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April 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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A couple models are teasing a potential snow event in the 8-9 day period.  Tonight's runs take it south of Iowa... in mid April.  The 00z Euro clobbers northern Missouri.  It probably won't happen, but it's interesting to see.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A couple models are teasing a potential snow event in the 8-9 day period.  Tonight's runs take it south of Iowa... in mid April.  The 00z Euro clobbers northern Missouri.  It probably won't happen, but it's interesting to see.

Yup, dat -NAO is going to be blossom and cause havoc with the modeling.  Nonetheless, this would be quite a snowstorm for the heartland....

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As a weather geek, I find what is being shown off the 00z GEFS quite fascinating.  I mean, I know its not the warm signal we would like to see but to get another repeat performance of the Stratospheric vortex to park itself into North America during the month of April, says something about the state of the climate.  I'm intrigued to learn more about how all of this correlates to the Sun's behavior and if indeed we are heading into a climatic shift (which I believe we are). 

 

 

BTW, 00z EPS are quite cold for the Plains/MW from day 7-14 and will prob erase any surplus in temp anomalies which have been gained through the weekend.

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Severe weather potential in Okla., Tx., La. picks up but hey, it's Spring.

Hail, tornado potential, but most will slide east

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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A little weather history for April 3rd  Today is the 60th anniversary of the biggest tornado to hit the Grand Rapids area. It was a cold spring in 1956 and on this date the temperature soared to 78 here. Then in the late afternoon a strong cold front crossed Lake Michigan and brought a large tornado that crossed the western and northern suburbs of Grand Rapids there were 18 people killed and over 300 injured.  Note I did not live in GR at that time but the storm pasted less then a half mile to my NW.  Also on this date in 1975 a big snowstorm came thru Bay City, MI (where I was living at that time) and dumped 15” of snow along with high winds and a lot of thunder and lightning.

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Yup, dat -NAO is going to be blossom and cause havoc with the modeling.  Nonetheless, this would be quite a snowstorm for the heartland....

Wow, a 20" just to my west.  Nothing would surprise me with this winter/spring.  When the Euro/King is showing something like this, it is wise to believe there is a chance of some kind of a storm (snow, rain, or a mess) in this time frame.  I have even seen long term forecasts on my phone's weather apps hinting at colder, stormier weather next week.  We'll see.

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Cold air has to go somewhere when half the arctic is on fire.

Correct, and I agree, that’s what you call displacement and happens often in years during Low solar during Spring months. I got this funny feeling next winter will have huge blocking. Just a hunch.

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Hey February was brutally cold here but the 5th warmest on record around the world... Blame it on AGW...

 

In other news the GFS delivers flakes to your backyard as well

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Uh oh, both GFS/Euro agreeing on April snow in Chicago? Great. Actually, if it happens go Big or Go home. #Break50”

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7 of the next 8 days should be safely above normal. BRRRR

Ha, who said it would be cold during the 1st week or so of April. I’ve always said to look for Real warmth around the 6th/7th. Didn’t expect to see the abrupt shift to colder thereafter. It’s post 10th when things change for a lot of us in the Plains/MW. You guys up north will prob escape the steepest cold anamolies with lack of snow cover and extensive blocking across Canada.

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Chicago's pick day of the week....Saturday...it's going to be wonderful being outside and on Sunday as well with temps well into the 60's.  Sunday will have DP's in the low 60's???  That'll smell and feel like Spring.

 

 

 

D3O98kvWAAAiVGZ.jpg

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Ha, who said it would be cold during the 1st week or so of April. I’ve always said to look for Real warmth around the 6th/7th. Didn’t expect to see the abrupt shift to colder thereafter. It’s post 10th when things change for a lot of us in the Plains/MW. You guys up north will prob escape the steepest cold anamolies with lack of snow cover and extensive blocking across Canada.

So pretty typical spring yoyo.  Just like the second half of march was typical

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Yup, dat -NAO is going to be blossom and cause havoc with the modeling.  Nonetheless, this would be quite a snowstorm for the heartland....

 

 

Noooooo keep that away from me please. GROSS. I want spring temps :( screw any sort of winter, even if it's a blizzard, so over it!

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Wow.  Last night's euro clobbered northern Missouri with next week's snowstorm.  Today's 12z run shifts north to Iowa and doubles down.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019040312_228_5660_323.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Too my map above-

 

Dead of winter something like this from the GFS would get mentioned in AFD's-- only to be shot down by the nil EURO

And now? likely nothing in AFD's because it's Spring- because the EURO is ???   -- well now it's Spring-  the Euro has to be wrong because the same climate that says it's can't happen in the winter - says it can't happen in the Spring.  MN is going to get this.....

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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April snow storms are rare here, but they have happened before. Cedar Rapids had 14.5 inches of snow on April 8-10, 1973. I wasn’t born yet, but this was a very powerful storm.

 

Photo of snow is from Blairs ferry road and council street in Cedar Rapids.CAF584CE-9051-415C-B5CA-D1D6747EC563.jpeg2FA21103-59C5-4693-A3D5-E22F990048A7.jpeg

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We need 4" here to set the record so yeah I'll go with that. Though the fact that this is 7 days out combined with the fact that we have April climo to deal with doesn't exactly give me the greatest feeling about this.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Almost the same time frame as the 30" Blizzard last year in Wisco

We're talking about areas of Iowa that have gotten over 20" in one storm maybe once or twice getting 3' from one storm. And in April at that. Yeah, Euro is just off its rocker. And I think as we see the storm weaken we'll also see it move more reasonably North too.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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