August 2019 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

Oh yeah, I didn’t mean it to sound like I was calling out people who didn’t say anything!!

 

I appreciate it though Really hoping the weather continues to look nice.. but even if it doesn’t, there are worse things in life!

The weather changes, life changes, the people around your life change, but if none of it changes your heart and the love inside of it then you'll always have something incredible to look forward to every single day for the rest of your life. Good or bad, no matter what.

I know that to be true. It always will be.

[Tom]

Getting some nice embedded heavier showers from this mornings system that has a neat looking comma shape to it on radar.  The seasons first legit Autumn storm is getting ready to deepen once this energy phases with the northern stream across Manitoba/Ontario.  Parts of MN/U.P. may not get out of the 50's!

[Stormy]

I wasn't on here for a few days so have some catching up to do.

 

Anyway, I was pleasantly surprised with the nice rain we received here overnight when it wasn't really expected, or forecast for that matter! I ended up with 0.95". Higher amounts to the east, especially east of the Mississippi River now. I'm afraid we're going to have to many clouds today, preventing much in the way of t. storms later. Most of the models don't show much for later today anyway.

[Stormy]

Thanks for the best wishes from some of you guys!

Things are looking pretty solid for next weekend.

We’re also heading to Antigua for our honeymoon next Monday, so thankfully Dorian will be our of the area and doesn’t look to impact that island.

Belated congrats & best wishes to a blessed married life! Wishing you an awesome & safe honeymoon!

[Iowawx]

I got 0.38" of rain last night. I wasn't expecting much last night so that is a surprise. The rain last night brings my August rainfall total so far to 4.43" and that is the average August rainfall here so we have already met the average rainfall here.

 

With more rain expected today and another chance of rain on Friday, we likely will finish August above normal for rainfall. 

[Hawkeye]

I've picked up 0.31".  Unfortunately, this lead rain system is going to ruin this afternoon's rain event.  Models are now showing little or nothing around here.

[james1976]

Thanks for the best wishes from some of you guys!

 

Things are looking pretty solid for next weekend.

 

We’re also heading to Antigua for our honeymoon next Monday, so thankfully Dorian will be our of the area and doesn’t look to impact that island.

Congrats and hopefully the weather cooperates for ya!

[East Dubzz]

Thanks guys!!

 

How is the Euro looking for Saturday? Sorry to keep asking haha!

[Hawkeye]

How is the Euro looking for Saturday? Sorry to keep asking haha!

 

Last night's Euro had a band of rain affecting areas south of hw20.

[Minny_Weather]

Today was supposed to be warm and humid, but that's off the table now. It's been on-and-off showering all day. The temp has been flatlining all day, if not slightly decreasing. 67.3*F.

[Hawkeye]

Last night's Euro had a band of rain affecting areas south of hw20.

 

Today's 12z Euro has a slow-moving shortwave producing a total washout across Iowa on Saturday, with temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s.  Yuck!  Sorry, EastDubzz.  I hope that changes.

 

Edit:  I see the GFS shows a weaker and farther-south shortwave, which produces only scattered very light precip in Iowa.

[jaster220]

Getting some nice embedded heavier showers from this mornings system that has a neat looking comma shape to it on radar.  The seasons first legit Autumn storm is getting ready to deepen once this energy phases with the northern stream across Manitoba/Ontario.  Parts of MN/U.P. may not get out of the 50's!

This certainly has the look and feel of an Autumn system, that's for sure. ENSO neutral paying dividends attm for SMI. Question is will it continue over the cold season?

[East Dubzz]

Today's 12z Euro has a slow-moving shortwave producing a total washout across Iowa on Saturday, with temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s.  Yuck!  Sorry, EastDubzz.  I hope that changes.

 

Edit:  I see the GFS shows a weaker and farther-south shortwave, which produces only scattered very light precip in Iowa.

 

Feels like the models have been trending closer and closer to this, but hopefully this changes again. Still pretty far away with that. I'd be fine with the GFS, but that description of the Euro does not sound all too pleasant!

[clintbeed1993]

The historic August continues in Central Nebraska. On top of the freak thunderstorm that brought 90+ mph winds that uprooted trees and caused major power outages and damage, August is also one for the record books for rainfall. August 2019 is now the 2nd wettest calendar month on record in Grand Island. After another 1.50 inches this morning, GI is up to 11 and a half inches for the month! This is extra amazing considering none of the previous top 10 months took place in August. The state fair is in town and you can see standing water in the background shot of it in this graphic.

 

To make it even more incredible, GI is not even the heaviest hit town in the area.  Doniphan which is just about 10 miles away has gotten something like 15 inches! I don't know if anybody has been keeping track of this but I've never experienced anything close to this in my lifetime. The wettest month since 1967.  We will likely end up top 5 wettest year as well.  As a storm fan, setting historic records is one of the most exciting things to experience. Glad I've gotten to witness something like this, now if only this pattern can hold through next winter!

[Andie]

It's 103* out there! Feels like 116*. Yeah, Can't make this stuff up.

 

Front blowing in. We'll have rain and 89* tomorrow with a low of 73*.

 

That's life in Texas. Blink and it changes.......except when it doesn't.

 

This may be the last hurrah of summer, I hope, but I've seen 100's in October

[Tom]

I have been getting rounds of heavy rain.  Local reports are in the 2.0-2.5" range which is a lot more than I was expecting.  It's very damp, humid, but thankfully temps are in the low 70's.  Current ob 74F/72F.  Can't wait for the drier air to move in later tomorrow and through most of the week.

[Niko]

Rainshowers have arrived and its quite breezy. Temp is at 72F and a comfortable dew of 64F. Looking forward to some rain tanite.

[East Dubzz]

18z GFS showing more rain this run

 

[james1976]

I returned home from my trip this morning. What a fun time we had but also glad to be home. And the weather is nice. Today was cloudy and low 70s. Quite the difference from what I experienced over the last 2 weeks! Currently the cold front just pushed thru and its 70 with a nice NW breeze and the sky cleared just in time for me to grill this sirloin and enjoy the sunset from my deck! Fall is right around the corner and I'm excited to get going with it☺

[jaster220]

I have been getting rounds of heavy rain.  Local reports are in the 2.0-2.5" range which is a lot more than I was expecting.  It's very damp, humid, but thankfully temps are in the low 70's.  Current ob 74F/72F.  Can't wait for the drier air to move in later tomorrow and through most of the week.

 

Lucky yby again. Unless the airport unit has become trash, we've managed to get dry-slotted here with only .05"

 

I was in Grand Rapids (where it really poured) and got back to Marshall after the main rain shield had exited the region. Just horrible luck? Idk. I do know the airport unit was working correctly when it recorded 1+ inches back on 7/5-6. If there's a way to check other local sites for qpf, I'm not familiar with how exactly to do that. Haven't had a green lawn in front since mid-July and here we are at LDW! 

 

EDIT: I see Battle Creek's reporting only 0.34" on the day so far, and I know from radar peeks they've gotten more than here. Can't buy a decent slug of precip here. 

[snowstorm83]

May struggle to get out of the 60s on Saturday. Also first game day of the year. 

[Tom]

Many areas across N IL received over 1" of rain yesterday that came down in buckets at times.  It was the heaviest rain in over 3 months at ORD.

 

 

 

[Tom]

@ EastDubbz, sorry my man, but the models are trending cooler and potentially very wet on Saturday for your area and area wide.  00z Euro dumps 2"+ of rain right smack dab over your house during the day on Saturday!  No bueno!  It's like an I-80 special you would want to see in the winter.

[East Dubzz]

@ EastDubbz, sorry my man, but the models are trending cooler and potentially very wet on Saturday for your area and area wide.  00z Euro dumps 2"+ of rain right smack dab over your house during the day on Saturday!  No bueno!  It's like an I-80 special you would want to see in the winter.

 

Yeah not loving the trends. Seems like it's getting worse with every model run. Hoping there is enough time for that to change back.

[East Dubzz]

What time does the Euro have the rain starting? Is it an all-day thing? We are doing some pictures before the wedding at around noon, but I suppose the Euro probably has rain in the area by then already. Ugh. Luckily the ceremony and reception are inside, but still... the to-be wife is not pleased with these updates.

[Tom]

What time does the Euro have the rain starting? Is it an all-day thing? We are doing some pictures before the wedding at around noon, but I suppose the Euro probably has rain in the area by then already. Ugh. Luckily the ceremony and reception are inside, but still... the to-be wife is not pleased with these updates.

Start time at this point is in the morning through the early afternoon...not the best scenario...

[East Dubzz]

Start time at this point is in the morning through the early afternoon...not the best scenario...

 

 

Let's hope this changes...

[Andie]

It's pouring right now. I mean pouring for the last 30 minutes.

Lightning and tremendous thunder in this one. Wish you guys could experience it. The house absolutely shook.

 

We have rain today and tonight forecast. We'll see if it actually does give us that much rain.

It was very warm this morning but temps are supposed to drop into the high 80's. Currently 79* and we've received just under .50" of rain in the past 40 minutes.

Nice little shower.

[Niko]

Currently the temp is at 72F w a dew of 71F. Also, its wet outside w on and off showers continuing throughout the midday hour. Late clearing expected late pm w much drier air filtering in and cooler temps. Another CF will sweep on in on Thursday (slight chance of storms), which will allow more cool, dry air to continue right through the LDW.

[Niko]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI426 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019MIZ047-048-053-054-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-280900-Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Tuscola-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-426 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightThere is a chance of thunderstorms today ahead of a cold front thatwill sweep across the area. These storms are not expected to besevere but may produce wind gusts to 40 mph and brief heavy rainfallas they track northeast at 30 mph..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

That should feel good!

[Hawkeye]

Start time at this point is in the morning through the early afternoon...not the best scenario...

 

The weather.us euro maps show the rain beginning in Dubuque around 2am and continuing for 24 hours.

[Andie]

Rain off and on till late afternoon.

 

[East Dubzz]

The weather.us euro maps show the rain beginning in Dubuque around 2am and continuing for 24 hours.

 

Ugh...

 

Thanks for the updates, though. I can check the other models myself, but would you guys mind giving me updates on the Euro? Hoping it starts going away from that soon.

 

The NWS doesn't seem to be buying that solution right now, so hopefully they're right.

[East Dubzz]

Well, this isn't ideal....

 

[East Dubzz]

So, is this an MCS , or like a long-term rain event the models are trying to show?

 

On a positive note, the band of heavier rain on the GFS is pretty narrow, and there is still plenty of time for it to shift.

 

Does the GFS-Legacy still have any legitimacy to it? It doesn't show any rain around here, so I'm going to cling to that 

[East Dubzz]

So.... I am leaving for my honeymoon on Monday morning.

 

Leaving early Monday to go to Miami, then Miami to Antigua. 

 

Could this hurricane potentially cause travel issues? 

[Stormy]

It's pouring right now. I mean pouring for the last 30 minutes.

Lightning and tremendous thunder in this one. Wish you guys could experience it. The house absolutely shook.

We have rain today and tonight forecast. We'll see if it actually does give us that much rain.

It was very warm this morning but temps are supposed to drop into the high 80's. Currently 79* and we've received just under .50" of rain in the past 40 minutes.

Nice little shower.

I noticed early this morning there were storms heading for the Dallas/ Ft. Worth area. Glad to see you getting some rain and cooler temps.

[Stormy]

I got 0.38" of rain last night. I wasn't expecting much last night so that is a surprise. The rain last night brings my August rainfall total so far to 4.43" and that is the average August rainfall here so we have already met the average rainfall here.

 

With more rain expected today and another chance of rain on Friday, we likely will finish August above normal for rainfall.

 

August rainfall already is above normal here. I’m at 5.69” so far, which is a huge turnaround from the paltry 0.61” here in July. Even a lot more than the three some inches I got in June, which is really when the dryer pattern started in my neck of the woods.

[Stormy]

Ugh...

 

Thanks for the updates, though. I can check the other models myself, but would you guys mind giving me updates on the Euro? Hoping it starts going away from that soon.

 

The NWS doesn't seem to be buying that solution right now, so hopefully they're right.

I can understand your concerns. For important events like a wedding, it sure is nice to have beautiful weather! Sometimes it seems weather wants to be just opposite of what we desperately desire!

[Iowawx]

The WPC QPF map is getting on board with the idea of widespread rain on Saturday. Has widespread 1-2" of rain in Iowa on Saturday.

 

The 12Z GFS also has Cedar Rapids only getting up to 57 degrees. Last nights Euro also had widespread rain and temperatures in the low 60's on Saturday so the widespread rain appears more likely.