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11/8 - 11/10 Plains/GL's System


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6 inches already, school late start. Amazing. Will get pictures after sun rises.

 

Since my dude is too busy making snow angels over there, here's some pictures from the McCook, Nebraska area that my friend posted! 

 

hidden.jpg

 

asfawe.jpg

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6 inches already, school late start. Amazing. Will get pictures after sun rises.

Since my dude is too busy making snow angels over there, here's some pictures from the McCook, Nebraska area that my friend posted!     

I measured 7-8".  This graphic is spot on me as the yellow bullseye is essentially over my house.  Had a late start, 10 AM at school.  The only reason we didn't have the entire day off was there was n

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Down to pixie dust with about 1-1.5" of powder on the ground here. Can't complain as it is November 8. Drove to downtown while it was still heavy, and the roads were fine. Downtown did seem to get way less. Melting is already beginning at my place, which is a bit disheartening. There is one more weenie band coming which may make up for it a bit. 30.7*F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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d**n, CentralNeb upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning!  Congrats buddy!  Storm totals of 5-9" are impressive.

 

Setting the seasonal trend? Cheers to more of this!

 

Hey Jaster buddy...I think you are under your first WWA, No?! If so, congrats...looking good for ya. I am forecasted to receive 1-2inches. Not bad. Ill take it. Afterall, its only Nov.8th. :lol:

 

Thx Niko! Yeah, I was driving into the office and Whoa! Surprised to see the WWA on the MDOT digital sign along 94. Dang if GRR isn't surprising me this early winter with a pro-active trigger pull for a change. Even down here in Jackson. Has to be one of my earliest headlines in SMI. 

 

@ Jaster, I see you have your first Heavy Snow wording in your grids for Friday night!  Congrats buddy...

 

Sneaked a peak did you? I have been super-busy this morning and haven't got there yet, lol. Thanks for the 'grats. Seems like I live in the land of (winter) enchantment since moving here. I did notice that WPC's map has the hashed snow line scary close to Marshall. Amazingly large white hatched region for our 1st storm of the new LRC

 

20181108 WPC d2 map.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Euro now showing tomorrow's clipper in SW Iowa as well.  Looks like its' tonight or bust for me.  Just about every model is showing some snow here though tonight, so a dusting up to an inch looks possible.  

Season Snowfall 23.2"

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A stronger burst of snow combined with powerful winds

and falling temperatures is forecasted for Friday night into

Saturday morning.

 

:)  The kind of intense stuff I like could be on the table tomorrow night. Prolly be during my ZZZZ hrs but should be interesting for so early in the season and I could be awoken by the roar of wind? 

 

Edit - NAM has it hitting mby from about 1 am til perhaps as late as 10 am. If accurate I should see some after daylight

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Low level dry air is gonna hurt us in E IA

That hurt us here too. Without it we could have gotten 3". Oh well. It's November.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Much of the snow is already gone on the grass. Surprising how fast it melted, it's 31.6*F now. It melted almost as if it were sunny and 45.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Getting some last minute action but it won't last long enough to amount to anything. The 5" in October was fun, but it would be nice if that had happened now since cold weather is following this.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 

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0.5" reported at the airport. Figured they'd get less than down here. 30.9*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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I'm only expecting a dusting here, maybe a tenth or two.  I'm not going to bother waking up in the middle of the night to watch.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm only expecting a dusting here, maybe a tenth or two. I'm not going to bother waking up in the middle of the night to watch.

Didn’t get anything here in Omaha either today, the dry air won again. No big deal, this wasn’t going to be our storm either way.

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Didn’t get anything here in Omaha either today, the dry air won again. No big deal, this wasn’t going to be our storm either way.

You may get a dusting out of the clipper snow tomorrow morning so that'd make up for it. 

 

My friend in Chalco got mood flakes but not much more.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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yikes.gif

 

It's gonna be one helluva wild ride for The Mitt this winter if the past 3.5 wks are any indication. Absolutely wowza'd by the way things have trended stronger at game-time with several events, and now this from GRR

 

 

UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

The forecast is largely on track with not much changed in
expectations over the next 24-36 hours. No changes to headlines
will be introduced for the evening update. However, there are a
few things we are monitoring closely:


1). The potential for a north/south oriented band of heavy lake
effect snow to come ashore around the noon hour with associated
impacts. Should this occur, quite a bit more snow may fall west
of US-131 Friday than currently reflected in our forecast before
the well-advertised lake- effect snow event begins Friday
evening. Note that the latest few runs of the HRRR would be a
worst-case scenario with such a band making it through nearly our
entire area of responsibility.


2). The potential for areas of blowing snow and significantly
reduced visibilities Friday night as the lake-effect snow ramps up
and westerly winds gust upwards of 40-45 mph, especially along
the lake shore.

We will obviously be taking a closer look at the aforementioned
concerns for the 3:30 AM forecast package. Updated products will
be sent out soon.


&&

 

Dang, I'm getting 70's flash-backs! :lol:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Expecting High-end gales to 45 kts (52 mph) on Lake Michigan, just below Storm Force winds. :)

 

Here's GRR's previous map posted early afternoon which may be updated overnight per their AFD :D

 

20181108 GRR Snowfall.png

 

 

This is Oct 20th all over again, except in frozen version. Somebody in Allegan and Van Buren counties prolly sees bliz conditions, if only for a short period. Might have to do a local chase Friday evening..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Expecting High-end gales to 45 kts (52 mph) on Lake Michigan, just below Storm Force winds. :)

 

Here's GRR's previous map posted early afternoon which may be updated overnight per their AFD :D

 

20181108 GRR Snowfall.png

 

 

This is Oct 20th all over again, except in frozen version. Somebody in Allegan and Van Buren counties prolly sees bliz conditions, if only for a short period. Might have to do a local chase Friday evening..

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UPDATE

 

ISSUED AT 825 PM EST THU NOV 8 2018

 

THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH NOT MUCH CHANGED IN

EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES

WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A

FEW THINGS WE ARE MONITORING CLOSELY:

 

1). THE POTENTIAL FOR A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY LAKE

EFFECT SNOW TO COME ASHORE AROUND THE NOON HOUR WITH ASSOCIATED

IMPACTS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, QUITE A BIT MORE SNOW MAY FALL WEST

OF US-131 FRIDAY THAN CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN OUR FORECAST BEFORE

THE WELL-ADVERTISED LAKE- EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINS FRIDAY

EVENING. NOTE THAT THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR WOULD BE A

WORST-CASE SCENARIO WITH SUCH A BAND MAKING IT THROUGH NEARLY OUR

ENTIRE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

 

2). THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW RAMPS UP

AND WESTERLY WINDS GUST UPWARDS OF 40-45 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG

THE LAKE SHORE.

 

WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AFOREMENTIONED

CONCERNS FOR THE 3:30 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL

BE SENT OUT SOON.

 

 

Potential is there for our first snow to be quite the surprise.

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UPDATE

 

ISSUED AT 825 PM EST THU NOV 8 2018

 

THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH NOT MUCH CHANGED IN

EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES

WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A

FEW THINGS WE ARE MONITORING CLOSELY:

 

1). THE POTENTIAL FOR A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY LAKE

EFFECT SNOW TO COME ASHORE AROUND THE NOON HOUR WITH ASSOCIATED

IMPACTS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, QUITE A BIT MORE SNOW MAY FALL WEST

OF US-131 FRIDAY THAN CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN OUR FORECAST BEFORE

THE WELL-ADVERTISED LAKE- EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINS FRIDAY

EVENING. NOTE THAT THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR WOULD BE A

WORST-CASE SCENARIO WITH SUCH A BAND MAKING IT THROUGH NEARLY OUR

ENTIRE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

 

2). THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW RAMPS UP

AND WESTERLY WINDS GUST UPWARDS OF 40-45 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG

THE LAKE SHORE.

 

WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE AFOREMENTIONED

CONCERNS FOR THE 3:30 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL

BE SENT OUT SOON.

 

 

Potential is there for our first snow to be quite the surprise.

 

Yeah, and you look to be in a great spot up there. Both the HRRR and the RGEM show that line swinging in off S Lk Michigan on the nose of the arctic punch. With the lake still mild, this could be impressive, even further inland. 2m temps plummet to the upper teens by 4 am all the way to Detroit. Should be a wild one. Good luck up there!

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Yeah, and you look to be in a great spot up there. Both the HRRR and the RGEM show that line swinging in off S Lk Michigan on the nose of the arctic punch. With the lake still mild, this could be impressive, even further inland. 2m temps plummet to the upper teens by 4 am all the way to Detroit. Should be a wild one. Good luck up there!

Didn’t see you beat me to it lol

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Didn’t see you beat me to it lol

 

:lol: yep

 

 

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)

Issued at 249 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

 

The main challenge in the forecast deals with the potential impacts

from the storm system Friday into Saturday.

 

Models are in relative agreement in tracking and deepening a

surface low from Central Appalachians northward into Ontario

Friday into Saturday. This is an unusual track for the region.

This system will provide the region with several opportunities for

precipitation, most of which will be snow. Initially with warm

and moist air advection arriving later tonight then through the

morning commute...some snow is expected. Overall the lift is shown

to remain weak, but the moisture is forecasted to be relatively

deep, through the DGZ. So it looks like light snow will occur

that moves in just before or during the morning commute. With

surface temperatures starting the day near or just below freezing,

this is expected to support a period of slick conditions for the

morning commute, especially on elevated surfaces. If surface

temperatures end up a few degrees warmer, not much in the way of

impacts would occur. Guidance has lately been showing a stronger

band of snow over Lake MI during the morning that moves onshore

around noon. It appears that temperatures during the middle part

of the day will be above freezing...but any steadier/heavier band

of snow could lower values back down to near freezing. We will

keep the headlines going. After this band tracks eastward through

the region...a lull in the snow may occur mid to late afternoon.

 

The second round of snow develops most likely Friday evening. This

is when the shortwave that digs down into the area evolves into a

rather deep mid level low. Beneath this feature deep cyclonic

flow with temperatures supportive of lake enhancement suggests

widespread snow showers some of which could be heavy. Couple that

with deeper mixing and stronger wind fields not too far off the

ground and you have impacts. We may need to extend the Friday

night advisory further inland if these strong winds do draw the

snow bands into the central part of Lower MI.

 

Can't remember the last time I saw such an interesting read on the Aviation portion!

 

 

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)

Issued at 743 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

 

There is little question a significant winter storm will move

through the Great Lakes tonight into Saturday. The first phase

will be the warm advection precipitation event. That will be from

around 09z to around 18z. For the most part this should be snow

but in the I-94 TAF sites it may be mixed with rain when the

precipitation is not moderate or greater. Once this moves out

there may be a period of drizzle or mixed flurries or drizzle.

Finally the cold air comes in by mid afternoon and that will push

a band of heavy snow showers on shore. The band will weaken as it

moves on shore but MKG and possibly GRR will see 1 to 2 hours of

heavy snow as that moves through.

 

Clearly this means IFR conditions across the TAF sites from

around 09z on into Saturday. There will be very strong winds

Friday evening, gusting over 35 knots so expect considerable

blowing snow on landing in GRR or MKG after 03z Saturday.

 

Given this will bring snow into the area expect moderate in cloud

icing tonight through Saturday morning. Also expect moderate

turbulence above 9000 ft tonight into Friday.

 

K, gotta get some sleep. Adios

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@ Tom

 

NAM says to globals "follow my lead boys". I didn't have time to post it, but a loop of the GFS and NAM are now almost identical. It's some crazy fuji-wara stuff going on right over the GL's and it's just the kind of neat and exciting pattern I've been hoping for amigo!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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You don’t typically see this in November. Should be a frigid day.

 

From NWS Hastings: ..Cold Wind Chills along with Gusty Winds and Blowing Snow Today ...

 

An Arctic cold front will cross the area today ushering in a

reinforcing shot of very cold air for early November. Temperatures

will remain in the teens and 20s ...and northwest winds will

increase to 20 to 30 MPH ...with gusts of 35 to 40 MPH at times.

This will result in unusually cold wind chills for November ...with

readings in the single digits over south central Nebraska ...and

in the teens over north central Kansas.

 

In addition ...the strong winds will result in blowing snow where

snow fell yesterday. This could result in localized slick spots on

area roads ...including Interstate 80.

 

Anyone venturing outside should dress for winter weather ...and

those driving should be alert for slick spots and use caution.

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The “weenie band” of moderate to heavy snow with the cold front passage is lining up right over the Omaha metro this morning. Already snowing out my window with some pretty sizable flakes coming down... nice surprise after yesterday’s miss.

 

Looks like we will pick up 1-2 inches of snow from this quick hitting band, followed by wind gusts of up to 50 mph and falling temperatures with the front passage. Winter has arrived!

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Wow, you guys near the shores of LM are going to get shallacked!  Very impressive to see in early November that's for sure.  Just as impressive, is the cold hitting the Plains today and the rest of us over the weekend.  It's exciting to wake up and see my first coating of snow this season.  I've had some moderate bursts but only accumulating on my deck and elevated surfaces.  I prob have about 1/2" on my deck which ain't much but still sets me in the mood.  Good luck to you guys in the Mitt!

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The “weenie band” of moderate to heavy snow with the cold front passage is lining up right over the Omaha metro this morning. Already snowing out my window with some pretty sizable flakes coming down... nice surprise after yesterday’s miss.

 

Looks like we will pick up 1-3 inches of snow from this quick hitting band, followed by wind gusts of up to 50 mph and falling temperatures with the front passage. Winter has arrived!

Ya, I'd say this system is the one that really kicks off Winter for many of us around the Plains/MW/GL's who haven't seen the snow yet.  The cold coming post system is darn impressive!

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Woke up to the tail end of that clipper weenie band that Bryan mentioned earlier. We picked up a dusting from that. Whoopie. Onto December. 28.0*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Does anyone know how much KC got from this system??  Or parts of N MO???  @ Clinton, where ya at bud?

 

This will be an interesting system in future cycles....

 

KC got a dusting to 2 inches.  I got 4 inches at my house, I am about an hour east of KC.  It was my biggest snow in 3 years!  If we could have been 2 or 3 degrees colder it would have really piled up.  I'm excited for this system in future cycles.

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KC got a dusting to 2 inches.  I got 4 inches at my house, I am about an hour east of KC.  It was my biggest snow in 3 years!  If we could have been 2 or 3 degrees colder it would have really piled up.  I'm excited for this system in future cycles.

I'm glad you scored my friend!  Its going to be a fun season and your in a prime location that'll see many opportunities.  I still can't believe this is your largest snowfall in 3 years!  Crazy to think.  Hope you make it up yuuge this season.

 

Meantime, I'm getting clipped by the back edge of this system with mod snowfall.  Nice 1st snow of the season.

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I picked up a half inch.  Looking at the radar loop, it appears much of that fell in one burst around 6am.  I was still sleeping, though.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18 degrees with a wind chill of 3 at 7:30 this morning. I drove in some blowing and drifting snow on my way to school this morning. It feels and looks like January. The high may only make it into the low to mid 20’s. Insane. Had several people measure over 9 inches yesterday here, NWS had us at 8”. Either way, what a way to start.

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Wow, you guys near the shores of LM are going to get shallacked!  Very impressive to see in early November that's for sure.  Just as impressive, is the cold hitting the Plains today and the rest of us over the weekend.  It's exciting to wake up and see my first coating of snow this season.  I've had some moderate bursts but only accumulating on my deck and elevated surfaces.  I prob have about 1/2" on my deck which ain't much but still sets me in the mood.  Good luck to you guys in the Mitt!

This is from this AM discussion from GRR

 

A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY  

OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST ACROSS  

LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,  

IMPRESSIVE LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG, INVERSION  

HEIGHTS TAPPING NORTH OF 12,000 FT, AND DEEP/STRONG LOW-LEVEL LIFT  

THAT CROSSES INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SCREAM THE POTENTIAL FOR  

INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND/OR MESOLOWS. THE MAIN DETRIMENT TO SNOW  

INTENSITY WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35-45 MPH  

INLAND, AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORE, WHICH  

WILL TEND TO FRACTURE SNOWFLAKES INTO "BLOWABLE DUST." ESPECIALLY  

CONSIDERING THE SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT  

(IN WHICH SNOWFALL AND WIND INTENSITIES WOULD BE ENHANCED), OUR  

PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE BLOWING  

SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES/HAZARDOUS DRIVING  

CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FESTIVITIES. NONETHELESS, ANOTHER 2-4"  

OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FAVORING AREAS WEST OF US-131  

AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE I-94 AND I-96 CORRIDORS.  

 

EQUALLY-IMPRESSIVE (AND NON-COINCIDENTAL) SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE  

BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WILL PUT A SQUASH TO ALL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW  

AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY MORNING, TOTAL SNOW  

ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-7" ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF US-131 AS WELL  

AS BETWEEN THE I-96/I-94 CORRIDORS WITH 2-4" ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER,  

IT'S BEST TO FOCUS ON EXPECTED IMPACTS RATHER THAN TOTAL SNOW  

ACCUMULATIONS

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Snowed overnight here in Central IL, and we woke up to a nice 2 inches covering the ground. Nothing sticking to pavement, but a pretty unique sight to see the white stuff covering a few trees with red and orange leaves underneath.

I thought the same thing during my walk around the neighborhood.  Some of the maples have vibrant yellow colors that stand out quite dramatically with the freshly fallen snow.

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Another surprise weenie band of snow is coming this way. Areas North and East of here that have already received over an inch are under a WWA now, I am under a SPS. 27.1*F and brutally windy. Literally feels like January.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Another surprise weenie band of snow is coming this way. Areas North and East of here that have already received over an inch are under a WWA now, I am under a SPS. 27.1*F and brutally windy. Literally feels like January.

 

That's the band the euro had moving through my area for several runs, but was totally wrong.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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:D  Good winter morning to ya!  Edit- NOT a forecast you see every day, let alone early November!

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
304 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071>073-091615-
/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-181110T1200Z/
Mason-Lake-Oceana-Newaygo-Muskegon-Ottawa-Kent-Allegan-Barry-
Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Hart, Fremont,
Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Holland, Hastings,
South Haven, Kalamazoo, and Battle Creek
304 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Light snow this morning will transition to
brief heavy snow this afternoon, and then to periods of heavy
snow between midnight and 7 AM Saturday. Total snow
accumulations of 4-7 inches are expected west of US-131 and
between I-96 and I-94. Wind gusts in excess of 35 mph will lead
to areas of blowing snow this afternoon and tonight. Wind gusts
may exceed 50 mph along the lake shore leading to near zero
visibility at times tonight.


* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest and west central
Michigan.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and low
visibility. The hazardous conditions may impact the Friday
morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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