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June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


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I wonder if we'll notice any of this volcanic ash in the upper atmosphere in the coming days:

 

JfdYLBz.png

Yeah I heard there was a volcanic eruption in japan.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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GFS just took away Thursday’s rainstorm here.

00Z ECMWF shifted the rain event on Thursday morning northward... focused on central VI now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF shifted the rain event on Thursday morning northward... focused on central VI now.

It’ll probably end up that way, but it’s been very dry up there too so they need the rain. Having said that models never seem to handle these setups that well, we might have to wait and see where the convection fires up on Wednesday

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It’ll probably end up that way, but it’s been very dry up there too so they need the rain. Having said that models never seem to handle these setups that well, we might have to wait and see where the convection fires up on Wednesday

 

 

Yeah... models never handled these situations well with wrap around moisture.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF is juuuuuuust a bit different for next week. So much for a warm holiday weekend.

Pretty much all the models are flip-flopping past day 7. One model changing in the long range is not a concern. Happened with the GFS, then it flipped back. Tell me in three or four days when the Euro is still showing the same thing.

 

The trough also looks suspiciously strong for California in July (5°C 850s over San Francisco and 10°C over Sacramento!) but then again I’m not too familiar with that stuff.

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I think an El Nino is off the table now...

 

nino34.png

Watch it spike up in the next week lol.

 

But for now it’s looking more and more like Phil’s 19-20 “rip the band-aid off” Niño dud might not be a thing. Though we are due for one down here. Hoping for the best though.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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It’ll probably end up that way, but it’s been very dry up there too so they need the rain. Having said that models never seem to handle these setups that well, we might have to wait and see where the convection fires up on Wednesday

 

 

FWIW... the 12Z NAM shifted south from its 00Z run with that wrap around band on Thursday morning.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_42.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice morning. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Pretty out there with clouds moving in. 56F

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Sunny morning for the first time in 12 days here. Just a short break it appears.

Are we supposed to be dry all day?

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Sunny morning for the first time in 12 days here.    Just a short break it appears.

 

We've had sun at least for a few minutes every day this month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sunny morning for the first time in 12 days here.    Just a short break it appears.

 

It is your own personal cloud Eyore. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Has not been so great up here in this pattern... except near the water.     

 

I'm just joking around. By this time of year though it is almost certainly pleasant enough to enjoy outdoor activities no matter the sky condition. Went camping last weekend. Caught 12 small brook trout on Sunday. Yay. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm just joking around. By this time of year though it is almost certainly pleasant enough to enjoy outdoor activities no matter the sky condition. Went camping last weekend. Caught 12 small brook trout on Sunday. Yay. 

 

 

This past weekend was not really pleasant up here for summer activities.   It was chilly and dark and windy and frequently drizzling.    It certainly did not feel summer-like.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This past weekend was not really pleasant up here for summer activities.   It was chilly and dark and windy and frequently drizzling.    It certainly did not feel summer-like.    

 

I think you live in the wrong area. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yes... today should be dry all day.

Good, thanks! I really should follow the forecast more closely this time of the year but I don’t. Anyway I still need to mow, the weekend ended up being too busy. Only chance is later this afternoon to hop on the mower.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I think you live in the wrong area. 

 

 

No... there are just certain patterns which are not favorable here.   

 

The normal high in the Snoqualmie Valley is 73 right now... so highs in the upper 50s is certainly not typical summer weather.   But it happens sometimes.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Watch it spike up in the next week lol.

 

But for now it’s looking more and more like Phil’s 19-20 “rip the band-aid off” Niño dud might not be a thing. Though we are due for one down here. Hoping for the best though.

Yeah, looks like it might be delayed a little bit..we could start moving that direction this fall, but clearly the “deck clearing” niño won’t complete this winter.

 

Still, whether delayed or not, that cycle of ENSOs (niño followed by PDO flip to negative and multiyear niña) is still in the cards in the early 2020s. Might just be a year later.

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Yeah, looks like it might be delayed a little bit..we could start moving that direction this fall, but clearly the “deck clearing” niño won’t complete this winter.

 

Still, whether delayed or not, that cycle of ENSOs (niño followed by PDO flip to negative and multiyear niña) is still in the cards in the early 2020s. Might just be a year later.

 

Neutral this year. Nina next year. TAKE IT TO THE BANKKKKKK

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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57 and some filtered sunshine in Tacoma this morning. Beautiful morning. Might crack 70 degrees here for the first time in a week. Looks like it’ll dip into the mid 60s for a few days after that and then up into the low to mid 70s next week.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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FWIW... the 12Z GEM agrees with the 12Z GFS.   And they are probably both out to lunch and will get owned by the Europeans.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nah. Things are gonna warm up as we flip the calendars to July.

 

 

EPS is consistently saying that will not happen.  

 

I trust the EPS above all when its consistent. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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