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Fall and Winter 2019-20 Predictions and Discussion


Omegaraptor

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The blob had dissipated by October 2016, and hopefully will this Fall too.

 

attachicon.gifanimation-11.gif

 

This new weather pattern featuring anomalous high pressure over the NE Pacific should rapidly dissipate the blob.  I'm not worried about it at all.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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As shown by the amazing winter of 2016-2017 (at least in Vancouver), the blob has no bearing on snowfall and cold. There's no reason that Seattle and Portland can't see a similar winter.

 

I also think the AEI is a load of poppycock. Time will tell though!

And the winter where the blob was so warm, it did have a big affect on the temperatures and snow.  Where I live, many times that winter the forecast was for snow, but instead we had 34-35 degrees rain or mixed rain and snow, and it seems every day the weather was warmer by several degrees than forecast.  The forecasters at the NWS in Spokane remarked many times how systems were warmer than the models were showing and that they would have expected based on their experience, and they mentioned the "blob" was the cause.

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And the winter where the blob was so warm, it did have a big affect on the temperatures and snow.  Where I live, many times that winter the forecast was for snow, but instead we had 34-35 degrees rain or mixed rain and snow, and it seems every day the weather was warmer by several degrees than forecast.  The forecasters at the NWS in Spokane remarked many times how systems were warmer than the models were showing and that they would have expected based on their experience, and they mentioned the "blob" was the cause.

 

The blob will be a non factor this winter or will be gone altogether.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Cliff Mass calling for basically a neutral "situation" for this winter with the next 46 days being wetter and slightly warmer than normal through November 1, thanks in part to the "blob" that appears to be dissipating. 

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-weather-outlook-for-rest-of-fall.html

 

Didn't he call for the Feb snowstorms to be underwhelming, too?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Did he do that last Feb?

I thought I remember us giving him shitt for it? It was pretty crazy when there was a point in early Feb when an entire page of 50 posts would happen in like 10 mins or less.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Things re looking great at this point.  An incredilbe solar min is in progress, ENSO is fine, a nice early season cold snap is the works, among other good signs.  Should be a fun winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I can't put much faith in his forecast as long as he continues to think the blob has significance on winter 500 mb patterns.

Apparently he also thinks that rain is the #1 tree killer around here, although I haven’t been able to locate that blog post yet.

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Apparently he also thinks that rain is the #1 tree killer around here, although I haven’t been able to locate that blog post yet.

He had a post about a tree in the UW campus that had died. The Seattle Times blamed it on global warming. Mass pointed out that the temperature trends on the UW campus showed no warming during the Summer during the time the tree was at the U, though there was some warming during winter. It was a tree native to the SE U.S. and required a lot of water during Summer. It rains there a lot during the Summer as everyone knows. The UW did not water it during Summer, so it died. Native trees here are used to dry Summers, but trees native to the SE U.S. are used to very wet Summers. Cliff got a lot of hate mail and threats over that column, but he was right.

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I can't put much faith in his forecast as long as he continues to think the blob has significance on winter 500 mb patterns.

I dont think he or the other mets said it changed the 500mb pattern. They said that it warmed systems that came into the PNW. I live in snow country, and I am convinced they were right. The mets at the Spokane NWS repeatedly pointed out that the systems coming in were warmer than the models were showing, and warmer than what the pattern would indicate. They have a lot of experience with pattern recognition and these systems should have produced snow but did not. Temps were consistently a few degrees warmer than modeled and forecast. Made a difference in marginal snow situations.

 

The next year the same patterns did produce snow and cooler weather, since the blob was gone, and we have had normal or a bit above normal snowfall ever since.

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He had a post about a tree in the UW campus that had died. The Seattle Times blamed it on global warming. Mass pointed out that the temperature trends on the UW campus showed no warming during the Summer during the time the tree was at the U, though there was some warming during winter. It was a tree native to the SE U.S. and required a lot of water during Summer. It rains there a lot during the Summer as everyone knows. The UW did not water it during Summer, so it died. Native trees here are used to dry Summers, but trees native to the SE U.S. are used to very wet Summers. Cliff got a lot of hate mail and threats over that column, but he was right.

 

Good story. I'm missing the part about rain killing more native trees than drought, though. That was the claim that was made earlier.

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Good story. I'm missing the part about rain killing more native trees than drought, though. That was the claim that was made earlier.

He didnt get into details about that. I think it was a tree native to the SE, but I could be wrong. He did say that it was a non native tree that they did not water. Dr. Mass does believe in AGW, but thinks there is a lot of sensationalism by the media and politicians that is just plain wrong.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/05/seattle-times-climate-change-article-is.html?m=1

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He didnt get into details about that. I think it was a tree native to the SE, but I could be wrong. He did say that it was a non native tree that they did not water. Dr. Mass does believe in AGW, but thinks there is a lot of sensationalism by the media and politicians that is just plain wrong.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/05/seattle-times-climate-change-article-is.html?m=1

The non-native tree from the southeast was killed by our dry summers, yes.

 

I was told of a blog post in which he talks about how more of our native trees are killed by rain than drought, on average, though. Can’t seem to find that one.

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He didnt get into details about that. I think it was a tree native to the SE, but I could be wrong. He did say that it was a non native tree that they did not water. Dr. Mass does believe in AGW, but thinks there is a lot of sensationalism by the media and politicians that is just plain wrong.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/05/seattle-times-climate-change-article-is.html?m=1

Cliff Mass also outlines what is now a terminal virus of groupthink and politicization permeating the physical sciences. Increasingly, facts and data are ignored or even suppressed in favor of safe, morally “correct” perspectives, and scientists who don’t fall into line are booted from the cliquey club of intellectual elitists.

 

Generally, people only resort to pressuring/threatening people into staying “on message” when they’re afraid of dissenting opinions. If you have a strong argument to make, void of ulterior motives, you don’t fear dissent.

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Cliff Mass gets a lot of heat around here, and I do think he occasionally grinds an axe a little too hard, but I admire how he has had the balls to challenge both the media and "intellectual elite" as Phil put it.

 

He's a scientist who isn't afraid to go out on a limb or express his (usually) level headed opinion.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Is 1977-78 a possible analog for 19-20?

 

Neutral to weak +ENSO, neutral PDO, close to solar min. Seems to line up pretty well. November got 7.5" of snow at PDX, but it quickly melted and no more snow fell that winter, although January started with a 33/23 day followed by two 33/24 days so it's not like the potential wasn't there. However that January cold shot seemed to have been Portland-centric.

 

Didn't seem to be as good in Seattle and Eugene, however.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Here it is guys.

 

November: 

Temps: Near Average

Precip: Slightly below average

Snowfall/pack: No lowland snow south of Everett, slight chance north. Snow pack average to below.

 

December

Temps: Well above average

Precip: Near normal to slightly above.

Snowfall/pack: Slight chance late month south of Olympia, 30-40% odds of accumulating snow late month north of Olympia. Snow pack near to below average. 

 

January

Temps: Near average/slightly above. Wildcare with temps is a stronger than normal chance of an inversion pattern early in the month. Slight chance of modified arctic air early in the month. 

Precip: Near normal

Snowfall/pack: 50/50 odds of minor snowfall early in the month Seattle north. Slight chance of accumulating snow south of Seattle early in the month. Snow pack below average.

 

February

Temps: Well above average

Precip: Below average

Snowfall/pack: No lowland snow, well below normal mountain snow pack. 

 

Overall
Temps: Temps will be above normal for the late November-February period. Potentially the warmest winter since 2014-15. Odds are we go another winter without a major regional outbreak, though at least a modified outbreak in the early January timeframe, or even a short duration regional blast would not entirely surprise me. 

Precip: A greater than even chance precip is below normal to near normal during the period.

Snowfall/snow pack: I would give better than even odds there is no accumulating snow south of Portland. About even odds that PDX has a minor snow event, and about 70% odds Seattle at least sees one minor accumulation. Best odds in the PNW lowlands are in the NW interior as a January 2005 type event is definitely not out of the question. Mountain snow pack will likely disappoint. 

 

BLI: 6"
Sea: 3"

PDX: 1.5"

SLE: 0

EUG: 0

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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What was your methodology for your prediction?

 

I considered years like 85-86, 71-72 specifically, but ultimately I think we will diverge from those paths. 77-78 may be an possible anolog. My primaries are 2004-05, 2012-13, 1969-70. I really like the 1969-70 analog. That would be a wetter year. 

 

My secondary analogs would probably be 1959-60, 1980-81, 1977-78, 1985-86.

 

I'm not a huge believer in considering solar.

 

I think Pete Parsons at the Oregon Department of Agriculture has some good analogs, I would say I used somewhat similar methodology.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I considered years like 85-86, 71-72 specifically, but ultimately I think we will diverge from those paths. 77-78 may be an possible anolog. My primaries are 2004-05, 2012-13, 1969-70. I really like the 1969-70 analog. That would be a wetter year. 

 

My secondary analogs would probably be 1959-60, 1980-81, 1977-78, 1985-86.

 

I'm not a huge believer in considering solar.

 

I think Pete Parsons at the Oregon Department of Agriculture has some good analogs, I would say I used somewhat similar methodology.

 

I'm curious as to why this is.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Now if we could get this to happen...

 

72722224_2685618518169360_74318563434991

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm curious as to why this is.

 

I just don't see a huge correlation, I think it's more one of those things where you see what you want to see when you look at it. Maybe this winter will make me a believer. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I just don't see a huge correlation, I think it's more one of those things where you see what you want to see when you look at it. Maybe this winter will make me a believer. 

 

Have you not seen the 500mb NH anomaly maps I've posted for solar min winters? Or read any of the literature regarding the relationship between low solar and NH blocking?

 

It's definitely not fully understood, but the correlation is fairly evident.

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Have you not seen the 500mb NH anomaly maps I've posted for solar min winters? Or read any of the literature regarding the relationship between low solar and NH blocking?

 

It's definitely not fully understood, but the correlation is fairly evident.

 

Your taking the bait.

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Your taking the bait.

 

I am interested to hear your thoughts on the upcoming winter. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I am interested to hear your thoughts on the upcoming winter. 

 

 

Does it matter what any of us think will happen?

 

Nature is not going to follow anything we predict.    Might do the opposite.

 

Should be a blocky winter... that is all I know.   Devil will be in the details and its truly impossible to know those details at this time.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think he's being honest.

 

I am. I accept other people can come to different conclusions or feel I am showing my ignorance, but these are my real thoughts. I do think there is a great deal of uncertainty, but I have always enjoyed making predictions and these are mine. Weather is a hobby for me, one of many interests. I thought last winter would be front loaded, I was wrong, I did pretty well in 2017-18 with my forecasts, you win some you lose some. But it is fun to put something out there and see how it fares. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I am interested to hear your thoughts on the upcoming winter.

So is Umadbro. So I better get on it.

 

Right now we seem to be set up pretty well for some early season action in November or December. Beyond that, who knows. If November or December ends up ridgy or warmer than expected there’s a chance winter will try to make a comeback in January but it’s hard telling not knowing. Then probably a better than bad chance of the warmest February in a couple years.

 

Probably a drier than average winter for most of the region if the blockiness keeps up, mountain snowpack could be near average though if the balance of the storms end up colder than usual. We’re certainly off to a good start!

 

That’s my shooting from the hip winter forecast. Oh and I used some of Steve Pierce’s methodology which is quite good if you look into it!

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The thing with solar is there’s both physical and statistical evidence to suggest it affects blocking/wavetrains and even ENSO/tropical convection via a direct manipulation of static stability across the deep tropics.

 

Problem is, that effect could vary significantly depending on initial boundary conditions. So the nature/structure of the high latitude blocking might not be the same from one solar minimum to the next.

 

For instance, the effect of the 11yr solar cycle in the 1950s/60s was certainly not the same as it is now. But it was clearly detectable (statistically and possibly dynamically upon reconstruction) via numerous parameters.

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Rough idea from now through the first half of winter.

 

- November (2nd half) and January are the months with the highest likelihood of productive patterns for arctic cold and lowland snow, in my opinion. December probably has the least likelyhood of producing a favorable pattern for the West. Not sure about February yet..could go either way.

 

- Likely a +ENSO winter, either warm neutral or weak modoki niño, but whether it meets that official definition or not is largely irrelevant.

 

- A legit MJO event should gather in the IO around/just after Halloween (after the -SAM peaks) and cross the IPWP/Pacific during 2nd/3rd week of November. Watch for an Alaskan wavebreak around November 12th-18th culminating in an Arctic outbreak for much of the West-Central US. Whether it affects the PNW remains to be seen, of course, but it could be a legit blast.

 

- December looks like a more -EPO dominant version of 2009, IMO, with cold mostly focused in the East with a +PNA/western ridge for much of the month. More subsidence over the Maritime Continent and coinciding EAMT event like recently, but with the seasonal changes the response will probably be more niño-ish.

 

- January is when things get interesting. Less certain at this range, but there are conduits to a retrogression and legitimate -PNA/-EPO pattern and Arctic outbreak with a huge mass of cold likely residing on our side of the pole initially thanks to the dominating -EPO/torques. If intraseasonal forcings can overpower the background state (might need some stratospheric help)...watch out.

 

- Not sure about February yet. I could see it going either way but I’ll lean to the colder side for now.

FWIW, that blocking episode will probably start closer to November 18th than November 12th. Slower intraseasonal recycle has been the theme these year.

 

Precursory MJO wave looks on target so far.

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Here it is guys.

 

November:

Temps: Near Average

Precip: Slightly below average

Snowfall/pack: No lowland snow south of Everett, slight chance north. Snow pack average to below.

 

December

Temps: Well above average

Precip: Near normal to slightly above.

Snowfall/pack: Slight chance late month south of Olympia, 30-40% odds of accumulating snow late month north of Olympia. Snow pack near to below average.

 

January

Temps: Near average/slightly above. Wildcare with temps is a stronger than normal chance of an inversion pattern early in the month. Slight chance of modified arctic air early in the month.

Precip: Near normal

Snowfall/pack: 50/50 odds of minor snowfall early in the month Seattle north. Slight chance of accumulating snow south of Seattle early in the month. Snow pack below average.

 

February

Temps: Well above average

Precip: Below average

Snowfall/pack: No lowland snow, well below normal mountain snow pack.

 

Overall

Temps: Temps will be above normal for the late November-February period. Potentially the warmest winter since 2014-15. Odds are we go another winter without a major regional outbreak, though at least a modified outbreak in the early January timeframe, or even a short duration regional blast would not entirely surprise me.

Precip: A greater than even chance precip is below normal to near normal during the period.

Snowfall/snow pack: I would give better than even odds there is no accumulating snow south of Portland. About even odds that PDX has a minor snow event, and about 70% odds Seattle at least sees one minor accumulation. Best odds in the PNW lowlands are in the NW interior as a January 2005 type event is definitely not out of the question. Mountain snow pack will likely disappoint.

 

BLI: 6"

Sea: 3"

PDX: 1.5"

SLE: 0

EUG: 0

Surprised how bearish you went.

 

With all the “OMG NINO” flack I get, your forecast is much warmer than mine, lol.

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The thing with solar is there’s both physical and statistical evidence to suggest it affects blocking/wavetrains and even ENSO/tropical convection via a direct manipulation of static stability across the deep tropics.

 

Problem is, that effect could vary significantly depending on initial boundary conditions. So the nature/structure of the high latitude blocking might not be the same from one solar minimum to the next.

 

For instance, the effect of the 11yr solar cycle in the 1950s/60s was certainly not the same as it is now. But it was clearly detectable (statistically and possibly dynamically upon reconstruction) via numerous parameters.

I think it's worth mentioning the overall solar activity was also significantly higher in the 1950s/1960s.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Here are my thoughts going forward.

 

- Much greater -AO/-NAO than last winter

- North Pacific blocking regime we have seen this fall should continue to be dominant, though it will shift more over Western Canada at times, especially mid January on

- eastern 1/3 of the country will be much colder Jan-Mar this winter

- November should see cold centered over the central part of the country

- Early December to early January is best window for major cold/snow events in PNW

- Highly elevated chance of top tier cold across the entire US, due to persistent and strong high latitude blocking, weak jet

- Precipitation is highly unpredictable, but the west coast should see extended dry periods punctuated by heavy rain/snow events and strong storms

- First half of winter should tend more -PNA, second half more +PNA

- This will be an anomalously snowy winter for many regions

- Overall, it would not surprise me if 2019-20 is a top 5 coldest winter for the past 50+ years in the US

- That being said, extreme swings in temperature will be common, especially for the middle of the country and southern sections

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A forum for the end of the world.

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