Mountain West Discussion

[Front Ranger]

Looks like our dry pattern is finally breaking down tonight. Thought we were going to have to wait until Friday night to see snow again but the models have picked up on a weak shortwave diving through the area tomorrow morning. Should end the dry streak at 8 days here which hasn't actually been all that bad with the inversions set in. Still have about 6" on the ground here but it will be nice to get a little refresh.

 

<_>

 

Hasn't snowed here in about 5 weeks.

[Kayla]

<_>

 

Hasn't snowed here in about 5 weeks.

 

Ughh...that sucks! Didn't realize it's been THAT bad.

[Black Hole]

<_>

 

Hasn't snowed here in about 5 weeks.

Only one snowfall here so far, at 3". 

 

Looks like a chance of maybe an inch on Saturday though to break this inversion of death. We are socked in with fog and severe pollution. 

[Front Ranger]

Ughh...that sucks! Didn't realize it's been THAT bad.

 

Yeah, one of the worst stretches from Nov 1 on that I've seen here.

 

I'm honestly happy for you, though. Reminds me of when I moved here in 2006 and ended up seeing an amazing first winter. 

[Kayla]

Yeah, one of the worst stretches from Nov 1 on that I've seen here.

 

I'm honestly happy for you, though. Reminds me of when I moved here in 2006 and ended up seeing an amazing first winter. 

 

Well, it's only mid December so don't lose complete hope yet! I'm sure we'll all see plenty of action in January. 

 

Thanks! Seems like I keep being in the sweet spot no matter what happens in the models these days. It really has been quite amazing, even for a Niña. It's been a lot of fun recording official snowfall totals for the NWS and COOP this year and of course for my own personal records. Definitely picked a good year to start!

[Front Ranger]

No real cold here anytime soon, but at it looks like a little snow tonight (1-2"), and then maybe a little more on Saturday night. I'll take it!

[Kayla]

2.3" of snowfall today so far. Still snowing light to moderately. Nice little snowfall to freshen things up!

 

Looks like we're still on track for about 2-4" on Friday night into Saturday. Still lots of questions on where we go beyond Sunday. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

It has been bone dry in Socal this fall with only a few hundredths of an inch since October 1. It appears the entire SW and Intermountain West regions are getting off to a rather bad start this season. Hopefully as we go into January things get more active for the entire region. This bone dry pattern can't continue forever! This has even been dry for a La Nina pattern.

[Kayla]

Beautiful sunrise this morning. Currently 19F.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/250ox9c.jpg

[Front Ranger]

Got just under 1" last night, same in Boulder. Hopefully a small taste of much better things to come in the weeks ahead.

[Kayla]

Models have trended a little stronger (surprise!) with tonights system. Expecting 3-5" in town and 4-6" of snowfall on my roof through tomorrow. 

 

Looks like a few snow showers on Monday with little accumulation expected. Mid next weeks cold (Arctic?) air is still in question. Heavy snow and very cold air is looking possible beginning on Wednesday but still lots of details to iron out with little model agreement.

[Kayla]

Of note, the Bozeman Airport had about 32 straight hours of thick freezing fog that just finally broke early this morning. There is an incredibly thick rime ice layer on everything in the valley on top of the fresh snow that fell just before the fog set in. Roads are a mess but it is quite beautiful!

[Mercurial]

First post

 

Snowing lightly here at the Big Mountain base/village area.  About 2" today so far.  Snowpack up to around 8".  Pitiful for mid December, but we snow...

[Mercurial]

Models have trended a little stronger (surprise!) with tonights system. Expecting 3-5" in town and 4-6" of snowfall on my roof through tomorrow. 

 

Looks like a few snow showers on Monday with little accumulation expected. Mid next weeks cold (Arctic?) air is still in question. Heavy snow and very cold air is looking possible beginning on Wednesday but still lots of details to iron out with little model agreement.

 

Checked the weather station in your sig.  You've got one of the best valley microclimates in the entire state.  I went to school at MSU and lived through the winters of 2007 through 2010.  Bozeman has a good snow microclimate and yours is significantly better (as I'm sure you've already figured out lol).  Being tucked against the foothills of the Gallatins gives you some great orographic lift.  

 

Exciting to find another Montanan on a wx forum

[Front Ranger]

First post

 

Snowing lightly here at the Big Mountain base/village area.  About 2" today so far.  Snowpack up to around 8".  Pitiful for mid December, but we snow...

 

Welcome! Great to have another Mountain West poster. 

[Black Hole]

First post

 

Snowing lightly here at the Big Mountain base/village area.  About 2" today so far.  Snowpack up to around 8".  Pitiful for mid December, but we snow...

Welcome to the group!

[Mercurial]

Welcome to the group!

 

 

Welcome! Great to have another Mountain West poster. 

 

Thanks all!

[Kayla]

Checked the weather station in your sig.  You've got one of the best valley microclimates in the entire state.  I went to school at MSU and lived through the winters of 2007 through 2010.  Bozeman has a good snow microclimate and yours is significantly better (as I'm sure you've already figured out lol).  Being tucked against the foothills of the Gallatins gives you some great orographic lift.  

 

Exciting to find another Montanan on a wx forum

 

Welcome!! SO great to see a fellow Montanian on here! We love the Whitefish area and thought about moving there at some point as well but in the end, the Bozeman area won out mainly due to Nordic Skiing opportunities in and around Bozeman and the yearly snowfall amounts. It is quite amazing how well the city of Bozeman does in the snowfall department compared to other Montana cities.

 

After studying the microclimates for a while we landed here south of town up against the Gallatins and love it! I'm expecting on average about 110-120" of snowfall yearly. Already up to nearly 60" of snowfall this season so we're off to a pretty good start!

 

Really looking forward to hearing your reports this season from up that way! 

[Mercurial]

Welcome!! SO great to see a fellow Montanian on here! We love the Whitefish area and thought about moving there at some point as well but in the end, the Bozeman area won out mainly due to Nordic Skiing opportunities in and around Bozeman and the yearly snowfall amounts. It is quite amazing how well the city of Bozeman does in the snowfall department compared to other Montana cities.

 

After studying the microclimates for a while we landed here south of town up against the Gallatins and love it! I'm expecting on average about 110-120" of snowfall yearly. Already up to nearly 60" of snowfall this season so we're off to a pretty good start!

 

Really looking forward to hearing your reports this season from up that way! 

 

110-120 sounds about right.  Whitefish attracts an interesting cast of characters, as does the Flathead in general... lol.  You've also got to be okay with six months of virtually nonstop overcast skies and fog up here.  Love the proximity to GNP and the Canadian Rockies though.  

 

I can't wait until I have something to report!  lol.  Super dry winter up here so far; Bridger and Big Sky have been killing us.  Did pick up 3" today though, still have lots of pixiedust around.   

[Black Hole]

Managed a dusting from todays storm, but its melted off with just a few flurries now. Didn't expect much but I thought I'd manage an inch at least.

Next chance of snow looks to be the 21st. Not a lot of moisture but appears to be our coldest airmass of the year so far. 

[Mercurial]

Took this picture this morning.  Lots of fog and light snow are smothering our tamaracks nicely...

 

[Kayla]

So turns out we got buried once again today! Up to 11" on the day now and it's still snowing. About 20" on the ground now. It's once again been another overachieving storm, even downtown. Looked like they had at least 7-8" down there earlier today and likely more now.

 

Snow banks are getting up there!

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/jz7c3t.jpg

[Jesse]

Took this picture this morning. Lots of fog and light snow are smothering our tamaracks nicely...

 

Where in or near Whitefish are you?

[Mercurial]

Where in or near Whitefish are you?

 

Near the base area of Big Mountain, in a sk in/out condo there.  I like to ski

[Kayla]

Low of 7F before the clouds moved in this morning.

 

A few snow showers expected tomorrow and a bit of a warmup though Tuesday out ahead of a cold front moving in on Wednesday. As of right now, the Wednesday system is looking decently strong then the cold air really moves in on Thursday. Friday brings another clipper type system with extremely high snowfall ratios with the cold air (-20C @700mb) in place. 00z ECMWF showed 700mb dropping to as low as -30C by the weekend. Would be easily good enough for widespread -20F to -35F readings in the area. 

[Black Hole]

Light snow below the radar beam continued for a while overnight I guess, ended up with .9" which isn't much but its still the 2nd biggest snowfall this year... Anyway another storm on Wednesday night into Thursday could be a 2-4" storm if models don't change, however it has splitting tendencies once again so I am wary. 

[Mercurial]

0.3 inches of zr today, most I've ever seen here.  Snowpack is glacial.  Awful skiing 

[Mercurial]

On the other hand, the upcoming forecast is looking a lot better.  SQUEEEEE!

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/mso/WxStory/WeatherStory1.png?eb84a028904952c8b47dbea7cb24722f

[Front Ranger]

The first legit Arctic blast of the season is progged for later this coming week, and it looks to be a doozy. NWS going with highs around 20 for next weekend...they never go very extreme that far out, so you know guidance is actually quite a bit colder. Would not be surprised to see some single digit highs, possibly colder, and lows in the -10 to -20 range.

[Mercurial]

Models keep crushing us over and over through Wednesday.  Wow.  00z GFS did downgrade Marias Pass from 40"+ to 35-40" though, LOL.  

 

Meanwhile, -sn right now. 

[Black Hole]

The first legit Arctic blast of the season is progged for later this coming week, and it looks to be a doozy. NWS going with highs around 20 for next weekend...they never go very extreme that far out, so you know guidance is actually quite a bit colder. Would not be surprised to see some single digit highs, possibly colder, and lows in the -10 to -20 range.

Some of the stuff showing up on the models is quite crazy. The 12z ECMWF had -26C at 700 mb here, and 00z ECMWF (while not done) appears to be headed for an even colder blast. 

[Kayla]

Jeez...12z GFS shows just an incredible amount of cold air over the region for a very extended period. Way out in lala land but the GFS shows 480dm and 850/700mb temps dropping to nearly -40C! Would likely bring many record breaking temps approaching 50F below zero.

 

No matter the model, it looks like we are in store for below zero readings beginning Thursday morning through the extended range with a high potential of an absolutely frigid New Year.

[Black Hole]

12z models in agreement for 2-4" on Wednesday evening, but we will see about that.

Also decent agreement that there will be an arctic front towards Fri-Sat but how cold and how much snow remains to be seen. I think this second one will probably be mostly cold and dry.

[Front Ranger]

At this point, it's looking like 1-3" of powder with the initial Arctic front on Thursday. Then likely a bigger snowstorm over the weekend with the arrival of the really cold air.

 

Of course, I'm flying out of here just as things finally start to get interesting.

[Scott]

There is some snow on the ground here, but not that much (maybe 3" or so) and way below normal.  We are supposed to get somewhat chilly by Saturday though.  I'm still guessing that it will be colder that.  Thus far the coldest we have had this season was -8 on 12/6, but  doesn't really qualify as chilly in this area.   

 

[Black Hole]

Not really surprised, but snow totals are decreasing on the models as the event is approaching, a general 1-3" now shown...maybe be down even further tomorrow if the trend continues. Still, always glad to see something.

[Kayla]

It's been a rough couple of days on the snowpack as we've been getting downslope winds for almost 48 hours now which has kept us above freezing during that entire time. Looking forward to the cold and snow coming tomorrow to freshen things up. Looks like 4-6" of snow here tomorrow, 3-5" in town. 

 

Friday brings another round of snow with high snowfall ratios as the cold air really settles in. Not looking all that Arctic now, but it will still be enough to see my first sub zero temps of the season by Thursday morning.

[Mercurial]

Snowy night in Whitefish, was absolutely ripping snow all day and night until about 20 minutes ago.  In a lull now near the end of the event.

 

[Kayla]

Absolutely dumping here this morning with nearly zero visibility. Had an impressive 14º temp drop in ~30 minutes (42F down to 28F) with the strong cold front. Winds are still whipping around behind the front and the snow is already piling up.

 

Currently 27F and dropping. 

[Front Ranger]

Still looks like a decent little snowstorm tomorrow here, with probably 1-3".

 

Everything beyond that has modified/dried out, though.