Fall and Winter 2019-20 Predictions and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

1937 to 1948 was pretty awful too, especially for Eugene. Only one >2" snow event in 11 years there.

 

And after that all hell broke loose.  Interesting how streaky things can be.  We are currently in a pretty favorable run actually.

[Phil]

Note the consistent westerlies beginning to establish over the warm pool, and the hefty WWB upcoming.

 

Frankly put, this is more of a pre-niño cell than anything else, given the where we with the OKW cycle.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Jesse]

Mega ridge incoming? ^

[Phil]

Mega ridge incoming? ^

I’m sure at some point in the future, on some particular week, in some particular season, in some particular year, there will indeed be a mega-ridge.

[Jesse]

I’m sure at some point in the future, on some particular week, in some particular season, in some particular year, there will indeed be a mega-ridge.

I guess we’ll never know, since you’re constantly throwing out all this gobbledygook but you never seem to find it prudent to mention how it might affect us. Despite this being a western weather forum.

[Phil]

I guess we’ll never know, since you’re constantly throwing out all this gobbledygook but you never seem to find it prudent to mention how it might affect us. Despite this being a western weather forum.

No single variable is solely responsible for another single variable in climate, and extrapolating any connection forward in time (especially when said connection involves entities operating on different frequencies like a ridge & stagnant tropical forcing) is a fools errand.

 

All I said was that +ENSO (whether warm neutral or El Niño) appears to be favored with time. Don’t read too heavily into it.

[GHweatherChris]

I guess we’ll never know, since you’re constantly throwing out all this gobbledygook but you never seem to find it prudent to mention how it might affect us. Despite this being a western weather forum.

Great point.

[Phil]

Great point.

It’s not my fault your reading comprehension skills are analogous to those of a 5th grader. Work through it.

[Jesse]

No single variable is solely responsible for another single variable in climate, and extrapolating any connection forward in time (especially when said connection involves entities operating on different frequencies like a ridge & stagnant tropical forcing) is a fools errand.

 

All I said was that +ENSO (whether warm neutral or El Niño) appears to be favored with time. Don’t read too heavily into it.

Yeah, but you barely even said that. Sure some people here might have low reading comprehension skills or whatever. But I think your communication skills could also use some work. I don’t consider myself to be scientifically illiterate by any stretch, but I still find many of your posts to be extremely hard to follow. Especially when it comes to getting any sort of meaningful “big picture” message out of them. It is what it is.

[snow_wizard]

Note the consistent westerlies beginning to establish over the warm pool, and the hefty WWB upcoming.

 

Frankly put, this is more of a pre-niño cell than anything else, given the where we with the OKW cycle.

 

 

ENSO is royally messed up this year.  Nino 1-2, 3, and 3.4 have all gone negative in spite of consistent negative SOI.  My theory is the warmth in the Western Pacific has simply been depleted by the mega Nino a few years ago and the one last winter.  Neutral ENSO is the most likely outcome this winter.

[GHweatherChris]

It’s not my fault your reading comprehension skills are analogous to those of a 5th grader. Work through it.

Lol, you so funny filip

[GHweatherChris]

It has zero to do with reading comprehension skills, just sayin...

[Phil]

Yeah, but you barely even said that. Sure some people here might have low reading comprehension skills or whatever. But I think your communication skills could also use some work. I don’t consider myself to be scientifically illiterate by any stretch, but I still find many of your posts to be extremely hard to follow. Especially when it comes to getting any sort of meaningful “big picture” message out of them. It is what it is.

Fair enough.

[GHweatherChris]

Richard was far easier to follow along with.

[Phil]

ENSO is royally messed up this year. Nino 1-2, 3, and 3.4 have all gone negative in spite of consistent negative SOI. My theory is the warmth in the Western Pacific has simply been depleted by the mega Nino a few years ago and the one last winter. Neutral ENSO is the most likely outcome this winter.

Keep in mind there is an area of very warm subsurface water propagating towards the warm pool/domain of KW inception in the WPAC. So you have to extrapolate this forward knowing there are already warm SSTs present across the WPAC along with a +IOD/+SIOD and +PMM, all of which, together, favors WPAC/dateline convection and future WWB activity.

 

So it’s hard to deny (IMO) that a trend towards +ENSO is heavily favored on the spectrum of probabilities.

 

[Phil]

But the Indo-Pacific (~120E) waters certainly have been “drained” of OHC over the last decade, where most years have below average SSTs/OHC there. FWIW, this is a signal that also shows up in the paleo data preceding every NH cold event since deglaciation, usually by a few decades. Pretty much a mandatory precursor signal.

[Anti Marine Layer]

In 2015, Hurricane Linda's remnant low hit Southern California bringing about 2 in a half inches of rain. There were no strong winds however. Even with all the rain temperatures were still almost 80 degrees. 

[OKwx2k4]

Keep in mind there is an area of very warm subsurface water propagating towards the warm pool/domain of KW inception in the WPAC. So you have to extrapolate this forward knowing there are already warm SSTs present across the WPAC along with a +IOD/+SIOD and +PMM, all of which, together, favors WPAC/dateline convection and future WWB activity.

 

So it’s hard to deny (IMO) that a trend towards +ENSO is heavily favored on the spectrum of probabilities.

 

Just shoot me already. Please.

All I read was Niño with a raging warm N.Pac. Yep, shoot me.

[Phil]

Just shoot me already. Please.

All I read was Niño with a raging warm N.Pac. Yep, shoot me.

Well I wouldn’t say niño yet (for this winter). But I suppose a weak west based/modoki type niño is a possibility.

 

Key is that warm subsurface waters will (probably) be building in the WPAC in the O/N/D period..and since we didn’t progress into a mod/strong niño this year, it will probably happen next year (Solar driven IPWP cycle tied to ENSO/MM tendencies).

 

Which would make 2021/22 the start of the next multiyear La Niña/-PDO/-PMM cycle.

[OKwx2k4]

Well I wouldn’t say niño yet (for this winter). But I suppose a weak west based/modoki type niño is a possibility.

 

Key is that warm subsurface waters will (probably) be building in the WPAC in the O/N/D period..and since we didn’t progress into a mod/strong niño this year, it will probably happen next year (Solar driven IPWP cycle tied to ENSO/MM tendencies).

 

Which would make 2021/22 the start of the next multiyear La Niña/-PDO/-PMM cycle.

Well, even without qualifying as a full Niño or Niña, the driver there is contrast. Or as its calculated, the Modoki scale, I guess. Hence likely the cause for the negative SOI. The temp profile (contrast between 1.2 and 3 3.4 and 4) shows like a too far west-based Niño unless that eastern side warms and mellows the contrast down a tad.

 

The waters warming so rapidly southwest of Mexico are an indicator, also, that it's going to be hard to keep a weak-mod Niño off the table for long.

 

In blunt English, it looks pretty sh!tty for anyone but the NE, Great Lakes and N. Central states unless we get the west coast ridge to stand up and teleconnect. If that happens, though, the west coast gets screwed.

[Omegaraptor]

Well I wouldn’t say niño yet (for this winter). But I suppose a weak west based/modoki type niño is a possibility.

 

Key is that warm subsurface waters will (probably) be building in the WPAC in the O/N/D period..and since we didn’t progress into a mod/strong niño this year, it will probably happen next year (Solar driven IPWP cycle tied to ENSO/MM tendencies).

 

Which would make 2021/22 the start of the next multiyear La Niña/-PDO/-PMM cycle.

 

So two more years of watching CA get record precipitation while we're lucky to make average precipitation?

[Phil]

So two more years of watching CA get record precipitation while we're lucky to make average precipitation?

Not necessarily. But I am anticipating a drier than average winter out there this go around (and I could be wrong..it’s early enough that there’s still wiggle room on this).

 

But if you get a lot of cold/snow this winter, who cares about getting a bunch of rain along with it? Would be pointless, right?

[Phil]

Well, even without qualifying as a full Niño or Niña, the driver there is contrast. Or as its calculated, the Modoki scale, I guess. Hence likely the cause for the negative SOI. The temp profile (contrast between 1.2 and 3 3.4 and 4) shows like a too far west-based Niño unless that eastern side warms and mellows the contrast down a tad.

 

The waters warming so rapidly southwest of Mexico are an indicator, also, that it's going to be hard to keep a weak-mod Niño off the table for long.

 

In blunt English, it looks pretty sh!tty for anyone but the NE, Great Lakes and N. Central states unless we get the west coast ridge to stand up and teleconnect. If that happens, though, the west coast gets screwed.

Good post. Yeah the E-W temperature gradient within/across the tropical Pacific is very important in setting up the Walker/Hadley system there.

[Jesse]

Not necessarily. But I am anticipating a drier than average winter out there this go around (and I could be wrong..it’s early enough that there’s still wiggle room on this).

 

But if you get a lot of cold/snow this winter, who cares about getting a bunch of rain along with it? Would be pointless, right?

Many of us think rainy storms are fun too, Tim. Plus a good valley rain/mountain snow pattern at times is beneficial for a lot of reasons.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Dorian dropped the sea surface temperatures by quite a bit.

 

[Phil]

Many of us think rainy storms are fun too, Tim.

In the middle of winter? Blah, that’s the worst possible time for cold rain. Just wasting snowfall climo time.

 

Cold rain is meant for autumn and spring (and summer if you’re lucky).

[Jesse]

In the middle of winter? Blah, that’s the worst possible time for cold rain. Just wasting snowfall climo time.

 

Cold rain is meant for autumn and spring (and summer if you’re lucky).

 

Ah, I get it. This isn't a real discussion.

[Phil]

Ah, I get it. This isn't a real discussion.

It’s half real. I do hate 33*F rain with a passion (in winter) because it could be snow. I’d prefer 50*F rain. I think.

 

On a serious note, anyone who roots for rain over snow needs to be thrown in a mental institution. The end.

[Jesse]

It’s half real. I do hate 33*F rain with a passion (in winter) because it could be snow. I’d prefer 50*F rain. I think.

 

On a serious note, anyone who roots for rain over snow needs to be thrown in a mental institution. The end.

Well it wouldn’t be very reasonable to expect nothing but snow here all winter. I can assure you that all of our coldest and snowiest winters on record had lots of cold rain as well. And I’m ok with that, because its part of the winter package around here, even during the greats. Plus it’s fun to be able to visit feet of powder just an hour away in the mountains even when there’s nothing in the lowlands.

 

I don’t think anyone said they would prefer rain to snow when given the choice, though.

[Phil]

In other words, with +PMM/modoki type forcing, avoid analogs that lean -ENSO irrespective of the niño 3.4 number. (Doesn’t mean winter cancel).

 

[OKwx2k4]

In other words, with +PMM/modoki type forcing, avoid analogs that lean -ENSO irrespective of the niño 3.4 number. (Doesn’t mean winter cancel).

 

That's the scientific way of saying what I was saying yesterday. Perfect timing.

October or November should at least be pretty cold over much of the US.

[Phil]

That's the scientific way of saying what I was saying yesterday. Perfect timing.

October or November should at least be pretty cold over much of the US.

Oooh yeah, it’s gonna start early and hard, me thinks. Or at the very least it will put forth an A+ effort.

[OKwx2k4]

Oooh yeah, it’s gonna start early and hard, me thinks. Or at the very least it will put forth an A+ effort.

Then in that case, I'll suffer through the brutal September heat for the next 20 days. I've had that thought for a long time but these giant central CONUS ridges have me worried.

[Phil]

Then in that case, I'll suffer through the brutal September heat for the next 20 days. I've had that thought for a long time but these giant central CONUS ridges have me worried.

Right there with ya brother. Should hit 95 degrees again here today. Insects still screaming in the trees. Blech.

[BhamMe]

The weather folks at KOMO 4 in Seattle, posted this today. 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/noaa-odds-of-el-nino-less-winter-increase

 

NOAA: Odds of El Niño-less winter increase

 

SEATTLE -- 2019's version of El Niño officially died last month, and now forecasters say the odds of it potentially coming back for this fall and/or winter are even less than they were then.

The Climate Prediction Center now gives a 75% chance that we will stay in neutral conditions -- essentially meaning near-normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean -- through the fall, with around a 55-60% chance we'll stay that way through the winter.

El Niño now has just under a 30% chance of returning, with odds of a flip to the cooler La Niña conditions hanging around 13-14%.

Neutral winters are challenging in the sense that they don't present any steady historical patterns of which to base a good long range forecast like El Niño (warm/dry) and La Niña (cool/wet).

Historically speaking, neutral years tend to bring more frequent strong flooding events. Neutral years have a good news/bad news relationship with windstorms as strong wind events tend to be most frequent in La Niña years for most spots, but neutral years tend to have the strongest storms.

For those eager to hear about lowland snow, neutral years don't really provide much of a clue as past neutral winters have run the gamut. If the new Blob sticks around, that would hurt snow chances but the Old Farmer's Almanac says look out, snow. So... lots of ways that could go. Mountain snowpack also tends to range quite a bit but we would expect it to be within 20 percent either above or below normal.

[luminen]

As shown by the amazing winter of 2016-2017 (at least in Vancouver), the blob has no bearing on snowfall and cold. There's no reason that Seattle and Portland can't see a similar winter.

 

I also think the AEI is a load of poppycock. Time will tell though!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

As shown by the amazing winter of 2016-2017 (at least in Vancouver), the blob has no bearing on snowfall and cold. There's no reason that Seattle and Portland can't see a similar winter.

 

I also think the AEI is a load of poppycock. Time will tell though!

16-17 was also great down here in PDX. I wouldn't mind a repeat of that. Cold and snowy/icy in Dec/Jan and not having to wait until Feb.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

As shown by the amazing winter of 2016-2017 (at least in Vancouver), the blob has no bearing on snowfall and cold. There's no reason that Seattle and Portland can't see a similar winter.

 

I also think the AEI is a load of poppycock. Time will tell though!

The blob had dissipated by October 2016, and hopefully will this Fall too.

 

[ShawniganLake]

The blob had dissipated by October 2016, and hopefully will this Fall too.

 

animation-11.gif

Do you have a link for those archived maps?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/27/the-blob-has-dissipated/