Tom Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Multi-day severe wx threat really turns up today and tomorrow. Those up north, esp near MSP, might be in a good spot to see some big boomers later today around dinner time. Several high rez models showing nasty line of storms, bow echo feature??? I like the Tuesday threat, seems to me this could be one of the seasons highest threats for severe wx for the MW/GL's region. This strong CF is directly correlated with the LRC and BSR rule. While I think the Tornado threat is minimal, straight line winds and hail may be the primary threat along with torrential rains. This looks fun. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 No kidding. You usually don't start seeing winter products in the higher elevations here until mid-late September. Yes. Even a lot of years as late as early October. I think that's a very positive sign. I just read that it is also snowing early in Europe (Germany, Italy, Austria)...pretty interesting... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Well the thunderstorm drought broke overnight. Here at my house I recorded 2.38” of rain over night. With several rounds of thunderstorms. Here this morning it is cloudy (dark to the north and less so to the south) and a temperature of 70°. Grand Rapids official high yesterday came in at 88° The mean for August is now at 74.0° that is a departure of +2.8° At this time that is good for the 10th warmest August of recorded history at Grand Rapids. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Loud thunder and lightning kept me awake a lot of the night. Picked up bout 0.40" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Mid 90's today, 72 tomorrow. Whoa. Southwest winds up to 20 MPH today will help a little and it seems dews won't be as high. Looking down the road, there is a warm day Friday but by Saturday it is September and usually warm to hot days then come with much lower humidity. Let's hope the maps that Tom has posted come true for cool changes down the road. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 88/94 Sunday in Marshall. Shooting for 90F today. Would like to hope it'd be our last if indeed it happens. And FINALLY, some across W central MI got some soaker storms over night. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Multi-day severe wx threat really turns up today and tomorrow. Those up north, esp near MSP, might be in a good spot to see some big boomers later today around dinner time. Several high rez models showing nasty line of storms, bow echo feature??? I like the Tuesday threat, seems to me this could be one of the seasons highest threats for severe wx for the MW/GL's region. This strong CF is directly correlated with the LRC and BSR rule. While I think the Tornado threat is minimal, straight line winds and hail may be the primary threat along with torrential rains. This looks fun. Yeah, that CF looks like the real deal. Would be unique in this spring/summer of severe quiet across SWMI Don't remember seeing this map with a front looking so strong: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 I got a bit of tame thunder this morning, along with 0.24" of rain. It sure has been raining a lot this month, and that looks to continue for the foreseeable future. The Euro ensemble average has another four inches falling over much of the region over the next two weeks. It's going to be a hot one today once the morning clouds clear in a couple hours. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Looks like they just upgraded us to an Enhanced Risk for today, and another upgrade is even possible. SPC even mentions derecho. Haven’t seen that term all freaking summer! The majority of the hi-res models are still showing a massive line blasting through later this afternoon. And of course I’ll be outside at the MN state fair. Could get interesting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Picked up 0.35 inches of rain this morning. With more rain in the forecast, it sure looks like my August rain total will exceed 8 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Had some tree damage with a 69mph wind gust recorded at the Grand Haven Pier (Breakwater). First real storm event of the season. Lots of lightning. Heavy rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Yeah, that CF looks like the real deal. Would be unique in this spring/summer of severe quiet across SWMI Don't remember seeing this map with a front looking so strong: 20180827 8pm GLs map for Tue the 28th.gifJaster...that is one, scary looking line. Time for some fun, finally. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Heat Advisory issued for my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Had some tree damage with a 69mph wind gust recorded at the Grand Haven Pier (Breakwater). First real storm event of the season. Lots of lightning. Heavy rain. I am still waiting for mine. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Looks like they just upgraded us to an Enhanced Risk for today, and another upgrade is even possible. SPC even mentions derecho. Haven’t seen that term all freaking summer! The majority of the hi-res models are still showing a massive line blasting through later this afternoon. And of course I’ll be outside at the MN state fair. Could get interesting. Stay safe my friend! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Had some tree damage with a 69mph wind gust recorded at the Grand Haven Pier (Breakwater). First real storm event of the season. Lots of lightning. Heavy rain. Jaster...that is one, scary looking line. Time for some fun, finally. HAHA, yeah Niko but I don't need the kind of fun Stacsh posted on.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Stay safe my friend!Thanks! I’ll have my 2 year old with me, so if this thing looks like it’s going to hit as bad as depicted, I won’t go. SPC essentially leaves the Enhanced area the same as the morning update. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 HAHA, yeah Niko but I don't need the kind of fun Stacsh posted on.. yeah my wife asked if I should move my car into the garage, I said it didn't look too bad. And a small branch fell on my hood and dented it. Oops. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Mesoscale discussion says a watch of some sort is coming soon. Edit: massive severe thunderstorm watch for N IA, MN and WI. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Mesoscale discussion says a watch of some sort is coming soon. Edit: massive severe thunderstorm watch for N IA, MN and WI.Hunker down bud, that severe warned cell to your SW has a beeline into your back yard! I bet the skies look lovely. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 This line approaching the MSP area looks nasty...nice bow look to it...prob some really gusty winds growing... http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MPX/N0Q/MPX.N0Q.20180827.2208.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Hunker down bud, that severe warned cell to your SW has a beeline into your back yard! I bet the skies look lovely.My wife is mad (at me) that we’re not going to the fair. But with this line approaching there’s no way I’m getting caught outside in it. Dark as midnight right now. Thunder has started. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Thanks for posting the COD nexrad radar image, Tom. I seem to always forget about that one. Best radar site there is. Storm is pretty tame so far. Looks like I’m going to fit right between strong segments of the line to the north and south. Go figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 HAHA, yeah Niko but I don't need the kind of fun Stacsh posted on.. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 HAHA, yeah Niko but I don't need the kind of fun Stacsh posted on.. Per Noaa:There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms late Tuesday intoTuesday night. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat inaddition to frequent to excessive cloud to ground lightning.Severe thunderstorms may linger into early Wednesday, with lowerintensity thunderstorms throughout much of the rest of the day as acold front moves across the region. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 27, 2018 Report Share Posted August 27, 2018 Very muggy w hazy sun. temps hit the low 90s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 Today, mark's the 1st day the Arctic is back below 0C since some time in June... http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.pngThat's a beautiful temp crash and well timed. That's a positive. Maybe early ice minimum? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 Another soupy morning here where the temp has not gone down below 80F yet. 80F/71F Pick day of the week is Thursday, ample sunshine, cool and crisp Canadian air mass, low 70's for a high temp...ahhhh! ORD set a record high low yesterday... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 The Mitt looks to be hit pretty good during the next 24 hrs with some areas of W Mich finally scoring some decent storms and/or much needed moisture. On a side note, the other high waves period about a week ago, per the radio news out of Kzoo said at least (6) people died and/or went missing on Lake Michigan. This event has been even longer so I hope people have wised-up that those high waves are nothing to mess with! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 The Mitt looks to be hit pretty good during the next 24 hrs with some areas of W Mich finally scoring some decent storms and/or much needed moisture. On a side note, the other high waves period about a week ago, per the radio news out of Kzoo said at least (6) people died and/or went missing on Lake Michigan. This event has been even longer so I hope people have wised-up that those high waves are nothing to mess with! This is the sad part about the power of Lake Michigan. Too many lives are taken each and every year from high waves and rip currents. People need to pay more attention to the warnings or at the very least, put on a life vest! For instance, last night 2 people went out on a kayak without life vests and 1 person is missing. Not smart. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 A cool 58F here this morning, although still muggy as all heck. Light rain moving in from the SW. Tom looks like some nice boomers about to hit you this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 Had to drive to the airport in Grand Rapids this morning during the storms. What a freaking disaster. Doesn't rain for 2 months and we get a month's worth in 2 days. People out here like its snow falling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 Up to 8+ inches of rain fell just south and east of La Crosse overnight. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 The Mitt looks to be hit pretty good during the next 24 hrs with some areas of W Mich finally scoring some decent storms and/or much needed moisture. On a side note, the other high waves period about a week ago, per the radio news out of Kzoo said at least (6) people died and/or went missing on Lake Michigan. This event has been even longer so I hope people have wised-up that those high waves are nothing to mess with! You have to respect the water. Aint something to mess with. When I go Kayak, I always wear a life vest and I am a great swimmer too. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 Heat Advisory again today. Its going to be a scorcher. Temps 90-95 w a HI of 100>. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 Another soupy morning here where the temp has not gone down below 80F yet. 80F/71F Pick day of the week is Thursday, ample sunshine, cool and crisp Canadian air mass, low 70's for a high temp...ahhhh! ORD set a record high low yesterday... Definitely looking forward to Thursday as that cooler, drier airmass arrives. It will feel great! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 A cool 58F here this morning, although still muggy as all heck. Light rain moving in from the SW. Tom looks like some nice boomers about to hit you this morning.Sure did! I looked outside from the gym and it got real dark and the thunder roared quite loud. We had some pretty heavy rain from those cells. Nice surprise this morning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 More storms and heavy rain for SE WI later today. Nearly 4 inches of rain IMBY over the last two nights. That is on top of over 3 inches of rain last week. Some places just to our north received much more. It wouldn't take much for flash flooding to occur withthe ground so saturated. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 It is now after 11 AM and the clouds are now just breaking up. This mornings thunderstorms dropped another 1.51″ of rain here at my house for a total 2 day total of 3.89″ I would say the drought here in my back yard is now broken. With the sun now out the temperature here at my house is now 72° 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 28, 2018 Report Share Posted August 28, 2018 It is now after 11 AM and the clouds are now just breaking up. This mornings thunderstorms dropped another 1.51″ of rain here at my house for a total 2 day total of 3.89″ I would say the drought here in my back yard is now broken. With the sun now out the temperature here at my house is now 72° Glad to hear the tides have turned for ya’ll in W MI! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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