August 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Stacsh]

I'm not seeing anything but near to AN temps for the GL's through the first 18 days of August. 

[Minny_Weather]

I'm not seeing anything but near to AN temps for the GL's through the first 18 days of August. 

Same here. Seems like we'll stick close to normal for the foreseeable future. Honestly I'm fine with that. I'll take it over what we had in June.

[Niko]

Rear Tornado (weak) hit parts of Queens, NY last night. Lot of damages. Crazy weather.

[BrianJK]

Got a heater this weekend. 95 and 94 in my P&C today and tomorrow and 90 on Monday which would make it an official heat wave should that happen. Really could use some rain. Like others, i also had to get the sprinkler out as my lawn was looking more like straw than grass.

[Tom]

Got a heater this weekend. 95 and 94 in my P&C today and tomorrow and 90 on Monday which would make it an official heat wave should that happen. Really could use some rain. Like others, i also had to get the sprinkler out as my lawn was looking more like straw than grass.

We may rally today and surpass the hottest day of the summer.  ORD already at 90F at 11:00am...#heat!

[westMJim]

While GRR has had 0.64” of rain this month here at my house it has only been 0.06” so things are getting dry in NW Grand Rapids. Today looks to be yet another very warm and humid but dry day. The latest reading at GRR is 84° with a DP of 71° here at my house I have a temperature of 86° with a DP of 71°

[CentralNebWeather]

Another.40 last night, heavier amounts over an inch in places. We are getting close to a couple more rains, of farmers not having to use irrigation systems anymore. Usually September 1 is the end of the season depending on how the entire summer of heat and moisture transpired. What a summer. The only time I have used my sprinkler system in the last month was Friday, as we have a lawn service that takes care of all of the applications of fertilizer, pesticides, weed control, grubs, etc and that had to be watered in.

[Tom]

UHI in full effect in Chitown...while the western burbs are in the mid.upper 80's, the urban areas are roasting 5-10 degrees higher!  Current temp/dew at ORD 95F/61F...the low dew's are making the heat bearable.

[Bryan1117]

Had a welcome round of showers pass through this morning here in Omaha... had about .35 in my rain gauge. Clouds are keeping temperatures in check today, only 79 degrees right now. Not too bad out at all!

[Stacsh]

92° feels like the hottest day of the year with no wind

[Stacsh]

So clearly sunspot activity has no bearing on our weather

[Tom]

This is about as close to “dry heat” as you can get in late summer around here. The dry wx we have had of late is def aiding to keep DP’s very low. At ORD, the DP just dropped to 59F. To be quite honest, it actually does not feel that bad out there. Reminds me of the AZ climate.

[CentralNebWeather]

This is about as close to “dry heat” as you can get in late summer around here. The dry wx we have had of late is def aiding to keep DP’s very low. At ORD, the DP just dropped to 59F. To be quite honest, it actually does not feel that bad out there. Reminds me of the AZ climate.

 

What is this dry heat you speak of.  We are back to a 73 dew.  All of this rain makes it hard to dry out around here, can't believe I am typing these words.  More chances in the next couple of days.  As I have said before there is a lot of disease in the grass and quite a bit of crab grass as the soil never really dries out.  My yard has some grubs that were just treated, but the service that sprays my yard said it is a unique year with all of the moisture

[OKwx2k4]

So clearly sunspot activity has no bearing on our weather

I'd argue that it undeniably does.

[OKwx2k4]

This map does a great job of showing why I keep thinking cool for me. Its because it is. Problem is that it's not cool anywhere else.

[Tom]

ORD tied the hottest day of the year yesterday at 97F.  Just like back on May 27th, low DP's allowed temps to soar.  As long as DP's stay low, I don't mind the heat as much.  Today should be another tolerable scorcher.

 

Looking forward to a couple days of storms tomorrow and Tuesday.

 

Temps have not dropped much over here.  Currently 78F/65F

[Iowawx]

Very nice line of storms heading towards Cedar Rapids.

[Tom]

Very nice line of storms heading towards Cedar Rapids.

I was just going to say, you and Hawkeye are looking good for a decent line of storms this morning.

Edit: Models showed this line weakening considerably while approaching E IA, but its holding together pretty darn good!

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/DVN/N0Q/DVN.N0Q.20180805.1200.gif

[Iowawx]

I only got 0.03 inches from the first line. Was not expecting much given that storms were moving at 55mph. We may get a bit more rain soon with a line of moderate rain that is about 40 miles west of Cedar Rapids right now.

[Hawkeye]

The line was all bark and no bite.  There were two large cracks of thunder, but the line bubbled right past me.  I only picked up a few hundredths.  It has been a pretty unlucky summer.  Hopefully, this line pushing so much farther through Iowa than models suggested will help bring tonight's storms farther south.  If we miss the stuff tonight into Monday morning, it is really going to get dry here.

[Iowawx]

There is another area of storms out in central Iowa. I hope that one holds together as it moves east southeast. There is a severe thunderstorm warning on it as well.

[Niko]

Dang, its gonna be a hot day today (90-95F) w HI in the 100s.

 

@Jaster:   gettin any rains IYBY?! Here is as dry as can be.

[Hawkeye]

The storm complexes in Iowa are not dropping rain here, but they are pushing much farther east and south than models predicted(the HRRR still doesn't see it).  The result is a cooler-and-cloudier-than-expected day, with the temp now back down to the upper 70s.  It might be tough to hit the expected 91.

[Hawkeye]

The clouds through the middle of Iowa vanished and the heat surged north.  We went from 76/65 to 90/74.  Unfortunately, that means the storms are going to remain north through at least tonight.

 

The severe drought area of southern Iowa is approaching 100 degrees.

[Hawkeye]

The CAMs have been terrible today.  There have been three storm clusters moving through the hw20 corridor in Iowa today, and the 3k nam and HRRR have not seen any of it.  Even the latest HRRR has nothing in the Waterloo area where there are currently strong storms.

[jaster220]

Dang, its gonna be a hot day today (90-95F) w HI in the 100s.

 

@Jaster:   gettin any rains IYBY?! Here is as dry as can be.

 

Marshall actually had a good period of several showers last week, so holding our own here with mostly green lawn again. Monday evening/night holds promise as well. Looked like yby in Macomb also did ok last week? 

[jaster220]

ORD tied the hottest day of the year yesterday at 97F.  Just like back on May 27th, low DP's allowed temps to soar.  As long as DP's stay low, I don't mind the heat as much.  Today should be another tolerable scorcher.

 

Looking forward to a couple days of storms tomorrow and Tuesday.

 

Temps have not dropped much over here.  Currently 78F/65F

 

Ended up I was at ORD yesterday afternoon in the hottest of it, and yeah it was scorching but the lower DP's sure made it a LOT (play on words) more bearable. Even went down to the Loop about 6-10 pm and it was easy to be comfortable once the sun went hiding. Popping in and out of the shop's a/c helped too ofc. 

[OKwx2k4]

Not looking really incredible or interesting here the next few days. Typical August really. High for the week looks like tomorrow for me before storms Tuesday. Need a cold rally for August's close to have a shot at hitting the negative anomalies I expected this month. I'm admittedly behind the 8 ball on that call at this point. I'm interested to see where model trends go over the next few (3-5) days. Admittedly interesting to see a continental humid ridge with the characteristics of the one forecast.

[Iowawx]

Sometimes, I feel like there is a brick wall or a dome that prevents storms from reaching Cedar Rapids. We just have trouble getting anything here. It always falls apart or stays away. Lots of boring weather here.

[Hawkeye]

Sometimes, I feel like there is a brick wall or a dome that prevents storms from reaching Cedar Rapids. We just have trouble getting anything here. It always falls apart or stays away. Lots of boring weather here.

 

We just can't seem to catch a break lately... especially this side of the city.  I was hoping storms would sink far enough south to get us something decent tonight, but now there's a heavy cell missing south, while more storms blow up well north where they've already had three rounds today.

[Iowawx]

We just can't seem to catch a break lately... especially this side of the city.  I was hoping storms would sink far enough south to get us something decent tonight, but now there's a heavy cell missing south, while more storms blow up well north where they've already had three rounds today.

 

HRRR seems to suggest that storms will reform over Iowa tonight, and maybe those storms by Waterloo could develop south. Main cold front passage tomorrow also may help.

 

But the rain situation could be worse I guess, this time last year, we started to get into a drought around here, and that hasn't happened here yet. 

[Tom]

Really hoping that line of storms crossing into NW IL holds together and keeps on with the easterly track. Looks like it is dumping some pretty heavy rainfall. My back yard could use a nice drink.

[westMJim]

One thing that has stood out to me so far this summer is the lack of thunderstorms. I do not keep track of the number because my bedroom has dark out curtains as I used to work 3^rd shift and could miss many flashes of lighting overnight. But during other times of the day there have not been very many here at my house. Now for some official number of thunderstorms in west central lower Michigan. With some question as to the number GRR has reported a total of 13 with 4 each in July and June. A reported 7 in May 1 in April and 1 in January.  At Lansing a number that closer would resemble the number here at my house the total so far in 2018 is 7 with 3 in July 0 in June 2 in May 1 in April and 1 in January. Any way one looks at it there have not been very many thunderstorms in west Michigan so far this year.  

[OKwx2k4]

In spite of 2" of rain to close out July, I'm already dry as a bone here to start the first full week of August. Underbrush is dangerously dry.

[Tom]

Finally!  The heavens have opened up and I just got a heavy shower.  If the models are right, a line of strong/severe storms should fire up later this afternoon.  I hope it doesn't miss us to the E/SE though, which is a real possibility.

 

Meantime, Cedar Rapids looks like they are finally scoring on a nice line of storms this morning.

[Iowawx]

Finally! The heavens have opened up and I just got a heavy shower. If the models are right, a line of strong/severe storms should fire up later this afternoon. I hope it doesn't miss us to the E/SE though, which is a real possibility.

 

Meantime, Cedar Rapids looks like they are finally scoring on a nice line of storms this morning.

Yes we are. the rain has been coming down since about 4:55, and it should last for at least a few hours. There has been a lot of lightning and some very loud thunder.

[Tom]

Boy, RPM cranking out 2-3" of rain across the majority of the N IL with training storms.  This would make up for the lack of precip in a hurry.  Looking forward to an active day around here.

 

[Tom]

Yes we are. the rain has been coming down since about 4:55, and it should last for at least a few hours. There has been a lot of lightning and some very loud thunder.

Glad to hear.  Looks like a lot of us near the I-80 corridor are going to get some beneficial rains before it dries out again later this week into the weekend.

[Bryan1117]

Missed out on all the action last night here in Omaha. Had a 60% chance of storms and didn’t even see a drop of rain here in Omaha. Seems like this has been happening a lot with this pattern.

[Tom]

Over the last week, the models have been having a devil of a time trying to figure out the pattern across the N PAC and N.A. for this upcoming week.  It first started off by missing the "inside" slider in the NE PAC which ended up tracking off the NW NAMER coast that allowed the models to correct somewhat cooler from the blow torch runs the Euro had been showing.  This week, is about as ideal as one can ask for across the MW/GL's region for early August.  Not to hot, not to cool, with plentiful sunshine after we get through the next couple days.

 

The latest trends in the modeling is suggesting that an upper level trough gets cut-off across the MW/OV during the Fri-Mon period.  Now, what happens the Week of the 12th has been on my calendar for some time.  Models have been back and forth but I'm going to stick with my original thoughts that the impacts of the warm waters in the NE PAC, as well as, the development of the Bearing Sea trough later this week will be crucial in predicting the longer range pattern for the second half of the month.

 

It's hard not to get excited, but I think these are tell-tale signs for what we should be preparing for as we head towards the opening month of met Autumn.  The latest 00z Euro run is starting to come onto the idea that the seasons first power house Bearing Sea storm is to form late this weekend.  Coincidentally, it is forecast to blow up during the Week of the 12th, in fact, on the 12th!

 

00z Euro...

 

 

00z GFS...

 

 

 

The aforementioned N PAC pattern, alongside the development of the blossoming NE PAC HP during this period, leads me to believe that the second half of the month will feature some strong autumn-like storm systems targeting the N Rockies early the following week which will eject out into the N Plains.  IMO, this will result in a series of transient, strong troughs to swing through our sub forum during the Week 1-2 period sparking more chances of severe weather.  Some big swings in temps across the central CONUS are in the cards as the atmosphere gears up for Autumn.

 

Just throwing this out there, but I like the idea of a big wound up system to close out Aug or open up Sept somewhere across the Plains into the Upper MW.  This should deliver a very autumn like pattern across our sub.  Have a great Monday!