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3/9 - 3/10 Major Plains/W GL's Cutter


Tom

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Folks, there is a saying "The Rich Get Richer"...in terms of this next potential blockbuster storm, anyone from NE/IA up into the Upper Midwest may get raked by another....Blizzard???  Gosh, what an unbelievable pattern for the snow enthusiasts across our Sub who have been setting snow records since living through the Historic month of Feb.  Nature just doesn't seem to want to let go just yet as March continues to "Roar like a Lion".

 

With that being said, the LRC has proven to be another great LR tool to accurately predict a storm system that's been on the calendar for a while now.  While there are some differences in the modeling, I'm convinced this will be another major winter storm and quite possibly the 2nd Blizzard since making that call a few weeks ago.  Who will score a major snow storm this time???

 

Let's discuss....

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Good number of these favor eastern Nebraska and Iowa. I love spring but honestly I wouldn't mind another blast of winter weather. Going to come down to temps and track as usual for these storms. As discussed in other threads I think the models are having a hard time with the snow pack. But we shall see.

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I better enjoy this week because it's going to be the last good week of actual snow for snowboarding if that ends up raining in SE Wisco. I think this is going to be one of those rainers that takes a week off my season. Never happy to see one of those. Kind of a big deal when you go as much as I do, but I have gone a lot this year.

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I’m rooting for snow with this, mostly to avoid hydro issues. We have between 3-5” of liquid water in the current snowpack. Frost is currently between 35-40” deep into the soil. If we get rain with this, some people are in trouble. Worst case scenario is this thing cuts pretty hard and ends up smashing the Dakotas with snow, leaving us with rain. I’ll be watching this closely for many reasons.

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Should be noted that at HR 120- the GFS has the L near Sioux City ,IA. The UKMet is only about 400 miles S in OK

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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UK has mid 990s low tracking through southern Missouri, then weakens and lifts up to northern Indiana.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro has shifted S quite a bit. ALL snow for TWin Cities. Still rain in most of IA- but a considerable Shift S.  I don't wish the rain - with a deep snow pack on my worst enemy. 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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My son and I are going down to Lincoln early Friday morning to watch the state semi finals of the boys state basketball tournament.  My plan is to drive home late after the finals, (probably after 10 PM).  We live a little over 2 hours west of Lincoln.  Of course the weather is now saying freezing rain starting late Friday night or Saturday morning.  I think we will bring a bag along and have to possibly stay in a hotel if this comes about.  My hope is we can make it back home before it hits.  This storm will cause problems for sure.

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I think what the 0z Euro shows is a realistic possibility in terms of the track (I think the amounts are overdone). GFS is cutting pretty hard. I just don’t see a storm slicing through a deep snowpack like that in early March. But as this winter has shown, ‘norms’ can be thrown out the window.

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I think what the 0z Euro shows is a realistic possibility in terms of the track (I think the amounts are overdone). GFS is cutting pretty hard. I just don’t see a storm slicing through a deep snowpack like that in early March. But as this winter has shown, ‘norms’ can be thrown out the window.

Dat spread

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png

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Not a lot...less than .40” qpf

 

The euro has a nice plume of precip over here, has widespread inch rain totals across eastern Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not a lot...less than .40” qpf

 

Good, it's been trending down less and less. With man made snow, you usually lose about an inch or so (depend on temps) for each tenth of rain. If I can walk away from this and lose 4 to 8 inches of base, when there's about 20 out there, I'll be able to capitalize on the cold that'll come back after this. If this ends up being a 1 inch or more of rain, things are going to get bad.

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