June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Jesse]

Not Failshington County, though!

Why do you want rain there anyway. You must hate summer.

[TT-SEA]

Why do you want rain there anyway. You must hate summer.

I like summer!

 

Occasional rain in the summer is nice.

[Jesse]

Details during the transition are muddled... but there is consistent trend towards retrogression which is climo in early July.

Higher heights are definitely climo. Not sure about retrogression.

[Jesse]

I will be doing fieldwork on the south side of Mt. Adams through Wednesday. Looks like it could get exciting up there starting tomorrow night, maybe some storms.

[TT-SEA]

Higher heights are definitely climo. Not sure about retrogression.

General expansion of the 4-corners high is climo.

[Jesse]

General expansion of the 4-corners high is climo.

That’s probably a better way of saying it.

[TacomaWaWx]

58 and mostly sunny in Tacoma. Not a bad day the first real sunshine in 2 days lol.

[Requiem]

Had the weirdest dream. In this particular dream, I went outside after hearing some strange noises and was promptly knocked down by 75-mph winds. Huh

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF shows the convection that forms east of the mountains on Wednesday afternoon and evening wrapping around the ULL and pounding Vancouver Island on Thursday morning...

 

Looking like a pretty likely outcome. Hard to say exactly where it ends up but we see that from time to time when the rain wraps in from the East like that.

[MossMan]

But you guys don’t have air conditioning. Which makes it even more stupid to root for heatwaves.

 

Again, what’s the fooking point? Why root for heat? WHY? Just because you can? What good does it do for you or for the ecosystem? It’s absolutely 100% pointless.

I do. A lot of people do these days around here.

[TacomaWaWx]

I do. A lot of people do these days around here.

more and more people have been getting AC units not every house has them but people have been installing them.

You definitely need them a lot more in other parts of the country than here obviously.

[Front Ranger]

We almost never have that weather here... its so rare that its not even a thought.   But its your default summer weather.   Big difference.    You are projecting.

 

I understand why people in Portland and Eugene like summer troughing... it results in nice weather there.   I don't like it here because its often gloomy.   I would feel differently if I lived down there.   

 

It's not really that simple. If it were, Portland would be way sunnier on average than Seattle. It's not.

[Front Ranger]

Had the weirdest dream. In this particular dream, I went outside after hearing some strange noises and was promptly knocked down by 75-mph winds. Huh

 

Pipe dream.

[Phil]

General expansion of the 4-corners high is climo.

Well, that feature is likely to be persistently weaker than normal this year (for a multitude of reasons).

 

The PNW can achieve warmth without a strong 4-corners high, however. The SW/Southern Plains are a different story.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1/2" of rain is still fairly lame. Especially when you are as behind average as we are. 

[TT-SEA]

It's not really that simple. If it were, Portland would be way sunnier on average than Seattle. It's not.

 

 

I don't live in Seattle which also fares better during summer troughing than my area.     

 

During summer troughing like we have had over the last few days... Seattle and Portland have been running a couple degrees below normal while it has been 10-15 degrees below normal in the Snoqualmie Valley.     I would not mind this pattern so much if I lived in Seattle and Portland.   I might even cheer for summer troughing if I lived in Salem or Eugene.    Its perfect down there in this pattern.

 

And I know I would be a huge fan of summer troughing if I lived in DC!

[Jesse]

EPS still likes the idea of keeping troughing a lot closer to us in the 7-10 day range, approaching the big holiday.

[Jesse]

1/2" of rain is still fairly lame. Especially when you are as behind average as we are.

Better than nothing, which is what you can usually expect in late June these days.

 

Some areas that really need it as well, like the coast range, Olympic Peninsula and Cascades get more like 1-2” on that map. I will take it.

[TT-SEA]

Better than nothing, which is what you can usually expect in late June these days.

 

Some areas that really need it as well, like the coast range, Olympic Peninsula and Cascades get more like 1-2” on that map. I will take it.

 

 

Best part would be the heavy rain on Vancouver Island... they really need it.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

I enjoy rain in the summer if it's occasional and it comes from a tropical source enough to keep temperatures 75 degrees or higher. In Hawaii, rain showers can be refreshing since it's not 62 degrees outside when it rains.

[Front Ranger]

Better than nothing, which is what you can usually expect in late June these days.

 

Some areas that really need it as well, like the coast range, Olympic Peninsula and Cascades get more like 1-2” on that map. I will take it.

 

If it ends up beating late June 2016 or especially late June 2014 for the Portland area, that would be a spectacular win.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If it ends up beating late June 2016 or especially late June 2014 for the Portland area, that would be a spectacular win.

 

2012 was nice.

[Jesse]

Nice day.

[TT-SEA]

HOLY SH*T... the sun is shining!

 

[TacomaWaWx]

63 and mostly sunny currently. Even if we get 2 inches of rain before July 1st this would still be the driest January 1st-June 30th period I’ve recorded. The previous record is 2008 with 14.95” of rain throughout that time frame. Currently sitting at 12.05”. This is also following the driest July 1st-December 31st period I’ve recorded which was 11.72” during the second half of 2018. Closest to that record is 12.40” during the second half of 2013.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Lapse rates look impressive here tomorrow and especially Wednesday with almost direct southerly flow. Looking forward to some fun.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Thought this was a neat article.

 

https://www.boldmethod.com/learn-to-fly/weather/thunderstorm-instability-how-they-form/

[Front Ranger]

2012 was nice.

 

That's really setting your sights high. 2.25" the last week of June at PDX.

 

Ended up as the second wettest June on record, after 2010.

 

#coldphase

[Phil]

Looks like HADSST4 was just released to replace HADSST3. To nobody’s surprise, they steepened the warming trend yet again. #OccamsRazor

 

Funniest part is they bumped up the 2012-18 period more than most of the middle 20th century and blew through their own previously published margins of error in some instances. Lol.

[MossMan]

Nice day! Must have to do with the WHAM, the SST 140, and the #octopusrazorclams! Did I do good Phil?

[Phil]

[High Desert Mat?]

Lapse rates look impressive here tomorrow and especially Wednesday with almost direct southerly flow. Looking forward to some fun.

They don’t look that great. Surface heating won’t be as optimal as say a day that may hit 90 or so. But the LI’s look favorable for late tomorrow and Wednesday especially. We’ll see though, t-storms are hard to predict this far west. We don’t have “lines” of severe weather easily seen on radar coming at us routinely. Pop ups are really hard to predict, like a snowstorm in Portland.

[Phil]

They don’t look that great. Surface heating won’t be as optimal as say a day that may hit 90 or so. But the LI’s look favorable for late tomorrow and Wednesday especially. We’ll see though, t-storms are hard to predict this far west. We don’t have “lines” of severe weather easily seen on radar coming at us routinely. Pop ups are really hard to predict, like a snowstorm in Portland.

Lapse rates (generally) have more to do with upper level dynamics than surface heating, though the degree to which convection is surface-rooted w/in the boundary layer would depend more on the heating/CAPE aspect.

[Front Ranger]

Mosquitoes are out in force here. Think they've eaten all the lightning flies.

[Deweydog]

87%

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice day today high of 66 little warmer than yesterday with the sunshine.

[ShawniganLake]

GFS just took away Thursday’s rainstorm here.

[TT-SEA]

GFS just took away Thursday’s rainstorm here.

We will see what the ECMWF shows.

[TacomaWaWx]

High temp hasn’t hit 70 degrees here in a week. Might get close to it or hit it tomorrow. Really enjoyable cool stretch of weather doesn’t look like any heat waves in the foreseeable future.

[GHweatherChris]

We will see what the ECMWF shows.

Yea we will.