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2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion


Tom

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You can easily see where that trough is situated towards the central part of the country. Also, I cannot recall when the last time I saw these maps from NOAA....total shocking!

 

;) Yep, now if we can just keep this as the dominant theme of the winter. WxBell's August winter outlook leaned that way, noting that there would be good chances of storms west to the Plains, and east to New England but the Midwest/Lakes/OHV would be the default "zone of action". Haven't seen an update from them yet to see if they are standing pat or doubling down or shifting things around? Most will say it doesn't matter, but I think LR forecasting is fascinating and especially for winter. My fam had zero to do with farming, yet as a young person I'd buy those almanacs just to see if one was calling for a snowy winter for my region  :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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As they become are posted I like to toss up the winter outlooks from time to time. The one from John Dee just came out today and here it is.

 

http://johndee.com/seasonalfcst/2019-20/seasonalforecast.htm

 

Dee's focus traditionally was so imby that I never got much from his outlooks. I will note that he's NOT going with a BN winter for our region while many are, to the point of possible historic cold. Will be interesting to see how things end up. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I don't recall last year having leaves fall off trees this quickly like this year. :blink:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The inch of snow we got certainly coaxed a few more leaves to take the plunge today.

By next week my area is mostly bare, if not all

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Ice recovery

 

The #Svalbard #seaice area from the ice chart for 1st Nov 2019 is 308,025 sq km. This is 12,698 sq km above the 1981-2010 average. #Arctic

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

From that link Niko posted, Chicago's top (11) snowy winters include so many analogs to this coming season, how can you not be giddy at the potential?? (so crazy that the top 2 were back-to-back).

 

20191102 Chicago Top 11 Snowy Winters.PNG

 

Got odds on breaking into that list??  :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yes it does. Perfect right now.

I see a concern that may emerge across the eastern equatorial PAC as there has been a growing warm blob of waters pushing east towards South America and may surface sometime this month or into December.  This may prompt an environment for a ridge in the east & south.

 

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

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As we experience the depths of the Solar Minimum, I had a pre-season gut feeling that there would be some rather fascinating developments this year in the Stratosphere. The Southern Hemisphere certainly showcased an interesting Winter and quite the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event over Antarctica. IMO, this is a big clue for our hemispheres Winter months ahead.

 

Interestingly, the GEFS model is suggesting record or near record strong Polar Vortex to develop within the next week or so but then decelerate rather quickly. The graphic below shows the spike in strength during the week of the 11th.

 

EIX8GSMWkAAjrxw.jpg

 

 

 

 

While the Polar Vortex does strengthen, the alignment of the PV is the biggest factor here for the North American pattern and the lower 48. If you look out over the next 2 weeks, there are multiple warming events across Russia/Siberia that will perturb or disrupt the PV. In fact, the GEFS are suggesting the seasons strongest event to develop later in Week 2. The location of these warming events are the biggest factor and clue what nature is likely trying to tell us. I took a glance this morning at the CFS model and it is forecasting displaced PV during the month of December with a strategically placed SSW in the same areas of Russia/Siberia that our current warming is taking place. Are we going to see an abrupt warming event in December??? This would be very interesting and fascinating. This is highly unusual so early in the season and Judah Cohen even wrote about this in his weekly blog. A strong warming event in December is very rare to see. Let's see how this all unfolds but the clues may have already begun and there could be unprecedented times ahead.

 

 

 

temp10anim.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

cfs-mon_01_Tz10_nhem_1.png

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I see a concern that may emerge across the eastern equatorial PAC as there has been a growing warm blob of waters pushing east towards South America and may surface sometime this month or into December. This may prompt an environment for a ridge in the east & south.

 

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

This is true. Gotta keep an eye on it. My hope is just that it adds to deepening the lows within the southern branch.

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This is true. Gotta keep an eye on it. My hope is just that it adds to deepening the lows within the southern branch.

 

Haha, had the same thought. If the cold is as severe as it seems to be so far, warmth to the east/SE could really be like gas poured on a campfire wrt storms deepening. Another Christmas 2009 in the making?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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After I wrote the above post commenting on the peculiar developments in the Stratosphere, later that day Judah Cohen had this to say...

 

 

Nothing gets me as excited or pumped as seeing in my morning inbox the polar cap geopotential heights pulsating red/warm in the mid-lower troposphere! For now an outlier but needs to be watched. #winteriscoming

 

EIdS0G7XUAAgK6B.jpg

 

 

Last nights data off the 00z GEFS is not backing down that a possible early season SSW event may be in the cards.  If this is strong enough, it should kick off the month of December on a rockin' start.  Could be finally flip the script on the warm Decembers of late?  I think so.  Let's see how this unfolds.  

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First off if anyone is wondering if a cold and snowy November leads to a cold and snowy winter. Well no two seasons are alike, but if you like analog years and like a lot of cold and snow looking at 1991 may not be one you would want to use for this year. That year early November was very cold and snowy. On November 3rd Grand Rapids had 10.4” of snow. The high on that day was just 23. For the month there were 5 days that did not get out of the 20’s and the low for that month was 14. For the month as a whole the mean was 35.7°and that is -4.4 The cold was mostly before the 15th of the month and on the 19th the temperature reached 67 and of course the snow was all gone. It reached 60 again on the 30th. It did turn cold and snowy for a week in December and during that time a good amount of that December’s 27.9” of snow fell but before Christmas it was all gone.  January was mild with just 13.4” of snow at Grand Rapids. And February was also mild with just 3.5” of snow fall. I am just letting every one know that a cold and snowy November may not lead to a cold and snowy winter.

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First off if anyone is wondering if a cold and snowy November leads to a cold and snowy winter. Well no two seasons are alike, but if you like analog years and like a lot of cold and snow looking at 1991 may not be one you would want to use for this year. That year early November was very cold and snowy. On November 3rd Grand Rapids had 10.4” of snow. The high on that day was just 23. For the month there were 5 days that did not get out of the 20’s and the low for that month was 14. For the month as a whole the mean was 35.7°and that is -4.4 The cold was mostly before the 15th of the month and on the 19th the temperature reached 67 and of course the snow was all gone. It reached 60 again on the 30th. It did turn cold and snowy for a week in December and during that time a good amount of that December’s 27.9” of snow fell but before Christmas it was all gone.  January was mild with just 13.4” of snow at Grand Rapids. And February was also mild with just 3.5” of snow fall. I am just letting every one know that a cold and snowy November may not lead to a cold and snowy winter.

 

Somebody on another forum posted some stats on coldest early Novembers (for OH iirc) and the following winters were about evenly split between duds and historic cold-n-snowy. Neither a cold October nor November is a strong indicator of the winter ahead (unfortunately). So it remains we have to look to other indicators to help get a clearer picture of what to expect. To this point, most of those have been leaning towards a favorable outcome. While the east coast may have the slogan "what happens in December, the winter remembers", the same wouldn't be true further west as we're deeper into the season by then. Besides, lately patterns most years have suffered from total case of bi-polar-ism (pun intended). One month frigid (last Nov) followed by December's complete no-show!  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I personally dont remember when an early start was a good thing for winters over here, I am sure there were a few, but as of late cold Octobers and Novembers sure seem to lead to duds farther down the line here.

I agree!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I personally dont remember when an early start was a good thing for winters over here, I am sure there were a few, but as of late cold Octobers and Novembers sure seem to lead to duds farther down the line here.

 

Going off memory, good early-starters most recent on backwards = 2013, 2009, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1995...

 

Some (Detroit/TOL) would include 2002 maybe in place of one of the others listed. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Some winter snow forecast links from Robert Felix. Pretty doggone amazing for early November, wouldn't you say?

 

12 feet of snow for SW Greenland; 7 ft Andes; 7 ft Gulf of Alaska; 5 ft Kamchatka; 5 ft Pyrenees Mtns; 5 ft Pakistan; 4 ft on the Alps.

 

Who was it that said children wouldn’t ever again get to see snow?

 

10 day forecast :

 

5 feet of snow, Pyrenees Mtns

https://www.windy.com/42.862/-0.536?snowAccu,42.937,0.330,9

 

4 feet on the Alps:

https://www.windy.com/45.951/7.927?snowAccu,45.539,7.185,8

 

12 feet SW Greenland:

https://www.windy.com/63.889/-41.056?snowAccu,63.295,-37.332,7

 

7 feet Andes :

https://www.windy.com/-49.817/-73.586?snowAccu,-50.969,-67.720,7

 

7 feet Gulf of Alaska

https://www.windy.com/60.229/-139.471?snowAccu,59.319,-138.724,7

 

5 feet Kamchatka

https://www.windy.com/52.585/158.036?snowAccu,52.794,159.104,

 

5 feet Pakistan

https://www.windy.com/33.569/74.707?snowAccu,33.509,80.519,7

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Neat maps /\ 

 

Many feel 2013-14 is the best analog for the coming winter. Others around SEMI think there will never be another like it in their lifetime! January 2014 was such a rarity, Hell had deeper snow than Marquette. There's all the proof you need that we're chasing craziness  :lol:

 

20140107 Post PV Bliz Depths.PNG

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ gimmesnow

 

Little Switz in mke is turning their lifts this weekend, Tyrol Basin in Madison opened their terrain park last weekend, Lutsen is already open, almost a lock alpine valley will open next weekend, no problem making snow in this environment, granite peak in wausau opens next weekend. The area ski hills have had record late seasons with the lingering cold into spring the past few seasons, now getting open about as early as possible this season - should be another good year for snow sports enthusiasts.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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There are growing signs in the LR that the idea of an early SSW may be in the works and I'll show you what I'm seeing that may lead to this very rare event if it should happen.  After reading a tweet from @ Michael Vintrice, his model illustrated a graphic that paints a picture across the N PAC which would result in a disruption of the Polar Vortex later this month.  This lines up with what the models are showing late in Week 2 per the GEFS/GEPS maps below right around the 11/22 period where major warming is being suggested across Siberia/Russia.

 

 

 

 

 

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Seeing a favorable Siberia-Aleutian pattern emerge in 1-2 weeks that supports upward wave flux into the stratosphere. This will likely result in a "Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event" during December. No telling whether this event is minor or major at these leads.

 

 

 

EIs8Hq4XUAA6G9N.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_31.png

 

gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_31.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some of the individual op runs of the GFS are eye popping and this may lead us into unprecedented times heading into December...

 

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_32.png

 

 

Given the ongoing pattern that is evolving in the Stratosphere as we speak, I am not surprised the models are dialing in on this potential SSW event later this month.  We could be looking for Severe winter weather conditions in the mid latitudes right around the middle of December.  I'm telling ya, this winter is lining up to being spectacular and sensational.  Truly, a "Legendary" season I've been strongly suggesting it can become.

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There are growing signs in the LR that the idea of an early SSW may be in the works and I'll show you what I'm seeing that may lead to this very rare event if it should happen.  After reading a tweet from @ Michael Vintrice, his model illustrated a graphic that paints a picture across the N PAC which would result in a disruption of the Polar Vortex later this month.  This lines up with what the models are showing late in Week 2 per the GEFS/GEPS maps below right around the 11/22 period where major warming is being suggested across Siberia/Russia.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIs8Hq4XUAA6G9N.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_31.png

 

gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_31.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some of the individual op runs of the GFS are eye popping and this may lead us into unprecedented times heading into December...

 

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_32.png

 

 

Given the ongoing pattern that is evolving in the Stratosphere as we speak, I am not surprised the models are dialing in on this potential SSW event later this month.  We could be looking for Severe winter weather conditions in the mid latitudes right around the middle of December.  I'm telling ya, this winter is lining up to being spectacular and sensational.  Truly, a "Legendary" season I've been strongly suggesting it can become.

 

Normally we are sitting in a warm regime boring pacific air pattern hoping for an SSW to "rescue winter" and deliver the cold that's lacking. But right now, we're already on the threshold of historic records without an SSW. Do we really need this Tom? What would the impacts be? Could it push cold so far south that Florida and Mexico are getting storms while we just shiver? Legit concerns here. What's your gut feeling, what with this being such a rarity. Is there an analog event somewhere in the past you're aware of?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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PP on Accuweather today literally said that this 500MB setup early next week may be similar to what we are looking at for the Winter-- Classic -EPO.

Screenshot_2019-11-07 AccuWeather com® Professional - News Blogs.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Normally we are sitting in a warm regime boring pacific air pattern hoping for an SSW to "rescue winter" and deliver the cold that's lacking. But right now, we're already on the threshold of historic records without an SSW. Do we really need this Tom? What would the impacts be? Could it push cold so far south that Florida and Mexico are getting storms while we just shiver? Legit concerns here. What's your gut feeling, what with this being such a rarity. Is there an analog event somewhere in the past you're aware of?

I think the average person would say we don't need a SSW event to aid in the development of more cold into the North American pattern that has been evolving thus far.  In seasons past, we would need some sort of cattle prod to kick off an event to start a cold pattern but this season we obviously have not needed any "help" from Siberia as "we", North America, have easily "brewed" up our own cold air and have not need help from the "Siberian Express".  On the other hand, if we do see a SSW event it will only add farther into the entire scope of the Hemispheric pattern which is creating a prime setup for cold air to keep delivering into North America.  In all honesty, this may be one of those seasons where we keep hearing "the pattern just keeps on delivering".  Will there be suppression?  Yes, I full anticipate it and I am mindful of it esp as we get deeper into the season.  Come Jan/Feb I am fully expecting to see Historic cold to hit the Gulf Coast and snows flying in the deep south.  What happened in Oct and what is about to happen next week will cycle through in future cycles and this nation is going to be under an Ice Box in early 2020.

 

I have not dug up any analogs of this season in terms of SSW events, but I'm sure we will read more about this in Judah Cohen's blogs.  I'm really curious to hear what he has to say in future discussions.  I base a lot of my predictions on my gut and intuition.  My pre-season thoughts stand that an early and rare SSW is in the cards this season.  Let's see if this happens.

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I think the average person would say we don't need a SSW event to aid in the development of more cold into the North American pattern that has been evolving thus far.  In seasons past, we would need some sort of cattle prod to kick off an event to start a cold pattern but this season we obviously have not needed any "help" from Siberia as "we", North America, have easily "brewed" up our own cold air and have not need help from the "Siberian Express".  On the other hand, if we do see a SSW event it will only add farther into the entire scope of the Hemispheric pattern which is creating a prime setup for cold air to keep delivering into North America.  In all honesty, this may be one of those seasons where we keep hearing "the pattern just keeps on delivering".  Will there be suppression?  Yes, I full anticipate it and I am mindful of it esp as we get deeper into the season.  Come Jan/Feb I am fully expecting to see Historic cold to hit the Gulf Coast and snows flying in the deep south.  What happened in Oct and what is about to happen next week will cycle through in future cycles and this nation is going to be under an Ice Box in early 2020.

 

I have not dug up any analogs of this season in terms of SSW events, but I'm sure we will read more about this in Judah Cohen's blogs.  I'm really curious to hear what he has to say in future discussions.  I base a lot of my predictions on my gut and intuition.  My pre-season thoughts stand that an early and rare SSW is in the cards this season.  Let's see if this happens.

 

Appreciate you taking the time to break this down more bud. Jan '77 comes to mind with flakes flying in Miami (not sure if that was SSW induced or not?). Other than the harshness of cold temps, you will not hear me complaining if I have a decent snow pack to preserve (see Feb 2015).  Fascinating times to be a follower of winter wx!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sometimes I don't know what I like better, winter or winter's potential?  :lol:

 

I've been waiting for this final winter outlook. I had a hunch I'd be pleased when I saw it and I was right.  :D

 

Niko, TOL_Weather, and I hope to ride a hot hand 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkQTUP7ZEWU&list=UUc9YCB6iO5jmBtQ6yALZMiQ&index=2&t=0s

 

20191107 WxDecoded Winter Outlook.PNG

 

20191107 WxDecoded Blizzometer.PNG

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sometimes I don't know what I like better, winter or winter's potential?  :lol:

 

I've been waiting for this final winter outlook. I had a hunch I'd be pleased when I saw it and I was right.  :D

 

Niko, TOL_Weather, and I hope to ride a hot hand 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkQTUP7ZEWU&list=UUc9YCB6iO5jmBtQ6yALZMiQ&index=2&t=0s

 

attachicon.gif20191107 WxDecoded Winter Outlook.PNG

 

attachicon.gif20191107 WxDecoded Blizzometer.PNG

:D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Alright, alright, alright....who's ready to skip Autumn and head right into Winter???  While many of us already have, the latest JMA seasonal is suggesting a "Winter to Remember" for most, if not, all of our Sub Forum.  Let's take a look at what its recent run is showing.  

 

By all means, the biggest signal off the model is the persistent and resilient NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge that is placed just offshore which allows for storms to slide into the central/northern Rockies and develop in the central CONUS.  This is an important sign for many reasons, none moreso, that it agrees with the developing LRC to which it is suggesting an active pattern and one that produces "inside sliders".

 

Met Winter looks to get off on a wet/active start as a slight SER signal may be in the cards that could pay big dividends next month...

 

Temp/Precip...

 

Y201911.D0700_gl2.png

 

 

Y201911.D0700_gl0.png

 

 

January...this month the entire nation east of the Rockies could very well end in the Ice box.  Look at the massive amount of blocking and IF a SSW event ends up happening in December, Look Out!

 

Y201911.D0700_gl2.png

 

Y201911.D0700_gl0.png

 

 

February...the signal is there for the cold to dominate and a continuation of an active pattern...

 

Y201911.D0700_gl2.png

 

Y201911.D0700_gl0.png

 

 

 

The mean SST pattern over the course of the Winter months is about as perfect as a Winter Wx fan would like to see....

 

Y201911.D0700_gls.png

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Winter temperatures and snow fall predictions are nothing more than just a guess. So that being said today WOOD TV 8 came out with their guess for the winter in west Michigan. They think that this winter will be a lot like last winter in being a “back loaded” winter so after this cold mid December their thinking is that it will warm up and stay mild well into December (maybe the start of January) Here are some of the snow fall guesses that each person has made.

  • Emily Schuitema predicts: 87 inches of snow in Kalamazoo, 83 inches in Grand Rapids, 100 inches in Holland and 101 in Muskegon.
  • Ellen Bacca predicts: 90 inches in Kalamazoo, 89 inches in Grand Rapids, 106 inches in Holland and 94 in Muskegon.
  • Matt Kirkwood predicts: 95 inches in Kalamazoo, 94 in Grand Rapids, 112 inches in Holland and 103 in Muskegon.
  • Terri DeBoer predicts: 82 inches in Kalamazoo, 85 in Grand Rapids 98 inches in Holland and 105 in Muskegon.
  • Bill Steffen predicts: 83 inches in Kalamazoo, 81 inches in Grand Rapids, 105 inches in Holland and 88 in Muskegon.
  • For what it is worth (remember I don’t get paid for this) my guess is 75” at Kalamazoo, 70” at Grand Rapids, 85” at Holland and 80” at Muskegon. Also in the past a cold and snowy mid November has led to very little snow or a green Christmas and that is what my guess is that Grand Rapids will have very little or no snow on the ground on Christmas 2019. Remember all of the above is just a guess.

Here is WOOD’s posted guess for the winter of 2018/20

 

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/storm-team-8-winter-outlook-2019-2020/

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