Anti Marine Layer Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Time for the summer forecast contest, as we hope to see summer arrive some time this year in what's been the coolest and wettest May in decades for California and pretty much all of the Southwest Predict the monthly anomalies for June, July, and August, at these locations: You've got until Monday, June 3 to make your guesses SEA (Seattle, WA)OLM (Olympia, WA)PDX (Portland, OR)CQT (Downtown LA)DEN (Denver, CO)DCA (Washington D.C.) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 If you use the following format it will be easier to calculate the winner. Each location has 3 numbers separated by commas. Also a comma between location name and the first prediction (June) Location, JUN, JUL, AUGSEA, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0OLM, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0PDX, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0CQT, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0DEN, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0DCA, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Alright, I’m in. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 Here are my predictions (Last edited June 2) Location, JUN, JUL, AUGSEA, +2.0, +1.5, +1.3OLM, +1.6, +1.1, +1.0PDX, +1.5, +1.6, +1.8CQT, -1.0, +0.3 ,+0.5DEN, -1.5, +0.8, +1.1DCA, +3.2, +2.6, +2.2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 27, 2019 Report Share Posted May 27, 2019 IIRC, I screwed up CQT so magnificently last year that it cancelled out my win at DCA. So I just downloaded the historical monthly data from there, and am going to compare it to the 500mb reanalysis before I make a prediction this time. Haha. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 29, 2019 Report Share Posted May 29, 2019 Will have a guess by tonight or tomorrow. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 31, 2019 Report Share Posted May 31, 2019 Time for the summer forecast contest, as we hope to see summer arrive some time this year in what's been the coolest and wettest May in decades for California and pretty much all of the Southwest Predict the monthly anomalies for June, July, and August, at these locations: You've got until Monday, June 3 to make your guesses SEA (Seattle, WA)OLM (Olympia, WA)PDX (Portland, OR)CQT (Downtown LA)DEN (Denver, CO)DCA (Washington D.C.)Thanks Mr Marine Layer for making the summer forecast contest thread. I'll be playing again this year. I pretty much know what I'm going to put down for the PNW locations but will need to research a bit for the other ones especially DCA. I did horrible last summer for that particular location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2019 Report Share Posted June 1, 2019 Thanks Mr Marine Layer for making the summer forecast contest thread. I'll be playing again this year. I pretty much know what I'm going to put down for the PNW locations but will need to research a bit for the other ones especially DCA. I did horrible last summer for that particular location.Add an extra degree onto your guess for DCA and you should be fine, lol. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2019 Report Share Posted June 1, 2019 Add an extra degree onto your guess for DCA and you should be fine, lol.How is his SEA forecast? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2019 Report Share Posted June 1, 2019 SEA: +1, +1.5, +2 OLM: 0.0, +0.5, +1 PDX: +0.5, +1, +1.5 CQT: -1, 0.5, 0.5 DEN: -1, -1, 0 DCA: +2, +1, +3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2019 Report Share Posted June 1, 2019 How is his SEA forecast?You tell me? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2019 Report Share Posted June 1, 2019 You tell me? No idea actually... but it does not feel like a cool summer is ahead. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2019 Report Share Posted June 1, 2019 No idea actually... but it does not feel like a cool summer is ahead.Yeah, a cool summer ain’t in the cards this year (sadly). Though at least it won’t be a scorcher like the last several summers..more zonal flow. And if the niño is delayed by a year, then next summer probably won’t be cool either, given we’ll have descending easterly shear by then (warm season-aleutian low conduit). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 1, 2019 Report Share Posted June 1, 2019 Yeah, a cool summer ain’t in the cards this year (sadly). Though at least it won’t be a scorcher like the last several summers..more zonal flow. And if the niño is delayed by a year, then next summer probably won’t be cool either, given we’ll have descending easterly shear by then (warm season-aleutian low conduit).What will at that point be almost a decade with no cool summers seems reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2019 Remember, you can change your predictions up to the end of June 3 (Pacific Time) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted June 1, 2019 Report Share Posted June 1, 2019 Yeah, a cool summer ain’t in the cards this year (sadly). Though at least it won’t be a scorcher like the last several summers..more zonal flow.And if the niño is delayed by a year, then next summer probably won’t be cool either, given we’ll have descending easterly shear by then (warm season-aleutian low conduit). that would be interesting if the El nino ends up being delayed would also say that this is a long dip into an solar min. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2019 Report Share Posted June 1, 2019 What will at that point be almost a decade with no cool summers seems reasonable.Weak solar forcing has its benefits and its drawbacks as it relates to the decadal cycle of the equatorial axis of the Indo-West-Pacific Warm Pool, which is the primary regulator of your summer climate. One of those drawbacks is that it slows the cycle and dampens the amplitude, which, although it drains the warm pool and slows Indonesian throughflow, it also prolongs the phase of eastward extension (which is the phase it’s in now). That extended phase is waning, but we’ll need one more El Niño to complete the westward retraction. I was originally thinking that El Niño would occur in 2019/20, but (pending the culminating amplitude of the ongoing upwelling OKW upon completion) it might be delayed a year, to 2020/21, with the multi-year initiating during the summer of 2021. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 1, 2019 Report Share Posted June 1, 2019 Warm ups and cool downs upcoming down the road. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Weak solar forcing has its benefits and its drawbacks as it relates to the decadal cycle of the equatorial axis of the Indo-West-Pacific Warm Pool, which is the primary regulator of your summer climate. One of those drawbacks is that it slows the cycle and dampens the amplitude, which, although it drains the warm pool and slows Indonesian throughflow, it also prolongs the phase of eastward extension (which is the phase it’s in now). That extended phase is waning, but we’ll need one more El Niño to complete the westward retraction. I was originally thinking that El Niño would occur in 2019/20, but (pending the culminating amplitude of the ongoing upwelling OKW upon completion) it might be delayed a year, to 2020/21, with the multi-year initiating during the summer of 2021.Can’t find many decade long stretches of warm summers during past solar mins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Can’t find many decade long stretches of warm summers during past solar mins.We haven’t seen the sun this weak since the tail end of the LIA. Not sure there’s a viable comparison to be made there. You’d probably have to go back to the inception of the sporer minimum, which bookended the MWP. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 SEA: +3, +2, +2.5 OLM: +1.5, +1.0, +1.5 PDX: +2.5, +1.5, +2.5 CQT: 0, +1, +2 DEN: -1, -0.5, +0.5 DCA: +2, +1.5. +2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Here are my predictions (Last edited May 31) Location, JUN, JUL, AUGSEA, +2.0, +1.5, +1.3OLM, +1.8, +1.3, +1.5PDX, +1.5, +1.6, +1.8CQT, -1.3, +0.3 ,+0.5DEN, -1.0, +0.8, +1.1DCA, +3.2, +2.6, +2.2A hint for you. There is almost no chance OLM ever has a warmer anomaly than SEA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 SEA: +3, +2, +2.5 OLM: +1.5, +1.0, +1.5 PDX: +2.5, +1.5, +2.5 CQT: +1, +1, +2 DEN: -1, -0.5, +0.5 DCA: +2, +1.5. +2Anouther favourable summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Anouther favourable summer.Hopefully a little wetter than some of the recent ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Location, JUN, JUL, AUG SEA, +2.4, +2.1, +3.1 OLM, +2.8, +2.3, +2.9 PDX, +2.1, +2.5, +2.7 CQT, +1.3, +1.5 ,+1.8 DEN, +.6, +1.8, +1.5 DCA, +2.2, +2.6, +2.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 SEA: +2.3, +.6, +1.2 OLM: +1.1, -.8, +.3 PDX: +1.9, +.4, +1.4 CQT: +.7, +.5, +1.9 DEN: -2.0, -.5, +2.3 DCA: +2.8, +3.4, +2.2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 PDX: 1,2,3. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 Location, JUN, JUL, AUG SEA, +2.4, +2.1, +3.1 OLM, +2.8, +2.3, +2.9 PDX, +2.1, +2.5, +2.7 CQT, +1.3, +1.5 ,+1.8 DEN, +.6, +1.8, +1.5 DCA, +2.2, +2.6, +2.5 Not sure if it will end up a warm or cool summer... but I am pretty sure that OLM will not run warmer than SEA either way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 SEA: +2.5, +1.1, +0.7 OLM: +1.4, 0.0, -0.2 PDX: +1.8, +1.4, +0.6 CQT: +0.2, +0.4, -0.2 DEN: -2.7, -1.1, 0.0 DCA: +3.2, +2.8, +2.0 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 Total shot in the dark but why not. SEA: +2.0, +2.5, +2.5 PDX: +1.5, +2.0, +2.1 OLM: +0.8, +1.5, +1.6 CQT: 0.0, +1.5, +2.5 DEN: -1.0, 0.0, +1.0 DCA: +3.0, +2.0, +3.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 Phil is pretty much the only one going with a close to seasonal June. (PNW) Setting himself up to look really smart or really not 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 Location, JUN, JUL, AUG SEA, +1.6, +2.2, -0.8 OLM, +1.0, +1.8, -1.0 PDX, +1.4, +2.2, -0.6 CQT, +0.2, +1.0, +0 DEN, -0.8, +0.3, +0.8 DCA, +2.6, +1.2, +3.2 My average for both SEA and PDX for the 3 months is +1.0 and OLM is +0.6. Basically an average of between (-1 to +1) which I consider a normal summer and cooler in the past several years. I'm pretty much the only one going with negative departures for the PNW locations in August so I'll need to hit that to have any chance of winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 Add an extra degree onto your guess for DCA and you should be fine, lol.Yeah, DCA is the hottest location in my forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 Not sure if it will end up a warm or cool summer... but I am pretty sure that OLM will not run warmer than SEA either way.Unnecessary comment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 Unnecessary comment. Not at all. Golden rule is that OLM will always run cooler than SEA in terms of anomalies. Jared will confirm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 Not at all. Golden rule is that OLM will always run cooler than SEA in terms of anomalies. Jared will confirm. I won last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 I won last year. I just checked... it appears that Frontal Snowsquall won last year. You were not even in the contest. Snowsquall went really warm and it worked out great. I over-corrected for my warm bias. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted June 4, 2019 Report Share Posted June 4, 2019 I just checked... it appears that Frontal Snowsquall won last year. You were not even in the contest. Snowsquall went really warm and it worked out great. I over-corrected for my warm bias. Hmm, well I won one of these silly contests last year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 11, 2019 Report Share Posted June 11, 2019 Though the first 10 days of June. SEA, +2.1OLM, +.7PDX, +1.8CQT, +1.1DEN, -0.9DCA, +.9 SEA, OLM, and PDX will all go up quite a bit this week, CQT should stay near where they're at, DEN should stay similar, and DCA should drop a bit. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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