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4/10 - 4/12 Plains/Upper Midwest Powerhouse Blizzard


Tom

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If we hit 70 on Monday and have a foot or more of snow otg by Thursday evening I’m gonna lose it. It took a lot of effort to make sure I didn’t have flooding issues with 20” of snowmelt. I don’t want to have to do it all over again.

 

I did flooded basement twice last year - Feb & May. I can relate. good luck up there SPS!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z GFS a giant leap north, rain up to Duluth and Marquette.  Nice consistency, GFS.  The FV3 is also north, although not so drastically.  

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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YEP -GFS way north. Would really prolong ice out on lakes- as the snow would insulate the ice from insolation and prevent the ice from breaking up. Got a canoe trip to USA/CAN border here in 5 weeks and this storm would actually help the fishing - if this is the last one-. and the GFS is right. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Big shift NW on the 00z Euro/EPS...FWIW, the EPS has been steadfast on the northerly track for days and it looks like it may have had the right idea all along.

 

For this winter, I'd bet on that result vs what it flashed 12 hrs before. Twas a classic punt fake for those of us left out of the main action this #winter.  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The models are swinging wildly from run to run.

Looking like anywhere from a cutter up through central neb. to a slider over KC. Yah that has some major differences in terms of types of precip on it. Right now if you would say; the Euro is the outlier if you could believe it. Of course things will continue to change but your looking at a major storm with 978-990 mb pressure at its center going off long range guidance. That's something we should see in March or November in terms of snow, not flipping April! 

 

EDIT: 

 

OAX not buying the Euro but wow if that panned out it would be another historic event to unfold for us in Nebraska. 

 

The GFS...and particularly the ECM...are still indicating sufficient

cold air advection will move in promote snow accumulations over the

CWA. As of now, the ECM is the most bullish with amounts. Still not

ready to follow along with this scenario, thus will maintain mention

of possible rain/snow mix along/north of I-80 corridor on Thursday

night.

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@central neb. and @clintbeed; this disco got me interested wow! Also interesting hearing them talk about previous weather patterns; you can call me crazy but that sounds a lot like the LRC to me. 

 

Pattern: a major pattern change is in the offing. The global mdls
and ensemble means conts to advertise a longwave trof developing
over the Wrn USA. The look over the E Pac will be similar to what
occurred in Feb and early Mar...with a high-over-low config
between AK and HI. That means odds will favor cooler than normal
temps...with a couple days of much colder than normal. Some snow
will be possible as well.

 
 
 
1) There will probably be no shwr/tstm activity in the warm
sector. This system will advect a significant cap/EML from the
Desert SW. All of the precip with this system (at least while it`s
over the Plns) will be on the cold side of the warm and cold
fronts.

2) Light rain (and more likely drzl) will struggle to form over
S-cntrl NEB Wed while a raging blzd will be on-going from the
Sandhills back into the NEB panhandle. This area of deformation
hvy snow would then move into the CWA Wed night into Thu...with
blzd conds probable. This scenario would result in some parts of
the CWA measuring svrl inches of snow with significant drifting
and severe blowing snow.

3) Sct shwrs/tstms develop Wed eve with steady rain/snow moving
in from Wrn NEB and NW KS Wed night into Thu. Most likely any
rain would change to snow. Can`t rule out just snow moving in.
This too could result in accumulating snow.

These are preliminary thoughts and they could be significantly
altered. There are probably other scenarios not mentioned.
 
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@central neb. and @clintbeed; this disco got me interested wow! Also interesting hearing them talk about previous weather patterns; you can call me crazy but that sounds a lot like the LRC to me.

 

Pattern: a major pattern change is in the offing. The global mdls

and ensemble means conts to advertise a longwave trof developing

over the Wrn USA. The look over the E Pac will be similar to what

occurred in Feb and early Mar...with a high-over-low config

between AK and HI. That means odds will favor cooler than normal

temps...with a couple days of much colder than normal. Some snow

will be possible as well.

 

 

 

1) There will probably be no shwr/tstm activity in the warm

sector. This system will advect a significant cap/EML from the

Desert SW. All of the precip with this system (at least while it`s

over the Plns) will be on the cold side of the warm and cold

fronts.

 

2) Light rain (and more likely drzl) will struggle to form over

S-cntrl NEB Wed while a raging blzd will be on-going from the

Sandhills back into the NEB panhandle. This area of deformation

hvy snow would then move into the CWA Wed night into Thu...with

blzd conds probable. This scenario would result in some parts of

the CWA measuring svrl inches of snow with significant drifting

and severe blowing snow.

 

3) Sct shwrs/tstms develop Wed eve with steady rain/snow moving

in from Wrn NEB and NW KS Wed night into Thu. Most likely any

rain would change to snow. Can`t rule out just snow moving in.

This too could result in accumulating snow.

 

These are preliminary thoughts and they could be significantly

altered. There are probably other scenarios not mentioned.

 

 

Whoa. We’re at a wedding reception in Hastings so haven’t been keeping up to closely today. This looks to have major impacts to the region potentially.

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Blocking becoming better ingested among the models and there seems to be some consistency that the track should stay far enough south to slam most of NE into MN with a vicious Blizzard. Temps were it snows are being shown to be in the mid/upper 20's! Quite a storm being advertised on the 00z Euro. What a season this region has witnessed. How many Blizzards has this been so far this year??? 4 or 5?? I lost count...tack on another one by next week.

 

Per the 00z Euro, most of NE/SE SD/MN and into WI experience max wind gusts of 45-70 mph! The max winds are near the epicenter of snow across SW MN.

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One of the more unique features with this system that will likely produce a lot of snow NW of the SLP is the slow pivot across NE/IA.  Eventually, the low occludes and migrates eastward.  Some places may see 24-36 hours of constant snowfall but trying to iron those specific details out this far out isn't important.  Nonetheless, just your typical April snow as we see back-to-back Aprils producing monster winter storms.  #sarc

 

00z EPS took another tick S/SE which may come in exceptionally close to some members across E NE/IA and into WI.  @St Paul and MN peeps, gas up your snow blowers and prep your cameras for some footage of this storm.  This looks like it will be a historic system for some.

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Interestingly, the 00z Ukie came in colder and has the freezing line all the way down to the IL/WI border and looks like mostly SN for all of WI and N IA on north.  E NE into S IA stay in the warm sector this run.

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I want to give NWS Hastings a shout out for a tremendously written disco this morning. Very informative.

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)

Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

 

Significant spring storm system remains on track to impact

Central Plains mid to late week.

 

Models are in good agreement showing a shortwave trough entering

the Pac NW on Tue, then digging the energy to near or just N of

the Four Corners by 12Z Wed. This will induce lee side

cyclogenesis with a sub 995mb low pressure center likely over

NE/KS/CO border region 12Z Wed. Models are coming into better

agreement in how they evolve/track this system Wed into Thu, thus

forecast confidence is incr. EC remains most consistent in timing

and track, though a slight southward shift has been noted. GFS

(and its ensemble, GEFS) are much further S and slower compared to

24 hrs ago. In fact, the 00Z GEFS H5 and sfc low tracks are quite

similar to the 00Z EC through 00Z Fri.

 

Model consensus is to deepen the trough over the C. Rockies on

Wed, with the sfc low taking a bit of a SE dip over KS, then

turning NE Wed night as mid-level heights continue to fall and

system becomes negatively tilted. By 12Z Thu, EC, GFS, and GEFS

mean all place the H5 low along KS/NE border in our CWA, with sfc

low in between LNK and TOP with min pressure sub-990mb. From

there, models begin to diverge in how quickly the system ejects

NE, with EC slower than GFS/GEFS. I continue to prefer the

slower/stronger and more consistent EC given propensity for

models to eject systems too quickly, esp. this time of yr.

 

Now...in terms of impacts for local CWA:

With the consensus track coming into better agreement, overall,

and further S compared to 24 hrs ago, confidence in incr that at

least a portion of the CWA will see impactful snow and wind from

this system. As previous forecaster mentioned, it appears the

system will eject a stout EML NE atop the warm sector and sfc

moisture is slow to return, so sfc based svr tstms are unlikely.

However, maintained the thunder mention in the forecast for Wed

there still appears to be elevated instability associated with an

E-W baroclinic zone near KS/NE border. Plus, this is a very

dynamic system. Will need to watch for a few elevated hailers if

conditions come together just right.

 

Likely the more impactful side of this system will be the heavy

snow and strong winds on the NW side. Still too soon to determine

a more specific range of snow amounts, but potential and

confidence is incr for at least light to moderate amounts for at

least the NW half of the CWA. Model derived snow amounts are

likely too high given time of year and melting, as well as

compaction due to wet nature of snow and strong winds.

Nonetheless, any snow this time of year is fairly significant, and

when combined with the strong winds, there could be significant

travel implications due to blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

Speaking of the winds, the EC continues to indicate H85 winds of

55-60kt which could easily result in sfc wind gusts of 50-60mph.

The combination of snow and strong winds now looks squarely

centered on the Thu AM commute. Impacts likely continue well into

Thu, esp. if slower EC solution verifies, with continued bands of

wrap-around/deformation snow possible most of the day.

 

Of note, forecast currently calls for change back to rain or

rain/snow mix Thu aftn. However, this is due to the forecast blend

ingesting some warmer/weaker/faster solutions than what the EC

would indicate, and overall the official forecast has and likely

will continue to trend colder on Thu. At any rate, Thu is not

looking like a very good day as could easily envision some

significant travel impacts somewhere nearby, if not within at

least portions of local area. Folks with travel interests need to

keep a close eye on the forecast for Wed into Thu!

 

Well below normal temps likely cont thru at least Fri as going

forecast of low 40s to low 50s is likely too warm, esp. if any

areas see snow. Am a little more confident in decent temp recovery

on Sat (compared to Fri) given rising heights and better model

agreement of taking the next system across the S. Plains.

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I already shifted to summer mode, went out on the stand up jet ski (water is cold!) yesterday and finished it off with ice cream from the local ice cream place. Kind of want this to go away, that lake needs to warm up. It's not like I can do anything fun with this snow, unless by some miracle we get enough to snowmobile and the trail markers haven't been removed. How messed up that would be to go jet skiing and then a few days later go snowmobiling? My spring and summer sports are crossing, I think I have problems.

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00z GEFS...

 

Uggh. Even includes SMI in on the misery. Ofc, now that I'm done with winter mode/mood.. :rolleyes:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I already shifted to summer mode, went out on the stand up jet ski (water is cold!) yesterday and finished it off with ice cream from the local ice cream place. Kind of want this to go away, that lake needs to warm up. It's not like I can do anything fun with this snow, unless by some miracle we get enough to snowmobile and the trail markers haven't been removed. How messed up that would be to go jet skiing and then a few days later go snowmobiling? My spring and summer sports are crossing, I think I have problems.

 

Back in April of '91 in my 1st spring in NMI, I rode my (peddle) 2-wheeler on Saturday in my shorts with 85F and sunshine. By Tuesday evening after a storm which clipped us on the backside I was able to ride my snowmobile around my place and did so just for the noteworthiness of the events! Kraziest wx stuff can happen at times. You might be in line to make a similar memory!  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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