Mountain West Discussion

[Guest happ]

Still looks like a decent little snowstorm tomorrow here, with probably 1-3".

 

Everything beyond that has modified/dried out, though.

 

Hope the Rockies do better than the Sierra 

[Guest happ]

Interesting how warm it can get in Denver.

 

DENVER, CO     MOSUNNY   63   8  11 S15G22    29.69F                 

[Black Hole]

Looking at a 1-2 inches tonight, probably, then another chance of 1-2" on Friday-Saturday. Our big arctic front that was in the forecast is now headed east of the Rockies. Oh well. 

[Front Ranger]

Interesting how warm it can get in Denver.

 

DENVER, CO     MOSUNNY   63   8  11 S15G22    29.69F                 

 

Yeah, I don't mind. If it's not going to be cold/snowy, might as well be pleasant.

[Front Ranger]

Going to be quite the 24 hour change here. High reached 64 today, but will drop into the teens by tomorrow morning, with afternoon temps just in the low 20s.

[wx_statman]

NWS reporting 40" of snow fell in 48 hours in Essex, just west of the continental divide. 

[Kayla]

Sooo, I picked up 16.4" here in 12 hours today! Models completely underestimated the upslope flow and very cold air dynamics it seems once again. Some crazy 4 foot drifts out there now and it's still snowing!

 

Down to 10F now and continuing to drop. First sub zero reading by the morning looks good once things clear.

 

Very brief break tomorrow before the snow returns by tomorrow night with the Arctic front. Looks like some more impressive snowfall totals with very high snowfall ratios.

[Black Hole]

I got about 2" tonight. It was brief but fun! 

Next shot of a couple inches is on Friday-Saturday.

[Mercurial]

NWS reporting 40" of snow fell in 48 hours in Essex, just west of the continental divide. 

 

Essex is a snow magnet.  I think NWS was forecasting 36 to 50 inches for them.  Elevation is a mere 3,800 feet but they average 200 inches per year. 

 

Finished with 18" here.  Even the drier parts of the valley floors were reporting a foot or more.

[Kayla]

Only made it down to 1F this morning as a low stratus layer formed overnight after the storm. Bozeman Airport did drop to -10F though!

 

Storm total ended up at 16.6". Looks like downtown ended up with about 12". Incredibly over-performing storm! NWS was only going with 2-4" as of yesterday morning...whoops! 

 

Next storm is already knocking on the door. Expecting 10-12" of snowfall by Saturday morning with 8-10" in town. Very impressive cold air advection and snow ratios will once again be the theme with this storm. Very cold temps settle in here over the weekend.

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/2qkurt2.jpg

http://i67.tinypic.com/2ugjj80.jpg

[Mercurial]

Sooo, I picked up 16.4" here in 12 hours today! Models completely underestimated the upslope flow and very cold air dynamics it seems once again. Some crazy 4 foot drifts out there now and it's still snowing!

 

Down to 10F now and continuing to drop. First sub zero reading by the morning looks good once things clear.

 

Very brief break tomorrow before the snow returns by tomorrow night with the Arctic front. Looks like some more impressive snowfall totals with very high snowfall ratios.

 

NICE!  My experience from living in Bozeman was that the models are pretty much junk when it comes to forecasting snowfall in the southern/eastern Gallatin Valley.  Models overestimate the influence of the continental divide in that part of the state, and underestimate the influence of the Gallatins Bridgers etc.  

[Mercurial]

Deep deep winter all across Montana.  Wow

[Mercurial]

In November of 2009, Bozeman received over 20 inches of snow, almost all of which was unforecasted.  Models had us pegged at 1-3".  I remember that storm vividly -- we had light drizzle as I went to bed around midnight.  Mega snow bands must have moved through that night, because I woke up with way over a foot 8 hours later.  

 

Also, there were a bunch of huge storms in April of 2009 (iirc) and we got like 40" total that month.  

[Kayla]

NICE!  My experience from living in Bozeman was that the models are pretty much junk when it comes to forecasting snowfall in the southern/eastern Gallatin Valley.  Models overestimate the influence of the continental divide in that part of the state, and underestimate the influence of the Gallatins Bridgers etc.  

 

Yeah no doubt. The combination of very poor model forecasts and no radar coverage makes every system a surprise here it seems. Bozeman definitely has a very unique microclimate that the models never seem to be able to catch up on.

[Kayla]

In November of 2009, Bozeman received over 20 inches of snow, almost all of which was unforecasted.  Models had us pegged at 1-3".  I remember that storm vividly -- we had light drizzle as I went to bed around midnight.  Mega snow bands must have moved through that night, because I woke up with way over a foot 8 hours later.  

 

Also, there were a bunch of huge storms in April of 2009 (iirc) and we got like 40" total that month.  

 

Crazy! Cool that you were here for April 2009! That month holds the snowiest monthly record of any month of the year when 46.9" fell in Bozeman. Too bad it all came in April otherwise the area would have seen plenty of 3-4 foot snow depths I'm sure! 

[Mercurial]

Crazy! Cool that you were here for April 2009! That month holds the snowiest monthly record of any month of the year when 46.9" fell in Bozeman. Too bad it all came in April otherwise the area would have seen plenty of 3-4 foot snow depths I'm sure! 

 

Yeah, getting that sort of moisture in Dec/Jan/Feb would be even more unusual.  It was a significantly snowier than normal winter anyway, as I recall.  We got crushed with deep snow right around Christmas. 

[Mercurial]

Also, snowing hard much earlier than expected.  Great dendrite growth, significantly bigger flakes than Tuesday's system actually.  Over 1" per hour rates for the last 75 minutes, closing in on 2" of surprise snow so far.  Coming your way Kayla... 

[FroYoBro]

Only made it down to 1F this morning as a low stratus layer formed overnight after the storm. Bozeman Airport did drop to -10F though!

 

Storm total ended up at 16.6". Looks like downtown ended up with about 12". Incredibly over-performing storm! NWS was only going with 2-4" as of yesterday morning...whoops! 

 

Next storm is already knocking on the door. Expecting 10-12" of snowfall by Saturday morning with 8-10" in town. Very impressive cold air advection and snow ratios will once again be the theme with this storm. Very cold temps settle in here over the weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

Crazy! I see that you really tracked down a snowy spot to move to. Looks fun! 

[wx_statman]

Crazy! Cool that you were here for April 2009! That month holds the snowiest monthly record of any month of the year when 46.9" fell in Bozeman. Too bad it all came in April otherwise the area would have seen plenty of 3-4 foot snow depths I'm sure! 

 

That was a crazy snowstorm in MT at the end of April 2009. I remember tracking it. Great Falls set its 2-day snowfall record on the 28th-29th, with 24.2", followed by a May-record low of 12 on 5-1-2009. St. Mary got 60" from April 27-30, 2009. 

[Front Ranger]

1.5" here today. 

[BLI snowman]

1.5" here today. 

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lOL2h8F3aA

[Kayla]

Also, snowing hard much earlier than expected.  Great dendrite growth, significantly bigger flakes than Tuesday's system actually.  Over 1" per hour rates for the last 75 minutes, closing in on 2" of surprise snow so far.  Coming your way Kayla... 

 

That's awesome! How much are you up to now?? Nothing flying here yet but I like what I'm seeing/hearing up to my NW. Will be interesting to see how long the front stalls over the area with high dendrite growth! I'm thinking we should see 20-25:1 snowfall ratio through most of the event.

[Kayla]

Crazy! I see that you really tracked down a snowy spot to move to. Looks fun! 

 

Yeah, I definitely scouted the area for quite some time before finding property. We left our options open so we first found the best town with plenty of yearly snowfall (and places to work) then I did a lot of wx_statman research and studied all the finicky microclimates here.

 

So far, I couldn't be happier to see that we consistently record the highest snowfall/rainfall amounts in the "Valley". Snowier in the winter and greener in the summer! Only downside is since we are banked right up against the Gallatin Mountains we do get raging downslope winds which can eat away the snow pack rather quickly sometimes. Totally worth it to see the higher snowfall totals though!

[Front Ranger]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lOL2h8F3aA

 

And none of it melted today!

[Kayla]

Light to moderate snow began here early this morning and I have picked up 3" so far today. Moderate snowfall with 25:1 snow ratios look to continue throughout the day into tomorrow morning. So a long duration event is once again underway. Snow depths are already quite impressive here, over two feet now and rising.

 

Currently 16F with temps expected to drop into the single digits by this afternoon.

[Black Hole]

Light to moderate snow began here early this morning and I have picked up 3" so far today. Moderate snowfall with 25:1 snow ratios look to continue throughout the day into tomorrow morning. So a long duration event is once again underway. Snow depths are already quite impressive here, over two feet now and rising.

 

Currently 16F with temps expected to drop into the single digits by this afternoon.

You live in a crazy place, maybe I need to relocate

[Black Hole]

Tonight will be interesting here with a unusual pattern setting up. Warm advection WNW flow along with a very moist airmass will allow for heavy precipitation in the mountains in spite of no real storm system. This precipitation may extend into the valleys as well. Most official forecasts are in the 1-4" range, but some models are showing 8-12" of snow tonight. 

I am inclined to lean towards the lower amounts but I will keep some hope for a surprise. 

[Scott]

-13 at the house this morning (-9 downtown), the coldest of the season.  Still, it was a lot warmer than the original forecast said a few days ago.  If it doesn't get colder than this by month's end, this will be the warmest coldest reading of the month for December since we have lived here (since 2004). 

[Kayla]

You live in a crazy place, maybe I need to relocate

 

Yeah, it's been quite the active week that's for sure. Quite the extremes, especially coming from Portland!

[Kayla]

I've picked up 6" of snowfall so far today as of my last measurement 3 hours ago. The snowfall has been the definition of pixie dust, incredibly dry and light. I'm expecting the snow to continue through the night before finally ending around 10-11am tomorrow morning. Cold air really settles in then when we should see widespread teens below zero by Sunday morning.

 

Currently 10F with light to at times moderate snowfall occurring.

[Scott]

-13 at the house this morning (-9 downtown), the coldest of the season.  Still, it was a lot warmer than the original forecast said a few days ago.  If it doesn't get colder than this by month's end, this will be the warmest coldest reading of the month for December since we have lived here (since 2004). 

 

Looking back through the records, there are only two years where it didn't drop to at least -9 in December at the downtown/airport station; those years were 1986 and 1995.  

 

1999's coldest day of the entire year was only -14.  It is extremely rare when it doesn't drop into at least the -20's downtown or at the airport (at the mine above town, Craig 4SW station, it is more common since nights are much warmer there).

[Kayla]

Clouds are finally starting to break up here but very light snowfall still continues. Should be done with accumulations so my storm snowfall total ended up being 8.2" with this latest system. Cold air has really settled in now with a low of 2F this morning and currently still only 5F.

 

It's been quite the snowfall week, nearly 3 feet of snow in just the last 7 days now with more on the way Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

 

Coldest night of the season coming up tonight with lows expecting to drop to nearly 20 below zero.

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/2cgd35s.jpg

[Kayla]

High of only 8F and low of -2F so far here today. Was a beautiful sunset this evening with an Alpenglow over the Bridgers. 

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2yjwz82.jpg

[Black Hole]

About 1.5" today. It snowed off an on for a while but didn't add up much till the end.

Another chance of snow or maybe a rain/snow mix Sunday night but it looks better to the north of me with less shadowing.

[wx_statman]

Impressive -13 this morning in Kalispell. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

High of only 8F and low of -2F so far here today. Was a beautiful sunset this evening with an Alpenglow over the Bridgers. 

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2yjwz82.jpg

What is meant by Alpenglow over the Bridgers?

[Kayla]

What is meant by Alpenglow over the Bridgers?

 

Alpenglow over the Bridger Mountain Range, known as just the "Bridgers" here in town.

[Kayla]

Looks like West Yellowstone dropped down to at least -33F and Bozeman Airport down to at least -26F this morning.

 

Dropped dropped down to -9F IMBY.

[Kayla]

Another chilly day, high of 14F. Back down to 4F already but can see the cloud deck moving in out ahead of our Christmas Day storm.

 

Looking like another extended light snowfall event through Tuesday morning but should total up to be another 5-8" on my roof by Tuesday morning. Likely 4-6" in town.

[Mercurial]

That's awesome! How much are you up to now?? Nothing flying here yet but I like what I'm seeing/hearing up to my NW. Will be interesting to see how long the front stalls over the area with high dendrite growth! I'm thinking we should see 20-25:1 snowfall ratio through most of the event.

 

Ended up getting 7" from that batch... was expecting like 2-4".  Even the northern Flathead Valley has nearly 20" on the ground.  

 

NWS Missoula keeps bandying about the phrase 'atmospheric snow river' to describe our storms forecasted to come through in the Wednesday-Saturday timeframe.