June 2019 Observations and Discussion

[East Dubzz]

Current run of the HRRR has the complex lifting to the north of Dubuque. That ain’t happening. You’re looking good.

 

Yeah I wasn't sure for a while there, but if anything, it's expanding further South. HRRR has been just terrible with this complex all day.

 

Actually, really liking how it looks right now. 

[St Paul Storm]

CR might even catch the tail end of that line. Man the models really sucked hard today.

 

My chances of additional development are very slim now. Looking forward to mid 90s this weekend.

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR can be a great model, but sometimes during storm action it will refuse to see reality, run after run, all day.

[Iowawx]

Doesn't even look like Cedar Rapids will get the line of storms that developed to the northwest and the NWS says is moving southeast at 35mph. Oh well.

[Stormy]

The HRRR can be a great model, but sometimes during storm action it will refuse to see reality, run after run, all day.

NOAA NWS changed it’s website and HRRR doesn’t work for me anymore or I just don’t know how to use it on my iPad though it used to work.

[East Dubzz]

Temp really dropping here. Down to 74. Was 85 an hour ago.

[Hawkeye]

The outflow just came through here, temp is dropping into the 70s.

[Stormy]

The outflow just came through here, temp is dropping into the 70s.

In central Iowa it’s between DMX radar and hwy 30.

[Hawkeye]

It's just not CR's year.  We've been missed south all month, sometimes barely.  Now a good storm is barely missing north.

[East Dubzz]

Dubuque Dome? I kid I kid... but storms were heading right towards Dubuque and then just kind of fell apart. Weird. I'm honestly not sure we'll get much rain anymore. That was an interesting development.

[East Dubzz]

I mean... what? Can't lie.. this is kind of frustrating. Severe storms to both my NW and SE, but looks like it could almost completely miss me now.

[Money]

Warnings heading right towards me and looks like it might be strengthening up this way

[Stormy]

Dubuque Dome? I kid I kid... but storms were heading right towards Dubuque and then just kind of fell apart. Weird. I'm honestly not sure we'll get much rain anymore. That was an interesting development.

I know the feeling. It sucks worse when there’s a drought. Kind of weird that it looses steam in the afternoon.

[East Dubzz]

I know the feeling. It sucks worse when there’s a drought. Kind of weird that it looses steam in the afternoon.

 

Yeah we definitely haven't had a shortage of rain this year, but the lack of thunderstorms has been disappointing. Looked like we were finally going to get something nice, even if it wasn't severe. But, it literally fell apart right before it got here, yet stayed to my north and developed a strong storm to the south. So lame, but continues what has been a lackluster spring / summer for storms.

[Madtown]

Little windy 40mph ish with the line that came through here....heavy rain only 2 or 3 cracks of thunder...weird.

[Money]

60 mph winds here with a lot of trees down in the city

[East Dubzz]

Actually a severe warned storm to the west of here, heading in this direction. Interested to see how this goes..

[OKwx2k4]

Before I had all this mobile internet and radar technology I looked more at the cloud formations, movements, etc to see what might happen with the weather, and I learned a lot by observing that. I depend so much on radar etc now, but still love looking at clouds and taking photos of them when storms are putting on a show within my view!

I do miss the stormy years in the early and late 1990s when I lived out south and west of OKC. Like you said, being able to see the monstrous thunderheads pile up in the distance or from a lift in elevation out there is something else. It makes you feel pretty small. That's where a huge part of my love of weather comes from.

 

That and Gary England pretty much is a hero in terms of broadcast weather. He was a phenomenal weatherman.

 

The farming thing is just an unusual collection of experiences I've had. When I was a kid I got to go out and run combines out in the milo harvests with big rose granite, monolithic rocks sticking out of the fields. It's something you don't ever forget. Had to be a lonely job but to some, I could see it as being something like heaven on earth. I am glad I got to see it like that. It is a lot different now.

 

The rest of the sentiment that I have comes from standing in more unusual places like drilling platforms, working in a US and family-owned agri-business for over a decade, meeting pipe fitters and travelling welders/fabricators, refractoring crews for kilns and major combustion chambers. I've just had a lot of unique experiences in a short time and in a weird place. I have worked hard, to breaking body and mind a few times but a lot of those guys do things I just can't.

 

Back on our farmers though, I worked in a dairy farm when I was 16. The dairy business literally was destroyed overnight shortly thereafter and subsidized, sold out and rationalized. Farmers haven't gotten a fair shake since, in most areas. It all followed the same pattern. A lot of these folks haven't grown financially in nearly 19 years. Operating the same with less and older but paid for equipment is a hardship and it's only a disguise for growth.

 

We still have those odd years where the models say one thing for a season but nature signals something else. I used to be better at it but I'm like everyone else, I like the models a bit too much too. No matter how much I don't want them to, sometimes they pull me away from a thought that may have been more accurate than the model showed. I think it's good to know both ways and local climate intricacies in an area also. I just try to pay attention to stuff like that I guess.

[Stormy]

The outflow actually made it here as well coming more from the ene.

[OKwx2k4]

@ OKwx2k4

 

What are your predictions for next Winter 2019-20? Any suggestions? I know its early, but was just curious on your thoughts.

Right now it looks like a repeat of last season with more intrusion and a lot more tropical/polar interaction. The N. PAC is a painting from my dreams.

 

7/10 that we go colder and much more widespread snow and ice than last year.

 

The other 3/10...

The PAC gets too hot and we don't get the right wavelengths in the jet come fall, the PAC suddenly flips and realign and we get flooded with warm humid air all winter long.

 

That's where I'm at today. Right now it's like 2009, one of the big 3 from 1976-79, and what I have read about 1917-18's configuration. (Same solar, ocean cycle, etc).

[Iowawx]

It's just not CR's year.  We've been missed south all month, sometimes barely.  Now a good storm is barely missing north.

The number of misses this year with severe weather is just outright awful. We won't get any storms tonight/tomorrow, then our next chance is next week..

 

There is just something about Cedar Rapids and thunderstorms.

[East Dubzz]

The warning on this storm says it’s going east, but it seems more like SE to me.. which would have it missing me, again. Hopefully I’m wrong.

 

Edit: I am not. It’s weakening and heading south.

[CentralNebWeather]

Hottest day of the year so far. 7 pm we are at 96 with heat index at 102 and a 70 dew. Forgot how much I hate this weather. Looks even worse tomorrow. Saving grace today has been a south breeze but may not have it on Friday.

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like the boundary has made its way back north. Not sure if I’ll see any cells but they should fire up pretty close by very soon.

[Andie]

Right now it looks like a repeat of last season with more intrusion and a lot more tropical/polar interaction. The N. PAC is a painting from my dreams.

 

7/10 that we go colder and much more widespread snow and ice than last year.

 

The other 3/10...

The PAC gets too hot and we don't get the right wavelengths in the jet come fall, the PAC suddenly flips and realign and we get flooded with warm humid air all winter long.

 

That's where I'm at today. Right now it's like 2009, one of the big 3 from 1976-79, and what I have read about 1917-18's configuration. (Same solar, ocean cycle, etc).

So, Texas gets another cold damp winter.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like tomorrow is a “weather you can wear” day. Mowing the yard should soak my shirt. Low 70’s dews as I type. Yuck.

[Minny_Weather]

22:30 here and still 85°F. Disgusting. Guess Summer had to come at some point.

 

We have a shot at 100 tomorrow. With a forecasted high of 98 it's not far fetched. Humidity may actually be a hindering factor in that.

[Stormy]

I like this weather much better than 20° with endless dreary, damp, boring weather! I love spring and summer and it’s going much to fast to suit me! Fall is great, but there aren’t many storms and the worst is that winter comes next. Lol I guess I’m just not a winter lover. Maybe I should join the throngs of snow birds heading south every winter. Oh well, I grew up in Ia. and even survived the late 1970s as a kid, and winter isn’t that bad!

[Stormy]

Highs here today were 92°/76°

 

I’m wondering if those storms gaining strength in Mn. and Wi. are the next MCS. It’s to far east to suit me.

 

A short-lived t. storm popped up just ese at dusk with vivid lightning strikes and thunder. Was neat watching it form before my eyes.

[Hawkeye]

It appears today's farther south convection did not help us out at all.  Tonight's storms are right where the HRRR has been showing them all day... from MN into WI.

[Tom]

Its a warm and muggy morning 75F/66F, the warmest morning of the season, which will likely help get to our 1st 90F degree day of the season.  The models have the MCS to my north weakening before it gets here but they do show storm development later this evening.  Gosh, with this hot/humid air mass in place, the atmosphere has been primed around here to produce daily storms.  We had another line of storms (weaker than previous days) that hit my area last evening.  I was outside on my deck when a strong outflow boundary blew on through which was very refreshing.

 

Mosquito's have been on the rise from all the rains we have been getting lately.  Not a big fan of those annoying pests!

[Stormy]

Nice line of storms in ne.Ia. I would say Dubuque has a decent shot at getting storms today providing they don’t crap out and keep back building. Who knows. They might even reach CR. Probably won’t though and just wishful thinking, but I’ve seen storms build due south before.

 

Edit: actually appears that it’s surging southeast right for Debuque. Storm tops over 50k!

[Stormy]

Had a brisk east wind all last evening when suddenly it died down & shifted to the south around 10 pm. Was hoping that outflow would help us out, but.....

[Tom]

The effects from the big SOI crash from last week and the continued deep negative readings, along with the cycling nature of the LRC are all showing up on the models in the extended.  Is this the longest warm spell of the season for most of us up north???  My thoughts on this are yes, this will likely be the longest stretch of significant warmth for the Summer season.  I'm sure there will be periods of warmth but I don't see the extent of the kind of heat/humidity we are dealing with now during the second half of the summer season.  In fact, by the time we enter late August we could very well be seeing signs of Autumn.  

 

In the meantime, I'm certainly enjoying this warm spell and the daily active weather.  Before you know it, and the way this season is shaping up, it won't be long before Labor Day weekend is here and boating/beach season may be fading quickly.

 

The "Hudson Bay Vortex" part of the LRC is showing up on the models right around the 4th of July and right on schedule.  Both GEFS/EPS are showing a piece of the Summer Vortex to skirt S Canada later next week and this will be the beginning of an extended wetter/cooler period.  If you had enough of the heat/humidity, a more refreshing air mass out of Canada is lurking in the extended.

 

 

 

 

 

My worries for an active period of weather during the holiday week/weekend are becoming evident.  I hope it won't hamper outdoor fireworks festivities but I'm not betting my luck on how active this season has been.  Hope the strong CF makes its way through before the holiday and so things clear out next Thursday.  Last nights 00z GEFS have trended increasingly wetter for next week.

 

[Tom]

Very odd to see ENSO 3.4 readings crash when the SOI is in the tank...in fact, over the last week, doesn't it look like the entire scope of the planets oceans are cooling??

 

 

 

[Niko]

Definitely need to spend extra time outside this year when we get these kinds of days.  Been a LONG time.  Low humidity and 80's.  Muggy weather coming, but i will take it!!!

Tbh, I cannot wait. Its been such a chilly, wet Spring, that all 3 (H's) are welcomed. Bring it on Ma Nature!

[Niko]

My first 90 degree day ya'll coming. Temps will soar to that level for the very first time thus far this Summer today. This warm stretch continues right into all of next week w humidity levels high and warm (80's) w pm storms and sunshine. Its safe to say that Summer has officially decided to arrive. The hot (90's) wont be sticking around too much, but 80s will. I remember just days ago when we had lows in the 40s back in mid June. Geez!

 

Btw: just came back from NYC. Went for a day to see my Niece graduate from "The Bronx Science" High School and I gotta tell ya, it was humid there and quite warm w temps well in the 80s.

[East Dubzz]

Storms definitely about to move through. Best of it will be heading west of here, but it’s definitely gonna rain. Not sure if there’s much lightning, though.

[Niko]

Right now it looks like a repeat of last season with more intrusion and a lot more tropical/polar interaction. The N. PAC is a painting from my dreams.

 

7/10 that we go colder and much more widespread snow and ice than last year.

 

The other 3/10...

The PAC gets too hot and we don't get the right wavelengths in the jet come fall, the PAC suddenly flips and realign and we get flooded with warm humid air all winter long.

 

That's where I'm at today. Right now it's like 2009, one of the big 3 from 1976-79, and what I have read about 1917-18's configuration. (Same solar, ocean cycle, etc).

Dont tell that to Jaster. He will not be too happy about it as all storms last Winter by-pass him to his south or north (SAME W ME AS WELL). He was basically sandwich in between. Hopefully, 2013-14 Winter will decide to pay a visit again and wallop SEMI and SWMI ( for Jasters sake).

[Niko]

Nice line of storms in ne.Ia. I would say Dubuque has a decent shot at getting storms today providing they don’t crap out and keep back building. Who knows. They might even reach CR. Probably won’t though and just wishful thinking, but I’ve seen storms build due south before.

 

Edit: actually appears that it’s surging southeast right for Debuque. Storm tops over 50k!

I am hoping I get to see some severe weather over the next couple of days as this warm, humid airmass enters my area and sits through the rest of this week and all of next week. I think I might need to turn on my Sprinklers as it is starting to dry up a bit.