June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[seattleweatherguy]

Are you asking if the week of 6/23 will be more sunny and warm than next week?

 

Next week should be fine. There is no way to know really know about the week of 6/23 yet. Bird in the hand...

Yea I was asking that. Phil mentioned heat wave at the end of the month it's intriging. Guess I have a difficult decision to make by Friday.

[TT-SEA]

Yea I was asking that. Phil mentioned heat wave at the end of the month it's intriging. Guess I have a difficult decision to make by Friday.

It will be an easy decision if next week still looks nice then.

[Phil]

Also, for the cool weather lovers, there are (apparently) only 6 cases since 1980 where the polar (60-90N) 500mb height anomaly spiked 20m or higher from the previous year, and none of them were excessively torchy summers in the PNW.

 

They are 1988, 1993, 1995, 2008, 2010, and 2016.

 

Before 1988, you have to go back to 1967.

And FWIW, 2019’s anomaly jumped +44m over 2018.

 

That’s the 3rd largest year over year increase since 1950, behind +45m in 2010 and +47m in 1993.

[Front Ranger]

Phil's conversations with himself are about the only ones you can count on staying civil.

[TT-SEA]

Phil's conversations with himself are about the only ones you can count on staying civil.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah anyone who thinks the Southern Oregon Coast is "meh" has never been there. It's incredible for the Oregon Coast. 

 

Someone on Facebook posted that it was the #6 warmest May at PDX...So I guess I should have verified that. It was a warm month I suppose. 

 

Beautiful day again. 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah anyone who thinks the Southern Oregon Coast is "meh" has never been there. It's incredible for the Oregon Coast. 

 

Someone on Facebook posted that it was the #6 warmest May at PDX...So I guess I should have verified that. It was a warm month I suppose. 

 

Beautiful day again. 

 

 

Most of the Oregon coast is spectacular.  

[Phil]

May 2019 was a huge reversal from 2018 and the majority of the 2013-18 period over the high latitudes.

 

[Phil]

And here’s the interesting part...the May AO correlates pretty darn well to the pattern over the US during both July and August. While the outcome this year wouldn’t align with what I’m forecasting, the correlation has worked since at least 1950 (including for 2013-18), so perhaps we’re in for a midsummer surprise this year.

 

For instance the May AO is negative (like this year) July and August tend to look like this at 500mb:

 

[Jesse]

Looks like it’s about time for the annual trolling of Tim about a now climatologically impossible cooler than average summer being in the pipeline.

[Phil]

And when it’s a strong “first year” -AO in May, it’s an unbroken correlation since 1950. Even 1957 (which was a super niño inception summer) followed it.

 

Maybe this year will be the year that breaks the correlation, but there are some heavy hitters on there on the cool side (both old and recent, +ENSO and -ENSO) on the list, including 2010, 1993, 1954, 2008, 1988, etc.

[jakeinthevalley]

haha. I turned 20 in March.

I'll be 13 next year. Born in 1968.....

[Jesse]

And when it’s a strong “first year” -AO in May, it’s an unbroken correlation since 1950. Even 1957 (super niño inception) followed it.

 

Maybe this year will be the year that breaks the correlation, but there are some heavy hitters on there on the cool side (both old and recent) like 2010, 1993, 1954, 2008, 1988, etc.

You mentioned 1967 as well. That was an absolute scorcher in the late summer and early fall, for the record. Given recent tendencies I’d say that analog is far more likely to verify than the rest.

[Phil]

You mentioned 1967 as well. That was an absolute scorcher in the late summer and early fall, for the record. Given recent tendencies I’d say that analog is far more likely to verify than the rest.

Did I say 1957 or 1967?

 

Because 1967 wasn’t a strong -AO. It was modest.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah anyone who thinks the Southern Oregon Coast is "meh" has never been there. It's incredible for the Oregon Coast. 

 

Someone on Facebook posted that it was the #6 warmest May at PDX...So I guess I should have verified that. It was a warm month I suppose. 

 

Beautiful day again. 

 

They might have meant #6 warmest on record for Portland. That looks about right.

[Phil]

It’s worth noting that several of these years (particularly the more +ENSO ones) had warm May/June combos in the West as well.

 

To be clear, I don’t make forecast based on unexplainable correlations like this, so it’s not what I’m thinking, but I’m definitely keeping and eye on it.

 

Ironically, this method would have correctly predicted the blowtorches throughout the 2013-18 period, and the more average summer/fall in 2016, as well as the cooler regime in 2010-12 and the warm summer in 2009. So..who knows..verbatim it’s suggesting a cooler summer this year, but there are a multitude of factors suggesting otherwise.

[Omegaraptor]

Holy crap, check out this match. May 1995, May 2019. Block was stronger this year, but still solid structural homogeneity.

H/t to Ant Masiello. I missed this one.

Is 1995 a possible analog? It was a good summer and the absolutely incredible winter that followed was even better.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is 1995 a possible analog? It was a good summer and the absolutely incredible winter that followed was even better.

 

Had a lot of cold but not much snow where I was at in Yamhill County then. Plus the big flood in Feb.

[Requiem]

Had a lot of cold but not much snow where I was at in Yamhill County then. Plus the big flood in Feb.

Let’s not forget about the crowning jewel of the season- the December 12th windstorm!

[Jesse]

They might have meant #6 warmest on record for Portland. That looks about right.

Trouble is comparing PDX stats to downtown stats is kinda apples to oranges for a variety of reasons.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Let’s not forget about the crowning jewel of the season- the December 12th windstorm!

 

It really ran the gamut for sure. Weird snow at the end of Feb in EUG for that one apparently.

[Omegaraptor]

I was referring to the incredible rainfall amounts that winter. My rainfall preferences are no secret to anyone here. I don’t want the flood to happen again, but I’m just sick of the persistent dry anomalies that Portland has had for the last two years. Give me a real wet winter. I don’t get why having 7” of rain in one month is so hard nowadays.

[Requiem]

I was referring to the incredible rainfall amounts that winter. My rainfall preferences are no secret to anyone here. I don’t want the flood to happen again, but I’m just sick of the persistent dry anomalies that Portland has had for the last two years. Give me a real wet winter. I don’t get why having 7” of rain in one month is so hard nowadays.

December 2015 was absolutely amazing. What really irks me is the frustrating lack of a major windstorm. The last one region-wide would be 12/14/06.

[TacomaWaWx]

I was referring to the incredible rainfall amounts that winter. My rainfall preferences are no secret to anyone here. I don’t want the flood to happen again, but I’m just sick of the persistent dry anomalies that Portland has had for the last two years. Give me a real wet winter. I don’t get why having 7” of rain in one month is so hard nowadays.

last time we had more than 7 inches of rainfall in one month here locally was January 2018 with 8.12 inches. Had 5.61 inches in April 2018 but other than that each month has had 4 inches or less here. 2018 was a drier than normal year and 2019 has been throughout the first half.

[Front Ranger]

Trouble is comparing PDX stats to downtown stats is kinda apples to oranges for a variety of reasons.

 

Yeah, but comparing modern PDX to old school PDX is also apples to oranges.

 

FWIW, the rural Battle Ground station didn't even see a top 10 warm May. Also not top 10 for Forest Grove. It was the #7 warmest May at the downtown station since 1973 (when they moved to the current location).

 

I think it's fair to say that PDX was a warm outlier for the area, in terms of historical anomaly. Not surprising, of course, but worth keeping in mind if we're tracking "top 5 warmest Mays", etc. It was definitely warmer further north, though, legit top 5 for many places in western WA and apparently BC.

[TacomaWaWx]

December 2015 was absolutely amazing. What really irks me is the frustrating lack of a major windstorm. The last one region-wide would be 12/14/06.

it’ll happen eventually. Almost happened in 2016 just took a slightly wrong track essentially. We had some decent windstorms up in the Puget Sound on 12/14, 12/20 and 1/6. They weren’t historically impressive or anything just the type of storms you see every 3-5 years. Something like the Columbus Day storm, Inauguration Day storm or the Hanukkah eve storm is bound to happen again eventually.

[Omegaraptor]

last time we had more than 7 inches of rainfall in one month here locally was January 2018 with 8.12 inches. Had 5.61 inches in April 2018 but other than that each month has had 4 inches or less here. 2018 was a drier than normal year and 2019 has been throughout the first half.

Haven’t had any months wetter than 7” since March 2017. April 2018 yielded about 3.5”, November 2018 had Seattle getting twice as much rain as Portland, and in April 2019 the whole atmospheric river thing derped south to Eugene and we got one third the rain that they did.

 

I’m sick of being missed by every single rain event.

[TacomaWaWx]

Haven’t had any months wetter than 7” since March 2017. April 2018 yielded about 3.5”, November 2018 had Seattle getting twice as much rain as Portland, and in April 2019 the whole atmospheric river thing derped south to Eugene and we got one third the rain that they did.

 

I’m sick of being missed by every single rain event.

I’m not sure how Portland did from 2014-2017, but up here in the Seattle area we had 45-50” 4 years straight. So it makes sense that we’re going through a drier phase currently over the last 18 months.

[James Jones]

Yeah, but comparing modern PDX to old school PDX is also apples to oranges.

 

FWIW, the rural Battle Ground station didn't even see a top 10 warm May. Also not top 10 for Forest Grove. It was the #7 warmest May at the downtown station since 1973 (when they moved to the current location).

 

I think it's fair to say that PDX was a warm outlier for the area, in terms of historical anomaly. Not surprising, of course, but worth keeping in mind if we're tracking "top 5 warmest Mays", etc. It was definitely warmer further north, though, legit top 5 for many places in western WA and apparently BC.

 

Not disputing what you said but it should be noted that the downtown KGW station has been running ridiculously cool compared to PDX during the warm season in recent years. Here's the comparison for warm season 2018 but it's been the same story for years now:

 

Downtown KGW vs PDX:

 

May - 71.3/51.7 vs. 73.6/52.4

 

June -  73.8/53.8  vs. 76.2/55.3

 

July - 84.6/59.6 vs. 87.5/60.5

 

August - 81.5/59.8 vs. 84.3/60.0

 

September - 73.5/53.1 vs. 75.9/52.8

 

Don't know what's going on but I think it's more likely to be something screwy with the KGW station than a regulated, quality station like PDX. Increased UHI at PDX is definitely a factor but it's hard to imagine it being responsible for all of that discrepancy. 

[Omegaraptor]

Not disputing what you said but it should be noted that the downtown KGW station has been running ridiculously cool compared to PDX during the warm season in recent years. Here's the comparison for warm season 2018 but it's been the same story for years now:

 

Downtown KGW vs PDX:

 

May - 71.3/51.7 vs. 73.6/52.4

 

June -  73.8/53.8  vs. 76.2/55.3

 

July - 84.6/59.6 vs. 87.5/60.5

 

August - 81.5/59.8 vs. 84.3/60.0

 

September - 73.5/53.1 vs. 75.9/52.8

 

Don't know what's going on but I think it's more likely to be something screwy with the KGW station than a regulated, quality station like PDX. Increased UHI at PDX is definitely a factor but it's hard to imagine it being responsible for all of that discrepancy.

 

Also is the KGW station in a wetter microclimate than PDX or is the rain gauge just wrong? It averages 42” as opposed to 36”.

[Jesse]

I’m not sure how Portland did from 2014-2017, but up here in the Seattle area we had 45-50” 4 years straight. So it makes sense that we’re going through a drier phase currently over the last 18 months.

I think you are just repeating what you’ve heard Tim say.

 

In reality the last several warm seasons have been unprecedented as far as warmth and dryness, annual totals aside. So seeing another warm and dry warm season is pretty crazy and doesn’t make a whole lot of sense looking at our long term climo. But here we are, off to another very warm and dry start for warm season 2019.

[TT-SEA]

I think you are just repeating what you’ve heard Tim say.

 

In reality the last several warm seasons have been unprecedented as far as warmth and dryness, annual totals aside. So seeing another warm and dry warm season is pretty crazy and doesn’t make a whole lot of sense looking at our long term climo. But here we are, off to another very warm and dry start for warm season 2019.

 

 

Both are sort of true... and one could make a case for dry period up here being a little more likely to somewhat offset the wet period from 2014-17.    

 

And a wet summer would not really move the needle much on the precip for the entire year anyways.   So we could easily have a wet summer in a dry year.

[Omegaraptor]

It's winter that determines most of the precip, since we live in a Mediterranean climate. Unfortunately the last two winters have both been dry, the last one especially so.

[Requiem]

it’ll happen eventually. Almost happened in 2016 just took a slightly wrong track essentially. We had some decent windstorms up in the Puget Sound on 12/14, 12/20 and 1/6. They weren’t historically impressive or anything just the type of storms you see every 3-5 years. Something like the Columbus Day storm, Inauguration Day storm or the Hanukkah eve storm is bound to happen again eventually.

Yeah, the windstorms in the past fifteen years seem very Seattle-centric. Fingers crossed for a good one soon!

[Jesse]

Both are sort of true... and one could make a case for dry period up here being a little more likely to somewhat offset the wet period from 2014-17.

 

And a wet summer would not really move the needle much on the precip for the entire year anyways. So we could easily have a wet summer in a dry year.

Very true. Stats can say a lot of things depending on how you slice them.

 

Although I think focusing on the statistically wet annual totals has been useful in perpetuating the narrative that you are absolutely drowning up there, when in reality there has never been such an unbroken stretch of California-like warm seasons in the region’s recorded history. In winter it’s usually raining anyway, so the high totals that have been padding the annual stats don’t impact those oh so precious outdoor plans as much. Which I know you are well aware of.

[TT-SEA]

Very true. Stats can say a lot of things depending on how you slice them.

 

Although I think focusing on the statistically wet annual totals has been useful in perpetuating the narrative that you are absolutely drowning up there, when in reality there has never been such an unbroken stretch of California-like warm seasons in the region’s recorded history. In winter it’s usually raining anyway, so the high totals that have been padding the annual stats don’t impact those oh so precious outdoor plans as much. Which I know you are well aware of.

 

 

And the problem is that you make assumptions about what I am saying.

 

I have not said we are due for a dry or hot summer.   I said we were due for a dry year... or two... or three.    And that appears to be happening now.    

 

I also expected a drier than normal winter eventually here... and that finally happened in 2018-19.    

 

We can easily have a wet summer in a dry year... could happen this year.   We are due for that as well.  

[Front Ranger]

Not disputing what you said but it should be noted that the downtown KGW station has been running ridiculously cool compared to PDX during the warm season in recent years. Here's the comparison for warm season 2018 but it's been the same story for years now:

 

Downtown KGW vs PDX:

 

May - 71.3/51.7 vs. 73.6/52.4

 

June - 73.8/53.8 vs. 76.2/55.3

 

July - 84.6/59.6 vs. 87.5/60.5

 

August - 81.5/59.8 vs. 84.3/60.0

 

September - 73.5/53.1 vs. 75.9/52.8

 

Don't know what's going on but I think it's more likely to be something screwy with the KGW station than a regulated, quality station like PDX. Increased UHI at PDX is definitely a factor but it's hard to imagine it being responsible for all of that discrepancy.

Yeah, that does seem like an unusual difference. Still, the downtown station is just one data point - the more rural stations also support PDX being a warm outlier for the area.

[Front Ranger]

Also is the KGW station in a wetter microclimate than PDX or is the rain gauge just wrong? It averages 42” as opposed to 36”.

That 42" is more in line with most the metro area.

[Phil]

Is 1995 a possible analog? It was a good summer and the absolutely incredible winter that followed was even better.

If the niño is delayed a year, then it definitely is an analog, though ENSO will probably be warmer this go around.

 

Fits the thermocline structure too..steep with a deep warm pool and WPAC warmth/enhanced EPAC cool tongue.

[TacomaWaWx]

I think you are just repeating what you’ve heard Tim say.

 

In reality the last several warm seasons have been unprecedented as far as warmth and dryness, annual totals aside. So seeing another warm and dry warm season is pretty crazy and doesn’t make a whole lot of sense looking at our long term climo. But here we are, off to another very warm and dry start for warm season 2019.

definitely has been unprecedented you are correct. I wasn’t referring to temps in the post mainly just in terms of rainfall from 2014-2017. You are right though things have been getting warmer.

Here from the rainfall data I’ve taken, 2014 had 50.66” 2015 had 45.12” 2016 had 48.22” and 2017 had 51.60” so there were 4 years of above normal rainfall. Average temps during the period have also been on the rise.