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August 2018 Observations and Discussion


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The line just hit Wrigley with the game tied in the 9th or 10th inning.  I doubt they'll play again tonight.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Beautiful morning outside. Not too bad as far as humidity goes. Hopefully, storms roll on in today. Looking forward to the passage of the CF.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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KLOT with a mauve Watch box now. Down to 81/87 now. I doubt the line holds to severe levels by the time it finally arrives overnight. (as per usual for last 5 yrs).

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Have just dropped to 49 degrees at 6:25 AM. Refreshing to say the least.

Cannot wait for your airmass to arrive IMBY!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Have just dropped to 49 degrees at 6:25 AM. Refreshing to say the least.

Probably feels a bit nippy, huh?

 

51F and clear blues skies. A perfect late summer morning. High of 70F expected.

That's gotta bring a smile on your face!  Still cloudy, damp and humid here...after a deluge of rain yesterday, I'm looking forward to a couple dry days and better sleeping wx.

 

 

Mike Hamernik

24hr rain gauge reports as of 6AM:

3.20” Fox Lake

2.99” Arlington Hts.

2.48” Lakemoor

2.14” Lake Zurich

1.62” CHI-Wrigley Field

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A blend of clouds and sun and very humid. Come on CF. Speed it up.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This week just goes to show how fast a weather pattern can change. We have gone from very dry to very we//t. Here at my house (reports are not broken down by dates but by when I empty the rain gauge) 8/26 2.28″ 8/27 1.51″ 8/29 2.17″ for a total so far this week of 6.06″ here in my yard. At this time it is cloudy and 70° with a DP of 68° here at my house 

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Yikes - under a Flood Watch

 

This was a Severe FAIL down here in Marshall. LOL @ barely rained with 0.08 and 0.06 early this morning. Not so much as a lightning strike near as I can tell. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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One heck of a line of storms rolled through last night for all our friends in the great lakes! Cubs and Mets have to resume their game from last night at noon today. Game is all tied at 1 in the 10th inning. If I lived there I would skip work and go catch the ending of that game and the beginning of the next game!!!! 

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Well placed heavy rains across N MO/S IA over the last 24 hours...def put a dent into the drought...

 

This is the second big soaker for southeast Iowa into northeast Missouri in the last week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS has rain/storm chances every day for a week, beginning Friday.  At this rate, I won't have an opportunity to dump bloom booster fertilizer on my flowers.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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One heck of a line of storms rolled through last night for all our friends in the great lakes! Cubs and Mets have to resume their game from last night at noon today. Game is all tied at 1 in the 10th inning. If I lived there I would skip work and go catch the ending of that game and the beginning of the next game!!!! 

 

Thanks, but apparently you either missed my post right before yours, or thought I lived in a different state and remote-post as tho I were in #puremichigan  :lol:

 

One question. Is it September yet?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Again, no t'stms in my area. I am thinking this will be a dry front. Unreal.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Thanks, but apparently you either missed my post right before yours, or thought I lived in a different state and remote-post as tho I were in #puremichigan  :lol:

 

One question. Is it September yet?

No! :P 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@Jaster:

 

Did you get any real big storms in your area? My local weatherman last night was saying that my area might be in the enhanced level today and yet, we didn't even get a drop. :wacko:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Models did a pretty good job suggesting the lowest temps to be up in the U.P. this morning...

 

 

Mike Hamernik

Verified account @MikeHamernik
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1f342.pngA chilly, Fall-like morning in the north woods. Check out these low temps across northern WI & Michigan’s Upper Peninsula:
33° Wetmore,
MI 34° Ewin, MI
35° Seney, MI
35° Gwinn, MI
36° Pembine, WI
36° Florence, WI
37° Aurora, WI
38° Tomahawk, WI

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@Jaster:

 

Did you get any real big storms in your area? My local weatherman last night was saying that my area might be in the enhanced level today and yet, we didn't even get a drop. :wacko:

 

Guess you hadn't read my post either Niko? The airport officially recorded a mere 0.14" of qpf. IT BARELY RAINED AT ALL FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT, LOL  (there, I've said it as plainly as I know how). Seriously tho, the Flood Watch was a joke this time around for GRR's far SE counties basically from BC to Lansing and SE from that line as less than a quarter inch fell in that region. And yby looks to have been missed almost completely. Looks like we're back to the severe cut-off pattern we've had for the past year now. And that 10 day rainfall map Tom posted cuts the line right thru the same areas yet again with Marshall riding the fine line. I'm actually ok that we missed out on more flooding. Don't need more of that tbh. Just thought we'd get something more in the way of a strong T-storm, especially when my local grid had 70-80% Severe T-storms Likely  :rolleyes:  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Guess you hadn't read my post either Niko? The airport officially recorded a mere 0.14" of qpf. IT BARELY RAINED AT ALL FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT, LOL  (there, I've said it as plainly as I know how). Seriously tho, the Flood Watch was a joke this time around for GRR's far SE counties basically from BC to Lansing and SE from that line as less than a quarter inch fell in that region. And yby looks to have been missed almost completely. Looks like we're back to the severe cut-off pattern we've had for the past year now. And that 10 day rainfall map Tom posted cuts the line right thru the same areas yet again with Marshall riding the fine line. I'm actually ok that we missed out on more flooding. Don't need more of that tbh. Just thought we'd get something more in the way of a strong T-storm, especially when my local grid had 70-80% Severe T-storms Likely  :rolleyes:  

Guess not........I know, this is unbelievable. I was at 80% chance for some strong storms. I cannot remember a Summer w/o any storms, except this one. :rolleyes: :wacko:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Gorgeous, beautiful morning, w plentiful sunshine w temps in the upper 50s. Ahhhhhh, finally, you can breathe some fresh air. :D

 

Warm, humid air returns soon as temps make a rebound in the upper 80s to maybe near 90F by the weekend.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This mornings official low of 52° at GRR is the coldest it has been since June 6th. Here at my house I bottomed out at a cool 49°. Yes this August has been a very warm one by Michigan standards. The current mean for the month is 74.0° today will be below average and Friday will be near average so we will have to see where we end up at. It looks like we should be in the top 15.
 

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Models now seem to be getting more and more impressive with rainfall totals for the next week. GFS is showing widespread totals of 3-5+ inches of rain across IA and NE over the next 7 days. It has CR getting over 4 inches by Monday. 

 

HRRR is also suggesting a strong complex of storms will move across Iowa tomorrow morning. 

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Models now seem to be getting more and more impressive with rainfall totals for the next week. GFS is showing widespread totals of 3-5+ inches of rain across IA and NE over the next 7 days. It has CR getting over 4 inches by Monday.

 

HRRR is also suggesting a strong complex of storms will move across Iowa tomorrow morning.

Kind of scary because we don’t need that much rain; I’ll take an inch and that’s good enough! How you guys doing with rain so far this summer? I’m guessing you should be doing pretty good compared to normal?! I’m running around a total of 18 inches since May!

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On this last day of met Summer, it's another wonderful morning here 55F/50F, my windows are open and I can feel the cool/crisp air coming in.  Gonna enjoy this bc trends are for the humidity and heat to build and last through the foreseeable future.  What a wet pattern we are stuck in and it doesn't look like its going anytime soon.  Practically, everyone in our sub forum from NE/KS and points east into the GL"s is in the main corridor where rounds of storms will develop.

 

This is the wildest GEFS 2 week total precip map I've ever seen...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

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Beautiful sunny skies and delightful, cool temps this morning. Currently in  the mid 50s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On this last day of met Summer, it's another wonderful morning here 55F/50F, my windows are open and I can feel the cool/crisp air coming in.  Gonna enjoy this bc trends are for the humidity and heat to build and last through the foreseeable future.  What a wet pattern we are stuck in and it doesn't look like its going anytime soon.  Practically, everyone in our sub forum from NE/KS and points east into the GL"s is in the main corridor where rounds of storms will develop.

 

This is the wildest GEFS 2 week total precip map I've ever seen...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

 

Question is whether this has any bearing on our upcoming winter pattern, or will things shift abruptly towards mid-October? Are we burning through all of our qpf allotment in the warm season, just to dry 4 mos from now? When do you think a seasonal connection may in the works? 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Question is whether this has any bearing on our upcoming winter pattern, or will things shift abruptly towards mid-October? Are we burning through all of our qpf allotment in the warm season, just to dry 4 mos from now? When do you think a seasonal connection may in the works? 

Good question(s), I cannot answer that at the moment as I believe we are still in the same pattern, however, there is already early indication that the southern stream may be latching on.  The amount of both PAC/GOM moisture coming into play over the next 2 weeks is a very encouraging sign heading into Sept.

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Question is whether this has any bearing on our upcoming winter pattern, or will things shift abruptly towards mid-October? Are we burning through all of our qpf allotment in the warm season, just to dry 4 mos from now? When do you think a seasonal connection may in the works?

Using a different technique than Tom, I believe parts of the pattern started in July this year but I'm not in disagreement with him. Just differing approaches.

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