March 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Courtesy to BAMWx, here is a 2m temp map off the 00z EPS for the 6-10 day period....not much AN to speak about right there...

 

[gosaints]

Diving into the EPS 6-10 as that seems to be your focus shows a cool shot early in that period followed by a return warm shot at the end.  As is plenty of models AN overall 6-10 as well.  The further east you are the worse the conditions look of course which is typical near lake michigan.

[Minny_Weather]

We may see brief BN temps in the period Tom mentioned, however like I said earlier there's no cold air to our North and West to work with, so we're not looking at a pattern change or anything imo.

[gosaints]

We may see brief BN temps in the period Tom mentioned, however like I said earlier there's no cold air to our North and West to work with, so we're not looking at a pattern change or anything imo.

agree

[Hawkeye]

Dang.  The Friday-Sunday period had been looking great for at least 50s if not 60s.  A few days ago the euro was showing upper 60s in Iowa.  However, models have been getting more robust with cold troughing diving down through the lakes.  Last night's euro was down to no better than low to mid 50s (which is still ok).  This morning the NAM has dropped us into the 40s Thu/Fri and the ICON has gone from upper 50s/low 60s Fri/Sat on yesterday morning's 12z run to upper 40s both days on this morning's run.  Yuck.

[Tom]

Dang. The Friday-Sunday period had been looking great for at least 50s if not 60s. A few days ago the euro was showing upper 60s in Iowa. However, models have been getting more robust with cold troughing diving down through the lakes. Last night's euro was down to no better than low to mid 50s (which is still ok). This morning the NAM has dropped us into the 40s Thu/Fri and the ICON has gone from upper 50s/low 60s Fri/Sat on yesterday morning's 12z run to upper 40s both days on this morning's run. Yuck.

Tell me about it...wouldn’t be surprised to see the warmth evaporate even more. The Plains look better to see Spring like conditions moreso than our region.

[East Dubzz]

Well this trend is rather disappointing. The Sunday night GFS was showing temps all the way up to 57 for Friday, but the latest run doesn’t even get above 50. I mean I’ll still take it, but quite a difference there.

[Tom]

We may see brief BN temps in the period Tom mentioned, however like I said earlier there's no cold air to our North and West to work with, so we're not looking at a pattern change or anything imo.

There will be Arctic air lurking to the north to close out the month.

[Stormy]

Warm nights will prob skew the overall temps but what good does that do??  Day time temps still not shaping up to be Spring like just yet.

High temps have been near normal here for the past few days and will be a bit above normal the rest of this week. That’s not bad at all for this time of the year. Sure am enjoying this a whole lot more than early March!

[Stormy]

It sure sounds like spring every morning here in the country with the robins, cardinals, etc singing at the first light of dawn. I’m enjoying these milder nights/mornings and it sounds as if the birds are as well. Feeling like early spring should.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS looks very active in the future.  Wet and possibly snowy weather will not be good news for flooded parts of Nebraska and  Iowa.

[CentralNebWeather]

Normally I would be cheering this.  Not saying it will verify, but if that would end up being more rain than snow, that is terrible news for the flooded areas.

[OmahaSnowFan]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/18/us/nebraska-floods.html

A story on the farmers and ranchers.

 

My brother in law has lost quite a few from the cold and blizzard conditions in the last month. Each one lost will put a burden on the farmer and will ultimately lead to higher beef prices unfortunately.

[CentralNebWeather]

Here is a link to pictures of the flooding at the Nebraska City exit off of I29 and Highway 2.  We stop here all the time on the way to KC.  Devastating.  

 

https://cdllife.com/2019/truck-stops-water-historic-flooding/

[St Paul Storm]

GFS March 19.gif

Normally I would be cheering this. Not saying it will verify, but if that would end up being more rain than snow, that is terrible news for the flooded areas.

Keep it away. I’m done with winter. Currently 51F on the back deck and I’m officially done with snow. Thanks.

[Stormy]

Didn't get above 51° all pm. here as have filtered sunshine, but I wasn't expecting much warmer.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Here is a link to pictures of the flooding at the Nebraska City exit off of I29 and Highway 2.  We stop here all the time on the way to KC.  Devastating.  

 

https://cdllife.com/2019/truck-stops-water-historic-flooding/

I was thinking all of those places would flood again. I think I mentioned this in another post that in the Sapp Bros they had pictures from 2011 where all you could see was their roof and it looks like the same thing happened again.

[Andie]

I just heard some very disheartening news and there is a report that over 1 million calves may have been lost in the state of NE alone. That is catastrophic if it is indeed true. My goodness. These floods will certainly have an impact on commodity prices in the near term.

This came at the worst time. Ranchers had no time to save these calves. It's very hard to read, but I can't imagine the distress these ranchers must be feeling. It's a double blow. These people love their herds and cared or them, and it's their living.

 

By "baby calves" they are talking 6-8 weeks old. They aren't strong. They stay very near their mothers.

It's just dreadful. Heartbreaking.

[Hawkeye]

Didn't get above 51° all pm. here as have filtered sunshine, but I wasn't expecting much warmer.

Yeah, the clouds put a halt to the rise, but it was a pleasant 50º with light wind.  I'd take a week of this.  The daffodils are certainly shooting up and today I saw the first crocus of the season.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah, the clouds put a halt to the rise, but it was a pleasant 50º with light wind. I'd take a week of this. The daffodils are certainly shooting up and today I saw the first crocus of the season.

Yeah I mean I want the 60s, but 50s with minimal wind is just fine too.

[Tom]

Yesterday, was a very delightful day with light wind and sunshine all day long, albeit filtered later in the day.  We reached a high temp of 51F and it felt pretty good to stand in the sunshine.  This morning, it's a different story as an upper level wave is producing some heavier showers around the area.  I really dislike cloudy, dreary, damp and cold Spring days.  The next 7-days are suggesting high temps around the average for the time of year until we get to Monday when Winter makes a return.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

The Areal Flood Warning for Lincoln, as well as the rest of Southeast NE, has finally been allowed to expire after 6 days. Still plenty of river flood warnings to go around.

[Tom]

The long standing idea that the North would still have a snow cover by months ends may have merit.  The 00z Euro still showing a rather deep snow pack up across the Northwoods by months end with a late season Arctic shot coming down from Canada.

 

@BrianJK, how much snow is OTG at your place up north?  You may be able to take the sleds out into early April this year with a solid 12-24" snow base still in tact.

 

So....about that warm up...ya, not happening unfortunately with only a couple days here and there caused by storm induced warmth later next week.  Opening Day for MLB is on tap later next week, which will be the earliest opening in history (28th) and the weather looks rather nice for opening day across the majority of the nation.  However, things change drastically as a late season Arctic shot knifes down the central CONUS to close out the month and looks to hang around into early April.  In fact, 00z EPS trending colder and more wintry across the Plains/MW to open up April.  Not good.  Not fun.

 

 

[westMJim]

It might be hard to believe but Grand Rapids is in record territory. The last time it reached 60 or better at Grand Rapids was back on October 14, 2018. That puts GR in 3rd place for the longest time between days that did not reach 60 or better. The longest was 183 days from October 13, 1925 to April 13, 1926 in 2nd place is 178 days from October 13 1969 to April 8, 1970 and this year so far we are now at 158 day. Note the earliest last 60 or better dates are October 13 1925 and 1969 and last year it was October 14 the 2nd earliest.

[gosaints]

10 day EURO meteogram for MSP

 

 

 

1 day below average according to the KING

[Niko]

Currently partly to mostly cloudy and temp is at 33F. Rain on the way for later tanite.

[BrianJK]

The long standing idea that the North would still have a snow cover by months ends may have merit.  The 00z Euro still showing a rather deep snow pack up across the Northwoods by months end with a late season Arctic shot coming down from Canada.

 

@BrianJK, how much snow is OTG at your place up north?  You may be able to take the sleds out into early April this year with a solid 12-24" snow base still in tact.

 

 

 

Easily 25"+ and extremely dense.  There hasn't been a lot of melt/runoff, but rather melt/compaction/refreeze because of how deep the snowpack was and because the nights have continued to drop into the teens.  This week should see a more sustained melt/runoff with sun and 40's during the day and only 20's at night.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the snow banks and  piles last into May.  Trails are scheduled to close on 3/31.  Current conditions vary widely:  poor in town and on road trials but good once you make your way out and into the woods.

[Andie]

Yesterday, was a very delightful day with light wind and sunshine all day long, albeit filtered later in the day.  We reached a high temp of 51F and it felt pretty good to stand in the sunshine.  This morning, it's a different story as an upper level wave is producing some heavier showers around the area.  I really dislike cloudy, dreary, damp and cold Spring days.  The next 7-days are suggesting high temps around the average for the time of year until we get to Monday when Winter makes a return.

Welcome to my winter this year, Tom. I agree it's been hard to get through without screaming.

The damp has been rough on most of us in Texas. It isn't our normal status.

 

My question to you is will the Southern Plains be dealing with continued "damp"/ higher than usual humidity with our summer heat?

We expect our normal humidity, but I've seen some that almost cook you.

[Tom]

[Minny_Weather]

Hello from Lake Park, MN. Snowpack here is still well over 2' in some spots. In a couple spots, there's nothing. Shows the power of the blizzards that strike this region. 26°F.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings mentions a very active pattern returning to the Central Plains.  Lots of chances for rain and possibly some snow.  Not great news for flooded areas or area farmers.  Hastings also mentioned that the 0Z Euro is very concerning for the amount of rainfall it wants to drop over Nebraska.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Jaycee]

700 pigs and they’ve only found 14 alive at this farm. Early estimates of agricultural loss in Nebraska alone is expected to be over 1 billion dollars

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/farmers-deadly-midwest-flooding-fremont-nebraska-2019-03-19/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab6a&linkId=65022346

 

 

I HATE seeing this. It breaks my heart, all the little baby cattle that got swept away too :'( :'( just a sad situation across the board. Heart goes out to everyone out there, what an awful event this has been.

[gimmesnow]

I had a very pleasant day yesterday. Upper 40s lower 50s, went west of Madison to Tyrol Basin to snowboard. $15 lift ticket, beautiful spring conditions. I don't know why, but riding around in slush when it's warm, eating lunch outside when taking a break snowboarding, it's all so nice. Every other resort in SE Wisconsin is closed, Wilmot, Alpine Valley, Cascade, Little Switz, Mountain Top. Snowboarded all day yesterday for $15, unbelievable. Tyrol Basin was really cool, they had some great runs there. They're planning on opening up next week for Spring Break too.

[CentralNebWeather]

I HATE seeing this. It breaks my heart, all the little baby cattle that got swept away too :'( :'( just a sad situation across the board. Heart goes out to everyone out there, what an awful event this has been.

I have many students in my classes that are from agricultural families.  The losses in our area won't be high due to flooding, but the cold and snowy winter has done cattle farmers no favors.  The cost of beef at the stores and restaurants and possibly milk will sure go up.  

[gabel23]

For those of you talking about the livestock situation here in Nebraska I got a horrible story for you. First off; the loss is just terrible to think about. The story is from the area in Duncan a herd of 300 is missing. People think they are all stuffed and stuck under the black bridge west of columbus. The black bridge is a railroad bridge over the loup that mulitple trains use daily. It has been closed for quite some time and trains are backed up all the way to Grand Island. Pretty horrible situation only getting worse. Also; random dead cows are strewn in fields, ditches and people's property. This will easily be over a billion dollar disaster for our great state. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS still painting a potent storm next weekend, March 29-31.  Looks like a lot of moisture, and much of it could be snow.  This weekend also looks wet.  Amazing how patterns can change.  Several years ago we had blowing dust advisories in the spring.

[Stormhunter87]

12Z GFS still painting a potent storm next weekend, March 29-31. Looks like a lot of moisture, and much of it could be snow. This weekend also looks wet. Amazing how patterns can change. Several years ago we had blowing dust advisories in the spring.

Great we have to travel to say our goodbyes to my Grandpa. Doesn't help

[snowstorm83]

Even as a winter weenie, I'm kinda in spring mode and don't care for more snow unless it's enough to break the #1 record. Then again snow may be preferred over rain for the time being with all the flooding issues. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Great we have to travel to say our goodbyes to my Grandpa. Doesn't help

I can remember last April, I think the 2nd week, we had a blizzard in Central Nebraska.  Unfortunately, the pattern looks very wet for those that really need it to be dry.  We are going into our wettest months of the year, climate wise, and this year the moisture is really unwanted.