jaster220 Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 @ Tom Did you say JB and/or WxBell had posted a very preliminary Winter Outlook map for temps and/or snow? They had this last August and I don't think it verified at 133% in very many regions outlined for that amt although I did end with 137% Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 Not sure he'd agree. Getting too cold for comfort isn't hard to do out there. Scoring a good storm track is. He'd much rather see that map saying "copious snowfall and snowstorms" That would be nice for a change. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 @ Tom Did you say JB and/or WxBell had posted a very preliminary Winter Outlook map for temps and/or snow? They had this last August and I don't think it verified at 133% in very many regions outlined for that amt although I did end with 137% 20170812 WxBell 2017-18 Snowfall.pngYes, go on their site and you can read the Winter Outlook. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 30, 2018 Report Share Posted August 30, 2018 I'd tend to agree with this. And when it does, it will likely mean the end of my streak of running above avg. That's the bad thing for those who've been enjoying the ride on top. There's only one way to go..True, but even a bad (warm) winter is still winter there. When I was a kid, winters seemed like forever long. Now, it seems like summer lasts forever and winter lasts about a month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 31, 2018 Report Share Posted August 31, 2018 True, but even a bad (warm) winter is still winter there. When I was a kid, winters seemed like forever long. Now, it seems like summer lasts forever and winter lasts about a month. Due to the "backwards spring" that was my April, winter over-stayed it's welcome around here. Solid winter began on Dec 7th with 9 straight days at 32F or below and numerous snows. The bipolar nature of the season meant we got and lost a decent snow-cover numerous times. Had it not been for April's comeback kid stretch, the season would've ended in early March and been 3 months. Pretty typical around here. At my place in the north woods, I had a few that went from Thanksgiving til late April without a complete melt-off. That's just a bit too long for my liking, especially the older I get, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 1, 2018 Report Share Posted September 1, 2018 True, but even a bad (warm) winter is still winter there. When I was a kid, winters seemed like forever long. Now, it seems like summer lasts forever and winter lasts about a month. True, but it is relative. Extremes you can get tho are crazy. Such as 2010-11 vs a complete no-snow winter. Without a ton of LES, my 2016-17 season would've ended up about 20" below normal, but as you say, at least we see some snow even in a dud winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 2, 2018 Report Share Posted September 2, 2018 True, but it is relative. Extremes you can get tho are crazy. Such as 2010-11 vs a complete no-snow winter. Without a ton of LES, my 2016-17 season would've ended up about 20" below normal, but as you say, at least we see some snow even in a dud winter.You are correct. Sometimes I need to be more grateful for the diversity and extremes. That's why weather is such a hobby for me in the winter. The size of a missed call is usually huge here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 2, 2018 Report Share Posted September 2, 2018 I am hoping the models show maps of Winter 2013-14 again. "Very snowy" and "Much below normal temps." Hey Jaster....remember those beautiful maps. The amazing thing is that the Winter forecast back then ended up verifying. Broke all time record snowfall in Detroit and record cold snaps. I remember here in Macomb dropping to an incredible -17F. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Coldest I have ever experienced. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 2, 2018 Report Share Posted September 2, 2018 I am hoping the models show maps of Winter 2013-14 again. "Very snowy" and "Much below normal temps." Hey Jaster....remember those beautiful maps. The amazing thing is that the Winter forecast back then ended up verifying. Broke all time record snowfall in Detroit and record cold snaps. I remember here in Macomb dropping to an incredible -17F. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Coldest I have ever experienced.What is crazy, looking back, is that winter still had untapped potential. There was no southern branch most of the winter with exception to southwesterly flow over cold domes. I'd repeat that one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 What is crazy, looking back, is that winter still had untapped potential. There was no southern branch most of the winter with exception to southwesterly flow over cold domes. I'd repeat that one.Yes, and also, another crazy factor is that every 2 to 3 days, a Winterstorm Watch would be posted for my area. Hardly any mixing issues or even changing to rain. All out snowevents. Just an amazing Winter that lasted well into April. I had snowpiles that remained into May. Btw: what also made that Winter incredible was that snowstorms popped out outta nowhere. Another words, forecasters would call for sunny and frigid for 2 days down the road and then, the next day, you would see heavy snow and wind as an unexpected LP area formed suddenly and would take that perfect track to inundate SEMI w copious amounts of snowfall. Just an phenomenal Winter season that just kept going and going and going. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Yes, and also, another crazy factor is that every 2 to 3 days, a Winterstorm Watch would be posted for my area. Hardly any mixing issues or even changing to rain. All out snowevents. Just an amazing Winter that lasted well into April. I had snowpiles that remained into May. Btw: what also made that Winter incredible was that snowstorms popped out outta nowhere. Another words, forecasters would call for sunny and frigid for 2 days down the road and then, the next day, you would see heavy snow and wind as an unexpected LP area formed suddenly and would take that perfect track to inundate SEMI w copious amounts of snowfall. Just an phenomenal Winter season that just kept going and going and going. You sure you're not related to Yogi Berra? Reading that made me certain there's a connection there somewhere. Might just be NYC but idk?? But on a more serious note. You've done a great job of describing that season for mby on over to yby. We were "ground zero" for everything that season had to offer. What's more amazing is that snow total wise, it just barely beat 08-09 by a nose as they say in the horse racing biz. Mainly tho, 2013-14 had the ferocious and durable cold that was lacking in 07-08 and 08-09. Thus the snow depth and duration of snow cover were off the charts. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 I am hoping the models show maps of Winter 2013-14 again. "Very snowy" and "Much below normal temps." Hey Jaster....remember those beautiful maps. The amazing thing is that the Winter forecast back then ended up verifying. Broke all time record snowfall in Detroit and record cold snaps. I remember here in Macomb dropping to an incredible -17F. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Coldest I have ever experienced. Niko buddy, how can I forget? Here's my fave. Snowday's final call from Nov 19th As you said, the key is that it verified and beyond anyone's wildest imagination. Since Detroit hadn't seen anything like it since 1880-81 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 What is crazy, looking back, is that winter still had untapped potential. There was no southern branch most of the winter with exception to southwesterly flow over cold domes. I'd repeat that one. You're very correct on that, tho with (55) days of measurable snow in mby and 10 plow-worthy events including the CAT-4 big dog, it's an easily missed observation. I will say that from life-long experience, Niko's area (SEMI) needed the domineering cold. Seems that area is always suffering the mixed bag scenario when systems have too much S. Stream component. Here in Marshall I'm more riding the line and will fare much better. As it was, and Niko mentioned the frequency of storms and rumors of storms, we were getting hammered well enough as it was. Snow-on-snow always brings a larger impact factor. And Niko's right about very little mixing issues. We had one or two rains against ten, count 'em TEN storms. And the one week we didn't have a legit snowstorm, we were expecting rain but ended up getting TSSN that morning instead. It was just a magical season. For Michigan, it sounds like very few are in that league. Back to your comments tho of potential left on the table. I've always wondered if a season could come together that featured SMI getting drilled by repeated S. Stream system after system? Was '78-79 basically that for Chicago and the far NW lower Michigan? I don't think so because it's my understanding that a ton of that snow came via LES in the snow belts of NMI and the UP due to frequent clippers. Now, Chicago ofc doesn't get LES with that NW flow pattern so for that region it may indeed have been a parade of S. Stream systems. But I'd have to spend some time looking up week-by-week surface map archives to get a better picture of that season. Also, that white-paper study of '81-82 shows how active a season that was for the state of IL in general, tho less focused on far N IL Now that it's Sept, I'm full on excited to be talking winter. Nothing better than when you're under a threat for a Major storm/blizzard. Here in the GL's we don't get the 4-5 day lock-n-loaded monsters the EC gets. Ours usually dial in about 36 hrs out and trend to a hit inside that window. Thus, we don't get days and days of picking model run after model run to pieces. I've been fortunate to take direct hits from two 18-20 inch storms in recent years. Nothing better than seeing the updated storm watch wording (or in my case, GRR's WWA) with increased storm totals and graphics like these. This NAM clown map nailed it for mby as Marshall indeed ended up on the 18" line with more just west: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 @ Tom Remember the Sept 90-day 500 mb correlation rule that (iirc) JB was touting back in 2013? This was from back then. Something to keep an eye on as we move deeper into the month. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Niko buddy, how can I forget? Here's my fave. Snowday's final call from Nov 19th Winter 2013-14 Snow Day (final).jpg As you said, the key is that it verified and beyond anyone's wildest imagination. Since Detroit hadn't seen anything like it since 1880-81Pure beauty! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 You sure you're not related to Yogi Berra? Reading that made me certain there's a connection there somewhere. Might just be NYC but idk?? But on a more serious note. You've done a great job of describing that season for mby on over to yby. We were "ground zero" for everything that season had to offer. What's more amazing is that snow total wise, it just barely beat 08-09 by a nose as they say in the horse racing biz. Mainly tho, 2013-14 had the ferocious and durable cold that was lacking in 07-08 and 08-09. Thus the snow depth and duration of snow cover were off the charts. :lol: 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 4, 2018 Report Share Posted September 4, 2018 Too many good posts above to mention. One day I'm going to travel and experience a real winter somewhere up there one of these years. I think it would be incredible. @jaster, thank you for sharing that info. I had forgotten about that stuff. I think something like a 75-76, 78-79 hybrid is surely possible. A situation where you block cold and drive storms across both N and S branches. I'd think it takes a locked mass of snow already in place. 1978 actually achieved that, to a point, I think. As far as Chicago's history, I'm not exactly sure enough to recite as fact. My quick opinion though is that Chicago got "pinwheeled" to death on the edge of the vortex by clipper after clipper all season long. I think we're going to get some sufficient refreshers on what good cold patterns are and can do this season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 4, 2018 Report Share Posted September 4, 2018 Hint, I think October is going to be cold. Real cold for October. Like, people may actually need pumpkin spice latte again type of cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 4, 2018 Report Share Posted September 4, 2018 Hint, I think October is going to be cold. Real cold for October. Like, people may actually need pumpkin spice latte again type of cold. Up here, PSL is one of the things we look forward to every October. But it's especially nice on a cold day for sure! I'm ready, along with warm apple cider and donuts at the orchards. Used to take the kids on hay wagon rides and all that stuff. Got a lull now waiting for grand kids to come along. (no rush btw). We had snow flying in Marshall on Halloween of '14 so not every autumn's been warm tho we've seen plenty of that too. Like last year. After the early Sept chill, we couldn't buy a killing frost during Sept or all of Oct! First legit frost was about a month late iirc Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 4, 2018 Report Share Posted September 4, 2018 Up here, PSL is one of the things we look forward to every October. But it's especially nice on a cold day for sure! I'm ready, along with warm apple cider and donuts at the orchards. Used to take the kids on hay wagon rides and all that stuff. Got a lull now waiting for grand kids to come along. (no rush btw). We had snow flying in Marshall on Halloween of '14 so not every autumn's been warm tho we've seen plenty of that too. Like last year. After the early Sept chill, we couldn't buy a killing frost during Sept or all of Oct! First legit frost was about a month late iircI had a dusting of hvy flurries on my pumpkin that night w temps in the 20s (Halloween kids were freezing that evening). That was the beginning of what was known as the Siberian Winter of 13-14'. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 4, 2018 Report Share Posted September 4, 2018 Up here, PSL is one of the things we look forward to every October. But it's especially nice on a cold day for sure! I'm ready, along with warm apple cider and donuts at the orchards. Used to take the kids on hay wagon rides and all that stuff. Got a lull now waiting for grand kids to come along. (no rush btw). We had snow flying in Marshall on Halloween of '14 so not every autumn's been warm tho we've seen plenty of that too. Like last year. After the early Sept chill, we couldn't buy a killing frost during Sept or all of Oct! First legit frost was about a month late iircI actually like them too. And cider! In what few longer, cold winters we had in the 90s, I can remember all being gathered up with family when it snowed and playing cards and drinking cider and hot chocolate but man those were years ago. Good times though. I just always had great memories in the winter I guess. Maybe that's why I love it so much. Yeah, last year was technically over a month late here. Lowest October temp was like 36 I think. Seemed like the longest autumn ever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 I actually like them too. And cider! In what few longer, cold winters we had in the 90s, I can remember all being gathered up with family when it snowed and playing cards and drinking cider and hot chocolate but man those were years ago. Good times though. I just always had great memories in the winter I guess. Maybe that's why I love it so much. Yeah, last year was technically over a month late here. Lowest October temp was like 36 I think. Seemed like the longest autumn ever. Haha. Yep, same here to the bolded only you have to bump that back another 2 decades, lol. Last winter I took my sons to a local ski slope but for their tubing hill. That place has not modernized their Alpine styled buildings since they opened 50 yrs ago. It was an overcast and cold day with a few flurries flying and decent (and solid) snow pack OTG. I swear it was like a time-warp back to my youth circa 1970's in #puremichigan. Only difference were the modern snow machines ripping past on a nearby trail. New sleds are so advanced from what I grew up with. But, we had our fun back then too. Kids are beginning their Naval career so idk when we'll get out like that again, but it was a magical afternoon for this guy Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 Another bullish run from the Euro seasonal....time to buckle up???? Would like this to continue into Oct and then I'll be all in (you can say I have been since last Spring!)... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 Another bullish run from the Euro seasonal....time to buckle up???? Would like this to continue into Oct and then I'll be all in (you can say I have been since last Spring!)... Can you say "perfect storm track" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 Can you say "perfect storm track" Well, we've seen this in some form or another in the past, only to have it messed with by other variables. To my eyes, it looks nothing like the vaunted 2013-14 map where the lower pressures were centered north into Canada. Are you saying this would be reflective of a more S. Stream dominant pattern whereas that was more N. Stream dominant? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 Another bullish run from the Euro seasonal....time to buckle up???? Would like this to continue into Oct and then I'll be all in (you can say I have been since last Spring!)... If I'm reading this correctly, that might play out like this from early Feb of 2014 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 Get that ugly year away from me Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 Get that ugly year away from me LOL. So all that Hvy Snow Possible didn't quite work out for yby? Maybe it will this go-round Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 If I'm reading this correctly, that might play out like this from early Feb of 2014 20140204am NCEP Map.gif 20140207 NOHRS Lwr48 Map.gifLooks like a big season for Banana HP's coming out of Canada from this 500mb look, as well as, like you mentioned in the post above, a dominant southern stream storm track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 LOL. So all that Hvy Snow Possible didn't quite work out for yby? Maybe it will this go-roundNo, all that worked out for N KS/MO. It shifted South from here. If we can all have a good year that'd be great but we ultimately know someone is gonna get screwed. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 Get that ugly year away from me 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 If I'm reading this correctly, that might play out like this from early Feb of 2014 20140204am NCEP Map.gif 20140207 NOHRS Lwr48 Map.gifHey Jaster, check out that white arrow pointing "Heavy Snow Possible" right through SEMI. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 That map will most likely verify. I say that with near 95% confidence. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 That map will most likely verify. I say that with near 95% confidence.It'll come very close to it, but I think it's missing the PV centered near Hudson Bay. Although, you can see a hint of it near the Archipelago region across N Canada. It may start to hone in on that as we get closer to the cold season. I whole hardheartedly believe, this will be the year of the North American vortex from what I'm seeing at this point in the game. Couple that with a southern stream??? My goodness, your mind can dream... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 It'll come very close to it, but I think it's missing the PV centered near Hudson Bay. Although, you can see a hint of it near the Archipelago region across N Canada. It may start to hone in on that as we get closer to the cold season. I whole hardheartedly believe, this will be the year of the North American vortex from what I'm seeing at this point in the game. Couple that with a southern stream??? My goodness, your mind can dream...This hurricane remnant is giving me about all the rest of the info I need to know. I'm anxious to see where it runs into suppression and what amounts of precip fall there. If it goes straight up through AR before turning ENE, I better be ready for winter is all I can say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 I know this is a winter thread but do you have final US temp anomalies for JJA yet for the whole US? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 I know this is a winter thread but do you have final US temp anomalies for JJA yet for the whole US?Here you are... Last 60 days... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 6, 2018 Report Share Posted September 6, 2018 Thank you sir. Man, had a lot of cool anomalies cancelled by the early warmth. I thought at one time I was the coolest spot in the US relative to average. The last 60 has been perfect. Here's hoping the winter brings the cold in exactly that pattern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 6, 2018 Report Share Posted September 6, 2018 Need that tropical low to go to Texarkana and start turning to my right again. It will be a perfect test to see if I get a massive snowstorm in the same place this winter. Anyone ready to test if 1911-12 is possible in this century? Put an arctic block on top and suppress the precip shield into the Ozarks in January for about 3 days and we'll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 6, 2018 Report Share Posted September 6, 2018 Surely sunspots can't regulate climate. Right? Getting too many similarities and accidents to ignore. 1911 Atlantic Hurricane Season Hey, what do you know? That storm looks like Gordon doesn't it? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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