April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

The entire west coast has been quiet for years. There hasn't even been a major earthquake in California. I believe the last decent moderate quake that was newsworthy was in 2007 in the Bay Area when I was living down there... 5.6 centred near where I was living at the time. A pretty good shake that tossed some things around in my apartment but no damage.

it could be tomorrow or 20 or 30 years but something’s bound to happen. I have a feeling something will probably happen in the next 10 years but there’s no way of knowing.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Tim-ism:

 

Not enough to show the forest above the ridiculously large deck. Must show the lawn the size of wrigley field with said deck overlooking. Old trailer trash compensation? Me thinks maybe so.

[MossMan]

Nice day for some egg hunting!

[antipex]

Nice day for some egg hunting!

 

I don't think I've ever seen the actual landscaping at your place! How long was it covered in snow?

[TT-SEA]

Tim-ism:

 

Not enough to show the forest above the ridiculously large deck. Must show the lawn the size of wrigley field with said deck overlooking. Old trailer trash compensation? Me thinks maybe so.

I was trailer trash? Not quite that bad.

[Phil]

Here is my view this beautiful Easter morning.

 

1v6ik6.jpg

No wonder you’re broke.

 

Get in shape, shave, and maybe you won’t have to pay.

[Phil]

I find it incredible how some of the big forest fires can manage to burn through the winter in BC and then re-emerge from under the snow in the spring. Crews were working on 4 holdover fires from the big Alkali lake fire in northern BC last summer.

That can’t be accurate? They’d smother and you’d also have snowmelt saturating the wood.

[Phil]

Let’s just get a big Niño out of the way rather than kicking the can down the for road another year of +ENSO conditions.

I admit I’m starting to worry this might happen..the inception of full blown +QBO timed to the KW return isn’t niño friendly in the short term. Would push the big niño back by a year.

 

The low pass signal is not establishing in the upper levels right now and until it does the outcome is murky.

[Phil]

Normally I might agree, but I feel we are primed for an amazing winter next time around if we avoid it. It could be a while before things align so nicely again. We just had a major Nino not that long ago and now weak warm ENSO for the past year. We're really not all that due for a big multi year Nino.

Huh? Six out of the last 8 years have been -ENSO.

 

We just had a multiyear niña in 2016/17 - 2017/18, following -ENSO from 2010/11 to 2013/14. The IPWP is still extended and will not retract until a niño can successfully drain/redistribute the thermal/mass load upon return.

[Phil]

Tim-ism:

 

Not enough to show the forest above the ridiculously large deck. Must show the lawn the size of wrigley field with said deck overlooking. Old trailer trash compensation? Me thinks maybe so.

You’re insufferable and obnoxious.

[Requiem]

You’re insufferable and obnoxious.

Dome Buster’s insufferable!? That’s news to me. Must be those anti-patriot lies

[Omegaraptor]

Wow, the days are sure long now. This wasn't shown on any of the models!

[GHweatherChris]

Wow, the days are sure long now. This wasn't shown on any of the models!

It just popped up on them, I was shocked!!

[ShawniganLake]

That can’t be accurate? They’d smother and you’d also have snowmelt saturating the wood.

Nope, happens pretty frequently when a fire burns deep underground

 

http://bcfireinfo.for.gov.bc.ca/hprScripts/wildfirenews/DisplayArticle.asp?ID=3100

[MossMan]

I don't think I've ever seen the actual landscaping at your place! How long was it covered in snow?

41 straight days!!

[Phil]

Nope happens pretty frequently when a fire burns deep underground

I suppose if it’s porous enough for an open O^2 supply, then sublimation of snowcover could aid in that process via dissociation? I guess?

 

Seems quite radical. Fuel moisture would have to increase substantially either way. Not sure what to think.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Wow, the days are sure long now. This wasn't shown on any of the models!

 

Long days and cold weather seasonal lag = waste of daylight

[MossMan]

Seems like a distant memory now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day. Cool evening. 

[Front Ranger]

The entire west coast has been quiet for years. There hasn't even been a major earthquake in California. I believe the last decent moderate quake that was newsworthy was in 2007 in the Bay Area when I was living down there... 5.6 centred near where I was living at the time. A pretty good shake that tossed some things around in my apartment but no damage.

 

There was a decent quake in CA around Christmas 2016. I remember it woke me up, as I was staying at my sister's house in Fresno that week.

[ShawniganLake]

I suppose if it’s porous enough for an open O^2 supply, then sublimation of snowcover could aid in that process via dissociation? I guess?

 

Seems quite radical. Fuel moisture would have to increase substantially either way. Not sure what to think.

I think the limited oxygen supply is part of what makes this possible. The fires smoulder and burn the fuel supply slowly. If the oxygen was abundant they might burn thru that fuel supply more quickly and possibly burn themselves out. Many of The big fires in BC and the Fort Mac fire a few years ago have had flare ups the following spring and summer. In some cases more than 1 year after they started.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the limited oxygen supply is part of what makes this possible. The fires smoulder and burn the fuel supply slowly. If the oxygen was abundant they might burn thru that fuel supply more quickly and possibly burn themselves out. Many of The big fires in BC and the Fort Mac fire a few years ago have had flare ups the following spring and summer. In some cases more than 1 year after they started.

 

Definitely more common than people realize. It happened last spring where the Eagle Creek burn was in the Gorge. 

[Front Ranger]

[ShawniganLake]

That’s a pretty sexy Aleutian/ Alaska ridge on the GFS. This place would be getting pretty busy if it was winter.

[Phil]

I think the limited oxygen supply is part of what makes this possible. The fires smoulder and burn the fuel supply slowly. If the oxygen was abundant they might burn thru that fuel supply more quickly and possibly burn themselves out. Many of The big fires in BC and the Fort Mac fire a few years ago have had flare ups the following spring and summer. In some cases more than 1 year after they started.

They probably reduce to smoldering embers with no flames at all. Doing some quick projections, the oxygen requirements would almost certainly be too high otherwise (if wood is what’s being burned).

[ShawniganLake]

They probably reduce to smoldering embers with no flames at all. Doing some quick projections, the oxygen requirements would almost certainly be too high otherwise (if wood is what’s being burned).

You’re over thinking this. “Holdover fires”.

[Omegaraptor]

That’s a pretty sexy Aleutian/ Alaska ridge on the GFS. This place would be getting pretty busy if it was winter.

 

A cold front of this intensity in winter (double digit negative temperature anomalies for my area) would easily be snowy for the lowlands, no question about it. The highs on the 00z aren't in record territory, but they're close.

 

However the 00z also suggests that this cold front is going to be temporary and will only last a few days. I hope so.

[Phil]

You’re over thinking this. “Holdover fires”.

There are not flames burning underneath the snowpack (if that’s what you’re suggesting).

[ShawniganLake]

Simplified verbiage to aid public understanding. There are not flames burning underground, underneath the snowpack.

There are no flames underground. Are there ever flames Underground?

[Phil]

[Jesse]

The persistence of the SE-ridge in the modeling is beginning to worry me. So far the progression is lining up well with the anti-Phil summer analogs.

 

Don't worry, the west is due for a hot summer so you should be fine.

[Phil]

The 12z EPS depicts another jet extension starting later in week 2, which would morph warmer but inevitably wetter as well. A very different pattern this year, so far.

 

[Phil]

Maybe we’re getting this SE-ridge stuff out of the way early so we can avoid it during the dog days? Haha.

[Phil]

That said, most guidance does finally get forcing into a more Pacific based wave-1 mode by May 5th, so at that point we’ll see what happens re: next cycle of WWBs, extended jet, middle latitude wavetrains. Could be quite revealing.

 

If we’re still stuck with Aleutian High/SE-Ridge and continued western troughing by the middle of May, in spite of the above snd seasonal changes, safe to say there’s a good chance that’s the background state this summer.

[Omegaraptor]

That said, most guidance does finally get forcing into a more Pacific based wave-1 mode by May 5th, so at that point we’ll see what happens re: next cycle of WWBs, extended jet, middle latitude wavetrains. Could be quite revealing.

If we’re still stuck with Aleutian High/SE-Ridge and continued western troughing by the middle of May, in spite of the above snd seasonal changes, safe to say there’s a good chance that’s the background state this summer.

So what does this mean for PNW weather? Is the 1997 analog still alive?

[Phil]

So what does this mean for PNW weather? Is the 1997 analog still alive?

Possibly. We’ll know within 4 weeks.

[Jesse]

A lot more spread on the 00z GFS ensembles. Almost as many ridgy members as troughy in the 5-10 day period.

 

[Omegaraptor]

00z ECMWF is being released but I have to go to bed. Tell me how it goes.

[TT-SEA]

00z ECMWF is being released but I have to go to bed. Tell me how it goes.

 

I was an awesome release party.    Very exciting.

 

It came out in 24-hour increments to add to the suspense.    You should have stayed up.   

[Jesse]

Cool and clear this morning with a nice sunrise. 40.