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June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


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Yes, opinions play absolutely no role in your constant, OCD-driven narrative here. :rolleyes:

Of course opinions play a role in almost all of our posts here. But I want to know the reality... and not just lie to myself. I might not post as much about cold and wet patterns but I am not going to sit here and say it will be warm and dry. Nature decides. Not me. If I am always wrong then you should take joy in my posts. But I am not... and that is the real problem.

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12Z ECMWF shows about .20 for Seattle and Portland through next Sunday. It has definitely been trending drier. I think the trough might end up being a little too deep for us again.

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Not only does the 12Z ECMWF only show a little rain... its also very ridgy in the 8-10 day period. It does not even look like a variable pattern at that point... there is no trough lurking to the west.

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At least there's something...

 

Still cloudy here this morning after a low of 50*.

Marine layer is just dissolving around Seattle now. Should be a beautiful afternoon.

 

Prom is today here... perfect day for pics.

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Marine layer is just dissolving around Seattle now. Should be a beautiful afternoon.

 

Prom is today here... perfect day for pics.

 

Yeah now it is turning out pretty nice. Up to 66*.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Not only does the 12Z ECMWF only show a little rain... its also very ridgy in the 8-10 day period. It does not even look like a variable pattern at that point... there is no trough lurking to the west.

Jesse’s dreams must die!!!! I will PAY for that variability post earlier.

 

I would not call days 8-10 “very ridgy” FWIW. Pretty flat pattern at 500mb. The trough doesn’t even fully move out until after day 9.

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Will the Grand Floral Parade be a washout? Will Tim and Phil settle the score? Tune in to find out!

Sad the Rose festival wasn’t this past week. Oh well, what’s the Rose Festival without little moisture and temps on the chilly side. According to maps that have been posted doesn’t look too bad at this point though. Could be much worse!

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Jesse’s dreams must die!!!! I will PAY for that variability post earlier.

 

I would not call days 8-10 “very ridgy”. Pretty flat pattern at 500mb. The trough doesn’t even fully move out until after day 9.

 

 

Always about you.   I would have posted that even if you were still in the Alps somewhere.

 

And I have not seen a pattern like this yet this year.    It looks pretty ridgy to me.     No idea if it will verify.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

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Sad the Rose festival wasn’t this past week. Oh well, what’s the Rose Festival without little moisture and temps on the chilly side. According to maps that have been posted doesn’t look too bad at this point though. Could be much worse!

 

 

12Z ECMWF shows some light showers next Saturday afternoon and highs in the upper 60s down there.   Not terrible... but not as good as today for sure.

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Always about you. I would have posted that even if you were still in the Alps somewhere.

 

 

I know. There were little jabs at the cold freaks sprinkled throughout here the entire time I was gone. Pretty sad how much we occupy your head space.

 

Also sad you don’t have the ability to simply enjoy the weather you like without turning it into the ridiculous, anxiety ridden PR campaign you have going here 24/7.

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I know. There were little jabs at the cold freaks sprinkled throughout here the entire time I was gone. Pretty sad how much we occupy your head space.

 

 

Always about you.   Paranoid.      :lol:

 

I usually just post about things I like or find interesting.    

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Also sad you don’t have the ability to simply enjoy the weather you like without turning it into the ridiculous, anxiety ridden PR campaign you have going here 24/7.

 

:rolleyes:

 

OK.    

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The only rivalry that matches the Phil-Tim rivalry...the Tim-Jesse rivalry!

Sun is just starting to come out here as of 12:30pm. Up to 61 degrees.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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That is 100% accurate. :)

You have no idea what I enjoy. Stop worrying about me and taking everything so personally. You are exhausting.

 

You could have just taken the ensemble map post as more information... but not you.

 

And here we are... so nice to have you back!

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Not only does the 12Z ECMWF only show a little rain... its also very ridgy in the 8-10 day period. It does not even look like a variable pattern at that point... there is no trough lurking to the west.

There actually is a ULL to the N/NW that will drop in after D10 (probably D12-13) but the model is likely having feedback problems upstream, hence the moat of high heights cloaking it locally. This should resolve, but overall it’s not a stagnant pattern until a more amplified waveform initiates around the solstice.

 

I think I mentioned this a few weeks ago, but the intraseasonal component of the tropical forcing will propagate to the WPAC during the second half of this month, and/or into early July, which will (initially) increase the heatwave risk during that timeframe. It stands out clearly to me.

 

But with the SIOD-IPWP curve inverted relative to recent years, I’m also thinking a legitimate cool pattern could follow the heatwave this time, once convection leaves the WPAC and that GOA vortex gets cranking. Whenever that ends up happening (timing is hard to pin down right now) but there should be a decent 10-15 day cool/troughy stretch in the midsummer period this year, after the heatwave immediately preceding it.

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You have no idea what I enjoy. Stop worrying about me and taking everything so personally. You are exhausting.

 

You could have just taken the ensemble map post as more information... but not you.

 

And here we are... so nice to have you back!

I’m sure it’s very nice having me back. You absolutely live for this kind of back and forth. The only mistake anyone ever makes here is trying to match your infinite ability to perpetuate it. :lol:

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No.

 

Always about you.

Ironic. If this place ever deviated from being completely centered around your opinion I think you would have some sort of panic attack. VERY important to you, as illustrated by thousands and thousands of posts.

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There actually is a ULL to the N/NW that will drop in after D10 (probably D12-13) but the model is likely having feedback problems upstream, hence the moat of high heights cloaking it locally. This should resolve, but overall it’s not a stagnant pattern until a more amplified waveform initiates around the solstice.

 

I think I mentioned this a few weeks ago, but the intraseasonal component of the tropical forcing will propagate to the WPAC during the second half of this month, and/or into early July, which will (initially) increase the heatwave risk during that timeframe. It stands out clearly to me.

 

But with the SIOD-IPWP curve inverted relative to recent years, I’m also thinking a legitimate cool pattern could follow the heatwave this time, once convection leaves the WPAC and that GOA vortex gets cranking. Whenever that ends up happening (timing is hard to pin down right now) but there should be a decent 10-15 day cool/troughy stretch in the midsummer period this year, after the heatwave immediately preceding it.

To sum it up:

 

Variability until mid/late June, then a heatwave pattern as forcing propagates over the WPAC, then a crash into a 2011-ish pattern for a few weeks.

 

Analogs are indicative of another heatwave in mid/late August, but I can’t see that far ahead dynamically yet.

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Ironic. If this place ever deviated from being completely centered around your opinion I think you would have some sort panic attack. VERY important to you, as illustrated by thousands and thousands of posts.

You have spent all day moaning about your hurt feelings related to an ensemble mean map. Seems logical. :)

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You have spent all day moaning about your hurt feelings related to an ensemble mean map. Seems logical. :)

It does suck that there is nowhere to talk about/track one of my passions online without being constantly harassed. But yeah should definitely be used to it by now.

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To sum it up:

 

Variability until mid/late June, then a heatwave pattern as forcing propagates over the WPAC, then a crash into a 2011-ish pattern for a few weeks.

 

Analogs are indicative of another heatwave in mid/late August, but I can’t see that far ahead dynamically yet.

I can't see anything 2011-like coming this summer. But mid-July through September of 2011 was just about complete perfection here in my opinion.

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It does suck that there is nowhere to talk about/track one of my passions online without being constantly harassed. But yeah should definitely be used to it by now.

 

 

No one is harassing you.   I did not even offer an opinion or say anything about your post.   That is just being paranoid.   As usual.

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He specifically tells me that pretty much every day. Its sort of cute. :)

I wouldn’t say every day, but there’s no point in denying something that’s subliminally obvious with respect to everyone involved in these back and forth battles. ;)

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This post is about Jesse.   I have no interest in tracking weather.

 

The 12Z EPS agrees with the operational run at day 10.    This is a personal attack on Jesse.   Its all about him.    :wub:

 

eps-z500a-noram-41-2.png

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This post is not about Jesse.    I attacked him viciously in the previous post.

 

The 12Z EPS shows more zonal flow towards the end of the run.   No signs of any heat.

 

eps-z500a-noram-57.png

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This post is about Jesse. I have no interest in tracking weather.

 

The 12Z EPS agrees with the operational run at day 10. This is a personal attack on Jesse. Its all about him. :wub:

 

eps-z500a-noram-41-2.png

If you didn’t have access to any images after D10, in your mind, could you run that pattern forward based on pattern recognition? If so, how do you think it would evolve?

 

That’s the question I ask myself before I look further into a model run or an ensemble mean (aside from whatever physical parameters/external forcings might be affecting the model).

 

I think if you and I ever met in person, most of our misunderstandings with respect to our interpretations of ensemble means would be remedied (I’m not saying that I disagree with your above take, Tim..I think in this case your interpretation is correct).

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I can't see anything 2011-like coming this summer. But mid-July through September of 2011 was just about complete perfection here in my opinion.

Not as a background state. It would be much shorter in duration.

 

But there are signs of some highly anomalous intraseasonal cycles in the middle latitude wavetrains coming up after the solstice. Not a certainty of course, and we’ll need to watch the wavenumber and frequency in the VP200 anomalies first, but the idea of midsummer whiplash is growing on me.

 

Heatwave to onshore onslaught? Time will tell.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I am just posting to up my post count, got a long way to go.... blah blah blah blah blah

I literally never think about post count. Strange comment.

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