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Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons


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If I'm reading this correctly, that might play out like this from early Feb of 2014

 

20140204am NCEP Map.gif

 

20140207 NOHRS Lwr48 Map.gif

Favorite weather day of 2014. Training thundersleet, thundersnow and 45 mph wind gusts in the middle of the day was awesome! Made sleet/snow concrete that froze to the ground for what seemed like forever. Last really enjoyable winter event for me.

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Need that tropical low to go to Texarkana and start turning to my right again. It will be a perfect test to see if I get a massive snowstorm in the same place this winter. Anyone ready to test if 1911-12 is possible in this century? Put an arctic block on top and suppress the precip shield into the Ozarks in January for about 3 days and we'll see.

I was thinking about this track a few days ago and what an ideal one that would be during the Winter months.  Get ready for a solid cold season down in your neck of the woods buddy.  

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Man, cannot wait to start tracking major Winterstorms again this season. Hopefully, a couple of footers! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Man, cannot wait to start tracking major Winterstorms again this season. Hopefully, a couple of footers! ;)

 

Nothing better than getting to about 72 hrs out and watching the models start to dial-in on your region for a nice hit. Two 12" storms in the same season happens in SMI, but it's still pretty rare. Usually a sign of a good year when it does tho. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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After a delayed release of data, the CanSIPS finally loaded it's seasonal monthlies and I like what I'm consistently seeing from this model.  Firstly, the all important months of Oct/Nov when the new LRC begins to develop, we see a stout NE PAC ridge along with a hint of a ridge along the EC in October along with some blocking in the high lat's.

 

cansips_z500a_npac_2.png

 

cansips_mslpaNorm_npac_2.png

 

 

If the model is right, this should create an ideal storm track for the central CONUS...

 

cansips_apcpna_month_npac_2.png

 

 

In Nov, a continuation of the W NAMER ridge is still present and the strengthening of the "North American Vortex" is taking place.

 

cansips_z500a_namer_3.png

 

cansips_mslpaNorm_namer_3.png

 

 

What happens in December, looks to me like a great start to Winter.  If the model is right on the idea of a stout NE PAC ridge in Oct, well, then in December, we should be experiencing the LRC's cycle #2, right?  Then you have to agree with the idea of a major ridge in the same area in December...so here we go...

 

cansips_z500a_namer_4.png

 

Big time Aleutian Low...

 

cansips_mslpaNorm_namer_4.png

 

cansips_T2ma_namer_4.png

 

 

Yet another run, showing remarkable consistency (just like the Euro), we will have a solid winter this year.  Just not sure who will cash in on the snow just yet.

 

3-month 500mb mean...

 

cansips_z500aMean_month_namer_4.png

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This, my friends, is just the beginning of what I had envisioned would be a weak Polar Vortex and likely being displaced off the Pole.  When I see Dr. Cohen commenting on the unusual behavior of the Strat early on in Sept, it brings me confidence that my research throughout the year, was not of hype or wish casting, but merely thoughtful and a conclusive belief the CONUS is going to have a wild Winter.  It's still early, but my hunch says this is just the start of nature showing us the signs.

 

 

Judah Cohen

Tough way to start the season - just as the #polarvortex tries to wake up from its summer hibernation, GFS predicts a wave pulse to make it from the troposphere to the stratosphere and knock the polar vortex. Sign of things to come?

 

DmVZpnFW0AE3vkF.jpg

 

 

 

Just look at the blossoming 10mb/30mb warming...clear indication the GFS graphic above that this warming is heading into the Strat.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

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Nothing better than getting to about 72 hrs out and watching the models start to dial-in on your region for a nice hit. Two 12" storms in the same season happens in SMI, but it's still pretty rare. Usually a sign of a good year when it does tho. 

Yes...always seem to be that way. Funny how MA Nature works.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tom, we really have to know something is up when radically differing approaches lead to the same conclusion. I am growing incredibly excited now. I believe this could be the winter of a lifetime here in the Ozarks. Remnants of Gordon will literally be the start of the long descent into a lengthy and cold, snowy winter here. I can't wait, but I'm actually a tad nervous. Haven't had winter anywhere near close to what I expect in a very long time here. 2013-14 won't be close enough. There never even was a real phase or anything on the southern side. That pattern will obliterate me. :)

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Tom, we really have to know something is up when radically differing approaches lead to the same conclusion. I am growing incredibly excited now. I believe this could be the winter of a lifetime here in the Ozarks. Remnants of Gordon will literally be the start of the long descent into a lengthy and cold, snowy winter here. I can't wait, but I'm actually a tad nervous. Haven't had winter anywhere near close to what I expect in a very long time here. 2013-14 won't be close enough. There never even was a real phase or anything on the southern side. That pattern will obliterate me. :)

As crazy as this may sound, but I've had your area in my mind for a long time now and it appears that with the amount of anticipated blocking/ridging (esp in the right places), your going to be in the "spot" to have opportunities galore mid/late season, heck, it may even start in December if this pattern snaps and goes buck wild.  I'm excited for you bud!

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As crazy as this may sound, but I've had your area in my mind for a long time now and it appears that with the amount of anticipated blocking/ridging (esp in the right places), your going to be in the "spot" to have opportunities galore mid/late season, heck, it may even start in December if this pattern snaps and goes buck wild. I'm excited for you bud!

Thank you man. Me too! Maybe my profile image can come true this year. :)

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Need that tropical low to go to Texarkana and start turning to my right again. It will be a perfect test to see if I get a massive snowstorm in the same place this winter. Anyone ready to test if 1911-12 is possible in this century? Put an arctic block on top and suppress the precip shield into the Ozarks in January for about 3 days and we'll see.

 

LIKE THIS?

 

20180907 8am Surf map.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This, my friends, is just the beginning of what I had envisioned would be a weak Polar Vortex and likely being displaced off the Pole. When I see Dr. Cohen commenting on the unusual behavior of the Strat early on in Sept, it brings me confidence that my research throughout the year, was not of hype or wish casting, but merely thoughtful and a conclusive belief the CONUS is going to have a wild Winter. It's still early, but my hunch says this is just the start of nature showing us the signs.

 

 

 

 

Just look at the blossoming 10mb/30mb warming...clear indication the GFS graphic above that this warming is heading into the Strat.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

That is radical. Good find. Excited!
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I've finally had some time to digest the new data that has come in from the JMA monthlies and they sure look beautiful.  For the most part, it is illustrating what I have long believed that this season will feature the "North American Vortex", along with, the likelihood of ample high latitude blocking.  The model has trended towards a highly amplified North American pattern for the all important month of Oct when we see the "new" LRC pattern.  As we can see from the map below, the Hudson Bay vortex is displaced quite far south, into southern Canada which is intriguing to say the least.  Notice the amount of blocking all around the "vortex"...NE PAC/NW NAMER/Greenland/East Coast...boy, if this even comes close to what its showing it would be truly something highly unusual.  I mean, the mean trough in Oct would sit across the U.S./Canada border???  Pretty wild stuff right there.

 

As I sit here and try to find reasons why it may be right, well, there are several.  #1, we are definitely seeing some interesting signs of warming in the strat across N Canada...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

Notice what is happening at 30mb, look at how the blues across NW NAMER in late August, retrograde into the Bearing Sea.  This is indicative of why we primarily saw troughs targeting British Columbia/Western Canada earlier this month ushering the first snows of the season.  Now, what is absolutely fascinating to me, if we take the knowledge of when the new LRC develops (1st week of Oct across the mid latitudes, but a little earlier in the high latitudes/Arctic), the cooling across the Bearing Sea is a direct clue of what to expect 2-3 weeks from this period.  With that being said, we should look out for a deep trough to develop in this region or near the Aleutians at the tale end of Sept and the beginning of October...right when the new LRC pattern develops!  Fascinating stuff.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

#2, the latest qbo reading for the month of August (-20.41) came up a bit from the low of (-29.10) in July.  This is still a rather steep -QBO which should result in extensive high lat blocking this season.  I'll comment on the next post diving deeper into the JMA monthlies.

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Lastly, I wanted to comment on the months of Nov/Dec, which to me, would be an ideal look for late Autumn and the start of Winter.  If we are in indeed going to see a displaced vortex in Oct, this type of pattern usually in nature will cannot hold and needs to "pull back", or rather, "reload".  So, when you take a look at the Nov map below, at 500mb, the mean trough hugs NW NAMER...along with a large scale EC Ridge.  Another clue stands out from all these maps, the EC pattern certainly looks like there will be early season ridging, but does it last???

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201809.D0300_gl0.png

 

Temps in Nov look largely neutral to slightly above normal across our subforum ...Indian Summer???

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201809.D0300_gl2.png

 

 

I forgot to post the Oct temps, so here they are...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201809.D0300_gl2.png

 

 

 

Anyhow, we head into the 1st month of met Winter and this is the 3rd global model now agreeing that we kick off the 1st month of met Winter in a wild fashion.  This 500mb pattern is just beautiful to see...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201809.D0300_gl0.png

 

Temps...I think that the BN temps are being way underdone here...it is also showing a ton of precip east of the Rockies from the map above...

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201809.D0300_gl2.png

 

 

Last, but not least, the model has yet again backed off strength of the Nino...or will there even be one???  If it does happen, it will be weak IMHO.

 

Oct SST's...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201809.D0300_gls.png

 

Nov SST's...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201809.D0300_gls.png

 

Dec SST's...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201809.D0300_gls.png

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@ LNK, how did the Euro Weeklies look last night???

Bit warmer than the last run, but that's not saying much. Overall pretty cool still. October looks predominantly cool (not cold). Progressive 500mb pattern & above normal precip. Judging by 850 temps I'd be surprised if we didn't see one more severe outbreak in the region.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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this gives one pause

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd2/nino12Mon.gif

 

Perhaps, but 3+4 is used for official ENSO status, correct? Surface temps usually bounce up and down for a while anyways which is why sustained for 3 months running is the criteria. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Saw this Tweet from Dr. Cohen:

 

 

 

It is early to be talking about the #polarvortex (PV) but who knew troposphere-stratosphere coupling is active in September. Seems that a wave pulse from the troposphere to the stratosphere is causing a weakening of the PV characterized by a strongly negative stratospheric AO.

If these trends continue into October, something is brewing...

 

Meanwhile, the JAMSTEC came out with it's Sept run and it has maintained its "warmer" look overall for the CONUS.  Part of the reason could be due to the stronger Nino it is forecasting, esp considering the warmer SST's the model is predicting to be in the eastern equatorial PAC.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1sep2018.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2019.1sep2018.gif

 

 

DJF temps/precip...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2019.1sep2018.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2019.1sep2018.gif

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All, awhile, we enjoy some late summer warmth, Ol' Man Winter has returned out of hibernation in a ferocious way up north.  I did some digging, and I was rather surprised to see that the amount of snow cover on Sept 14th across Canada has surpassed any year in recent times.  In fact, I went back to the year '99 on the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab site and the only comparable years were '13/'14.  In those years, the Archipelago regions were the only parts of Canada/AK that had some snow cover.   This year, nearly all of the Archipelago and points just south near Hudson Bay have snow OTG, including parts of SW Canada near Alberta.  https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2018&ui_day=257&ui_set=2

 

In the year's mentioned above, nature provide us a clue, and that was the idea of where we can expect the Polar Vortex.  IMO, nature would typically lay down the snow first where the cold air will likely continue to build.  Taking a look where the above normal snow cover departures are building and where the snow will continue to fall, I'm encouraged to see the expected North American Vortex to grow in strength heading into Oct/Nov.  Check out the latest models snow forecasts over the next 10 days...#Winter is creeping its way south, before you know it, flakes will be flying.

 

DnFI_qUU0AAS-Ut.jpg

 

gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

gem_asnow_namer_40.png

 

Let's see how much snow is OTG by the time we enter October.  My gut tells me, something spectacular is shaping up.  The Northern Hemisphere snow cover is beginning to spike...

 

multisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

This may be our Indian Summer right now, considering we normally track snow build-up across Canada during Oct, not Sept!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Feedback from the anticipated warmup in Niño 1 and 1.2 is causing this, I would suspect. Overwarmed, or overcorrected if you ask me.

 

Only true Niño influence I can anticipate is the southern jet and there are enough factors to lock that part in with or without Niño now. Also, when you tank AO and NAO, it's nearly impossible to keep a warm ridge over the Rockies due to EC blocking displaced to the south. (2010-11, 2009-10 and Dec 2000 are great examples of what I mean.)

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Feedback from the anticipated warmup in Niño 1 and 1.2 is causing this, I would suspect. Overwarmed, or overcorrected if you ask me.

 

Only true Niño influence I can anticipate is the southern jet and there are enough factors to lock that part in with or without Niño now. Also, when you tank AO and NAO, it's nearly impossible to keep a warm ridge over the Rockies due to EC blocking displaced to the south. (2010-11, 2009-10 and Dec 2000 are great examples of what I mean.)

True. I remember those years were brutal and very snowy in the NYC Metro area. Back then, I used to live there and those years that you mentioned were a Winter wonderland. It would snow every 2 to 3 days.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This is from ORH_wxman on AmWx:

 

"Jaxa had a gain of 38k yesterday....so it's possible we have hit the extent minimum. If we have, then the jaxa min was 4.54 million sq km. This would rank 8th lowest above 2017, 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011, 2008, and 2007. "

 

Sea ice minimum is likely passed. No records. Not even close. Good summer up there.

 

Note also, the years not mentioned, 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2014. My thought is that we aren't far off of these years currently. That's a good group to be in.

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Oh my, take a look at this 500mb pattern off the JMA monthlies....I mean, it has a Winter Lover's dream written all over it...active southern branch, major ridging across W/NW NAMER and near Greenland, cross polar flow....I stand firm with my belief, this will be one of the wildest winter's in my lifetime, which I have tracked/monitored in depth.  That doesn't say much, bc I'm sure some of the older folks may compare this winter with some of the more intense winters of the late 50's/70's.

 

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1041644353972658177

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Feedback from the anticipated warmup in Niño 1 and 1.2 is causing this, I would suspect. Overwarmed, or overcorrected if you ask me.

 

Only true Niño influence I can anticipate is the southern jet and there are enough factors to lock that part in with or without Niño now. Also, when you tank AO and NAO, it's nearly impossible to keep a warm ridge over the Rockies due to EC blocking displaced to the south. (2010-11, 2009-10 and Dec 2000 are great examples of what I mean.)

 

Dec '00 

 

55" in Battle Creek & 85" in Grand Rapids (if my memory serves me). A 1-month winter, but what A ride that month was! 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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