February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[GHweatherChris]

When? Not seeing it.

Low track trends north. Again I am only watching my locale.

[Guest CulverJosh]

And, we can't even get the deformation band to give us one last chance while the temps are perfect!  Sheesh.  Just has to be drifting north into Washington.  I am starting to wish this pattern would have never set up.  

[bainbridgekid]

The new FV-3-GFS is ridiculously moist with tomorrow's system and shows nearly 6" of snow for Seattle falling between 4 PM and 4 AM Monday.

 

That model really does have a big wet bias.

[GHweatherChris]

The new FV-3-GFS is ridiculously moist with tomorrow's system and shows nearly 6" of snow for Seattle falling between 4 PM and 4 AM Monday.

 

That model really does have a big wet bias.

Proof?

[TT-SEA]

How  do you think I will do tmrw?

 

 

I really have no knowledge of the local effects there.  Such a unique area.

[bainbridgekid]

Proof?

There is no reason to believe this will verify though. A quick hitting clipper system like tomorrow's should bring more like 1-3" for most spots outside of a convergence zone.

 

[The Swamp]

This could be a snow to rain event for the swamp.

[Guest Sounder]

And, we can't even get the deformation band to give us one last chance while the temps are perfect!  Sheesh.  Just has to be drifting north into Washington.  I am starting to wish this pattern would have never set up.  

New radar returns just started firing up along the Columbia River. I wouldn't fully count it out yet.

[GHweatherChris]

There is no reason to believe this will verify though. A quick hitting clipper system like tomorrow's should bring more like 1-3" for most spots outside of a convergence zone.

 

fv3-gfs_2019-02-10-00Z_036_49.444_233.867_45.611_239.867_Snowfall_24_highways_cities.png

FV3 has proven to be less than reliant though...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

There is no reason to believe this will verify though. A quick hitting clipper system like tomorrow's should bring more like 1-3" for most spots outside of a convergence zone.

 

fv3-gfs_2019-02-10-00Z_036_49.444_233.867_45.611_239.867_Snowfall_24_highways_cities.png

And it shows about 6 inches for Leavenworth.  Totally not buying it, though I wish it was true.

[Geos]

2/10 to 2/10 is just one day.

 

Thanks. Had a little wine while typing that. 

[bainbridgekid]

FV3 has proven to be less than reliant though...

It seems pretty good with the larger patterns, but definitely has a huge wet bias.

[Guest Sounder]

It certainly doesn't look great for Portland right now, but given how small of a shift to the south it would take to put Oregon back in the snow, I don't think Portlanders should totally write this week off just yet. There are multiple storms and still lots of times for things to shift. Plenty of chances left before this pattern breaks.

[overcast]

Not too impressed with the temp right now in Puyallup. Still 29 but low of 12 was modeled/forecasted. There's no way we hit 12 tomorrow morning, maybe 20 at this rate

[GHweatherChris]

It seems pretty good with the larger patterns, but definitely has a huge wet bias.

And show no snow here, hence my original comment.

[Gummy]

There is no reason to believe this will verify though. A quick hitting clipper system like tomorrow's should bring more like 1-3" for most spots outside of a convergence zone.

 

Yea, I live in North Seattle and I am not buying that 5-6 inches, hoping for 2-3".  Anything past the king Co. border and east and all bets are off though I have seen some crazy convergence zones form there over the years. I still remember when clearview (east of mill creek) picked up 10" of snow in late april of 2008!

[Requiem]

This could be a snow to rain event for the swamp.

 

Gonna be a rain to rain event down here in New Bakersfield.

[MossMan]

Not too impressed with the temp right now in Puyallup. Still 29 but low of 12 was modeled/forecasted. There's no way we hit 12 tomorrow morning, maybe 20 at this rate

Wow you are still running warm! 20.6 here currently.

[El_Nina]

And, we can't even get the deformation band to give us one last chance while the temps are perfect!  Sheesh.  Just has to be drifting north into Washington.  I am starting to wish this pattern would have never set up.

 

Well lucky for you it's turning south and I bet you're gonna be pleasantly surprised tonight.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Departures in NW Oregon today

 

PDX -10

SLE -5

EUG -6

TTD was -11 today. 5th straight double digit negative departure.

 

-10/-12/-10/-11/-11

[TT-SEA]

WRF looks like the ECMWF for the second system.    Decent snow event overnight on Monday into early Tuesday morning... then actually dry and partly cloudy during the afternoon with highs around 40.    Schools will certainly be closed that day because of snow in the morning but that day should greatly improve road conditions and thaw things out temporarily.  

[Requiem]

Well lucky for you it's turning south and I bet you're gonna be pleasantly surprised tonight.

 

ORLY?

[El_Nina]

ORLY?

The way that deformation zone is sagging south over SW Washington is looking promising. Even more promising is the moisture feed it has stretched all the way to Pendleton. I really dont see how the Portland area doesn't get anything as this slips south. The models way missed it last time in a similar setup and I dont see why it wouldn't happen again.

[Requiem]

The way that deformation zone is sagging south over SW Washington is looking promising. Even more promising is the moisture feed it has stretched all the way to Pendleton. I really dont see how the Portland area doesn't get anything as this slips south. The models way missed it last time in a similar setup and I dont see why it wouldn't happen again.

 

Hoping for Washington county to get something this time- they need it after missing out so badly.

[TT-SEA]

The way that deformation zone is sagging south over SW Washington is looking promising. Even more promising is the moisture feed it has stretched all the way to Pendleton. I really dont see how the Portland area doesn't get anything as this slips south. The models way missed it last time in a similar setup and I dont see why it wouldn't happen again.

Matt says no. Looks like it southward progress is hitting a downsloping wall.

[GHweatherChris]

There is no deformation zone.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Hoping this next system pulls through for Whatcom Co! It's still cold as s**t here in Bham and plenty of ice and snow from last week caked on some surfaces. Another couple inches would be great. I was up at Mount Baker this afternoon and it wasn't nearly as gusty as it was in town. 

 

 

I was wondering about that, The Britton Rd "Park & Ride" was quite full this morning, and I was expecting it to be pretty crappy (if not closed) up there as well.

[James Jones]

There is no deformation zone.

 

This is giving me a flashback to the great "That's not a trough" debate of summer 2016.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Matt says no. Looks like it southward progress is hitting a downsloping wall.

 

 

Oh get out of here with that!!  Downsloping wall?  Sure didn't bother the precip that has crossed I5 in Washington.  The band just hasn't shifted south yet.  Whether it stays intact is another thing.

[El_Nina]

Matt says no. Looks like it southward progress is hitting a downsloping wall.

Well at the very least the east wind will just blow it all over here

[Jesse]

Matt says no. Looks like it southward progress is hitting a downsloping wall.

Winds have really died back here the past few hours, for whatever that’s worth. And we are a downsloping hotspot when it’s happening.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Well at the very least the east wind will just blow it all over here

 

 

Naw, one has nothing to do with the other.  East wind is low level flow, that zone is mid level.

[El_Nina]

Naw, one has nothing to do with the other.  East wind is low level flow, that zone is mid level.

I was being sarcastic.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

WRF looks like the ECMWF for the second system.    Decent snow event overnight on Monday into early Tuesday morning... then actually dry and partly cloudy during the afternoon with highs around 40.    Schools will certainly be closed that day because of snow in the morning but that day should greatly improve road conditions and thaw things out temporarily.

 

40 where? Let me guess down town Seattle.

[Jesse]

Kelso reporting 32 and light snow, courtesy of the deformation band.

[Deweydog]

Winds have really died back here the past few hours, for whatever that’s worth. And we are a downsloping hotspot when it’s happening.

Still gusting to 30+ at Larch. That’s a mid level moisture killing machine east of I-5.

[TT-SEA]

40 where? Let me guess down town Seattle.

 

 

FWIW... across most of the Seattle area and down to Olympia.     We will see what the ECMWF shows... its 12Z run agreed.

 

I know.... the models are always too warm.   

[Guest CulverJosh]

I was being sarcastic.

 

LOL, I thought so.

[Deweydog]

Nice lil’ dusting in Kelso.

[MossMan]

Temps plummeting! 18.2!