Omegaraptor Posted June 27, 2019 Report Share Posted June 27, 2019 Discuss any predictions of the upcoming fall and winter season of 2019-20. When will rainy season start? Will November be a soaker? Will winter be cold and snowy? Discuss here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted June 27, 2019 Report Share Posted June 27, 2019 First snow will be 10/31-11/6 timeframe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 27, 2019 Report Share Posted June 27, 2019 Late January will be splitty and dull. Like the last 25. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 27, 2019 Report Share Posted June 27, 2019 It would be fun to get the remnants of a hurricane sometime in September to bring over an inch of rain as long as it's in the upper 70s or low 80s. That happened a few years ago with Hurricane Linda. This would hopefully reduce fire danger before the first Santa Ana winds arrive and tropical rain can be refreshing, unlike the cold storms we usually get from the Pacific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted June 27, 2019 Report Share Posted June 27, 2019 Due for a dud in the s valley, hasn't been a snowless winter here since 15-16. Probly some action PDX north tho. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2019 West Portland and the Tualatin Valley hasn’t had a good winter since 16-17 so we’re probably due, even though I don’t like using that word. The different pattern in the Arctic and the floundering Niño looks encouraging, although I don’t know how long it will take to get to neutral. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2019 Looks like the weak Modoki +ENSO is probably around to stay. I’m betting that next winter will probably be garbage for lowland snow, lowland rain, and mountain snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2019 Report Share Posted July 1, 2019 Looks like the weak Modoki +ENSO is probably around to stay. I’m betting that next winter will probably be garbage for lowland snow, lowland rain, mountain snow.Doubt it will be that bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2019 Report Share Posted July 1, 2019 Wow... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted July 1, 2019 Report Share Posted July 1, 2019 Wow... Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice 3h3 hours agoMoreFor the first time in months, the ENSO3.4 index dipped down into negative territory. This comes weeks following the emergence of an upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which pushed into the far eastern Pacific basin. Note: oceanic kelvin wave activity to continue through Fall 2019. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 3, 2019 Report Share Posted July 3, 2019 Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice 3h3 hours agoMoreFor the first time in months, the ENSO3.4 index dipped down into negative territory. This comes weeks following the emergence of an upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which pushed into the far eastern Pacific basin. Note: oceanic kelvin wave activity to continue through Fall 2019. So much for a strong Nino this year... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 I bet you're all sick of seeing pessimistic posts from me about winter, so I'm going to say something a bit more optimistic. The floundering Niño is more encouraging when you realize that many of the best years for mountain snow are first year Niñas (although some like 71-72 are second year Niñas). Good first year Niñas include 73-74, 98-99, 10-11, and 16-17. The best case scenario is that the Niño continues to die and that we enter -ENSO before winter starts. Hoping that we make up for the dry last two years with a full-on wet winter + high snowpack year like 98-99 or 16-17. Not saying this is probable or even likely, but it is encouraging to think about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2019 On the other hand, we have this thing in the NE Pacific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted July 8, 2019 Report Share Posted July 8, 2019 D4285130-30A5-4041-A58B-CF441F7BF742.png On the other hand, we have this thing in the NE Pacific.That blob seems to come around every summer, and often goes away once the fall storms stir things up. Of course it did not go away the one winter a few years ago, but it is still too early to be concerned about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 8, 2019 Report Share Posted July 8, 2019 The blob was there in 13-14 right? While I don't think it's as significant as it's made out to be, I still think we are looking at a dud at least in the s valley for 19-20. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamMe Posted July 17, 2019 Report Share Posted July 17, 2019 Scott Sistek of KOMO Seattle, just posted an update that the current El Nino cycle is dying off and we're headed for a 62% chance of a "neutral" fall and winter in the NW. https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/el-nino-on-its-last-legs-gone-before-autumn Note forecast continue to lean toward a neutral fall and winter too -- though a return of El Nino is not out of the question and holds a decent second place in the betting odds. La Niña appears to be biding its time, through in the typical cycle of these things, we'd probably expect La Niña to return in the winter of 20-21 or 21-22. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 D4285130-30A5-4041-A58B-CF441F7BF742.png On the other hand, we have this thing in the NE Pacific. That is pretty much a negative PDO so not as bad as it looks. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 No reason to think this winter won't have some good moments at the very least. Neutral ENSO pretty likely, deep solar min, and the late winter carryover effect we often see. It's common to see a strong winter following abnormal cold in the late part of the previous season. We also have the fact this is the second solar cycle to have very low activity. This is reminiscent of the 1878 to 1914 period which featured 3 consecutive very low solar cycles, but this one has been even deeper. We could be looking at a really good winter this time. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 24, 2019 A decent amount of upwelling reaches to the 140th meridian now. Much stronger anomalies than what we saw at the start of July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 25, 2019 Report Share Posted July 25, 2019 E8585C38-262C-4778-BB77-DFDEE854EEC6.gif DD9AB8D6-2BBF-46D2-84EA-6D708AD4E282.png A decent amount of upwelling reaches to the 140th meridian now. Much stronger anomalies than what we saw at the start of July. There is a persistent anomalous high pressure cell over the SE Pacific that is going to really stoke the upwelling off the West Coast of South America. That surface high is pretty much the death of any El Nino potential for next winter. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamMe Posted August 6, 2019 Report Share Posted August 6, 2019 So do you see a continued weakening of El Nino still? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Windstorm on Thanksgiving leaving hundreds of thousands without power. Sad uncooked Turkey’s and Tofurkey’s everywhere. 43 degree drizzle for Christmas, and finally an epically cold and snowy January! Sunny/warm February, and a show wet spring. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 So far everything I have looked at shows this year being a dead ringer for 1985. We are talking solar, ENSO, NE Pacific surface pressure, GOA height anomalies, QBO, and very cold February the previous winter. Almost spooky how close the match is. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 So far everything I have looked at shows this year being a dead ringer for 1985. We are talking solar, ENSO, NE Pacific surface pressure, GOA height anomalies, QBO, and very cold February the previous winter. Almost spooky how close the match is. What did 1985 have in store? I can't remember it as being particularly notable (at least for Portland) apart from a November (was it?) cold snap, but what else did it have? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 What did 1985 have in store? I can't remember it as being particularly notable (at least for Portland) apart from a November (was it?) cold snap, but what else did it have?Personal backyards is all that matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 What did 1985 have in store? I can't remember it as being particularly notable (at least for Portland) apart from a November (was it?) cold snap, but what else did it have? Coldest November and December on record at PDX. 1985 was the coldest year on record at SLE... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 Coldest November and December on record at PDX. 1985 was the coldest year on record at SLE... Darn, I can't believe I don't hear more about it. Any lowland snow events? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 There was snow and cold in February 86 too, at least in northern regions, not sure how far south it extended 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 Also 52 consecutive days with snowcover here between November 85 and January 86 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted August 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 Darn, I can't believe I don't hear more about it. Any lowland snow events?Portland got snow in November, December, and February in 85-86. About 11” fell at PDX total that winter. 11/24/85 was a 25/13 day at PDX. On two separate occasions (11/22-11/25 and 11/28-12/1) the temperature at PDX did not exceed freezing for four straight days. Absolutely incredible for November. Since records started at PDX in 1940, just three years have recorded a subfreezing November high (1955, 1985, 2010). Hillsboro, which is outside of the UHI and has records back to 1930? Just those same three years have had a subfreezing Nov high. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 Darn, I can't believe I don't hear more about it. Any lowland snow events?Late November 1985 is a regional benchmark for cold and snow that time of year. Also, PDX had their earliest freeze on record early that October, following a cool and relatively active September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 There was snow and cold in February 86 too, at least in northern regions, not sure how far south it extended EUG had almost 3" on Feb 18, 1986 plus got in on the Nov-Dec action with 7" on Nov 30-Dec 1 and a 26/21 day. They had about a foot for the winter. Looking at the records, it seems this was a very interesting and fun year that spread the wealth regionally, only downside was yet another Jan torch. I would enjoy 29/16 with snow for the Civil War in Autzen. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 Silver Falls had their earliest sub-30 day on 8/14/1985. A low of 22 on 10/9/85. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 1985 winter got started real early in Bozeman as well. 7" of snow fell in September and it dropped down to 16F on the 29th with a 32/21 day on the 28th. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 Silver Falls had their earliest sub-30 day on 8/14/1985. A low of 22 on 10/9/85.Sub 30 on August 14? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 So far everything I have looked at shows this year being a dead ringer for 1985. We are talking solar, ENSO, NE Pacific surface pressure, GOA height anomalies, QBO, and very cold February the previous winter. Almost spooky how close the match is. It's certainly a good match in a number of ways (ENSO being the worst part of the match). Of course, can't stress enough that the current solar min and overall solar activity, including the past complete cycle, is much lower than it was in the 1980s. With that in mind, weak ENSO and positive QBO, massive blocking and resultant major cold waves for the lower 48 and Europe seems inevitable. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 10, 2019 Report Share Posted August 10, 2019 Looking back, EUG has had 81 years of cold season records to date. The median snowfall is 1.5 and were it not for the awful 1996-2013 stretch, it would be much higher. Since 2013 things have gotten back to normal. From Feb 96-Dec 03 there was nothing and there is no snowless stretch even close to that long in the older records. Prior to the mid 90s EUG had a lot more snow on an annual basis. Look for it to be a nice cold season again with no nino. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 11, 2019 Report Share Posted August 11, 2019 Snovember 2019! Frozen turkeys and all! You heard it here FIRST!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 11, 2019 Report Share Posted August 11, 2019 NMME has the coldest anomalies in the entire world focused on BC in the month of January Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 11, 2019 Report Share Posted August 11, 2019 Darn, I can't believe I don't hear more about it. Any lowland snow events? It was truly extraordinary in the northern half of Western WA. November 1985 had up to 12 consecutive highs of 32 or lower in the Puget Sound area, two weeks with snow on the ground (in some cases quite a bit longer), and the coldest Nov and Dec combo ever recorded (at least back to 1850). When I say this year is similar in many ways to 1985 I'm not saying November will be the big month. It might be, but I think the most likely is January with a tie between Dec and Feb for second most likely. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.