East Dubzz Posted March 5, 2019 Report Share Posted March 5, 2019 So I’m trying to start to learn more about non-winter related weather in regards to the models and what not. What is important to look at on the models for thunderstorm potential? I really don’t even know where to begin with that, but I’m interested if anyone knows some things to maybe look at that could help me figure out if the models are suggesting the potential for some storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 5, 2019 Report Share Posted March 5, 2019 So I’m trying to start to learn more about non-winter related weather in regards to the models and what not. What is important to look at on the models for thunderstorm potential? I really don’t even know where to begin with that, but I’m interested if anyone knows some things to maybe look at that could help me figure out if the models are suggesting the potential for some storms.Personally I look at cape, dew points, and shear. Im also lucky I have my Dad who's focus was severe weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 5, 2019 Report Share Posted March 5, 2019 i don't use models in the summer time. Even the Convection allowing models struggle and I find them of little help. Hence why I'am not on here in the summer, If I'am chasing- I head to the dead center of the "risk" area and go from there. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 5, 2019 Report Share Posted March 5, 2019 So I’m trying to start to learn more about non-winter related weather in regards to the models and what not. What is important to look at on the models for thunderstorm potential? I really don’t even know where to begin with that, but I’m interested if anyone knows some things to maybe look at that could help me figure out if the models are suggesting the potential for some storms. I always look for 3 things. CAPE, shear, and a trigger to set off the storms.You might already know this but, CAPE is energy in the atmosphere, shear is the amount of turning of the winds in the atmosphere, and then of course a trigger could be a warm front, cold front, or a dry line.CAPE alone or shear alone won't mean severe storms. CAPE with little to no shear will mean your normal everyday thunderstorm. Also during the summer you will frequently get days with 4000-6000 CAPE, but no storms if there isn't something to cause the storm to form to begin with.Normally to get severe weather, you want "bulk shear" to be above 35-40 kts. Anything less than that, you will usually get weaker storms or "pulse" severe storms that are only severe briefly and usually just produce strong winds as they collapse. To look at tornado potential, you want to look at the low level shear. Usually 25-30+ knots is decent for tornado potential. I like pivotalweather.com and the severe weather section under the models. I also like that they have a clickable map to see soundings, which are basically a forecast picture of the entire column of the atmosphere so you can see how the winds are turning with height, strength of the cap, etc. If you're looking for just the potential of getting general storms, then looking for areas of CAPE and areas of negative lifted indices(another thunderstorm index) are going to be the best chances at getting storms along a front. When I look at this weekend in Iowa, the GFS is showing areas near the Missouri border of modest CAPE on Saturday, so it is definitely possible to get some thunderstorms. Not seeing really any severe potential that far north though. Unfortunately, areas further south look like there could be another outbreak like last weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Meanwhile, 18z GEFS for the weekend storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 I'm in the game on #16. Go do it ensemble #16 I believe in you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 So I’m trying to start to learn more about non-winter related weather in regards to the models and what not. What is important to look at on the models for thunderstorm potential? I really don’t even know where to begin with that, but I’m interested if anyone knows some things to maybe look at that could help me figure out if the models are suggesting the potential for some storms.OmahaSnowFan hit most of it, but also look at CIN values. That's capping. You can have every other factor be good but if there's too much capping you're not gonna get storms. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 GFS further E than 18Z with L Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 This weekend’s storm might be the appetizer to the one on the 13/14. Talk about 2 monsters back to back. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 UK Met has low over Keokuk,IA at HR 96. GFS just W of Waterloo. That doesn't sound like much - but that's 150 miles of changing ALL rain for some - to maybe 1/2 and 1/2. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 That second storm pounds eastern Nebraska based on the cmc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 All the models beginning to trend towards the King as he holds steady....Upper MW/MN/N WI specialEdit: Euro also is showing max wind gusts of 40-50 mph across NE/S MN/IA. Might be a close call for yet another Blizzard to hit the region. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 00z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Few- if any people care what I think- I get it. But I think the EURO is wrong on this system. Why? Because it's an outlier (supposedly- thrown out by several NWS AFD's) with the earlier system.( If you can't get the pattern down beforehand- how can you after?) I believe the Euro is too cold in the N and too warm in the S (Upper Midwest speaking) and this system will not cut like the GFS and EURO show- but more like the UKIE and W to E over the PLains and then CUT once to the E of the Mississippi. Just my thoughts. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Might take Friday off to prepare. Roof raking and/or shoveling and just trying to clear more room to put this new snow. MPX didn’t say anything about the Euro, but they did say the CMC was too warm and was messing with their blended guidance. This is going to be interesting. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 MAJOR south shift/later cutting on the 12z Nam, it is the Nam, but a lot will be surprised if others jump on board. Unlikely, but kind of what Grizzcoat talked about above 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 MAJOR south shift/later cutting on the 12z Nam, it is the Nam, but a lot will be surprised if others jump on board. Unlikely, but kind of what Grizzcoat talked about aboveWasn't paying attention to the Nam for this storm but wow you're right. All they are focused on here is rain/snow mix but Nam is showing 5-7 here. That isn't massive but a big change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Thanks for the responses yesterday on storms, guys! I look forward to learning more about this. As for the storm.. I wouldn’t take the NAM worth much at this point in time. Long-range NAM is more useless than the FV3. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 I am riding the EURO. Maybe a slight south adjustment do to the snowpack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 If we were to believe the Nam we also need to watch for major ice. The totals in western Iowa are crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 If we were to believe the Nam we also need to watch for major ice. The totals in western Iowa are crazy.Can you post the link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Can you post the linkhttps://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019030612&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_c&p=zr_acc&m=nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Wasn't paying attention to the Nam for this storm but wow you're right. All they are focused on here is rain/snow mix but Nam is showing 5-7 here. That isn't massive but a big change.I'm not seeing 5-7 on the NAM for the metro area. Based on Kuchera on Pivotal, it's showing basically 2-3. Still something to watch though of course.https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h&rh=2019030612&fh=84&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc= 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Looks like the 12z GEFS mean moved north a few ticks. Euro a few ticks stronger than 0z with a 989mb over N Lake Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Looks like the 12z GEFS mean moved north a few ticks. Euro a few ticks stronger than 0z with a 989mb over N Lake Michigan.EURO is an I90 shutdown https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/minnesota/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190310-2100z.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 EURO is an I90 shutdown https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/minnesota/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190310-2100z.htmlYup. Another blizzard is in the works it appears. Let’s hope people heed the warning this time and don’t get stranded. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Can't see the page :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Keeps me all snow. I'm not sure what the record snow depth would be but I have to believe this would approach it. EURO is an I90 shutdown https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/minnesota/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190310-2100z.html Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 The Euro shows 75" of snow OTG in eastern SoDak after these next two blizzards this weekend and next week 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Melting 30-75” of snow, then 40” of frost would mean spring cancel. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Melting 30-75” of snow, then 40” of frost would mean spring cancel.I have resigned myself to the fact that spring will suck and we go straight to summer most likely. Oh well it has been worht it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 I have resigned myself to the fact that spring will suck and we go straight to summer most likely. Oh well it has been worht itNo doubt about it. Well worth it indeed. I’ll take spring cancel every year if we got these winters. Last year we got 18” of snow the 3rd week of April, and we had excessive heat warnings Memorial Day weekend. Might be a repeat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 12z EPS looks very similar to the 12z op Euro in terms of low placement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Melting 30-75” of snow, then 40” of frost would mean spring cancel.It will be a crazy flood season, though! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 0z NAM way north.....crazy north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 0z NAM way north.....crazy north.Looks like it occludes pretty quick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Looks like it occludes pretty quickdon't sleep on it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 00z Euro...Dakotas/MN crush job still in the works... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Might not become a Blizzard for most of S/C MN, but models certainly are still showing high winds for NE/SD/IA/IL/WI/MI which really resembles the same places that received high winds from the last Blizzard that hit the region. Quite a soaking rain across IA per the 00z Euro. Hydro issues will be a big concern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 MPX going with an early 7-13” with possible thunder snow and possible 2”+ per hour on saturday for the metro. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.