October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

Broke record highs yesterday and today here, but tomorrow, while still warm, looks to be a morning high as the cold front is set to move through sometime in the middle of the day tomorrow. Hoodie may be required for my evening class tomorrow with temps falling into the low 60s, rain, and wind.

[Iowawx]

The line of storms is holding together as it moves into Cedar Rapids. I can already see lightning off to the west. 

[East Dubzz]

Rain gauge at my parents house was showing a rainfall rate of 3.78”/hour... now 4.21”/hour.

[Hawkeye]

The line of storms is holding together as it moves into Cedar Rapids. I can already see lightning off to the west. 

 

The line is trying its best to lift north of CR.  I'd feel better if I lived in Hiawatha.

 

The area just north of CR that already got clobbered by the severe cells a couple hours ago is getting clobbered again.

[East Dubzz]

Wow... got up to a 5”/hour rate.

[Hawkeye]

Wow... got up to a 5”/hour rate.

 

Because Dubuque just hasn't received enough heavy stuff lately.  No doubt, with this incredibly moist atmosphere, the deep red on radar must be pretty torrential.

[East Dubzz]

Because Dubuque just hasn't received enough heavy stuff lately.

It’s just been ridiculous around here.

[Hawkeye]

Dubzz, is there any wind from these cells?

[East Dubzz]

Dubzz, is there any wind from these cells?

I haven’t noticed much around me. A little, but nothing worth noting too much. I am in an area that’s a little concealed from the wind, but I didn’t notice anything too much.

[Iowawx]

The storms are getting very close. Looks like there will be very heavy rain. Deep reds are showing up on radar. 

[East Dubzz]

Looks like we’re about to get another round of heavy rain. Man.

[Iowawx]

Just got 0.64" of rain in the past 10 minutes. Unfortunately, my rain gauge just blew over so now I don't know how much has fallen since then. It is still coming down really hard now. Could be easily an inch. 

[Hawkeye]

Just got 0.64" of rain in the past 10 minutes. Unfortunately, my rain gauge just blew over so now I don't know how much has fallen since then. It is still coming down really hard now. Could be easily an inch. 

 

It appears the thickest red moved over the north side.  I'm getting solid rain, but nothing too heavy.  Maybe the trailing cells can hold their strength and lift ene into CR.  I'll check my gauge in between cells.

[Iowawx]

It appears the thickest red moved over the north side.  I'm getting solid rain, but nothing too heavy.  Maybe the trailing cells can hold their strength and lift ene into CR.  I'll check my gauge in between cells.

Are there any spotter/weather station reports in the northeast side of Cedar Rapids? Would like to know how much they got so far. 

[Hawkeye]

Are there any spotter/weather station reports in the northeast side of Cedar Rapids? Would like to know how much they got so far. 

 

Stations in far ne CR and Hiawatha are in the 0.90-1.00" range.

 

The two cells that passed over me only added up to 0.56".  Like I said, it was solid but not especially heavy.

[East Dubzz]

Power just went out. Transformer exploded.

[East Dubzz]

Approaching 2” of rain for this evening’s round.

[Stormy]

Those storms sure moved quickly through CR. I'm expecting only weak crap here eventually. What a dud this is for me after anticipating it for what seems like a long time.

[Iowawx]

I’ll go with 1.05” for a total so far. The rain came down really fast. Where I live, in my backyard, there is a hill with a slope and it floods when rain falls really hard and quick. The water flows down from Huntington Ridge park and then into backyards and then flows into Indian creek. The water can stick around for several hours.

 

These photos are from tonight.

[Bryan1117]

Just went out and checked my rain gauge after a very soggy afternoon and evening here in Omaha and I picked up another 2.25 inches of rain today, which is pretty much right in line for what I was expecting from this storm system.

 

There is still some light rain falling right now, but the back edge should be moving in shortly.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

SO much moisture in the atmosphere to work with:

This morning`s 12Z OAX sounding had 2.03" of precipitable water (SPC
sounding plot) , which is 275% of normal. This value represents a
record precipitable water value for any day in October or any day in
September through September 5th. Abundant moisture is in place,
however the forcing has not been super-focused. Part of this was
likely due to the strong deep layer shear. Streaks of 2" plus rains
occurred overnight, however coverage was spotty.

 

I've had 2.46" of rain so far on my wireless gauge (going to be a bit high I'm sure). The NWS has issued a Flood Watch for tomorrow now as they expect a round of heavy rain tomorrow now too. Just unbelievable.

 

Went chasing today in Iowa. Unfortunately, I left too late and was a bit late for everything. Missed the Red Oak tornado by about 20 minutes and the next dominant cell in that group basically fell apart as I was driving up to it. The only confirmed tornado reports I saw were brief tornadoes though.

[Iowawx]

Found a weather station on wunderground a quarter mile from my location and it has 1.26" of rain so far. I'll take that as the total so far for my location. 

 

Another area of moderate to heavy rain is moving into the Cedar Rapids area now. Perhaps 2" or more for a total is not out of the question. 

[Bellona]

1 inch of rain this morning, 2 this afternoon, and another 1.5 so far tonight. More than I had anticipated to be honest. It can quit now.

[East Dubzz]

Parents’ station has 2.52” of rain for the day so far, with rain still falling. 2.15” of that has come this evening / tonight.

[Bellona]

Interestingly enough the reporting station less than a mile away says 2.06 today...

[Hawkeye]

I'm at 1.26".... more than I thought.  Far ne CR and Hiawatha have received 1.7-1.9".

 

Iowa City ended up in the screwed location.  The storms sagged south just far enough to get CR.

[Iowawx]

I am now at 1.80" The rain is still falling but it's not really heavy now. We will easily get to more than 2" for a total if that area of moderate rain near Des Moines moves into the Cedar Rapids area later on. 

[Hawkeye]

I did receive 0.12" this morning, so my daily total is around 1.40" now.  There wasn't anything too exciting today, but we knew we were on the edge so this is a decent result.

[james1976]

1.10" this evening and 0.22" this morning for a daily total of 1.32"

[Grizzcoat]

Though my location only recieved 1.75" of rain- the DSM airport just 15 miles or so E received 3.59" for OCT 1st.  That is amazing as it doubled the daily record. 

Yearly precip stands at 42.91". Over 13" above the norm to date. And in 10th place yearly with nearly 3 months left.

Interestingly - since 1879- the  top 7 wettest years at DSM have occurred in the past 16 years. Call it what you want but I believe not so much in  AGW - but in water vapor increase due to ocean heat content. Before you critic- you should know that 2 of the top 5 wettest years ever occurred  in 1881 (TOP at 56.81" and 1882 5th at 47.60).  something seriously was going on in 1881 and 1882 with the climate and sure wasn't C02-- but maybe water vapor from warm oceans? -- certainly not Krakatoa as it erupted in 1883. 

[Tom]

Looks like @CentralNeb is the first member in our Sub that is placed under a Frost Advisory for later tonight....

 

 

 

Frost Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
302 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

NEZ039-046-060-061-022100-
/O.NEW.KGID.FR.Y.0005.191003T0800Z-191003T1400Z/
Valley-Sherman-Dawson-Buffalo-
Including the cities of Ord, Loup City, Sherman Reservoir,
Litchfield, Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg,
and Kearney
302 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost
formation.

* WHERE...Valley, Sherman, Dawson and Buffalo Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
left uncovered.

[james1976]

Another 0.35" overnight. Event total 1.67" so far. Maybe a bit more today.

[Tom]

Autumn has finally arrived and looks to stick around for the foreseeable future.  I'm looking forward to some drier, cool, crisp mornings/evenings...I can see myself having a bonfire Friday evening...ahhh, I can already smell the burning wood!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've been waiting a long time to see if the models would trend towards the idea of a SW ridge, North American Vortex, eastern CONUS trough and a favorable blocking pattern as the opening Exhibit of the new LRC pattern.  So, we are finally at that stage where we can finally get an idea from the models what the first "full" week of the new pattern will look like.  I'm encouraged to see the 00z EPS trending that way and wouldn't ya know it, the model is also trending colder in this time-frame which is being influenced by the blocking in all the right places.

 

 

 

 

 

If the GEFS are right in the extended, it does not at all look terribly warm across the central/northern part of the Sub Forum.  In fact, one can argue that the storms/troughs that are on deck (6th-8th) & (10th-13th) may actually influence our pattern quite a bit by ushering in stronger pushes of cold air, esp if the blocking continues to grow stronger (-NAO).

 

 

Taking a gander at the 00z EPS 500mb animation below, notice the BIG corrections over the last 6 runs for what I believe will be Storm #1 and probably Day 1 of the new LRC.  There are several things I'd like to point out that look very encouraging: 1) NW NAMER Ridge  2) Trough placement farther off the west coast  3)  SW Ridge  4) Trough across Central CONUS trending deeper 5) High Lat Blocking

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

The low that moved through the area overnight was fairly robust.  Even though CR was on the southern edge again, I picked up another several tenths, which boosted my evening/overnight total to 1.92".  If I include the Tuesday morning rain, my total is 2.04".

 

Locations just north of Cedar Rapids received another 1.0-1.4" overnight, giving them a total of 3-4+".

 

Models struggled with the exact placement, but they were dead right about the sharp southern edge somewhere in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.  This is why I was so worried.  The edge ended up right in between the two.  Iowa City got nothing.

 

[Hawkeye]

Another round of rain is on the way later today as a trailing disturbance moves through the region.  It should be light up here, but there could be a band of heavier rain to the south.

[Andie]

Two more days of 96* heat and then we are promised a high 80's.

By Monday we may see a high of 79*! With light rain.

 

We're all ready for the change. It's been a long dry August-September and I'm done for the year on this.

With luck it will wash a lot of the allergens out of the atmosphere.

[Clinton]

Hopefully you get a taste of this amazing temp.  We actually just dropped to 49 degrees as the rain continues to pour down.  Wind still blowing out of the north between 15-20 mph.  We are going to have our football practice in one of our gyms after school as our practice field has standing water in places and we don't want to take any chances of an injury due to slipping.

Front is expected here around 6 or 7 this evening.  The high today is expected to be around 86 and tomorrow morning we are expecting a low of 49.  It will be a welcome shock to the system.

[westMJim]

A very wet night here. At 7 am I reported 2.09” of rain. At this time it is still raining here, the temperature has dropped from 67 at 6:30 and is now at 63° with a DP of 63 with that rain that is falling.

New record warmest minimum set at Grand Rapids and Muskegon. The low for yesterday at GRR of 69 and the low of 68 set new warmest minimums for both locations for October 1^st  The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 77/69 and there was 0.67” of rain fall up to midnight.  For today the average H/L is 66/46. The record high is 87° set in 1971 and the record low is 27 set in 1974. The record warmest minimum is 63 set in 1971 and the coldest maximum is 44 set in 1974. Last year the H/L was 65/56.

[East Dubzz]

My parents rain gauge picked up 3.73” of rain yesterday/last night/overnight.

[Hawkeye]

My parents rain gauge picked up 3.73” of rain yesterday/last night/overnight.

 

Man, how many times have you posted something like this over the last few months?  Your parents hit the jackpot this summer/fall.