Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

[Tom]

Great minds think alike.   On JB's Saturday Summary he went over the latest JMA and pointed to it's portrayal of a nasty cold-n-stormy DJF over basically most of the CONUS. He has yet to tweak his early August map but has mentioned at least twice pulling the BN temps lines further NW from where he had them. Also mentioned this time extending the AN snowfall west across TX into perhaps the mountains of the SW states. I will say that the JMA combo temps map looks to have the coldest departures centered more over the OHV similar to the analog maps. I'm curious to see if/when he decides to make a move with his maps?

Take a look at the snowfall anomalies created off of the Euro Monthlies from Ben Noll.  It literally starts snowing in Nov and lasts through Mar across our entire sub forum.  This is amazing if it comes close to what I'm thinking.

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1051777973290844162

[Tom]

Boy, oh boy, those NE PAC waters are torching!  Nearly +5C above normal SST's hugging the AK shorelines...I think we see the Euro weeklies trend colder today.  The CFSv2 weeklies are now trending cold all the way through at least mid November.  We may not even see an extended pullback and that would be an incredible feat if that indeed does happen.  Maybe brief "reloading" periods???  I'm looking for reasons for a pullback, but not finding any.  #FairandBalanced

 

[jaster220]

Take a look at the snowfall anomalies created off of the Euro Monthlies from Ben Noll.  It literally starts snowing in Nov and lasts through Mar across our entire sub forum.  This is amazing if it comes close to what I'm thinking.

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1051777973290844162

 

It certainly looks more consistently wintery than the bipolar stuff we've had since 13-14. Not sure I like the well BN snowfall it portrays across SMI for Jan and Feb but it is only one model's guess on the pattern details from this range. Having said that, and per my earlier comments that 77-78 here would've been BN sans the Bomb it's not out of the question I suppose. If the pattern to date is any indication, what I'm seeing so far has the truly dynamic storms in the S Plains, with a weakening structure or left-over moisture up my way unlike 13-14 when most systems peaked up this way. Could this change as we get into the real cold season? I suppose, but as of right now my call for Avg to above snow here will be leaning on longevity of the overall first to last flakes, and not so much on primary storm track and big storms. As you posted the other day, we could indeed see cold like 13-14 but I have my doubts about getting into the jack-zone like we had that season here in SWMI. I also think Chicago is due and yby is in a better place than mine. I could see you benefiting from a NE flow and lake enhancement adding to your totals as systems come northeast.

[jaster220]

Boy, oh boy, those NE PAC waters are torching!  Nearly +5C above normal SST's hugging the AK shorelines...I think we see the Euro weeklies trend colder today.  The CFSv2 weeklies are now trending cold all the way through at least mid November.  We may not even see an extended pullback and that would be an incredible feat if that indeed does happen.  Maybe brief "reloading" periods???  I'm looking for reasons for a pullback, but not finding any.  #FairandBalanced

 

 

Brief reloads is the direction to lean if you ask me. Pretty much what JB's saying with his comments that the MJO will re-loop thru 8-1-2 phases. Prolly won't have to worry about the month-long torches we witnessed during Dec of '14 and '15 taking out an entire month of winter possibilities. We actually had crappy Dec's in '11-'15 other than '13 so we still have some balancing to do imho.

[Stormgeek]

Take a look at the snowfall anomalies created off of the Euro Monthlies from Ben Noll.  It literally starts snowing in Nov and lasts through Mar across our entire sub forum.  This is amazing if it comes close to what I'm thinking.

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1051777973290844162

Rest in peace SPS and I if this verifies lol. Looks like the cold desert out here. 

[possum]

NW TN looks above agv. snow all the way through!!  not saying much anymore though. i wish for the storms from when i was a kid.  snow otg for most of the entire winter.. decent stroms and real cold weather.  (we got a taste last year with one day the high was 7 where i was at.  that is incredibly cold for here now)

[OKwx2k4]

I spend a good 3 months getting nailed there. 4 if you count November. There may be such a thing as too much winter. But, oooooh my, you know I'm going to enjoy trying to find out if there is!!

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies came in cold for Weeks 3-4...this is impressive if indeed there isn't really any pullback coming...

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Sadly, I think hour 792 is the best "pullback" we may see. The pattern doesn't budge. It just builds then blocks. Insane.

[Tom]

The IRII came out yesterday and its leaning on the warmer side of things across the CONUS, except for the SE.  While it could be right, it has been trending warmer overall since it's August run.  Something to consider.

 

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Euro Weeklies came in cold for Weeks 3-4...this is impressive if indeed there isn't really any pullback coming...

Also came in troughy too. Someone in our sub could see a storm in the first couple weeks of November.

[GDR]

[Andie]

Take a look at the snowfall anomalies created off of the Euro Monthlies from Ben Noll. It literally starts snowing in Nov and lasts through Mar across our entire sub forum. This is amazing if it comes close to what I'm thinking.

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1051777973290844162

Wow! Even the Southern Plains will see snow if I'm reading that right. Reminds me of the winter of '09 here, if I'm recalling the snowy winter correctly.

 

We received another 1.50" rain overnight. .......That's over 6.50" the past 3 days.

It's still raining here.

And rain in forecast through next few days. Just think, if this was snow!?

[Andie]

I spend a good 3 months getting nailed there. 4 if you count November. There may be such a thing as too much winter. But, oooooh my, you know I'm going to enjoy trying to find out if there is!!

We'll bear up together OKwx. Let's see how much we miss those 110-115* days this last July!

[OKwx2k4]

We'll bear up together OKwx. Let's see how much we miss those 110-115* days this last July!

Lol. Yeah. We'll keep the southern part anchored down here. This is going to be fun.

[Niko]

The south is gonna have it rough this Winter w lots of potential in regards to snow and ice. Kinda like a battlezone between airmasses.....current thinking is more frozen than liquid.

[Niko]

[gabel23]

This article was posted by my favorite meteorologist of all time. Certainly an interesting read!

 

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth/the-arctic-is-36-degrees-f-warmer-than-normal/?linkid=31327062&utm_source=FBPAGE&utm_medium=social&utm_term=20181013&utm_content=1828288228&utm_campaign=NOVA+Next&linkId=58113859

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Looks like every winter forecast I see come from someone who lives on the east coast lol. Warm west cold east!

[hlcater]

Looks like every winter forecast I see come from someone who lives on the east coast lol. Warm west cold east!

 

Relevant

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Relevant

 

So true.

[jaster220]

This article was posted by my favorite meteorologist of all time. Certainly an interesting read!

 

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth/the-arctic-is-36-degrees-f-warmer-than-normal/?linkid=31327062&utm_source=FBPAGE&utm_medium=social&utm_term=20181013&utm_content=1828288228&utm_campaign=NOVA+Next&linkId=58113859

 

It's dated Nov of 2016. What did you find interesting if I might ask?

[gabel23]

It's dated Nov of 2016. What did you find interesting if I might ask?

The fact when the pole warms it dislodges cold to lower 48, I think that would correspond to a negative AO? That spells good news for all of us. Didn’t realize the article was outdated; I was just excited to see another reason for us possibly having a cold winter. That meteorologist just lost some respect to me as he mentioned that was something recent!

[jaster220]

The fact when the pole warms it dislodges cold to lower 48, I think that would correspond to a negative AO? That spells good news for all of us. Didn’t realize the article was outdated; I was just excited to see another reason for us possibly having a cold winter.

 

Ahh, roger that. Yeah, it's been discussed quite a bit and even some high-level papers have been written about why the mid latitudes have had such cold winters while the Arctic has been mild (won't call it warm, lol). The melting of the sea ice, is that the result or the trigger? Not sure anyone's come to a solid conclusion on that question yet. I found it funny that the article dates to Nov of 2016 when we were all expecting a snap-back from mega-Nino the prior year. They even hint in the story that they were expecting serious cold. Nature had the last laugh as we got the opposite in the form of the delayed Nino effects, and one of the warmer winters of recent memory. Somebody else on here mentioned that Russia had like 3 winters in a row where it was super cold and snowy. Now, I think they were hinting that it may be that has flipped to our side of the hemisphere for this winter. That's certainly looking very possible so far..

[jaster220]

Here in Marshall, October snow (at least measurable amt) is not the norm. Of the last 5 autumns the only Oct snow I've recorded was in (you guessed it) 2013. I do recall some snow at night during Oct of '09 but that was a couple years prior to beginning records of snowfall here at my place. So, while it's not necessarily a predictor of how snowy a winter will be, one could make an argument that Oct snow for mby is loosely a predictor of how cold a winter will be. Other Oct snows since I moved here include 2006 and I think 2002 possibly as well. Both were in my analog table so there's that as well.

 

We've got plenty of time left this month to add another to my list so let's see how it plays out. With so many to my west (even SW) having seen flakes fly, I'd say the odds are pretty good we can get 'er done

[Andie]

The south is gonna have it rough this Winter w lots of potential in regards to snow and ice. Kinda like a battlezone between airmasses.....current thinking is more frozen than liquid.

Well, I have good tires, front wheel drive and if all else fails, lots of time to stay home.

I agree guys. I'm expecting a heck of a winter.

[Andie]

Total rain tonight 1.75" for the day. More expected over night.

 

The ground is so saturated a tree fell over out on the course.

The ground is like mush.

 

If we continue to have moisture like this all winter, it's going to be a snowy, icy mushy, mess.

Not very Texas-like.

[Minny_Weather]

Ahh, roger that. Yeah, it's been discussed quite a bit and even some high-level papers have been written about why the mid latitudes have had such cold winters while the Arctic has been mild (won't call it warm, lol). The melting of the sea ice, is that the result or the trigger? Not sure anyone's come to a solid conclusion on that question yet. I found it funny that the article dates to Nov of 2016 when we were all expecting a snap-back from mega-Nino the prior year. They even hint in the story that they were expecting serious cold. Nature had the last laugh as we got the opposite in the form of the delayed Nino effects, and one of the warmer winters of recent memory. Somebody else on here mentioned that Russia had like 3 winters in a row where it was super cold and snowy. Now, I think they were hinting that it may be that has flipped to our side of the hemisphere for this winter. That's certainly looking very possible so far..

To their credit, December 2016 was brutally cold and dry here. I think between December 5 and that Christmas we only had 2 or 3 days above freezing. January is when the blowtorch really began here.

[OKwx2k4]

Here in Marshall, October snow (at least measurable amt) is not the norm. Of the last 5 autumns the only Oct snow I've recorded was in (you guessed it) 2013. I do recall some snow at night during Oct of '09 but that was a couple years prior to beginning records of snowfall here at my place. So, while it's not necessarily a predictor of how snowy a winter will be, one could make an argument that Oct snow for mby is loosely a predictor of how cold a winter will be. Other Oct snows since I moved here include 2006 and I think 2002 possibly as well. Both were in my analog table so there's that as well.

 

We've got plenty of time left this month to add another to my list so let's see how it plays out. With so many to my west (even SW) having seen flakes fly, I'd say the odds are pretty good we can get 'er done

With the extra emphasis on my area and Andie's that you're keeping in mind, I think your forecast may take the prize. (Theres just not an analog for here, this year) 77, 02, 09 are good ones to stand by, with 06 sprinkled in.

[Tom]

Here is BAMWx's temp outlook for DJF...

 

[CentralNebWeather]

This is what I had in mind when I mentioned my fears about a western ridge.  Although KC is below normal, it's on the western edge, which I think would lead to glancing blows of cold air and storms developing to the east.  We'll see ...

I am not fan of this either.  These type of setups are bad for Nebraska for the most part as everything heads east.  Hope this isn't correct.

[Minny_Weather]

I am not fan of this either. These type of setups are bad for Nebraska for the most part as everything heads east. Hope this isn't correct.

Yeah that's unnerving. Has 2013-14 written all over it which was an anti-winter for here. Only recent Winter worse for here was 2016-17.

[CentralNebWeather]

Yeah that's unnerving. Has 2013-14 written all over it which was an anti-winter for here. Only recent Winter worse for here was 2016-17.

I was thinking the same thing.  Still early in the game.

[Tom]

IMO, I think blocking will be prevalent this season and there will be more widespread cold. JMA/Euro are certainly on the same page. Not only that but the way the LRC is setting up thus far, and what the models are showing for the next couple weeks, it looks great for practically everyone on here. If you want to escape the cold, head to FL! Snow birds will be flocking there this season.

[snowstorm83]

Jan 1994, 2009, and 2014 all seem similar in that regard. Memorable winters for the Great Lakes, while eastern Nebraska rides the edge of the air masses. Going back and forth from -10 and 60 with very little precipitation. Annoying!

[CentralNebWeather]

Jan 1994, 2009, and 2014 all seem similar in that regard. Memorable winters for the Great Lakes, while eastern Nebraska rides the edge of the air masses. Going back and forth from -10 and 60 with very little precipitation. Annoying!

Best winters in Central Nebraska imo, 1983-1984, 1992-1993, 2000-2001.  

[jaster220]

Jan 1994, 2009, and 2014 all seem similar in that regard. Memorable winters for the Great Lakes, while eastern Nebraska rides the edge of the air masses. Going back and forth from -10 and 60 with very little precipitation. Annoying!

 

True dat. 08-09 and 13-14 were a virtual tie for mby at the 100" threshold. Double the avg here! 93-94 I was getting buried in the snow belts of NMI. That one was totally a LES-belt season. Pretty avg if you weren't in a belt region like down here in Marshall. 

 

Best winters in Central Nebraska imo, 1983-1984, 1992-1993, 2000-2001.  

 

Actually, 83-84 and 00-01 were pretty darn impressive here in The Mitt as well. Dec 2000 ranks number #1 snowy month up the road in Battle Creek at 55.8"

[jaster220]

To their credit, December 2016 was brutally cold and dry here. I think between December 5 and that Christmas we only had 2 or 3 days above freezing. January is when the blowtorch really began here.

 

Odd paradox. Looked back at my daily log and the entire month was a blow-torch here with barely 2.5" of sloppy snow, and ofc that sneet storm on the 28th which kept that month from reaching the "total dumpster fire" category.

[CentralNebWeather]

True dat. 08-09 and 13-14 were a virtual tie for mby at the 100" threshold. Double the avg here! 93-94 I was getting buried in the snow belts of NMI. That one was totally a LES-belt season. Pretty avg if you weren't in a belt region like down here in Marshall.

 

 

Actually, 83-84 and 00-01 were pretty darn impressive here in The Mitt as well. Dec 2000 ranks number #1 snowy month up the road in Battle Creek at 55.8"

I like the sound of that.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Best winters in Central Nebraska imo, 1983-1984, 1992-1993, 2000-2001.  

Why not 2009?