February 2019 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

On that theme, GGEM is a laughable non-stop parade of rainers. 3rd, 5th, 6th then all is suppressed after. Lovin the look! Feb's gonna rock! 

[East Dubzz]

GFS is drunk on the sunday monday system

It’s the 18z of course, but it looks even more drunk on this run haha

[snowstorm83]

CPC actually predicting a below normal February for most of the sub forum. It'll get cold again after the brief warm up but unfortunately also dry here.

[Minny_Weather]

EPS weeklies flashing a perfect SW flow pattern in about a week and a half. If we don't get a storm then then it doesn't bode well for the rest of Winter.

[gosaints]

Patience my friends

[Minny_Weather]

Patience my friends

I mean I'm not being impatient. I'm flat out saying that we open up the month with a favorable pattern for here then it turns unfavorable as NW flow makes its way back.

[Tony]

18z FV3 looks very interesting next week. Quite the change

[Madtown]

looks like end of next week is frigid again.

[gimmesnow]

18z FV3 looks very interesting next week. Quite the change

 

Yeah it is, that's an awesome surprise.

[gimmesnow]

SE Wisconsin still has a long way to go to make average for the year.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah it is, that's an awesome surprise.

While it looks nice, I’ll wait and see. FV3 has been far from reliable this winter.

[Madtown]

0z gfs looks pretty good for Wisco. 12+ in northern Wi. 6+ for most of the state through Fri

[jaster220]

Gets my vote, eye candy or not

 

[Minny_Weather]

High of 56 on Sunday here. Yeah, our snowpack is gonna get nuked over the weekend. Better it go fast than a slow painful death I guess.

[Stormhunter87]

Been busy lately with the little one but nice little warm up before the storms start rolling back through. Fv3 best hit so far but we will see if that plays out.

[Clinton]

Need to cool the upper layers cause this would be very rough.

[Clinton]

Feb. looks like a constant parade of storms and cold air.  We are going to be busy tracking storms!

[Niko]

Looks like a potent system. Precipitation forecast become rather mottled for SEMI as models are all over the place. Nevertheless, it is looking stormy.

[Niko]

Currently -5F w sunny skies.

[bud2380]

NWS in DVN and DMX both keep putting snow likely on Tuesday in the forecast.  I'm so confused where this is coming from.  I don't see a single model that shows snow on Tuesday in Iowa.  I don't understand what their forecast is based on.  Am I blind?  

[East Dubzz]

NWS in DVN and DMX both keep putting snow likely on Tuesday in the forecast. I'm so confused where this is coming from. I don't see a single model that shows snow on Tuesday in Iowa. I don't understand what their forecast is based on. Am I blind?

I believe the models were showing some potential for snow late on Tuesday, but they have since backed off a little. DMX mentions is briefly in their AFD. The northern and southern streams are not phasing like they were on prior runs, so it’s showing less of a chance for now. I’m guessing we’ll see that go away if the 12z runs today continue to show no snow.

 

If you go back a few models runs, most of them were showing some good precipitation later on Tuesday (though some were showing ice & rain potential), but the latest runs are not showing much anymore. Something to monitor to see if the models bring it back, or if it’ll indeed be a no-show.

[Stacsh]

Models have been pretty consisntent.  Looks like there will be some sort of storm/energy/front? for the sub mid-week next week.  Could be a whole mix bag of precip with quite a spread.  Something to track.  new thread?

[East Dubzz]

Models have been pretty consisntent. Looks like there will be some sort of storm/energy/front? for the sub mid-week next week. Could be a whole mix bag of precip with quite a spread. Something to track. new thread?

Probably give it a few more model runs.

[East Dubzz]

The 12z NAM was quite weak with the QPF in the warm sector of the storm on Monday. Not all that warm, either. Think the highest it gets is upper 30s here in DBQ.

[westMJim]

January wrap. At Grand Rapids January 2019 had a mean temperature of 21.8° and that was a departure of -2.8° the high for the month was 51 on the 7^th and the low was -10 on the 31^st There were 5 nights were the low dropped below zero. The high was 32 or lower on 22 of the days and all 31 days fell below 32 for the low. The month had 30.5” of snow fall and now Grand Rapids has had 33.7” since December 1^st and for the season Grand Rapids is now at 48.1” of snow fall in the last week we have made up a good amount of the snow fall deficit and are now just -1.9” for the winter season Grand Rapids is now ahead of the total snow fall to date from last winter when Grand Rapids ended the season with 77.7”

[gimmesnow]

NWS in DVN and DMX both keep putting snow likely on Tuesday in the forecast.  I'm so confused where this is coming from.  I don't see a single model that shows snow on Tuesday in Iowa.  I don't understand what their forecast is based on.  Am I blind?  

 

I've got 2 to 6 over two days in my forecast too, and I don't understand where it's coming from either. I see two rainers on both GFSes and Icon, with maybe some snow after that. Unless they are just assuming that GFS is going to come in too warm and north like it has done all season.

 

I really hope something pans out. My main snowmobiling friend bailed on snowmobiling this year. I have another friend who can ride but only from the 6th to the 13th. And a few days before he can ride we get rain and 40s. I hope we get something to turn around in that time frame so we can ride.

[East Dubzz]

I've got 2 to 6 over two days in my forecast too, and I don't understand where it's coming from either. I see two rainers on both GFSes and Icon, with maybe some snow after that. Unless they are just assuming that GFS is going to come in too warm and north like it has done all season.

 

I really hope something pans out. My main snowmobiling friend bailed on snowmobiling this year. I have another friend who can ride but only from the 6th to the 13th. And a few days before he can ride we get rain and 40s. I hope we get something to turn around in that time frame so we can ride.

They are not assuming that. The models previously showed some snow on late Tuesday, but they have since backed off on that. I assume those offices will lower snow chances by this afternoon.

[Minny_Weather]

Today begins the nuke of this snowpack. Can't complain too much, we did spend a good three weeks with a solid snowcover. I don't like the fact that we'll be going into next cold snap with brown grass, though.

[Tony]

Next week will be interesting with first warmth and rain, then average temps and possible ice storm to colder and possible snow storm. Models are all over the place but at least it will be stormy and another fun week of tracking storms and rumors of.

[Clinton]

This is concerning.  At least we have time for this to change.

[bud2380]

FV3 continues to be pretty strong for the Thursday-Friday system.

 

 

[Niko]

Beautiful sunny skies and still cold, but not as brutal as it has been w temps at 8F.

[East Dubzz]

Euro does bring some snow through the area late Tuesday / early Wednesday, but it’s not very well organized. Still, it’s something to watch.

[Tony]

Depending on which model you look at, it will be a Tuesday-Friday event for next week. Plenty of ice and snow showing up and multiple waves of energy riding along the zone. Will be a nightmare to forecast

[East Dubzz]

Depending on which model you look at, it will be a Tuesday-Friday event for next week. Plenty of ice and snow showing up and multiple waves of energy riding along the zone. Will be a nightmare to forecast

No doubt. Could be a wild mess for several days like the Euro shows, or could be very little action like the GFS shows.

[Stormhunter87]

This is concerning. At least we have time for this to change.

Eww that is very nasty.

[Tony]

Who ever has had the hot hand should start a new thread for this action.

[hlcater]

Euro has a pretty significant cold cutter next week. Not sure where it tracks but given strength and isobars, it would be a strong and windy system for someone.

[East Dubzz]

There is where it ends up

[Niko]

What a gorgeous day outside, although, the cold still bites. Temps in the upper single digits.