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September 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Actually it should be fairly calm directly below them since they are flying in the eye, although it looks like they are pretty close to the eye wall which is the most violent part!
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I always figured that the Old Farmers Almanac’s claim of 80% forecast accuracy is totally far fetched. On September 4 Terry Swailes posted on his blog the results of Steve Gottschalk’s observation of how accurate or inaccurate they were last winter. On most months last winter our area was opposite of the Almanac’s forecast! I expect you Iowa posters already saw that, but thought I’d mention it anyway.

As far as woolly worms go, what I’ve seen so far were light colored or a yellowish white. I’m not sure what that foretells as I’m not much into weather folklore. I remember last fall I saw a lot that looked exactly like the one pictured on Terry’s post. There are a lot of crickets, or more than usual right now, and I’m often running into those many nasty spider webs lately, but that’s normal this time of the year.

https://www.tswails.com/home/Date/2019-09

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I always figured that the Old Farmers Almanac’s claim of 80% forecast accuracy is totally far fetched. On September 4 Terry Swailes posted on his blog the results of Steve Gottschalk’s observation of how accurate or inaccurate they were last winter. On most months last winter our area was opposite of the Almanac’s forecast! I expect you Iowa posters already saw that, but thought I’d mention it anyway.

As far as woolly worms go, what I’ve seen so far were light colored or a yellowish white. I’m not sure what that foretells as I’m not much into weather folklore. I remember last fall I saw a lot that looked exactly like the one pictured on Terry’s post. There are a lot of crickets, or more than usual right now, and I’m often running into those many nasty spider webs lately, but that’s normal this time of the year.

https://www.tswails.com/home/Date/2019-09

He has much above normal for all of next week. That sucks. I want fall
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Spent most of the day yesterday in the low/mid 60's underneath low stratus which gave that Autumnal feel.  Sun managed to peak out later in the day which allowed temps to rise to a high of 69F.  Big day today in the NFL world and the wx will be cooperating.  Lakeside temps should be in the low 60's at game time which is ideal at this time of year.  Fall-like temps and Football season....Da Bears!

 

 

 

EDqp6ckWkAAvwLA.jpg

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The northern hemisphere's "ice box" is going into the freezer now and over the next couple weeks.  Temps are forecast to plummet subzero and snows will be bountiful  I always find it rather neat to see how the cold builds across Greenland and begins to spill into the Arctic regions that eventually creates our "home grown" cold.  These are the beginning stages of the development of what I interpret to be the signals of next year's LRC which will eventually develop into a strong "North American Vortex" next month.

 

 

 

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The low here at my house was 45° with clear skies the current temperature here is 46.  With lows in the mid and upper 30's in northern lower Michigan this morning and this has happened before this early fall as well, just goes to show you just how cold Michigan really can get even in the warm season.

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Currently sunny and crisp w a temp of 56F. Highs today remaining in the 60s. Absolutely beautiful outside.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wow, that is just unbelievable for Marshall. It just does not want to give a decent t'stm ova your area. I saw the radar and its exactly like you are explaining it in your post above. Weird weather stuff there buddy, that's for sure.

 

Radar showing a decent cluster of storms just north of your area making a b-line towards Macomb County. Hoping it makes the trip. Dew is at 69, so it should across the state. :blink:

 

It's happened several times this summer. I begin the day with T-storms likely (80% chance per my grid), and get all excited for it only to watch it vanish like a terrible mirage right before my eyes. Went from hyped-up to not a drop. Worst one of the bunch. Hopefully the last.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Crystal clear skies tanite w temps falling into the 40s. AHHHHHhhhHHHhhh.....Canada opening its doors. :D

 

Currently at 59F w clear skies.

 

Went down to 46F this morning out at the airport. I stepped out to a balmy 50F but it kept dropping after I had left town. Certainly a huge contrast from 90F I left behind in D.C.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's happened several times this summer. I begin the day with T-storms likely (80% chance per my grid), and get all excited for it only to watch it vanish like a terrible mirage right before my eyes. Went from hyped-up to not a drop. Worst one of the bunch. Hopefully the last.  

What is probably the worst is being under a Winter Storm Warning expecting 8"+ of snow and ending up getting shafted by a RN/SN mix!

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Went down to 46F this morning out at the airport. I stepped out to a balmy 50F but it kept dropping after I had left town. Certainly a huge contrast from 90F I left behind in D.C.

Wow, DC is baking! Must feel great encountering the 40s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's happened several times this summer. I begin the day with T-storms likely (80% chance per my grid), and get all excited for it only to watch it vanish like a terrible mirage right before my eyes. Went from hyped-up to not a drop. Worst one of the bunch. Hopefully the last.  

That can be verrrrrry frustrated, for sure.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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No severe weather today as skies remain sunny and very pleasant w temps in the upper 60s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not only are the leaves changing color, but some of them are already starting to fall now.

 

We haven’t hit 80F since August 20. Today’s high is forecasted to be 80F but we might not make it due to filtered sunshine. It could be our last time reaching 80 for the year. If we don’t make it to 80 again this will be the earliest ‘last 80’ on record. The only other time the ‘last 80’ occurred in August was August 30 1924. Still plenty of time left for a surprise warm up however. But based on the medium range forecast it’s certainly possible we could set the record this year.

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Already 87 degrees as of 1:30 PM, but the dew is only 65 so heat index is a refreshing 89 (sarc)  :) .  Pretty bad around here when a 65 dew is a large improvement of the almost constant 70 degree or higher dews of the past 2 months.  Looks like above normal temps for highs and lows for the foreseeable future according to latest forecasts.

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Latest on Dorian:

 

This image, taken around 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, Sept. 5, 2019, shows Hurricane Dorian approaching the Carolina coast. High clouds from the hurricane were reaching as far north as the central Appalachians and southern New England. (NOAA/GOES-East)

 

https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/9acca2f/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fd9%2Fe0%2Fe020551a45939c540beec563a08d%2Fdorian-11-am-thurs-sat-photo.50.14%20AM.png

 

Its amazing how far north the high clouds have reached from Dorian.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This morning I had the lowest temp so far, with 52°. Had 53° twice before though. It’s around 80° now with dews in the mid 60°s. Sure are having nice weather IMO.

 

While mowing lawn today I noticed there are still are some good sized cracks in the yard even though the grass is nice and green. So we definitely need more rain. The grass probably won’t grow as fast next week unless it rains over the weekend.

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What is probably the worst is being under a Winter Storm Warning expecting 8"+ of snow and ending up getting shafted by a RN/SN mix!

 

Oh for sure. Many way worse burn scenarios during the winter months, lol. I was simply saying that this was the worst rain FAIL of the numerous times this summer here.  :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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93 with a heat index of 103 a bit earlier this afternoon. I for one am rooting for summer to hang on as long as possible. We'll have plenty of time for cold, brown ground and trees with no leaves in a couple of months :P

I agree though I would rather have 70°s to low 80°s. I’m not a big fan of winter with such short days and much more dreary cloudy conditions. This summer wasn’t to bad except the first few weeks in July were to hot and humid and it was the only warmer and much dryer than normal month. August and June weren’t bad at all. I’m not expecting any likes on this post (lol) with most of you on here loving cold weather, and that’s ok to like cold!

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While mowing lawn today I noticed there are still are some good sized cracks in the yard even though the grass is nice and green. So we definitely need more rain. The grass probably won’t grow as fast next week unless it rains over the weekend.

 

It has been more than two weeks since our big soakers.  I am currently working on part of my yard and the top 2-3 inches of soil is bone dry again.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looking back, yesterday one year ago I had 3.40" of rain with much of it falling in one hours time! The weather seemed to follow a monthly pattern for awhile last fall, though I think it was just a chance happening since I'm not a big believer in organized wx patterns and more in the randomness of nature. My area had very heavy rainfall in early September and October, and again in early November and December, but to a lesser degree partly due to climo.

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95 with heat index of 102 and a 74 dew. Enough already. Uncle, we give up.

My, your temps have wild up and down swings compared to eastern Iowa! And Michigan probably is less so than my area. I topped out at only 79° yesterday.

 

The WPC was really juiced for parts of Iowa the last two runs. Let's hope it stays that way.

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I always figured that the Old Farmers Almanac’s claim of 80% forecast accuracy is totally far fetched. On September 4 Terry Swailes posted on his blog the results of Steve Gottschalk’s observation of how accurate or inaccurate they were last winter. On most months last winter our area was opposite of the Almanac’s forecast! I expect you Iowa posters already saw that, but thought I’d mention it anyway.

As far as woolly worms go, what I’ve seen so far were light colored or a yellowish white. I’m not sure what that foretells as I’m not much into weather folklore. I remember last fall I saw a lot that looked exactly like the one pictured on Terry’s post. There are a lot of crickets, or more than usual right now, and I’m often running into those many nasty spider webs lately, but that’s normal this time of the year.https://www.tswails.com/home/Date/2019-09

Yesterday I saw 2 more woolly worms , but these were totally dark colored. Haven’t seen any with stripes or bands like last year. So expect a mixed winter. No clue...lol

 

On a side note: I like how Steve backs up his folklore, etc with the percentage of accuracy, which I read in the articles that the “Our Iowa” magazine publishes of him and his forecasts.

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Is this Bearing Sea storm due by 9/12 - /9/13 the first clues to the new LRC???  Using the BSR, we can extrapolate out into the future and get an idea on what the opening week of October may look like.  Given the track of this system being forecasted by the majority of all the global models, I'm predicting a strong northern stream storm coming out of the northern Rockies during the opening week of October.  I know this is a September thread, but I thought I'd post my thoughts here and challenge myself.

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_27.png

 

 

I'm becoming more convinced day by day that we open up October with a SW ridge, Arcitc Blocking and a dominant NW Flow as PAC systems will be taking a La Nina (ish) type of storm track.  Certainly opposite of how we opened up October last year.  The signals to me are speaking loudly and the models are starting to point that way.  Taking a look at the CFSv2 weekly map, the one below foretell's what I've envisioned since August.

 

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_5.png

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Another day with an autumnal feel in the air. Cloudy, cool and a nice breeze out ahead of an approaching CF. Took a stroll around the neighborhood and noticed a couple trees with a lot of leaves changing color. I don't know what kind of trees they are but they usually turn color first. I saw a fall color map of out of MN DNR page and it compared this year to the previous 2 years and it doesn't really show accelerated color change. That might change in the following week or two.

 

Here's the link: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/fall_colors/compare.html

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Not much rain here at my house just 0.03" it is cloudy and a somewhat cool 64° at this time. The overnight low here was 56° At GRR the over night low as 57 and they reported just 0.01" of rain fall. The official H/L yesterday for GRR was 74/48 with that 0.01" of rain fall. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high is 97 set in 1954 the record low is 36 set in 1962. The warmest minimum was 73 in 1922 and the coldest maximum was 62 set in 1944.

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Another day with an autumnal feel in the air.  Cloudy, cool and a nice breeze out ahead of an approaching CF.  Took a stroll around the neighborhood and noticed a couple trees with a lot of leaves changing color.  I don't know what kind of trees they are but they usually turn color first.  I saw a fall color map of out of MN DNR page and it compared this year to the previous 3 years and it doesn't really show accelerated color change.  That might change in the following week or two.

 

Here's the link: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/fall_colors/compare.html

Interesting how the metro is the only spot on the map showing any changes. I would not have guessed that to be the case.

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I agree though I would rather have 70°s to low 80°s. I’m not a big fan of winter with such short days and much more dreary cloudy conditions. This summer wasn’t to bad except the first few weeks in July were to hot and humid and it was the only warmer and much dryer than normal month. August and June weren’t bad at all. I’m not expecting any likes on this post (lol) with most of you on here loving cold weather, and that’s ok to like cold!

 

I wouldn't say I enjoy the extreme and dewpoints(humidity being the worse), but if it's a very hot and muggy day I just stay inside of course. For me late spring/summer has always been the more enjoyable part of the year. There's usually storms and severe weather and I chase quite a bit. I love landscaping/flowers. I enjoy the birds at our feeder and all the other wildlife that is out. We just found a prairie ring neck snake in our backyard a couple of days ago here in the middle of Omaha :)  Summer afternoons and evenings swimming with my daughters in our backyard pool or at a city pool is one of my favorite things. We also have our yearly family camping trips with both sides of the family in the summer. I just enjoy the sounds and "feel" of the air on a warm summer evening. The days are long and it's not dark by the time you get home from work.

I obviously have some interest in winter since I'm here. My interest really is only with snowstorms/blizzards though. Here in Nebraska with the average snowfall of just 25" or so, that means the majority of the winter is boring with no storms, the ground is brown and ugly, the trees bare, minimal birds/wildlife, the days short where it's dark when you get home from work. The extreme cold I've found has always hurt my bones. If it could be 25-30 degrees all winter, I'd like it much more. I don't do winter sports. With the spotty snows and depending on timing of the day of the week, etc it's been relatively hard to take my daughters sledding when there's either fresh snow on the weekend or it's not too cold for them or the snow is too hard and crusty.

At any rate, I'll end my rant now :P  

 

Today is quite a bit cooler and way less humid and with a nice north breeze. Hopefully will get some nice storms tomorrow evening and overnight here as there's an 80% chance right now. I'd love to be able to get some lightning shots.

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I wouldn't say I enjoy the extreme and dewpoints(humidity being the worse), but if it's a very hot and muggy day I just stay inside of course. For me late spring/summer has always been the more enjoyable part of the year. There's usually storms and severe weather and I chase quite a bit. I love landscaping/flowers. I enjoy the birds at our feeder and all the other wildlife that is out. We just found a prairie ring neck snake in our backyard a couple of days ago here in the middle of Omaha :)  Summer afternoons and evenings swimming with my daughters in our backyard pool or at a city pool is one of my favorite things. We also have our yearly family camping trips with both sides of the family in the summer. I just enjoy the sounds and "feel" of the air on a warm summer evening. The days are long and it's not dark by the time you get home from work.

I obviously have some interest in winter since I'm here. My interest really is only with snowstorms/blizzards though. Here in Nebraska with the average snowfall of just 25" or so, that means the majority of the winter is boring with no storms, the ground is brown and ugly, the trees bare, minimal birds/wildlife, the days short where it's dark when you get home from work. The extreme cold I've found has always hurt my bones. If it could be 25-30 degrees all winter, I'd like it much more. I don't do winter sports. With the spotty snows and depending on timing of the day of the week, etc it's been relatively hard to take my daughters sledding when there's either fresh snow on the weekend or it's not too cold for them or the snow is too hard and crusty.

At any rate, I'll end my rant now :P  

 

Today is quite a bit cooler and way less humid and with a nice north breeze. Hopefully will get some nice storms tomorrow evening and overnight here as there's an 80% chance right now. I'd love to be able to get some lightning shots.

Interesting post. Thanks for taking time and sharing your thoughts.

 

Sometimes when I’m reviewing a video I shot of an approaching thunderstorm I’ll notice the birds or crickets, etc chirping merrily, but when I was shooting I didn’t really even notice those sounds probably because I was more interested in the storms right then. But I enjoy videos with those sounds, and in real time too, of course!

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