June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Phil]

I like the 12Z GFS... but don't trust it at all in light of the ECMWF and EPS.

There’s a solid 15-20 days with a medium frequency WPAC forcing structure starting in early July.

 

Don’t worry, you’ll get your fix. I’m just hoping it ends by the time I arrive on the 26th (should be flipping back around that time, but my presence might screw with the matrix again).

[Kayla]

HRRR shows what looks like convection over King County tomorrow afternoon...

 

36 hour HRRR forecast is about 35 hours beyond its capabilities. 

[TacomaWaWx]

62 and sunny as of 11:30am. Maybe the HRRR will be right about tomorrow but I don’t trust the HRRR.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM agrees with the 12Z GFS. And they are probably both out to lunch and will get owned by the Europeans.

I'm really interested to see what the EURO will show us in a bit. The models are having a hard time with the medium to longe range.

[TT-SEA]

Total precip through Friday morning per the 12Z ECMWF... looks like it is staying with the northward solution for Vancouver Island with the wrap around. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Total precip through Friday morning per the 12Z ECMWF... looks like it is staying with the northward solution for Vancouver Island with the wrap around.

 

Hmm. Looks like maybe 0.1” here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol if it ends up verifying exactly the way the euro says we could triple our monthly rainfall here in Tacoma lol.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Looking convective-y out here .

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much less troughy next week compared to its 00Z run... but not quite as warm and ridgy as the GFS.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z ECMWF is much less troughy next week compared to its 00Z run... but not quite as warm and ridgy as the GFS.

Yeah, not bad. Much better than last night's run.

[TT-SEA]

Juneau and Anchorage will be in the 80s later this week while its in the 60s to low 70s for most of western WA and OR.

 

Side note for Phil... the 500mb pattern is completely irrelevant for Hippa Island temperatures. Its in the 50s and cloudy under ridging and troughing there in the summer.

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF is much less troughy next week compared to its 00Z run... but not quite as warm and ridgy as the GFS.

Euro has been struggling since its upgrade. New GFS leading the way.

[TT-SEA]

Euro has been struggling since its upgrade. New GFS leading the way.

 

Good to know... will start tracking it better.    I just assume the ECMWF is best.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Good to know... will start tracking it better. I just assume the ECMWF is best.

EPS 120 day forecast is the most accurate.

[Front Ranger]

Good to know... will start tracking it better.    I just assume the ECMWF is best.  

 

I honestly don't know. But it seems like the new GFS has been handling the overall pattern better.

[TT-SEA]

I honestly don't know. But it seems like the new GFS has been handling the overall pattern better.

 

 

The last 3 runs of the ECMWF have been an inconsistent mess after day 5.  

[Phil]

I honestly don't know. But it seems like the new GFS has been handling the overall pattern better.

The overall pattern isn’t confined to NW North America.

 

It spans the entire hemisphere.

[TT-SEA]

And the 12Z EPS is much less troughy for next week compared to its 00Z run as well.

[ShawniganLake]

And the 12Z EPS is much less troughy for next week compared to its 00Z run as well.

Never a doubt in my mind.

[TacomaWaWx]

67 and mostly sunny as of 1:30pm. Showers moving northward in SW WA around centralia.

[Front Ranger]

The overall pattern isn’t confined to NW North America.

 

It spans the entire hemisphere.

That is correct, Phil.

[GHweatherChris]

The overall pattern isn’t confined to NW North America.

 

It spans the entire hemisphere.

Brilliant!

[Phil]

Brilliant!

You’re like an annoying little gnat. Go away.

[GHweatherChris]

You’re like an annoying little gnat. Go away.

Nah, I am fine here!

[Phil]

That is correct, Phil.

So, you think the GFS has performed better than the ECMWF over Eurasia?

[Phil]

Nah, I am fine here!

[Jesse]

Never a doubt in my mind.

Favourable.

[GHweatherChris]

 

Nah, I am fine here!

https://i.giphy.com/media/B2TXy2dNh5D9K/giphy.gi

You're so witty Phil.

[ShawniganLake]

Favourable.

Just call em as I see em. I’m good with whatever happens at this point.

[TacomaWaWx]

Light rain in Tacoma but nothing Measurable. 68 and mostly cloudy now.

[Blizzard777]

Should I run for the storm shelter?

I like the feeling of today!!!

[TT-SEA]

Little sprinkles of rain in Tacoma but nothing Measurable. 68 and mostly cloudy now.

 

 

72 and sunny here... SE flow now.

[TacomaWaWx]

72 and sunny here... SE flow now.

was sprinkles at first but it’s actually starting to come down now. Been awhile since I’ve been excited by light rain lol.

[Front Ranger]

So, you think the GFS has performed better than the ECMWF over Eurasia?

 

No idea. But it seems to have handled the North American pattern better recently.

 

I could be wrong...it was an offhand remark partially intended to troll Tim. 

[jakeinthevalley]

Is that supposed to be a west coast firefly?

[TacomaWaWx]

67 and light rain still in Tacoma. Just hasn’t amounted to anything Measurable still just wetting the ground a little. Starting to look like the high temp will be 68 for today as well which will be the 8th day of our sub 70 streak. Bit breezy in Tacoma out of the south.

[Phil]

Is that supposed to be a west coast firefly?

Ha. Yeah, the GhChrisRobustus species.

[GHweatherChris]

Ha. Yeah, the GhChrisRobustus species.

There you go again with your wittiness.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Phil is a 28 yr old living in his parent's basement. Haven't we all figured this out?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Phil is a 28 yr old living in his parent's basement. Haven't we all figured this out?

 

To be fair he does host some pretty insane keggers down there.