Jump to content

Fall and Winter 2019-20 Predictions and Discussion


Omegaraptor

Recommended Posts

Can’t stress this enough..what matters more than the value of niño 3.4 (in a weak ENSO situation like this) is the longitudinal SST gradient (IE: the cool EPAC/warm WPAC configuration we’ll have this winter).

 

You can have two years with the exact same niño 3.4 values, but one can have a cool WPAC/retracted warm pool/warmer EPAC, and the other can have a warm WPAC/expanded warm pool/cooler EPAC. We’re trending towards the latter this winter, and years analogous to the former are unlikely to be predictive of the winter pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whenever I see the word WPAC it usually means you are predicting sh*t weather for us. Is sh*t your official Fall/Winter forecast Phil? ;)

Lol.

 

I honestly don’t know yet. Probably leaning drier than normal with a weaker jet but that could favor a colder outcome as well.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's certainly a good match in a number of ways (ENSO being the worst part of the match). 

 

Of course, can't stress enough that the current solar min and overall solar activity, including the past complete cycle, is much lower than it was in the 1980s.

 

With that in mind, weak ENSO and positive QBO, massive blocking and resultant major cold waves for the lower 48 and Europe seems inevitable.

 

The global temps were quite a bit lower at that point, though. I wouldn't bet on a coming stretch globally that's comparable to what we saw from 1984 to early 1986, especially with the La Nina and volcanic cooling in that stretch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The global temps were quite a bit lower at that point, though. I wouldn't bet on a coming stretch globally that's comparable to what we saw from 1984 to early 1986, especially with the La Nina and volcanic cooling in that stretch.

 

Eh, see 2008-2011. That had La Nina and El Nino, easily warmer temps than mid 1980s and no volcanic cooling. High latitude blocking galore and plenty of major cold outbreaks.

 

Ultimately, major blocking overcomes global temps for periods of time quite easily, at least for regions of the world. We certainly have seen that in recent history.

 

I never said we'd see plummeting global temps this winter, did I?

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eh, see 2008-2011. That had La Nina and El Nino, easily warmer temps than mid 1980s and no volcanic cooling. High latitude blocking galore and plenty of major cold outbreaks.

 

Ultimately, major blocking overcome global temps for periods of time quite easily, at least for regions of the world. We certainly have seen that in recent history.

 

I never said we'd see plummeting global temps this winter, did I?

 

Well we've also seen a fair amount of global warming since then, it would seem.

 

And the 1983-86 stretch was probably a bit more impressive than that one for cold, even with no major La Nina and much higher solar. So global temp baselines do make a difference.

 

Obviously last February proves we can still see top tier cold anomalies, but it's definitely more of an uphill battle and the frequency of such events is lessening. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well we've also seen a fair amount of global warming since then, it would seem.

 

And the 1983-86 stretch was probably a bit more impressive than that one for cold, even with no major La Nina and much higher solar. So global temp baselines do make a difference.

 

Obviously last February proves we can still see top tier cold anomalies, but it's definitely more of an uphill battle and the frequency of such events is lessening. 

 

Not as much as the mid 1980s to late 2000s.

 

A major La Nina cools global temps, sure, but is not more favorable for top tier winter cold outbreaks. Blocking is more important, and I'd bet a lot of money that we see big-time blocking this coming winter.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not as much as the mid 1980s to late 2000s.

 

A major La Nina cools global temps, sure, but is not more favorable for top tier winter cold outbreaks. Blocking is more important, and I'd bet a lot of money that we see big-time blocking this coming winter.

 

Assuming ENSO stays flat, I agree. I foresee a relatively front-loaded year for the West, since last year went all a**-backwards on us.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Assuming ENSO stays flat, I agree. I foresee a relatively front-loaded year for the West, since last year went all a**-backwards on us.

 

 

That would be sweet... hoping for the same thing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely calling for action for this winter now that there will be no niño and low solar. Very few duds in that category even for the south valley.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The CFS seems to take the subsurface/thermocline state at initialization and just run with it. Excessive coupling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The CFS seems to take the subsurface/thermocline state at initialization and just run with it. Excessive coupling. 

 

 

I would be surprised to see a Nina develop. Probably right around even.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Not science but an interesting take on the 2019/2020 winter from the Farmers Almanac for the NW. Lines up with what people have said here about a snowy winter. 

 

"The 2020 Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for frequent snow events—from flurries to no fewer than seven big snowstorms, including two in April for the Intermountain region west of the Rockies. This snow-verload will include storms pummeling Washington state and points eastward across the northern-tier states into Michigan. For the Northwest, this could mean a repeat of last winter’s Snowpocalypse that dumped 20.2 inches on Seattle in February."

 

screen-shot-2019-08-22-at-11.47.15-am.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not science but an interesting take on the 2019/2020 winter from the Farmers Almanac for the NW. Lines up with what people have said here about a snowy winter. 

 

"The 2020 Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for frequent snow events—from flurries to no fewer than seven big snowstorms, including two in April for the Intermountain region west of the Rockies. This snow-verload will include storms pummeling Washington state and points eastward across the northern-tier states into Michigan. For the Northwest, this could mean a repeat of last winter’s Snowpocalypse that dumped 20.2 inches on Seattle in February."

 

screen-shot-2019-08-22-at-11.47.15-am.jp

 

Very classic look for heavy snow in WA State.  Usually winters that are cold over the northern third of the Country from the Great Lakes westward are good snow makers for WA and northern OR.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Watch our, Western Oregon and Western Washington, it says it will be wet . . . OR WORSE!!!  

 

 

Its so rudimentary... almost child-like.      Completely meaningless.   Long-range forecasting is much more complicated and challenging.

 

Easy to dismiss when it shows something people don't like.   But seemingly embraced when it shows something good.     :rolleyes:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very classic look for heavy snow in WA State.  Usually winters that are cold over the northern third of the Country from the Great Lakes westward are good snow makers for WA and northern OR.

 

Showery for Southern California west of the mountains and the Arizona deserts. Coachella Valley is not only a desert, but it's also rain shadowed by the mountains.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Watch our, Western Oregon and Western Washington, it says it will be wet . . . OR WORSE!!!  

 

It shows the East side of Puget Sound being in the snow zone.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another potential point for forecasting this winter would be the consistently low SOI we are seeing despite the cooler than normal ENSO SST's now.  I'll have to look at that more closely.  I do know that 1949-50 was a La Nina winter that had little support from the SOI.

 

Given the recent introduction of major volcanic eruptions entering the mix I think the table is set for a wicked winter in the United States.  Many should get in on that.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We do realize the Farmer's Almanac forecast is like throwing darts at a board right? 

  • Like 5

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We do realize the Farmer's Almanac forecast is like throwing darts at a board right? 

 

Of course, but it's fun to see them predicting a big winter here for once.  The general theme of a big winter for the country in general has a high chance of verifying.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

PDX has had 4 consecutive winters with 1"+ snowfall, when was the last time they had 5? I need to look this up...

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My early thoughts

 

September: Warmer than average

October: near to slightly below normal temps.

November: Near normal, with a greater than usual chance of anomalously cooler weather late in the month.

December: Below average temps.

January: Slightly below average temps.

February: Warmer than average.  

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My early thoughts

 

September: Warmer than average

October: near to slightly below normal temps.

November: Near normal, with a greater than usual chance of anomalously cooler weather late in the month.

December: Below average temps.

January: Slightly below average temps.

February: Warmer than average.  

 

I think September will have a major transition to cool at some point.  I think I would also split the coldest part of the winter between Dec and Jan.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The only aspect I’m (somewhat) confident about right now is a drier than normal winter overall, or a background state that is of the meridional/weak jet type. I suppose a strong intraseasonal MJO/AAM cycle could wreak havoc on that prediction, but I have to lean dry right now.

 

Haven’t decided on temperatures yet..depends on a number of processes that have yet to fully evolve/tip their hand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The only aspect I’m (somewhat) confident about right now is a drier than normal winter overall, or a background state that is of the meridional/weak jet type. I suppose a strong intraseasonal MJO/AAM cycle could wreak havoc on that prediction, but I have to lean dry right now.

 

Haven’t decided on temperatures yet..depends on a number of processes that have yet to fully evolve/tip their hand.

 

Dry is certainly quite possible given the blocking will probably be insane.  I have a hard time imagining this winter being anything other than cold for the nation collectively.  Extreme low solar, cool ENSO, major volcanic eruptions going on, etc.  As for solar this is now a lock to be the deepest minimum since the Dalton.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dry is certainly quite possible given the blocking will probably be insane.  I have a hard time imagining this winter being anything other than cold for the nation collectively.  Extreme low solar, cool ENSO, major volcanic eruptions going on, etc.  As for solar this is now a lock to be the deepest minimum since the Dalton.

 

What major volcanic eruptions?

 

There hasn't been a VEI-5 eruption since 2011.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What major volcanic eruptions?

 

There hasn't been a VEI-5 eruption since 2011.

 

There was just one in Russia that sent a plume to 70,000 feet and there have been two others that also breached the stratosphere this year.  I saw a picture a few days ago from New Mexico that indicated aerosols in the stratosphere indicated by a purple tint at sunrise.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...