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April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


Omegaraptor

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The majority of the US is supposed to be wetter except the northwest warmer and drier. It usually ends up the opposite so I personally don’t think it is going to be a scorcher and drier than normal. I am thinking more troughs with thunderstorm chances and not as much smoke as the past summers.

That would be nice.

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The 12z Euro hits us a little more directly with the trough on Saturday than the GFS.

 

It seems like one of the primary things giving the models so many fits with the upcoming pattern is the phasing of that southern cutoff low over California into the northern jet. Models that brought them together right over our region ended up digging a deeper western trough. More recent runs that keep it as a ULL for longer tend to usher everything east rather quickly.

 

 

12Z ECMWF shows total rain of 0.00 for the Portland area over the weekend. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This could be the year SEA ends a calendar year or water year below average! It is going to be close though as SEA is still within a couple inches of normal. Heading into the drier seasons until October so all it would take is a good AR event or thunderstorm event and SEA would be above normal. The recent AR event a couple weeks ago was supposed to hit Seattle but ended up going down to Oregon. Supposed to be dry this summer so probably a good chance of making at least the water year.

 

2018 was more than 3" below SEA's long term mean. About 2" below 1981-2010 normals.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Thank you for refraining from namecalling here.

 

 

Yeah... that is your speciality on PM.      That is fact and I can post screen shots if you like.

 

You let loose like Mussolini from the balcony.     Some pent up anger there.     :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tim’s pied piper song of misinformation seems to be working it’s way to some of our new members.

 

 

Yeah... WRCC misinformation campaign.    I hacked into their system to propagate lies about actual monthly rainfall totals in this area.    :rolleyes:    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... that is your speciality on PM. That is fact and I can post screen shots if you like.

 

You let loose like Mussolini from the balcony. Some pent up anger there. :lol:

Go ahead. Post a screenshot of anything since early last fall. It’s impossible since I haven’t sent you a PM for months. :lol: And I have no plans to. Gives too much room for misrepresentation since it becomes my word versus yours.

 

Although you are still trying to use it as a tool which I am surprised at. I honestly had a higher opinion of you.

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Go ahead. Post a screenshot of anything since early last fall. It’s impossible since I haven’t sent you a PM for months. :lol: And I have no plans to. Gives too much room for misrepresentation, although you are still trying to use it as a tool which I am surprised at. I honestly had a higher opinion of you.

 

You are constantly attacking.   Even when the discussion is purely factual with no emotion and with actual station data.

 

Your method of attacking with personal insults used to be through PM.   And it was nasty.    I eventually told you to stop.

 

And many other members reported that you did the same thing with them.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You are constantly attacking. Even when the discussion is purely factual with no emotion and with actual station data.

 

Your method of attacking with personal insults used to be through PM. And it was nasty. I eventually told you to stop.

 

And many other members reported that you did the same thing with them.

The overwhelming majority of my posts have been weather related in the recent past. I could dig way back to when you were a lot more ornery on here too.

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The overwhelming majority of my posts have been weather related in the recent past. I could dig way back to when you were a lot more ornery on here too.

You are actually getting worse though. You don't have your PM venting option.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You are actually getting worse though. You don't have your PM venting option.

Yeah no.

 

And I still PM plenty of people here. I just stopped with the people who use it as a tool to create strawmen against me when convenient.

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Apparently my idea of attacking someone differs from most of you.

 

All I see alot of passive aggressive complaining.

 

 

I really like looking at historical data... and I am not complaining at all.        

 

Quite the opposite... I am feeling positive and upbeat.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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But OLM might end up below normal... with the pattern favoring the central and north Sound and adjacent foothills in terms of anomalies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Cedar Lake station is well below normal for the year... which makes sense given the record cold pattern we had.     

 

 

 

Indeed.

 

8 out of the last 12 months have been drier than normal at the Cedar Lake station as well. 

 

 

But this wet April was almost inevitable around here after being well below normal for January - March.

 

 

All part of my misinformation campaign.    ^_^

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It could be easily manipulated though... so it would just result in more endless BS based on my experience with several people here. Phil trolls me over actual WRCC stations. :lol:

I don’t think you’d manipulate your numbers. I’d be able to tell and you could post the calibration offset values yourself to debunk any trolling.

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The fact that you're so reluctant to do it seems a bit fishy to me at this point. Seems like you're using the trolling thing as an excuse. Why're you so easy to just give in to a troll?

Just do it please so we can know more about that microclimate. Nobody(even phil) thinks you're lying.

Tim whenever he’s confronted on this issue. #fishy

 

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Same pleasant temp inside as outside.  A screen door, Oregon version of Hawai'i.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Tim whenever he’s confronted on this issue. #fishy

 

 

 

 

Its not fishy... its just lack of interest.    I already know my annual rainfall is somewhere in the middle between the valley station and the station farther up into the foothills.    Its not really a mystery to me.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Its not fishy... its just lack of interest. I already know my annual rainfall is somewhere in the middle between the valley station and the station farther up into the foothills. Its not really a mystery to me.

Your post count on the issue does not imply a lack of interest. In fact you made the opposite argument just a few hours ago.

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Your post count on the issue does not imply a lack of interest. In fact you made the opposite argument just a few hours ago.

 

 

I am fine using the official stations around me.    I already know both ends of the spectrum here.

 

And there is no way to re-create 120 years worth of data for my new station.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sounds like you’re enjoying the hell out of it lately. What are we at 25-30 posts about rain this morning alone?

 

#totallyfine

 

#notameltdown

My humidity rants have never risen to this level.

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I think he needs to take one of his forum breaks...seems like he is the one melting down way too often lately. If it’s not a Jesse approved opinion it is not a valid opinion.

Nah, the rainer complainers are clearly the problem. The ratio between posts b*tching about rain versus those complaining about the complaining is like 10-3.

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Its not fishy... its just lack of interest. I already know my annual rainfall is somewhere in the middle between the valley station and the station farther up into the foothills. Its not really a mystery to me.

Lack of interest? Come on my brother, I bet you literally have the world record for most online comments about rainfall.

 

If your wife won’t let you purchase a station and you don’t want to acknowledge the fact you’re a beta-c*** that’s one thing, but your excuses ring hollow. ;)

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Lack of interest? Come on my brother, I bet you literally have the world record for most online comments about rainfall.

 

If your wife won’t let you purchase a station and you don’t want to acknowledge the fact you’re a beta-c*** that’s one thing, but come on. ;)

 

 

I am going to keep posting about temp and precip and cloud/sun stats... no matter what is happening.    Its the basic components of weather and this is a weather forum.  

 

I know this climate intimately... not much surprises me.    I know what to expect and we are happy here.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nah, the rainer complainers are clearly the problem. The ratio between posts b*tching about rain versus those complaining about the complaining is like 10-3.

Eh, it's probably close to 50/50. For every complaining post, there tends to be an equal and opposite response.

 

That's how these lively discussions maintain their stamina!

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This isn't accurate.

 

I'm sure Phil's 10 to 3 number is based on deep, objective analysis. 

 

It's a constant battle back and forth between the two opinion sides, so it sure feels more like 50/50. Unless of course you're counting every post Tim makes as a complaining post...which is not accurate.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I'm sure Phil's 10 to 3 number is based on deep, objective analysis.

 

It's a constant battle back and forth between the two opinion sides, so it sure feels more like 50/50. Unless of course you're counting every post Tim makes as a complaining post...which is not accurate.

No just your numbers are. To be fair 10 to 3 was an exaggeration as well. Probably more like 2:1.

 

Anyway, this all comes off like an attempt to appear above the fray considering how often you contribute to the issue.

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I'm sure Phil's 10 to 3 number is based on deep, objective analysis. 

 

It's a constant battle back and forth between the two opinion sides, so it sure feels more like 50/50. Unless of course you're counting every post Tim makes as a complaining post...which is not accurate.

 

He does.

 

I post all the time... and also post many times about sunny/dry weather when that is what is actually happening.

 

But during the rainy periods... any post about rain stats is seen as complaining by Jesse and Phil.    That is the weather that is happening and I post about the current weather.  The reality is that I know exactly what to expect here... and the rainy periods are half the equation and I am just as interested in those stats compared to normal for this area.

 

And the fact is that it has been more anomalously wet in the central and northern Cascades and adjacent foothills for quite some time.   

 

9 out of the last 10 years have been above normal at most of the foothill stations from Rattlesnake Ridge northward to the Canadian border.  A pattern that favors rain in that area has been more persistent than usual this decade.    The data is pretty clear and its not just one station.   That is interesting to me.

 

Its the wettest decade on record for most of those stations.    But its totally different in other places.    It has also been the warmest decade on record for most of those stations... and maybe that is related to the increase rainfall. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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