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Weather in 2019


Phil

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Intermittent mist this afternoon ahead of the cyclone, not looking like any wintry start.

 

Wind advisory for gusts to 50mph tomorrow afternoon behind the Arctic front. Wind chills to -10*F appear likely.

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I suspect wind chill advisorys will be needed with those type of wind chill numbers

Yeah, probably. First legitimately frigid airmass of the winter too so people may not be used to it.

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Insane thermal gradient this morning..downtown DC is in the middle 50s with S winds gusting to 30mph while we’re still wedged in at 38 degrees with fog/mist,

 

Cold front blasts through around midday.

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Was dead calm all morning with thick fog, now getting slammed with wind and a few snowflakes. Dewpoint plummeting.

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My station registered a 53mph gust, highest so far this winter. No diurnal temperature cycle either, as CAA has been dominating.

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Edited this post for sequence instead of writing a new one.

 

There was a HUGE blast of wind late last night that hit the house like a ton of bricks. It was a blustery night but that gust was a f**king nuke..like a rogue wave. Startled the crap out of me.

 

It was strong enough to make my ears pop, send our 200 pound grill careening off the deck, rip off three windowscreens, and pelt the house with all kinds of tree debris.

 

I have no idea what caused it. It was a completely clear night, no snow squalls or anything. Must have been a mountain wave or just a random turbulent eddy. But the effects of it are evident across the neighborhood this morning. Sizeable and pine limbs blown hundreds of yards from the source trees, shingles, and hardwood twigs all over the place.

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Still roaring like a freight train this morning. Highest gust today has been 49mph (even with the trees). Temps have been hovering in the teens as well. Classic midwinter day for sure.

 

I think the gust last night came out of the N instead of the NW, because my station didn’t get it (blocked by a 70ft pine). Otherwise it would’ve easily surpassed the 53mph gust registered yesterday afternoon.

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Edited this post for sequence instead of writing a new one.

 

There was a HUGE blast of wind late last night that hit the house like a ton of bricks. It was a blustery night but that gust was a f**king nuke..like a rogue wave. Startled the crap out of me.

 

It was strong enough to make my ears pop, send our 200 pound grill careening off the deck, rip off three windowscreens, and pelt the house with all kinds of tree debris.

 

I have no idea what caused it. It was a completely clear night, no snow squalls or anything. Must have been a mountain wave or just a random turbulent eddy. But the effects of it are evident across the neighborhood this morning. Sizeable and pine limbs blown hundreds of yards from the source trees, shingles, and hardwood twigs all over the place.

 

Edited this post for sequence instead of writing a new one.

 

There was a HUGE blast of wind late last night that hit the house like a ton of bricks. It was a blustery night but that gust was a f**king nuke..like a rogue wave. Startled the crap out of me.

 

It was strong enough to make my ears pop, send our 200 pound grill careening off the deck, rip off three windowscreens, and pelt the house with all kinds of tree debris.

 

I have no idea what caused it. It was a completely clear night, no snow squalls or anything. Must have been a mountain wave or just a random turbulent eddy. But the effects of it are evident across the neighborhood this morning. Sizeable and pine limbs blown hundreds of yards from the source trees, shingles, and hardwood twigs all over the place.

 

I know this wind, It was howling all night down in nova.  We lost power for 8 hours around 7pm with that gust.  temp dropped to 13 overnight.

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I know this wind, It was howling all night down in nova. We lost power for 8 hours around 7pm with that gust. temp dropped to 13 overnight.

Yikes. Hope you had a way to stay warm.

 

Luckily we have propane and a backup wood burning stove as well, if necessary.

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Yikes. Hope you had a way to stay warm.

 

Luckily we have propane and a backup wood burning stove as well, if necessary.

We just moved here from WA, need to get a small genset to run the gas furnace at least.  I started a fire in the fireplace but didn't help much. I come from a farm where we had 50kw backup power so I'm a bit spoiled. When I was house shopping I asked everyone how often the power went out and it was as if I was from another planet.  welp got my answer

 

I was watching the mesoscale map as the power went out, the isobars at 850 and 925 were super tight and straight N/S as the gust hit.  My guess is the convergence was perfect for a wave, but open for your thoughts.

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We just moved here from WA, need to get a small genset to run the gas furnace at least. I started a fire in the fireplace but didn't help much. I come from a farm where we had 50kw backup power so I'm a bit spoiled. When I was house shopping I asked everyone how often the power went out and it was as if I was from another planet. welp got my answer

 

I was watching the mesoscale map as the power went out, the isobars at 850 and 925 were super tight and straight N/S as the gust hit. My guess is the convergence was perfect for a wave, but open for your thoughts.

Welcome to the area! I’m glad we have someone new to add to this empty thread, haha. Where in NOVA are you located?

 

Yeah, that might have been a factor. Our big wind events are almost always out of the W/NW during cold advection/pressure surge events, and are often enhanced by downsloping/mountain waves. You’ll rarely (if ever) see strong winds from the SE, E, or NE unless you live right on the coast.

 

Depending on exactly where you’re located with respect to the mountains upstream, these W/NW winds can easily surpass 70-80mph during strong frontal passages, and can rage on for days. So hopefully you picked a good spot, haha.

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Welcome to the area! I’m glad we have someone new to add to this empty thread, haha. Where in NOVA are you located?

 

Yeah, that might have been a factor. Our big wind events are almost always out of the W/NW during cold advection/pressure surge events, and are often enhanced by downsloping/mountain waves. You’ll rarely (if ever) see strong winds from the SE, E, or NE unless you live right on the coast.

 

Depending on exactly where you’re located with respect to the mountains upstream, these W/NW winds can easily surpass 70-80mph during strong frontal passages, and can rage on for days. So hopefully you picked a good spot, haha.

Thanks! near Lorton/Springfield up in the valley a bit.  I'm fascinated by following advection, if you've ever watched the fraser outflow events in the PNW, they are generally similar, different direction (NE tilt).  I'm surprised it is similar coming off a lower height range spread over a larger area but goes to show how much energy is in these continental systems! 

 

It's pretty interesting here getting a feel for how the lows redevelop and deform across the frontal boundaries vs. a pacific system.  The overruns are very different.

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Funny, just as I start talking about the rarity of southerly windstorms, we actually have a chance at one early tomorrow morning. Short lived event, but with the very strong LLJ and dynamic forcing ahead of the cold front, it’s a distinct possibility.

 

If this event materializes, it could be very problematic for the trees. Not only because they don’t experience strong south winds often, but because the ground is saturated, and heavy rain will be falling. Bad combo.

 

If it was W/NW winds, it’d be no big deal. I’m preparing to lose power, just in case.

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High wind warning for the Blue Ridge.

 

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a High Wind Warning, which is in effect until 6 AM EST Thursday. The Wind Advisory is no longer in effect.

 

* TIMING...Through tonight.

 

* WINDS...South 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

Advisory for 50mph gusts here. We’ll see if it verifies..so far the southerlies haven’t mixed down much.

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Bust here so far as far as wind is concerned.. ~ 1.1” of rain though, so the wet pattern is still going.

 

Morning high of 59.4*F, temps dropping thru the mid-40s currently.

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Just checking in on this thread for the 1st time in 2019. How would you summarize winter for you so far Phil?

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Looks like Dulles gusted to 51mph this afternoon.

 

Hit 40mph here. So under advisory criteria by 5mph.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looking more closely, I think tomorrow could be very interesting during the midday/early afternoon period. A very deep mixing layer/steep mid level lapse rates will be present w/ the passage of the Arctic front.

 

There could definitely be some dynamic snow squalls across the NW half of the CWA, as well as a brief, 2-3hr window of gusty westerly winds around 50mph (maybe 55-60mph within squalls if some of the BUFKIT soundings are to be trusted).

 

I think a wind advisory or special wx statement along/west of the Fall Line and DCA-northward might be warranted just in case that pans out.

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The American models and the ecmwf could not be in a more different page the American models are showing warm to record warm while the Ecmwf is showing coast to coast cold certainly has been a rough winter for forecasters as many pro mets have really been scratching there heads on how this winter has played out.it will be interesting how the remainder of this winter gos.regardless how the rest of this winter gos in my opinion eather 2019-2020 or 2020-2021 we will likely get a blockbuster winter season as every solar min we had at least one block buster so odds would point to one pretty soon.

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The problems so far this winter has been a mjo that has been out of phase with a warm enso event I think many in there fall winter outlooks went with a classic Nino type winter and that's where one could argue many got burnt on this winter as things were giving us clues this was not going to be a typical warm enso type of winter more of a fake boot but was largely missed by most.the fact north Carolina has more snow then alot of places in the northeast this winter is absurd those the 80s did have that quite a few times.

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The problems so far this winter has been a mjo that has been out of phase with a warm enso event I think many in there fall winter outlooks went with a classic Nino type winter and that's where one could argue many got burnt on this winter as things were giving us clues this was not going to be a typical warm enso type of winter more of a fake boot but was largely missed by most.the fact north Carolina has more snow then alot of places in the northeast this winter is absurd those the 80s did have that quite a few times.

Yada yada yada. They call them telisignals now days. Does it get cold because of a signal, turns negitive, or does the signal turn negative because it get cold. Its the chicken or the egg. We are in primetime in the mid Atlantic. Need I mention March 1993, or 1898...

 

 

I heard all the el nino drums.....

 

Capt Jackpot....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Looks like a decent frontal passage coming this morning.

 

Toasty morning high in the 60s, then 40+mph winds with temps falling into the 40s by 3pm, mid-20s tonight, and the mid/upper teens tomorrow night.

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Warm and breezy. Gust of 40mph according to my station with temps still in the 50s thanks to downsloping.

 

Upcoming pattern looks active as we ride the gradient.

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Been a tranquil week here, minus those 2 icy days.

 

Mid 60’s here with a stiff south wind as of 130pm. Hard to believe it could be snowing tonight.

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This weekend looks dynamic. Large Great Lakes cyclone blasts front through here on Sunday afternoon, with a vigorous wind field aloft. The component is somewhat more Wrly than NWrly initially, which climatologically favors areas along/north of I-70 for the strongest gusts.

 

As modeled now, it would not surprise me to see a few isolated gusts surpass 60mph around Parr’s Ridge, from N-MD down to the favored areas of Damascus, Mt. Airy, Germantown, Leesburg, etc. Less certain south of there, since there could be a cutoff of sorts as you head south of DC.

 

Also questionable whether we’ll be fully warm sectored or partially wedged in before the frontal passage, but in either case we’ll see a big temp spike beforehand, either via downslope/compressional warming or from the WAA itself behind the warm front.

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LWX is mentioning the poor diurnal timing as a reason for hedging in the lower elevations during the overnight hours.

 

Personally that’s baffling to me, given both the crashing thermals at the top of the mixing layer and the pressure rises. Usually W/NW winds mix down very well in these situations N of I-70, unless there’s precipitation falling or a muted pressure surge.

 

I think if there’s a “lull” it will be brief (in the 4AM to 7AM period) and wouldn’t warrant a discontinuation of the advisories except maybe along/south of I-70. I’d personally run it straight through until around 12-2pm on Monday just to be safe, but they’re the experts.

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That’s a 75mph mountain-wave on the 18z 3km NAM on Monday morning, in the classic location (this is 900mb, so well within the climatological boundary layer for that area as insolation increases).

 

Whether or not that verifies (to such an extreme and atbthe modeled timeframe) remains to be seen, but I’m thinking there will be isolated cases where stronger wind gusts that meet HWW criteria mix down east of the terrain, assuming the model solutions hold.

 

I’m sure LWX is keeping an eye on this one. Saturated soil + no serious wind events yet this winter could be problematic for the Monday morning rush hour if the worst comes to pass.

 

AF85Vo4.png

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These 850mb winds..at least it’s 12z and not 18z, or we’d be in huge trouble. Still, when you have 70-80kts @ 850mb in a CAA/pressure rise regime downstream and perpendicular to terrain, right as insolation increases following sunrise, that’s a recipe for at least a few isolated pseudo mountain-wave type gusts (or just strong gusts in general) in the favored locations.

 

K1S9ze0.png

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You guys keep safe.

 

Texas is a snoozer right now.

Clear, no wind, 60*. No rain, just nothin'

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Huge gusts in the mountains.

 

88mph at Snowshoe, and 83mph at a nearby station. Of course, that won’t all reach the surface out here, but that’s still legit.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWVSNOWS11#history

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Starting to roar here. Dulles already at 49mph, further west Martinsburg is at 62mph, Leesburg at 53mph.

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Yikes, 66mph at MRB now.

 

Roar starting to get more frequent but it hasn’t gone big just yet. Some quick pulses to 50mph starting just as the first wind advisory is expiring, lol (next one starts up at 4AM). Tomorrow morning will probably be crazy looking at the modeled upper level winds.

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