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August 2018 Observations and Discussion


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This is a gorgeous shot of a huge Haboob engulfing the mountains of SW Arizona during sunset...there have been some amazing images of the Monsoon this year.  Quite the active year I must say.    

Drove from Crawford, Indiana to Lincoln, Nebraska today. Got caught up in that weird low over Iowa and saw a few perfect funnel makers just east of Des Moines.

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Models did a pretty good job suggesting the lowest temps to be up in the U.P. this morning...

 

 

Mike Hamernik

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1f342.pngA chilly, Fall-like morning in the north woods. Check out these low temps across northern WI & Michigan’s Upper Peninsula:
33° Wetmore,
MI 34° Ewin, MI
35° Seney, MI
35° Gwinn, MI
36° Pembine, WI
36° Florence, WI
37° Aurora, WI
38° Tomahawk, WI

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@Jaster:

 

Did you get any real big storms in your area? My local weatherman last night was saying that my area might be in the enhanced level today and yet, we didn't even get a drop. :wacko:

 

Guess you hadn't read my post either Niko? The airport officially recorded a mere 0.14" of qpf. IT BARELY RAINED AT ALL FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT, LOL  (there, I've said it as plainly as I know how). Seriously tho, the Flood Watch was a joke this time around for GRR's far SE counties basically from BC to Lansing and SE from that line as less than a quarter inch fell in that region. And yby looks to have been missed almost completely. Looks like we're back to the severe cut-off pattern we've had for the past year now. And that 10 day rainfall map Tom posted cuts the line right thru the same areas yet again with Marshall riding the fine line. I'm actually ok that we missed out on more flooding. Don't need more of that tbh. Just thought we'd get something more in the way of a strong T-storm, especially when my local grid had 70-80% Severe T-storms Likely  :rolleyes:  

Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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Guess you hadn't read my post either Niko? The airport officially recorded a mere 0.14" of qpf. IT BARELY RAINED AT ALL FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT, LOL  (there, I've said it as plainly as I know how). Seriously tho, the Flood Watch was a joke this time around for GRR's far SE counties basically from BC to Lansing and SE from that line as less than a quarter inch fell in that region. And yby looks to have been missed almost completely. Looks like we're back to the severe cut-off pattern we've had for the past year now. And that 10 day rainfall map Tom posted cuts the line right thru the same areas yet again with Marshall riding the fine line. I'm actually ok that we missed out on more flooding. Don't need more of that tbh. Just thought we'd get something more in the way of a strong T-storm, especially when my local grid had 70-80% Severe T-storms Likely  :rolleyes:  

Guess not........I know, this is unbelievable. I was at 80% chance for some strong storms. I cannot remember a Summer w/o any storms, except this one. :rolleyes: :wacko:

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Gorgeous, beautiful morning, w plentiful sunshine w temps in the upper 50s. Ahhhhhh, finally, you can breathe some fresh air. :D

 

Warm, humid air returns soon as temps make a rebound in the upper 80s to maybe near 90F by the weekend.

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This mornings official low of 52° at GRR is the coldest it has been since June 6th. Here at my house I bottomed out at a cool 49°. Yes this August has been a very warm one by Michigan standards. The current mean for the month is 74.0° today will be below average and Friday will be near average so we will have to see where we end up at. It looks like we should be in the top 15.
 

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Models now seem to be getting more and more impressive with rainfall totals for the next week. GFS is showing widespread totals of 3-5+ inches of rain across IA and NE over the next 7 days. It has CR getting over 4 inches by Monday. 

 

HRRR is also suggesting a strong complex of storms will move across Iowa tomorrow morning. 

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Models now seem to be getting more and more impressive with rainfall totals for the next week. GFS is showing widespread totals of 3-5+ inches of rain across IA and NE over the next 7 days. It has CR getting over 4 inches by Monday.

 

HRRR is also suggesting a strong complex of storms will move across Iowa tomorrow morning.

Kind of scary because we don’t need that much rain; I’ll take an inch and that’s good enough! How you guys doing with rain so far this summer? I’m guessing you should be doing pretty good compared to normal?! I’m running around a total of 18 inches since May!

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On this last day of met Summer, it's another wonderful morning here 55F/50F, my windows are open and I can feel the cool/crisp air coming in.  Gonna enjoy this bc trends are for the humidity and heat to build and last through the foreseeable future.  What a wet pattern we are stuck in and it doesn't look like its going anytime soon.  Practically, everyone in our sub forum from NE/KS and points east into the GL"s is in the main corridor where rounds of storms will develop.

 

This is the wildest GEFS 2 week total precip map I've ever seen...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

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Had a nice storm roll through with lots of lightning around 2:45am. Tricky forecast later today. Half of the models show storms firing west of here, then east of here with the metro missing the action. The other half show a linear line hitting the metro later this evening.

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On this last day of met Summer, it's another wonderful morning here 55F/50F, my windows are open and I can feel the cool/crisp air coming in.  Gonna enjoy this bc trends are for the humidity and heat to build and last through the foreseeable future.  What a wet pattern we are stuck in and it doesn't look like its going anytime soon.  Practically, everyone in our sub forum from NE/KS and points east into the GL"s is in the main corridor where rounds of storms will develop.

 

This is the wildest GEFS 2 week total precip map I've ever seen...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

 

Question is whether this has any bearing on our upcoming winter pattern, or will things shift abruptly towards mid-October? Are we burning through all of our qpf allotment in the warm season, just to dry 4 mos from now? When do you think a seasonal connection may in the works? 

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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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Question is whether this has any bearing on our upcoming winter pattern, or will things shift abruptly towards mid-October? Are we burning through all of our qpf allotment in the warm season, just to dry 4 mos from now? When do you think a seasonal connection may in the works? 

Good question(s), I cannot answer that at the moment as I believe we are still in the same pattern, however, there is already early indication that the southern stream may be latching on.  The amount of both PAC/GOM moisture coming into play over the next 2 weeks is a very encouraging sign heading into Sept.

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Question is whether this has any bearing on our upcoming winter pattern, or will things shift abruptly towards mid-October? Are we burning through all of our qpf allotment in the warm season, just to dry 4 mos from now? When do you think a seasonal connection may in the works?

Using a different technique than Tom, I believe parts of the pattern started in July this year but I'm not in disagreement with him. Just differing approaches.

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Just shift it SE with time.

 

@ Madtown

 

Them's some real fishies u got there bud! Nice!  Congrats to ya! 

Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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Just shift it SE with time.

 

;) Ofc, that's what we'd be hoping for, eh? However, our local SWMI site Mod always argued that you wanted the heavy moisture track to your SE going into winter. However, he may been referring more towards Oct/Nov than late summer. Thus my question about any connection at all? 

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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 48.0"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 4.3

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

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;) Ofc, that's what we'd be hoping for, eh? However, our local SWMI site Mod always argued that you wanted the heavy moisture track to your SE going into winter. However, he may been referring more towards Oct/Nov than late summer. Thus my question about any connection at all?

My theory here is that the blocking to come accomplishes the necessary suppression as we go forward.

 

Severe wx in late September-October here would be the key to seeing if it progresses the way I'd like. Possibly similar for your location.

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