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2019 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread


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Time will tell! The STJ has been pretty beefy this winter. Wouldn’t surprise me to see it make its presence known again at some point.

 

Of course I hope you're right, but I admit I'd rather expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised than expect great things and be repeatedly disappointed (like many of our cohorts on the PNW forum).  For even the most cockeyed optimist, the overall trend down here just hasn't been very encouraging in recent years.

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Not much snow on top of Saddleback Mountain, but these exceptionally cold storms usually are pretty moisture starved.   First 6th days of February are averaging lower for the high temperatures than an

Snow level appears to have gotten down to around 3000 feet in the morning. I only got a high of 49.3 F today, one of the few sub-50F high temperatures I've recorded at this station. This morning's low

You guys are basically getting the ideal storm- strong winds, heavy rain, thunder and lightning, heavy snow, etc.   I am so jealous, enjoy it!

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We're actually above average for rainfall since October 1 in most of Southern California.

 

Agreed. Every station around me (including my own) has already exceeded their entire season totals for the lackluster 2017-18 water year, and it's only January.

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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Still making these "floating bar" daily max/min temperature and precipitation graphs for my weather station data. 2018-19 so far:

 

edbz8i0.png

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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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Finally a chance of rain next weekend?

 

tROaiD6.png

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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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Still making these "floating bar" daily max/min temperature and precipitation graphs for my weather station data. 2018-19 so far:

 

edbz8i0.png

 

Those graphs look similar to the ones from ClimateStations.com. I always enjoy looking at these kinds of graphs for precipitation to get an idea of how wet the winter season was and how the rain was distributed throughout the season.

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Those graphs look similar to the ones from ClimateStations.com. I always enjoy looking at these kinds of graphs for precipitation to get an idea of how wet the winter season was and how the rain was distributed throughout the season.

 

Good eye - that's where my graphs are inspired from. I actually talked to the site's owner, Charles Fisk, a few times over the years regarding the software he uses (which is custom-made) as well as the nature of the data he has found over the years. It's very interesting indeed.

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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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Hey, can you guys please give us our precipitation back?

 

Sincerely, an Oregonian

 

But no really, I’m glad you guys are getting rain. Tahoe is getting dumped on and even SoCal is getting a downpour on Saturday. Besides, we’re getting a cold snap, although not much snow will fall.

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Looking forward to Saturday's storm. Could deliver up to 2" here, although that's probably being very optimistic.

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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Fun to see "TSTM" next to so many station names on the NWS LA hourly roundup.  That doesn't happen often -- T-storms are rare around here to begin with, and when they do happen they're typically pretty localized.

 

Looks like I'll break an inch here before the rain stops, which should be soon if the radar is any indication.

 

20190131noon.jpg

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Coming down pretty good over the last two hours. 0.35" here and rising.

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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0.60" here and still raining, the sun just started poking through over the Santa Ana Mountains that we can see from here. Had some nice thunder earlier.

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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Season to date rain totals

MO | Total | Avg | % of average 
Oct: 0.44" | 0.58" | 76%
Nov: 1.83" | 1.34" | 137%
Dec: 1.09" | 2.13" | 51%
Jan: 5.01" | 2.70" | 180%

Total so far: 8.37" | Annual avg 13.57" | 62% of the yearly avg so far. Getting closer to reaching the annual avg. Only 5.2" to go! :)

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Storm total here 1.28", bringing the total for January to 7.10" -- wettest January since 2008, and wettest month since December 2010.  Season total thus far 12.59".

 

NWS seems to be getting rather alarmed regarding the next storm, especially the potential for wind damage.  The surface low does look stronger with each model run.  Batten down those hatches!

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I received 0.53" today, for a total of 6.15" for January 2019 here in Orange. This was on the lower end of the predicted range, as 0.5" to 1" was forecast for this area with the storm, but still within range and NOT a bust!

 

There was some lightning and thunder in the area early this afternoon, but I think the thunderstorm activity was more vigorous in western Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa Barbara Counties.

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Storm total here 1.28", bringing the total for January to 7.10" -- wettest January since 2008, and wettest month since December 2010.  Season total thus far 12.59".

 

NWS seems to be getting rather alarmed regarding the next storm, especially the potential for wind damage.  The surface low does look stronger with each model run.  Batten down those hatches!

January’s storm total of 5.01” is the wettest month since February 2017. Not that long ago.

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You guys are basically getting the ideal storm- strong winds, heavy rain, thunder and lightning, heavy snow, etc.

 

I am so jealous, enjoy it!

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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0.64" from yesterday's storm. Thought I heard some thunder outside just now.

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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Already 0.05" since midnight. Mr Marine Layer (I remember you as Jet Developer?) you're in Orange County right?

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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Mostly light rain through last night with the rain letting up this morning for long enough to walk my dog around the block. Looks like the brunt of the storm moves through this afternoon.

Same here. 0.08" since midnight. Rain getting a bit heavier now

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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A forecast high of only 50F with showers on Tuesday? Brrrr. And maybe a mid February deluge coming? Epic

 

And not a single day has the temperature above 60F in the 14 day forecast.

 
 
 
5abe3d0f258d654b58d07b532440bd196bdbe364
 
 

 

 

 

That would not be an unusual forecast for Seattle in February.   You have our weather and we have Juneau's weather.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Storm total of 0.81". Which is actually less than the storm on Wednesday. 

 

 

Actually we are Not in an El Nino.

We're on the cusp of a weak El Nino threshold though. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

I have 1.07" for the day, not bad. Showers are on and off at the moment.

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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We are really getting dumped on right now. El Nino is delivering, unlike last time.

Every El Nino starting with 2006-07 has pretty much failed us. The atmosphere isn't syncing up with ocean events for some reason. 2009-10 was somewhat decent, but all the others were duds. We ironically got more out of the 2010-11 La Nina.

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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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It started raining here in Orange last night around 11 pm, and continued mostly light throughout the night and this morning. It then picked up around noon or so and was moderate to heavy at times, before ending around 3:30 pm. There have been a few showers since then, but not too much, since the center of the low is moving onshore north of here.

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Every El Nino starting with 2006-07 has pretty much failed us. The atmosphere isn't syncing up with ocean events for some reason. 2009-10 was somewhat decent, but all the others were duds. We ironically got more out of the 2010-11 La Nina.

 

2006-07 was a real dud in Socal, being the driest winter on record for Los Angeles. It was not a warm year like some of these recent drought years have been, and there was quite the cold snap in mid-January of that season that killed a fair number of ornamental plants in the Inland Empire that are not accustomed to the colder temperatures that hit the region at that time.

 

2015-16 was another dud of a winter, despite one of the stronger El Ninos on record, despite a very interesting summer season preceding it. However, once again the 2016-17 weak La Nina turned out to be much wetter than 2015-16.

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Don't know how much of it will verify, but the 18z GFS operational is amazing.  Below-normal heights and 850mb temps for the entire run.  Haven't seen a model run like that since I started tracking them in about 2012.

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2006-07 was a real dud in Socal, being the driest winter on record for Los Angeles. It was not a warm year like some of these recent drought years have been, and there was quite the cold snap in mid-January of that season that killed a fair number of ornamental plants in the Inland Empire that are not accustomed to the colder temperatures that hit the region at that time.

 

2015-16 was another dud of a winter, despite one of the stronger El Ninos on record, despite a very interesting summer season preceding it. However, once again the 2016-17 weak La Nina turned out to be much wetter than 2015-16.

 

I remember the January 2007 cold snap. Not far from me, the town of Menifee got down to 20F one morning, and the elevation there is only around 1400 feet above sea level.

 

They made it seem like we would get a lot more rain than we actually did today. There has hardly been any showers at all today. Only 0.06" since midnight when forecasts called for up to 1/3 of an inch.

 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2020-2021 Season Total: 0.00" (as of 9/30/20)

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 
 

 

 

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