August 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Multi-day severe wx threat really turns up today and tomorrow.  Those up north, esp near MSP, might be in a good spot to see some big boomers later today around dinner time.

 

 

 

 

Several high rez models showing  nasty line of storms, bow echo feature???

 

 

 

 

 

 

I like the Tuesday threat, seems to me this could be one of the seasons highest threats for severe wx for the MW/GL's region.

 

 

 

 

This strong CF is directly correlated with the LRC and BSR rule.  While I think the Tornado threat is minimal, straight line winds and hail may be the primary threat along with torrential rains.  This looks fun.

 

 

[Tom]

No kidding. You usually don't start seeing winter products in the higher elevations here until mid-late September.

 

Yes. Even a lot of years as late as early October. I think that's a very positive sign.

 

I just read that it is also snowing early in Europe (Germany, Italy, Austria)...pretty interesting...

[westMJim]

Well the thunderstorm drought broke overnight.  Here at my house I recorded 2.38” of rain over night. With several rounds of thunderstorms. Here this morning it is cloudy (dark to the north and less so to the south) and a temperature of 70°.  Grand Rapids official high yesterday came in at 88° The mean for August is now at 74.0° that is a departure of +2.8°  At this time that is good for the 10^th warmest August of recorded history at Grand Rapids.

[james1976]

Loud thunder and lightning kept me awake a lot of the night. Picked up bout 0.40"

[CentralNebWeather]

Mid 90's today, 72 tomorrow.  Whoa.  Southwest winds up to 20 MPH today will help a little and it seems dews won't be as high.  Looking down the road, there is a warm day Friday but by Saturday it is September and usually warm to hot days then come with much lower humidity.  Let's hope the maps that Tom has posted come true for cool changes down the road.

[jaster220]

88/94 Sunday in Marshall. Shooting for 90F today. Would like to hope it'd be our last if indeed it happens.    And FINALLY, some across W central MI got some soaker storms over night. 

[jaster220]

Multi-day severe wx threat really turns up today and tomorrow.  Those up north, esp near MSP, might be in a good spot to see some big boomers later today around dinner time.

 

 

 

 

Several high rez models showing  nasty line of storms, bow echo feature???

 

 

 

 

 

 

I like the Tuesday threat, seems to me this could be one of the seasons highest threats for severe wx for the MW/GL's region.

 

 

 

 

This strong CF is directly correlated with the LRC and BSR rule.  While I think the Tornado threat is minimal, straight line winds and hail may be the primary threat along with torrential rains.  This looks fun.

 

 

 

Yeah, that CF looks like the real deal. Would be unique in this spring/summer of severe quiet across SWMI

 

Don't remember seeing this map with a front looking so strong:

 

[Hawkeye]

I got a bit of tame thunder this morning, along with 0.24" of rain.  It sure has been raining a lot this month, and that looks to continue for the foreseeable future.  The Euro ensemble average has another four inches falling over much of the region over the next two weeks.

 

It's going to be a hot one today once the morning clouds clear in a couple hours.

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like they just upgraded us to an Enhanced Risk for today, and another upgrade is even possible. SPC even mentions derecho. Haven’t seen that term all freaking summer! The majority of the hi-res models are still showing a massive line blasting through later this afternoon. And of course I’ll be outside at the MN state fair. Could get interesting.

[Iowawx]

Picked up 0.35 inches of rain this morning. With more rain in the forecast, it sure looks like my August rain total will exceed 8 inches.

[Stacsh]

Had some tree damage with a 69mph wind gust recorded at the Grand Haven Pier (Breakwater).  First real storm event of the season.  Lots of lightning.  Heavy rain.  

[Niko]

Yeah, that CF looks like the real deal. Would be unique in this spring/summer of severe quiet across SWMI

 

Don't remember seeing this map with a front looking so strong:

 

20180827 8pm GLs map for Tue the 28th.gif

Jaster...that is one, scary looking line.

 

Time for some fun, finally.

[Niko]

Heat Advisory issued for my area.

[Niko]

Had some tree damage with a 69mph wind gust recorded at the Grand Haven Pier (Breakwater).  First real storm event of the season.  Lots of lightning.  Heavy rain.  

I am still waiting for mine.

[jaster220]

Looks like they just upgraded us to an Enhanced Risk for today, and another upgrade is even possible. SPC even mentions derecho. Haven’t seen that term all freaking summer! The majority of the hi-res models are still showing a massive line blasting through later this afternoon. And of course I’ll be outside at the MN state fair. Could get interesting.

 

Stay safe my friend!

[jaster220]

Had some tree damage with a 69mph wind gust recorded at the Grand Haven Pier (Breakwater).  First real storm event of the season.  Lots of lightning.  Heavy rain.  

 

Jaster...that is one, scary looking line.

 

Time for some fun, finally.

 

    HAHA, yeah Niko but I don't need the kind of fun Stacsh posted on..

[St Paul Storm]

Stay safe my friend!

Thanks! I’ll have my 2 year old with me, so if this thing looks like it’s going to hit as bad as depicted, I won’t go.

 

SPC essentially leaves the Enhanced area the same as the morning update.

[Stacsh]

    HAHA, yeah Niko but I don't need the kind of fun Stacsh posted on..

 

yeah my wife asked if I should move my car into the garage, I said it didn't look too bad.  And a small branch fell on my hood and dented it.  Oops.  

[St Paul Storm]

Mesoscale discussion says a watch of some sort is coming soon.

 

Edit: massive severe thunderstorm watch for N IA, MN and WI.

[Tom]

Mesoscale discussion says a watch of some sort is coming soon.

 

Edit: massive severe thunderstorm watch for N IA, MN and WI.

Hunker down bud, that severe warned cell to your SW has a beeline into your back yard! I bet the skies look lovely.

[Tom]

This line approaching the MSP area looks nasty...nice bow look to it...prob some really gusty winds growing...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MPX/N0Q/MPX.N0Q.20180827.2208.gif

[St Paul Storm]

Hunker down bud, that severe warned cell to your SW has a beeline into your back yard! I bet the skies look lovely.

My wife is mad (at me) that we’re not going to the fair. But with this line approaching there’s no way I’m getting caught outside in it. Dark as midnight right now. Thunder has started.

[St Paul Storm]

Thanks for posting the COD nexrad radar image, Tom. I seem to always forget about that one. Best radar site there is.

 

Storm is pretty tame so far. Looks like I’m going to fit right between strong segments of the line to the north and south. Go figure.

[Niko]

    HAHA, yeah Niko but I don't need the kind of fun Stacsh posted on..

[Niko]

    HAHA, yeah Niko but I don't need the kind of fun Stacsh posted on..

Per Noaa:There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms late Tuesday intoTuesday night. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat inaddition to frequent to excessive cloud to ground lightning.Severe thunderstorms may linger into early Wednesday, with lowerintensity thunderstorms throughout much of the rest of the day as acold front moves across the region.

[Niko]

Very muggy w hazy sun. temps hit the low 90s.

[OKwx2k4]

Today, mark's the 1st day the Arctic is back below 0C since some time in June...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png

That's a beautiful temp crash and well timed. That's a positive. Maybe early ice minimum?

[Tom]

Another soupy morning here where the temp has not gone down below 80F yet.  80F/71F  Pick day of the week is Thursday, ample sunshine, cool and crisp Canadian air mass, low 70's for a high temp...ahhhh!

 

ORD set a record high low yesterday...

 

[jaster220]

The Mitt looks to be hit pretty good during the next 24 hrs with some areas of W Mich finally scoring some decent storms and/or much needed moisture. 

 

On a side note, the other high waves period about a week ago, per the radio news out of Kzoo said at least (6) people died and/or went missing on Lake Michigan. This event has been even longer so I hope people have wised-up that those high waves are nothing to mess with! 

[Tom]

The Mitt looks to be hit pretty good during the next 24 hrs with some areas of W Mich finally scoring some decent storms and/or much needed moisture. 

 

On a side note, the other high waves period about a week ago, per the radio news out of Kzoo said at least (6) people died and/or went missing on Lake Michigan. This event has been even longer so I hope people have wised-up that those high waves are nothing to mess with! 

This is the sad part about the power of Lake Michigan.  Too many lives are taken each and every year from high waves and rip currents.  People need to pay more attention to the warnings or at the very least, put on a life vest!  For instance, last night 2 people went out on a kayak without life vests and 1 person is missing.  Not smart.

[St Paul Storm]

A cool 58F here this morning, although still muggy as all heck. Light rain moving in from the SW.

 

Tom looks like some nice boomers about to hit you this morning.

[Stacsh]

Had to drive to the airport in Grand Rapids this morning during the storms.  What a freaking disaster.  Doesn't rain for 2 months and we get a month's worth in 2 days.  People out here like its snow falling.  

[Hawkeye]

Up to 8+ inches of rain fell just south and east of La Crosse overnight.

[Niko]

The Mitt looks to be hit pretty good during the next 24 hrs with some areas of W Mich finally scoring some decent storms and/or much needed moisture. 

 

On a side note, the other high waves period about a week ago, per the radio news out of Kzoo said at least (6) people died and/or went missing on Lake Michigan. This event has been even longer so I hope people have wised-up that those high waves are nothing to mess with! 

You have to respect the water. Aint something to mess with. When I go Kayak, I always wear a life vest and I am a great swimmer too.

[Niko]

Heat Advisory again today. Its going to be a scorcher. Temps 90-95 w a HI of 100>.

[Niko]

Another soupy morning here where the temp has not gone down below 80F yet.  80F/71F  Pick day of the week is Thursday, ample sunshine, cool and crisp Canadian air mass, low 70's for a high temp...ahhhh!

 

ORD set a record high low yesterday...

 

Definitely looking forward to Thursday as that cooler, drier airmass arrives. It will feel great!

[Tom]

A cool 58F here this morning, although still muggy as all heck. Light rain moving in from the SW.

 

Tom looks like some nice boomers about to hit you this morning.

Sure did! I looked outside from the gym and it got real dark and the thunder roared quite loud. We had some pretty heavy rain from those cells. Nice surprise this morning.

[SE Wisconsin]

More storms and heavy rain for SE WI later today.  Nearly 4 inches of rain IMBY over the last two nights.  That is on top of over 

3 inches of rain last week.  Some places just to our north received much more.  It wouldn't take much for flash flooding to occur with

the ground so saturated.  

[westMJim]

It is now after 11 AM and the clouds are now just breaking up. This mornings thunderstorms dropped another 1.51″ of rain here at my house for a total 2 day total of 3.89″ I would say the drought here in my back yard is now broken. With the sun now out the temperature here at my house is now 72°
 

[Tom]

It is now after 11 AM and the clouds are now just breaking up. This mornings thunderstorms dropped another 1.51″ of rain here at my house for a total 2 day total of 3.89″ I would say the drought here in my back yard is now broken. With the sun now out the temperature here at my house is now 72°

 

Glad to hear the tides have turned for ya’ll in W MI!