highs...

 

 

 

 

Nearly 70% (best guess) of Canada has snow OTG...the southern 2/3rd's of Canada is basically a month or more ahead of schedule.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In a nutshell, what more could you ask from Nature if you are hoping for a cold winter???  The facts are right in front of us and I'm even more convinced, we are on the verge of something truly Spectacular this coming cold season.  Good times ahead!

[OKwx2k4]

This is incredible stuff to see. Just like my post says. It's unrelenting after it starts again in November. Some folks better use the last opportunity they have to get ready for early winter. How fast the switch really did flip from speculation to reality this year is just ridiculous.

[Tom]

I’m not an expert, but I’d prefer a trough in the West. That puts my area (KC) in a good position for 4-Corners and Texas panhandle storms. Won’t a ridge in the West prevent potent, wet storms from from forming? Seems that an eastern trough benefits the east coast with Nor’easters.

Not necessarily.  As long as the mean ridge is located from, say, the PAC NW and points north into AK, storms will track into Cali/4 corners.  You can see this pattern developing now and in the longer range.  On top of that, we will have an El Nino season, so mind you, the STJ will be active.  I think KC and places in this region are in the jack zone.  You guys will have plenty of opportunities this season.

[Tom]

This is incredible stuff to see. Just like my post says. It's unrelenting after it starts again in November. Some folks better use the last opportunity they have to get ready for early winter. How fast the switch really did flip from speculation to reality this year is just ridiculous.

It's like a dream, now we just need nature to do her work...I've been waiting a long time to see a season I've always wished for to happen.  Besides '13-'14, I think this season will be more widespread with the snow and cold.  

[Tom]

Dr. Cohen and myself are on the same page I say...I literally posted about this 1 hr before he did...Is the Universe guiding us???

 

 

Judah Cohen

‏ @judah47 3h3 hours ago

More

Oh #Canada! #Snow cover advance continues at a near record pace across Canada so far this fall even surpassing the total across #Siberia, a rare feat. Is Canada trying to send a message about this #winter to its southern neighbor?

 

 

[jaster220]

Dr. Cohen and myself are on the same page I say...I literally posted about this 1 hr before he did...Is the Universe guiding us???

 

Great minds think alike.   On JB's Saturday Summary he went over the latest JMA and pointed to it's portrayal of a nasty cold-n-stormy DJF over basically most of the CONUS. He has yet to tweak his early August map but has mentioned at least twice pulling the BN temps lines further NW from where he had them. Also mentioned this time extending the AN snowfall west across TX into perhaps the mountains of the SW states. I will say that the JMA combo temps map looks to have the coldest departures centered more over the OHV similar to the analog maps. I'm curious to see if/when he decides to make a move with his maps?

[Tom]

I hope you're right.  When I think of a western ridge, I think of the last two years where KC got no good winter weather because winter storms couldn't form far enough south to provide any snow.  Some cold, yes.  But no organized storms.  A pattern that may benefit folks from about Chicago east into the GL.  But those of us west of the Mississippi and south of the 40th Parallel were stuck with glancing blows of cold air that moved off to the east and took the snow with them.  I think of something like this: 

 

I'm not saying that we won't see a NW Flow pattern at times this season, which will happen from time to time, but a flow out of the SW seems like it will be more common than not this year.  For instance, this coming week suggests to me Exhibit B of the LRC will prob feature some NW Flow/Clipper pattern which does not help your region.