Jump to content

3/9 - 3/10 Major Plains/W GL's Cutter


Tom

Recommended Posts

So I’m trying to start to learn more about non-winter related weather in regards to the models and what not.

 

What is important to look at on the models for thunderstorm potential? I really don’t even know where to begin with that, but I’m interested if anyone knows some things to maybe look at that could help me figure out if the models are suggesting the potential for some storms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So I’m trying to start to learn more about non-winter related weather in regards to the models and what not.

 

What is important to look at on the models for thunderstorm potential? I really don’t even know where to begin with that, but I’m interested if anyone knows some things to maybe look at that could help me figure out if the models are suggesting the potential for some storms.

Personally I look at cape, dew points, and shear. Im also lucky I have my Dad who's focus was severe weather.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

i don't use models in the summer time. Even the Convection allowing  models struggle and I find them of little help.  Hence why I'am not on here in the summer,  If I'am chasing- I head to the dead center of the "risk" area and go from there.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So I’m trying to start to learn more about non-winter related weather in regards to the models and what not.

 

What is important to look at on the models for thunderstorm potential? I really don’t even know where to begin with that, but I’m interested if anyone knows some things to maybe look at that could help me figure out if the models are suggesting the potential for some storms.

 

I always look for 3 things. CAPE, shear, and a trigger to set off the storms.

You might already know this but, CAPE is energy in the atmosphere, shear is the amount of turning of the winds in the atmosphere, and then of course a trigger could be a warm front, cold front, or a dry line.

CAPE alone or shear alone won't mean severe storms. CAPE with little to no shear will mean your normal everyday thunderstorm. Also during the summer you will frequently get days with 4000-6000 CAPE, but no storms if there isn't something to cause the storm to form to begin with.

Normally to get severe weather, you want "bulk shear" to be above 35-40 kts. Anything less than that, you will usually get weaker storms or "pulse" severe storms that are only severe briefly and usually just produce strong winds as they collapse. To look at tornado potential, you want to look at the low level shear. Usually 25-30+ knots is decent for tornado potential.

 

I like pivotalweather.com and the severe weather section under the models. I also like that they have a clickable map to see soundings, which are basically a forecast picture of the entire column of the atmosphere so you can see how the winds are turning with height, strength of the cap, etc.

 

If you're looking for just the potential of getting general storms, then looking for areas of CAPE and areas of negative lifted indices(another thunderstorm index) are going to be the best chances at getting storms along a front. When I look at this weekend in Iowa, the GFS is showing areas near the Missouri border of modest CAPE on Saturday, so it is definitely possible to get some thunderstorms. Not seeing really any severe potential that far north though. Unfortunately, areas further south look like there could be another outbreak like last weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So I’m trying to start to learn more about non-winter related weather in regards to the models and what not.

 

What is important to look at on the models for thunderstorm potential? I really don’t even know where to begin with that, but I’m interested if anyone knows some things to maybe look at that could help me figure out if the models are suggesting the potential for some storms.

OmahaSnowFan hit most of it, but also look at CIN values. That's capping. You can have every other factor be good but if there's too much capping you're not gonna get storms.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UK Met has low over Keokuk,IA at HR 96. GFS just W of Waterloo. That doesn't sound like much - but that's 150 miles of changing ALL rain for some - to maybe 1/2 and 1/2.

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All the models beginning to trend towards the King as he holds steady....Upper MW/MN/N WI special

Edit: Euro also is showing max wind gusts of 40-50 mph across NE/S MN/IA.  Might be a close call for yet another Blizzard to hit the region.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Few- if any people care what I think- I get it. But I think the  EURO is wrong on this system. Why? Because it's an outlier (supposedly- thrown out by several NWS AFD's)  with the earlier system.( If you can't get the pattern down beforehand- how can you after?)  I believe the Euro is too cold in the N and too warm in the S (Upper Midwest speaking) and this system will not cut like the GFS and EURO show- but more like the UKIE and W to E over the PLains and then CUT once to the E of the Mississippi.  Just my thoughts.  

  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MAJOR south shift/later cutting on the 12z Nam, it is the Nam, but a lot will be surprised if others jump on board. Unlikely, but kind of what Grizzcoat talked about above

Wasn't paying attention to the Nam for this storm but wow you're right. All they are focused on here is rain/snow mix but Nam is showing 5-7 here. That isn't massive but a big change.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wasn't paying attention to the Nam for this storm but wow you're right. All they are focused on here is rain/snow mix but Nam is showing 5-7 here. That isn't massive but a big change.

I'm not seeing 5-7 on the NAM for the metro area. Based on Kuchera on Pivotal, it's showing basically 2-3. Still something to watch though of course.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h&rh=2019030612&fh=84&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have resigned myself to the fact that spring will suck and we go straight to summer most likely. Oh well it has been worht it

No doubt about it. Well worth it indeed. I’ll take spring cancel every year if we got these winters.

 

Last year we got 18” of snow the 3rd week of April, and we had excessive heat warnings Memorial Day weekend. Might be a repeat.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Might not become a Blizzard for most of S/C MN, but models certainly are still showing high winds for NE/SD/IA/IL/WI/MI which really resembles the same places that received high winds from the last Blizzard that hit the region.  Quite a soaking rain across IA per the 00z Euro.  Hydro issues will be a big concern.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...