Jump to content

Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons


Recommended Posts

 

Winter 2018-19 ramblings part 2 - The analog years and temps

 

The analog list I've decided to run with is prolly very much an overlap with everyone else's and is drawn from WxBell's as a starting point. I could've cut it back to include ONLY weak Modoki Ninos but I've left the other (3) in there in the event we never quite reach the threshold and to lend a more balanced approach.

 

My (8) analog seasons for 2018-19:

 

1977-78, 1985-86, 1993-94, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2014-15

 

Bastardi's early maps were not based on only the Pioneer in-house model, but they share a core grouping. 

 

The Pioneer model looks "pioneer days" COLD in the Plains and eastward and even he admits it tends to be overly aggressive at times, but WOW if it was correct this time. 

 

attachicon.gifPioneer model analog yrs for winter 2018-19.PNG

 

There's of course another factor which strongly supports cold, and that would be our Solar Cycle status and rapid drop-off into levels perhaps not seen since the Dalton Minimum back in the first part of the 1800's

 

attachicon.gifAug2018 Solar Min comparison graph.jpg

 

While I'm on the cold train, let's see if we can ride the Neg QBO for all it's worth. Currently we've been very negative phase (-20+) and that's the phase which benefits us with cold during the winter months:

 

attachicon.gifQBO winter effects.PNG

 

Even with a range not as negative the results are dramatic. 

 

attachicon.gifNOAA temps winters with strong neg QBO.PNG

 

How negative will we be come mid-winter? I'm not an expert at tracking how rapidly the QBO propogates downward, but per this graph the positive (warm) phase has begun (red circled area) and presuming it continues as it normally would, the net results would favor cold on the first half of winter with a warmer finish. 

 

attachicon.gif20180920 QBO graph marked.JPG

 

You can see the crazy "double pump" Ma Nature did with the +QBO in 16-17. Makes one wonder if she could do the same this winter to balance that out?? IF so, look out! But, that's truly in the wild card column. If anything belongs there, that surely does, lol

 

It's worth noting that JB name drops 2013-14 as an example of the extreme scenario if things line-up wall to wall but he acknowledges that his core analog seasons all featured a warm month and/or bouncing temps, so the start to finish, run the table kind of temperature regime is certainly not a lock. Double-pumped neg QBO's aside, we're still looking robustly cold and here's a set of analog-based temp maps for the CONUS that I'm favoring. Notice the greatest departures are on the front end and warm up a bit as winter progresses:

 

Dec '18

 

attachicon.gif20180817 Dec temps via analog yrs.PNG

 

Jan '19

 

attachicon.gif20180817 Jan temps via analog yrs.PNG

 

Feb '19

 

attachicon.gif20180817 Feb temps via analog yrs.PNG

 

Mar '19

 

attachicon.gif20180817 March temps via analog yrs.PNG

 

 

Winter 2018-19 Dec thru March

 

attachicon.gif20180817 Winter temps via analog yrs.PNG

 

 

Obviously, these are analog based and require the co-operation of certain tele-connection, or at least no counter-productive craziness from them. Time will tell, but my $$'s riding on cold as a pretty bet.

 

 

In part 3 I'll share my thoughts on snowfall. 

 

Great stuff Jaster....keep us all informed. Looking forward to reading part3 on snowfall. Wowza!!!!! :D

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's still early but I do think we can absolutely rule out a strong Nino and probably even a moderate Nino (via the ONI).

 

One concern I've had is falling into the tendency of a drier than average winter in the Lakes/Ohio Valley region, which is something that shows up in a number of weaker Nino events. That being said, that is not necessarily a good predictor of total snowfall since you can have above average snow in a drier than average winter, but I'd rather not roll the dice with a precip deficit.

 

You've nailed it Hoosier. That's the exact expectation based on the over all Nino expectations. Worth noting tho is due to the Modoki type Nino, all is not lost as the moisture pattern in my post above reveals slightly above normal rainfall, and as you say, if the cold is in place as expected, more of the typical winter moisture will come as snow.

 

Many of the listed seasons even featured Big Dog action for OH and/or Indiana such as 77-78, 04-05, and 09-10. I think 02-03 was good down there as well with or without a BD storm.

 

My list includes 06-07 and we know what that Valentine's Day brought! These analogs actually gave more hits SE of mby than here so I'm hoping we all get a moist pattern and we do even better wrt S stream system snows than in those years. Been 2 winters without a good track for Marshall, so I'm hoping this is the year things turn around in that regard. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winter 2018-19 ramblings part 3 - Snowy or what?? 

 

I'm just going to through my map out 1st here, then break down my thoughts a bit afterwards. 

 

Annual total snowfall legend and a map that I think encompasses most regular posters. (my apologies if yby was not included here): 

 

MW&GLs sub map annual snowfall legend.PNG MW&GLs sub map with 2018-19 snowfall zones.jpg

 

By comparison to normals:

 

Zone 1 = WIn BIG in slam dunk fashion. Greatest chance for an historic season. 'grats to ya!

 

Zone 2 = Winners. Avg to above avg snow totals are a good bet. 

 

Zone 3 = Win, lose (or draw?). I recommend you look at results for yby in these seasons to better gauge your chances. 

 

Here's another map I liked tho I couldn't show Miami Beach as "Coldest/Snowiest" (gotta draw the line on that one, lol)

 

Vs avgs.PNG

 

 

Here's a table of results for SMI

 

Table of El Nino types and regional snowfall.JPG

 

What jumps out at me is that the two corners of The MItt seem to have the best shot at a really snowy season. SWMI due to plenty of NW flow LES, and the Detroit region courtesy of getting clipped by any system that targets the OHV. 

 

Another point worth mentioning is that at least 5 of my 8 (63%) analog seasons featured Big Dogs within some region of OUR SUB, not the EC. I'll take those odds any day. It'd be great if we didn't have to fight over which end of the sub got walloped. Would be great if a general SW to NE track set-up that allowed most to score big. That's a high hill for Ma Nature to climb tho, as we all know. IF that track is lacking, then those outside the LES belts may rely more on the snow-on-snow over a longer cold season to reach their totals and have the good ole fashioned winter feeling. 

 

 

But, it's a new and unique season unfolding and anything is on the table at this point and maybe as Tom posted, when it's in the books, the true experts will be writing papers on it?? 

 

I work in the twin cities of Benton Harbor & St. Joseph. The records are kept for BH tho, where the greatest single day total is 25" (that'd be nice to experience)

 

Not even sure what the 2-day total is, but if the right stuff comes together, I may end up like this guy by the time I get dug out.. ;)

 

Snow-mobile.jpg

 

PS - I'm officially on-board the hype train. Just in case there was any doubt left.  :lol:

 

 

 

 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@ Tom

 

Any gut feeling call for ORD and/or yby? I counted 5 Big Dogs that I think targeted just about all areas of the sub except perhaps the very far NW and SE corners? 

 

77-78 OHV & GL's

04-05 OHV & E GL's 

06-07 N OHV

09-10 Plains & W GL's

14-15 Plains to Lwr Lakes & S OHV

 

Did I miss any BD's for our sub during any of the years in my list do you know? There was a stalled system in Feb '86 that gave a westerly flow LES event benefiting SWMI. BC had 24" but I don't consider that a BD in the traditional sense. It does confirm the potential of these analog seasons tho. 

 

In prior years, I just posted outlooks from other sources in here. This year I thought I'd do something a little more original. The winter outlook is my 2nd favorite thing about winter. Tracking the Monster Storm would be #1  :)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@ Tom

 

Any gut feeling call for ORD and/or yby? I counted 5 Big Dogs that I think targeted just about all areas of the sub except perhaps the very far NW and SE corners? 

 

77-78 OHV & GL's

04-05 OHV & E GL's 

06-07 N OHV

09-10 Plains & W GL's

14-15 Plains to Lwr Lakes & S OHV

 

Did I miss any BD's for our sub during any of the years in my list do you know? There was a stalled system in Feb '86 that gave a westerly flow LES event benefiting SWMI. BC had 24" but I don't consider that a BD in the traditional sense. It does confirm the potential of these analog seasons tho. 

 

In prior years, I just posted outlooks from other sources in here. This year I thought I'd do something a little more original. The winter outlook is my 2nd favorite thing about winter. Tracking the Monster Storm would be #1  :)

 

First of all, hats off to your in depth analysis my friend!  I really enjoyed reading it and you provided some very good points for and against a good season.  As for ORD, I'm a bit concerned the storm track may get suppressed mid/late season around here.  One of the factors I'll be paying attn to is, if, the SE ridge comes into play this season at the right time when storms roll through.  I'm starting to see some clues that it could be a contributing factor this season.  I do not believe this will end up being a traditional El Nino season.  With that being said, given the amount of cold that I believe will be available this season, I feel ORD should end up Above Normal in terms of snowfall.  I don't want to put a number on it just yet.  I'd like to pin that down once we are closer towards Thanksgiving.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First of all, hats off to your in depth analysis my friend!  I really enjoyed reading it and you provided some very good points for and against a good season.  As for ORD, I'm a bit concerned the storm track may get suppressed mid/late season around here.  One of the factors I'll be paying attn to is, if, the SE ridge comes into play this season at the right time when storms roll through.  I'm starting to see some clues that it could be a contributing factor this season.  I do not believe this will end up being a traditional El Nino season.  With that being said, given the amount of cold that I believe will be available this season, I feel ORD should end up Above Normal in terms of snowfall.  I don't want to put a number on it just yet.  I'd like to pin that down once we are closer towards Thanksgiving.

 

Thanks for your compliments amigo. I had fun doing those. 10th season on wx boards and I started as a lurker, lol. Was too afraid to post. You can and will learn a TON of stuff if you get in the game tho. 

 

As you stated, one of the potentials against a great season for your place and Marshall is storms staying suppressed. That would be like Jan '10 and most of 77-78 (aside from the bomb). I feel a slight SE ridge may be helpful to our cause in that case. If we don't get it, then I could see a good period early (Dec) and later (Feb and/or Mar) book-ending a frigid mid-season period of stacking lesser amounts. 76-77, another Nino was a lot like that away from LES regions. 

 

We do best storm track-wise with La Nada or weak La Nina. But, maybe it's our turn to do great with a Modoki Nino? I do feel better knowing that a good track for our back yards has been MIA for the last 2 winters, so that helps our odds if you ask me. We stood in a very similar position entering 2013-14. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Snow fall El Nino vs El Nina

I know there has been a lot of talk as to how a El Nino vs a La Nina affects the winter temperatures and snow fall totals. Well I took a quick look to see how past El Nino and La Nina’s had on the seasonal snow fall totals at Grand Rapids, MI.  What I came up with kind of surprised me. First lest look a La Nina years. Since 1950 there have been a reported 11 winter seasons with a weak La Nina in Grand Rapids in these 11 winters the average snow fall has been 76.3” with a range of 104.9” to 60.1”  there have been a reported 4 moderated La Nina winters the average for those winters is 77.8” with a range of 101.6” to 51.2” there has been a reported 7 strong La Nina winters and the average for them is just 69.5” with a range of 107.0 to 51.2”

On the El Nino side since 1950 there has been a reported 10 winters with a weak El Nino the average snow fall for the 10 years is 74.4” with a range of 104.7” to 39.7” for the winters with a moderate El Nino there have been a reported 7 winter seasons the average for moderate El Nino winters at GRR is 76.7” with a range of 132.0 to 47.6” as for the winters with a strong El Nino there has been a reported 5 winter seasons with a average of 70.9” and a range of 87.8 to 64.2” and for El Nino there is a “very strong” category and there are 3 winters in that list and the average at GRR for the 3 winters is 52.2” with a range of 61.1 to 35.9”

The average snow fall for GRR for the 68 years period from 1949/50 to 2017/18 is 75.9” with a range of 132.0 to 35.9” So the bottom line winter average is weak La Nina 76.3” moderate La Nina 77.8” Strong La Nina 69.5” Weak El Nino 74.4” moderate El Nino 76.7” strong El Nino 70.9” very strong El Nino (only 3 winters) 52.2” all winter since 1949/50 75.9”

When I have some time I will do a comparison on temperatures.  Remember the above snow fall totals are for Grand Rapids, Michigan and not other locations. and no break down from lake snow vs non lake snows.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see jaster,  you put a lot of research into you guess for the upcoming winter season snow fall. Where did you get a list of the Modoki El Nino's ?

 

I came across this table and searched the later years individually.

 

Table of El Nino types.GIF

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Snow fall El Nino vs El Nina

I know there has been a lot of talk as to how a El Nino vs a La Nina affects the winter temperatures and snow fall totals. Well I took a quick look to see how past El Nino and La Nina’s had on the seasonal snow fall totals at Grand Rapids, MI.  What I came up with kind of surprised me. First lest look a La Nina years. Since 1950 there have been a reported 11 winter seasons with a weak La Nina in Grand Rapids in these 11 winters the average snow fall has been 76.3” with a range of 104.9” to 60.1”  there have been a reported 4 moderated La Nina winters the average for those winters is 77.8” with a range of 101.6” to 51.2” there has been a reported 7 strong La Nina winters and the average for them is just 69.5” with a range of 107.0 to 51.2”

On the El Nino side since 1950 there has been a reported 10 winters with a weak El Nino the average snow fall for the 10 years is 74.4” with a range of 104.7” to 39.7” for the winters with a moderate El Nino there have been a reported 7 winter seasons the average for moderate El Nino winters at GRR is 76.7” with a range of 132.0 to 47.6” as for the winters with a strong El Nino there has been a reported 5 winter seasons with a average of 70.9” and a range of 87.8 to 64.2” and for El Nino there is a “very strong” category and there are 3 winters in that list and the average at GRR for the 3 winters is 52.2” with a range of 61.1 to 35.9”

The average snow fall for GRR for the 68 years period from 1949/50 to 2017/18 is 75.9” with a range of 132.0 to 35.9” So the bottom line winter average is weak La Nina 76.3” moderate La Nina 77.8” Strong La Nina 69.5” Weak El Nino 74.4” moderate El Nino 76.7” strong El Nino 70.9” very strong El Nino (only 3 winters) 52.2” all winter since 1949/50 75.9”

When I have some time I will do a comparison on temperatures.  Remember the above snow fall totals are for Grand Rapids, Michigan and not other locations. and no break down from lake snow vs non lake snows.

 

So, it looks like GR proper (due perhaps to LES) is not hurt too badly by most ENSO scenarios until you get to the extreme Nino's. Although it also looks like volatility increase proportionately to the distance from dead neutral. I like to think of our southern state border as E-W line that matches up with ENSO neutral. The further north in The Mitt you are, the better you can tolerate warmer ENSO conditions. At least it seems that way in my personal experiences. For instance, my old house in TC got an 18" storm during the Super Nino of 97-98.  

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jaster, I say this sheepishly because you did such a very good job with your forecast. My literal only concern or deviation from your exact same thoughts is that when you throw a 1911 or 1899 year in there (old school, low solar, think 1978 on roids) it shifts the whole thing west due to the larger HP over the ATL side. Seeing how October plays out in the early part will be the real deciding factor for me between a central CONUS winter or winter of the exact 2014-15 variety that fades east with time. Other factor influencing the retrogression idea is that blocking has only increased since June with no sign of slowing down yet.

 

Stuff to keep in our minds for later. I get a big winter in either case so I dont have a favorite in the fight. Not even a bias. I've never been virtually guaranteed a knock out winter before so I'm happy.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jaster, I say this sheepishly because you did such a very good job with your forecast. My literal only concern or deviation from your exact same thoughts is that when you throw a 1911 or 1899 year in there (old school, low solar, think 1978 on roids) it shifts the whole thing west due to the larger HP over the ATL side. Seeing how October plays out in the early part will be the real deciding factor for me between a central CONUS winter or winter of the exact 2014-15 variety that fades east with time. Other factor influencing the retrogression idea is that blocking has only increased since June with no sign of slowing down yet.

 

Stuff to keep in our minds for later. I get a big winter in either case so I dont have a favorite in the fight. Not even a bias. I've never been virtually guaranteed a knock out winter before so I'm happy.

 

You flatter me with your comments bud  :lol:  I can't pretend that my "forecast" takes all possible outcomes into account. Truthfully, it does not even break down some fundamental tele-connection players. It's heavily analog biased, and mostly wrt Modoki Nino's that are of the modern record. So yeah, certainly while the core theme is COLD, whether the snow gods smile more on the Plains, OHV, or EC remains to be seen. Since I didn't dig into 1898-99 or 1911-12 I wouldn't rule those out as possible outcomes either. Ofc, those are both known for massive cold waves and severe cold months of lore. For The Lakes region regardless if the winter unfolds like those old school seasons, or 2009-10 and 2014-15 style, I'm anticipating great months mixed with not very great months. Jan '10 was super dry here but was sandwiched between two awesome months. LIke-wise, Dec '14 was dumpster fire hot due in part to the (typhoon caused) massive Nov cold wave. Bastardi's dream of non-stop cold ala 2013-14 isn't off the table completely, but would likely be driven by something that wasn't typically happening in these other seasons. Like you say tho, you're just having a tough time choosing which style of gold medal to wear  :lol:  decisions, decisions.. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You flatter me with your comments bud  :lol:  I can't pretend that my "forecast" takes all possible outcomes into account. Truthfully, it does not even break down some fundamental tele-connection players. It's heavily analog biased, and mostly wrt Modoki Nino's that are of the modern record. So yeah, certainly while the core theme is COLD, whether the snow gods smile more on the Plains, OHV, or EC remains to be seen. Since I didn't dig into 1898-99 or 1911-12 I wouldn't rule those out as possible outcomes either. Ofc, those are both known for massive cold waves and severe cold months of lore. For The Lakes region regardless if the winter unfolds like those old school seasons, or 2009-10 and 2014-15 style, I'm anticipating great months mixed with not very great months. Jan '10 was super dry here but was sandwiched between two awesome months. LIke-wise, Dec '14 was dumpster fire hot due in part to the (typhoon caused) massive Nov cold wave. Bastardi's dream of non-stop cold ala 2013-14 isn't off the table completely, but would likely be driven by something that wasn't typically happening in these other seasons. Like you say tho, you're just having a tough time choosing which style of gold medal to wear  :lol:  decisions, decisions.. 

Indeed. I think 1977 -78 was another severe cold outbreak when arctic cold went all the way down to Nassau, Bahama where even some snowfalkes were seen falling there. No accumulations were reported though. Crazy stuff.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Paul Pastelok at Accuweather has his updated winter 2018/19 forecast out. And his team is guessing our area will see a warm and dry winter. With less snow fall then average. He is using the top analog years of 1994/95, 2006/07 and 1986/87. As for snow fall in the above years at Grand Rapids 1994/95 that winter GRR recorded just 54.9” for the 2006/07 season it was 83.3” and for the 86/87 season it was just 47.6” that 86/87 season was the least amount of snow that I have seen since moving to Grand Rapids in 1984. He also has (lesser) analog years of 79/80, (48.5”) 2015/15 (78.1”) 2002/03 (88.0”) and 68/69 (72.8”) as for his snow fall guess for this winter he only has 3 locations listed. Chicago 30.0” Detroit 40.0” and the Twin Cities 37.0”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Paul Pastelok at Accuweather has his updated winter 2018/19 forecast out. And his team is guessing our area will see a warm and dry winter. With less snow fall then average. He is using the top analog years of 1994/95, 2006/07 and 1986/87. As for snow fall in the above years at Grand Rapids 1994/95 that winter GRR recorded just 54.9” for the 2006/07 season it was 83.3” and for the 86/87 season it was just 47.6” that 86/87 season was the least amount of snow that I have seen since moving to Grand Rapids in 1984. He also has (lesser) analog years of 79/80, (48.5”) 2015/15 (78.1”) 2002/03 (88.0”) and 68/69 (72.8”) as for his snow fall guess for this winter he only has 3 locations listed. Chicago 30.0” Detroit 40.0” and the Twin Cities 37.0”

 

Pastelok is paid to be the "Anti-Bastardi" aka "anti-hype" outcome. They swung the pendulum fully in picking him. I'm sure he's a nice guy - yada-yada-yada but I'd rather watch paint dry this time of year. Not saying he's wrong either. He seems to be painting a typical (worst case) Nino as his core analog set. Maybe he provides outlooks for NOAA as well, who knows?

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pastelok is paid to be the "Anti-Bastardi" aka "anti-hype" outcome. They swung the pendulum fully in picking him. I'm sure he's a nice guy - yada-yada-yada but I'd rather watch paint dry this time of year. Not saying he's wrong either. He seems to be painting a typical (worst case) Nino as his core analog set. Maybe he provides outlooks for NOAA as well, who knows?

They guy wrote a forecast out of air. Literally. Only way that set of descriptors make any sense. Unreal. I work too hard for my money compared to some of these people I guess. :lol:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Paul Pastelok at Accuweather has his updated winter 2018/19 forecast out. And his team is guessing our area will see a warm and dry winter. With less snow fall then average. He is using the top analog years of 1994/95, 2006/07 and 1986/87. As for snow fall in the above years at Grand Rapids 1994/95 that winter GRR recorded just 54.9” for the 2006/07 season it was 83.3” and for the 86/87 season it was just 47.6” that 86/87 season was the least amount of snow that I have seen since moving to Grand Rapids in 1984. He also has (lesser) analog years of 79/80, (48.5”) 2015/15 (78.1”) 2002/03 (88.0”) and 68/69 (72.8”) as for his snow fall guess for this winter he only has 3 locations listed. Chicago 30.0” Detroit 40.0” and the Twin Cities 37.0”

Idk those analog years aren't bad for us.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Idk those analog years aren't bad for us.

Ofc, what works for you usually sucks here and vice-versa. 06-07 is in my set and doubled the other two loser seasons. Delivered 94" to Battle Creek, Prolly 70" here in Marshall. Very lopsided season tho with a nice fat Nino dead spot at the holidays for good measure

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As well as looking at the teleconnections I took a look at some of the signals from plants and animals. I read an article from the Persimmons lady about the persimmons seeds whether there will be a fork= Mild, Knife= Windy and Ice, Shovels= snow. While these are based in North Carolina there were over 100 seeds and 2 were Forks and Every other seed was a spoon. https://www.farmersalmanac.com/persimmon-seed-forecast-32518. I've also noticed that the squirrels have been highly agressive about their nuts here in NC. I've heard of people even being attacked for not much of a reason. While these are still old wives tales they still support the fact that we could have an extremely cold winter especially in the southeast and Atlantic. What are you guys seeing?  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As well as looking at the teleconnections I took a look at some of the signals from plants and animals. I read an article from the Persimmons lady about the persimmons seeds whether there will be a fork= Mild, Knife= Windy and Ice, Shovels= snow. While these are based in North Carolina there were over 100 seeds and 2 were Forks and Every other seed was a spoon. https://www.farmersalmanac.com/persimmon-seed-forecast-32518. I've also noticed that the squirrels have been highly agressive about their nuts here in NC. I've heard of people even being attacked for not much of a reason. While these are still old wives tales they still support the fact that we could have an extremely cold winter especially in the southeast and Atlantic. What are you guys seeing?

Me, mid-Atlantic and Great lakes/Michigan are going to get rolled this winter. Hard core winter incoming. I'm in the Northeast Oklahoma area.

 

Also, welcome and glad to have ya.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

While the signs are all there one thing that still concearns me which is the warm sst near western Alaska which would cause mid latitude ridging. The Euro seasonal jumps it much cooler well into October. While the Gfs shorter range does’t show much difference. If this were to stick around the Euro scenario would be blown off the map. However hopefully that will change later in October an November. https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.9.24.2018.gif
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

While the signs are all there one thing that still concearns me which is the warm sst near western Alaska which would cause mid latitude ridging. The Euro seasonal jumps it much cooler well into October. While the Gfs shorter range does’t show much difference. If this were to stick around the Euro scenario would be blown off the map. However hopefully that will change later in October an November. https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.9.24.2018.gif

In the short term, there very well could be feedbacks that produce mid latitude ridging but there will be a reconfiguration of the southern side warm pool with the passing Arctic Hurricane if its still slated to pass through. This should get a low centered near the Aleutians in the longer term. I think all the exposed water up there is a near guarantee for cold downstream in the CONUS as the polar jet is forced south out of the arctic over western Canada/interior Alaska. I have yet to see a scenario where warmth won out in this situation, nor have I found a modern example like it to compare. My best example of where this pattern goes is from 1911.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

While the signs are all there one thing that still concearns me which is the warm sst near western Alaska which would cause mid latitude ridging. The Euro seasonal jumps it much cooler well into October. While the Gfs shorter range does’t show much difference. If this were to stick around the Euro scenario would be blown off the map. However hopefully that will change later in October an November. https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.9.24.2018.gif

Welcome aboard!  Regarding your comment to the bolded above, I've been thinking about those warm waters as well.  That has a typical La Nina look to it and causes ridging in the eastern CONUS.  With that being said, it's not a surprise to me that we are seeing the models portraying an aggressive ridge in the east to open October.  Utilizing the BSR as long range guidance, there was a stout ridge near the Aleutians till about the 22nd of Sept which would correlate a strong EC ridge through October 10th or so.  Keeping all this in mind, I do not believe this will be a traditional El Nino and there seems to be some evidence that the developing pattern would suggest some ridging in the SE.  It's still very early in the game, but that blob of very warm waters tucked in near Alaska/Canada in the NE PAC pays big dividends as we head deeper into the colder months allowing for the Alaskan Ridge to really unload the Arctic. 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

The SE has really escaped much of Winters wrath over the past several years, however, I think this season may very well change that trend.  Hope you can chime in on here as the season turns the corner!  BTW, what part of NC are you from?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Welcome aboard! Regarding your comment to the bolded above, I've been thinking about those warm waters as well. That has a typical La Nina look to it and causes ridging in the eastern CONUS. With that being said, it's not a surprise to me that we are seeing the models portraying an aggressive ridge in the east to open October. Utilizing the BSR as long range guidance, there was a stout ridge near the Aleutians till about the 22nd of Sept which would correlate a strong EC ridge through October 10th or so. Keeping all this in mind, I do not believe this will be a traditional El Nino and there seems to be some evidence that the developing pattern would suggest some ridging in the SE. It's still very early in the game, but that blob of very warm waters tucked in near Alaska/Canada in the NE PAC pays big dividends as we head deeper into the colder months allowing for the Alaskan Ridge to really unload the Arctic.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

The SE has really escaped much of Winters wrath over the past several years, however, I think this season may very well change that trend. Hope you can chime in on here as the season turns the corner! BTW, what part of NC are you from?

I live in Central NC in the Piedmont triad. I’ve been trying to look for reasons that could support a warm winter or at least be open minded. The only thing I found that could support a warm winter would be the +nao for the second half of the year. Also the qbo would turn positive. Otherwise the blocking would cause a extremely cold winter in N.C..
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I live in Central NC in the Piedmont triad. I’ve been trying to look for reasons that could support a warm winter or at least be open minded. The only thing I found that could support a warm winter would be the +nao for the second half of the year. Also the qbo would turn positive. Otherwise the blocking would cause a extremely cold winter in N.C..

Agree, the reversal in the QBO may in fact put a wrench into a cold winter and if there is a lack of a Greenland Block.  Although, if the -EPO becomes a strong driving force mid/late winter, that will allow the cold to "push" south.  Nonetheless, it will be an interesting season for your neck of the woods.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good signs as we progress into Autumn as the North American snow cover is near decadal highs...suggesting the North American Vortex will have no problem building early season cold.  As the saying goes, "if you build it, they will come"...

 

 

multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

 

 

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pole...Eurasia is having a slow start...

 

multisensor_4km_ea_snow_extent_by_year_g

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agree, the reversal in the QBO may in fact put a wrench into a cold winter and if there is a lack of a Greenland Block.  Although, if the -EPO becomes a strong driving force mid/late winter, that will allow the cold to "push" south.  Nonetheless, it will be an interesting season for your neck of the woods.

 

I did include this in my thoughts as well. I think it's more about the speed with which it reverses as to how badly it could hurt the 2nd half of winter. It could also get trumped by bigger pattern drivers. In 2013-14 we had a sky-high +AO all winter but the -EPO beat that back in epic fashion. We need to get the major back-drop players lining up for us and then look at how the minor players line-up as we get into Nov. Should be exciting to watch.. :)  

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good signs as we progress into Autumn as the North American snow cover is near decadal highs...suggesting the North American Vortex will have no problem building early season cold.  As the saying goes, "if you build it, they will come"...

 

 

multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

 

 

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pole...Eurasia is having a slow start...

 

multisensor_4km_ea_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

Sweetness. There's one of the back-drop players lining up in a very favorable position right there! 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@ Tom

 

I read somewhere or heard an argument that because the source cold this winter would be N Canada instead of Siberia that the US would have a "warmer" winter, lol. Like it can't get cold on our side of the planet. Sure we do well with cross-polar flow, but even better if we're breeding the stuff on our side and it doesn't have to travel so far to reach us. At bare minimum I would think the potential depth of cold waves would be similar (if not better). Thoughts on this?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@ Tom

 

I read somewhere or heard an argument that because the source cold this winter would be N Canada instead of Siberia that the US would have a "warmer" winter, lol. Like it can't get cold on our side of the planet. Sure we do well with cross-polar flow, but even better if we're breeding the stuff on our side and it doesn't have to travel so far to reach us. At bare minimum I would think the potential depth of cold waves would be similar (if not better). Thoughts on this? 

 

If we get the blocking it wouldn't matter too much because too much because if we get a lot of Blocking for instance -EPO would be a bigger impact than the snow cover . Plus If we get a bigger snow cover Temperatures could be colder in Canada therefore bringing colder air into the USA. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
   

average_first_freeze.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=27
 
This map shows the average date of the first freeze across the Lower 48 states.
  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@ Tom

 

I read somewhere or heard an argument that because the source cold this winter would be N Canada instead of Siberia that the US would have a "warmer" winter, lol. Like it can't get cold on our side of the planet. Sure we do well with cross-polar flow, but even better if we're breeding the stuff on our side and it doesn't have to travel so far to reach us. At bare minimum I would think the potential depth of cold waves would be similar (if not better). Thoughts on this?

I think that's nonsense.  Think about it in a logical way.  Why would it be warmer if there is more snow OTG?  It just adds more opportunity for the atmosphere to cool and refrigerate.  On top of that, if Siberia is +10F warmer relative to averages, what difference does -20F compare to -10F???  It's still darn frigid!  I agree with you that the depth of the cold that hits and holds will have staying power this season.  IMO, the arctic air masses will have no problem to spew into the lower 48.  My pre-season thoughts, have always suggested, that the main feature across the Northern Hemisphere may be the North American Vortex that will grab media attention.  I see how things are evolving across Canada and my belief is staying course.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sweetness. There's one of the back-drop players lining up in a very favorable position right there! 

 

Good signs as we progress into Autumn as the North American snow cover is near decadal highs...suggesting the North American Vortex will have no problem building early season cold.  As the saying goes, "if you build it, they will come"...

 

 

multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

 

 

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pole...Eurasia is having a slow start...

 

multisensor_4km_ea_snow_extent_by_year_g

Interesting to see 2009 2010 had the lowest snow cover and we all know how cold that winter was. It's also interesting to see it being as one of my analogs.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...