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October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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My understanding is the PNW just got clipped by the edge of the airmass and it was incredibly cold. 

 

I used to live in Bartlesville, OK and the #'s it put up there are absolutely insane, especially for highs. 

 

19th: 9/1

20th: 13/1

21st: 13/4

22nd: 6/0

23rd: 6/1

24th: 5/-3

25th: 12/-4

 

Their records go back to 1920 and they have never had another arctic outbreak with highs in the single digits...

 

They ran a -14 departure for the month

 

That is incredible. Yeah, we had -16C overhead and all-time record cold in eastern Oregon despite the backdoor nature of that event. Such a beastly airmass. It's very similar to what late Jan/early Feb 1996 tried to accomplish, but fell a little short in that case. 

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My understanding is the PNW just got clipped by the edge of the airmass and it was incredibly cold. 

 

I used to live in Bartlesville, OK and the #'s it put up there are absolutely insane, especially for highs. 

 

19th: 9/1

20th: 13/1

21st: 13/4

22nd: 6/0

23rd: 6/1

24th: 5/-3

25th: 12/-4

 

Their records go back to 1920 and they have never had another arctic outbreak with highs in the single digits...

 

They ran a -14 departure for the month

 

Must have been some massive CONUS-wide event.  I think a similar one happened in Dec 2013?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Surprising. Figured you wouldve had one 2016/17

 

The snow from the 12/14 event mostly melted prior to Christmas, and then it snowed on 12/26 in 2016. 

 

In 2017 we had a dusting of snow on the 24th and then 33 degree rain for Christmas, while PDX had a white Christmas. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Surprising. Figured you wouldve had one 2016/17

 

I don't remember one in 16/17 but the 17/18 one was a Woodburn north event.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My understanding is the PNW just got clipped by the edge of the airmass and it was incredibly cold. 

 

I used to live in Bartlesville, OK and the #'s it put up there are absolutely insane, especially for highs. 

 

19th: 9/1

20th: 13/1

21st: 13/4

22nd: 6/0

23rd: 6/1

24th: 5/-3

25th: 12/-4

 

Their records go back to 1920 and they have never had another arctic outbreak with highs in the single digits...

 

They ran a -14 departure for the month

 

Easily the greatest cold wave on record here. Denver was below 0 for five straight days.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I don't remember one in 16/17 but the 17/18 one was a Woodburn north event.

 

There was a really good snow event in the Central Valley on 12/14. Salem and Silverton both had 5" of snow.

 

We had a white New Year's on 2017. About 8" of snow total. Silverton got slammed that night with 4-5" right in town. Just north Mt. Angel only had a dusting. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Guest CulverJosh

There was a really good snow event in the Central Valley on 12/14. Salem and Silverton both had 5" of snow.

 

We had a white New Year's on 2017. About 8" of snow total. Silverton got slammed that night with 4-5" right in town. Just north Mt. Angel only had a dusting.

Warm nose always hits Mt Angel to Canby to Molalla to OC it seems.

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There was a really good snow event in the Central Valley on 12/14. Salem and Silverton both had 5" of snow.

 

We had a white New Year's on 2017. About 8" of snow total. Silverton got slammed that night with 4-5" right in town. Just north Mt. Angel only had a dusting. 

 

Interestingly I only got about 2.5" with the 12/14 event. There was a warm nose for the first half of the event so it was raining in the foothills while Salem and Silverton were receiving snow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Warm nose always hits Mt Angel to Canby to Molalla to OC it seems.

 

It does. The foothills get hit with the warm nose during a lot of the valley snow events. I recall warm noses on 3/21/12, 1/3/16, 12/14/16, 1/11/17, 12/24/17, February 2014 too. Most if not all of these events I had snow, sometimes a lot (21" on 3/21-22/12), but there were periods of rain when sometimes Salem and Silverton on the valley floor were receiving heavy snow. 

 

Of course there have probably been 40-50 days during the past 8 years I had snow when the valley did not... So it works out. Especially with cold onshore flow. However, typically when there is a widespread valley snow event I end up with about the same if not less snow than the valley. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I would also say for the Central Willamette valley, the 2013/14 period-present has been pretty decent for snow and winter time cold. Definitely better than the 20 years prior. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Interestingly I only got about 2.5" with the 12/14 event. There was a warm nose for the first half of the event so it was raining in the foothills while Salem and Silverton were receiving snow. 

 

Yeah I wanna say the low came inland right over the south valley with that one because I think it was mostly ice here.  I lived in Monmouth at the time and had 3-4" after about a couple hours of sleet.

 

The event on Jan 7, 2017 was the best one here during that cold season, dropping between 5-7" around town.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Snowed half the day at Sunriver yesterday. On September 30th...not psychologically or physically ready yet.

 

Had maybe a couple hours of non-sticking flakes late on the 28th here, at 37 degrees. Yeah many folks who live in an area that gets winter every year are not ready. Kids generally don't really think about trick or treating in the snow here, it might happen this year if it is timed right.

 

Impressive.

 

But then again, it can freeze any day of the year in Sunriver. I’ve experienced a 30°F low on July 3rd. Once it frosted there on August 1st.

 

That's a cooler place than many, at least in terms of lows. So far upper 30's is about my coolest July low I've seen in all these years.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It does. The foothills get hit with the warm nose during a lot of the valley snow events. I recall warm noses on 3/21/12, 1/3/16, 12/14/16, 1/11/17, 12/24/17, February 2014 too. Most if not all of these events I had snow, sometimes a lot (21" on 3/21-22/12), but there were periods of rain when sometimes Salem and Silverton on the valley floor were receiving heavy snow. 

 

Of course there have probably been 40-50 days during the past 8 years I had snow when the valley did not... So it works out. Especially with cold onshore flow. However, typically when there is a widespread valley snow event I end up with about the same if not less snow than the valley. 

 

In some of Dec 2016 I think the Pendleton CWA saw the best out of that month. I had a 5.7" day on the 14th which is not really considered a big storm here, and temperature wise a lot warmer than Jan 2017.

 

Yeah, there were actually a few times I recall getting 40-45 degree rain, actually pouring for hours straight and you would get blasted with several inches of snow in Silver Falls. Sometimes the north vs. south thing really makes a difference.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Prove it.

 

There is someone who used to live in south Salem area, had 12-15" in Feb 2014. I don't think he's a member here but he occasionally posts on one of the FB groups.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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There is someone who used to live in south Salem area, had 12-15" in Feb 2014. I don't think he's a member here but he occasionally posts on one of the FB groups.

Yeah the Corvallis/Albany area got hammered with that one too.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7" in EUG with the Feb, 2014 action. Pacific City had a foot in some places esp in the nicer houses on the hill.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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25 degrees this morning. Almost chilly.

 

In the first week of October it's not uncommon to have mid 20's but regionally I'm sure this was a cold morning.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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How much and when is the most snow you’ve seen fall where you lived?

In town? Late December 2008. We had a little over a foot at the peak a few days before Christmas.

 

Out in the Gorge, February 2014. We had an 18” depth at one point with that series of storms.

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I'm feeling really good about the first half of October at least.  Assuming the ECMWF is a worst case scenario it still ends up in a good place.  The 12z EPS actually looks more GFS like anyway.  One thing all the models have in common is a massive and persistent surface high over the NE Pacific and GOA.  As I have mentioned in previous seasons; years that have abnormal high pressure in that region in October almost always go on to be good winters here.  That is also a setup that will rapidly tank the PDO (a process that is already well underway).

 

 

 

 

post-222-0-23895800-1569964087_thumb.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm feeling really good about the first half of October at least. Assuming the ECMWF is a worst case scenario it still ends up in a good place. The 12z EPS actually looks more GFS like anyway. One thing all the models have in common is a massive and persistent surface high over the NE Pacific and GOA. As I have mentioned in previous seasons; years that have abnormal high pressure in that region in October almost always go on to be good winters here. That is also a setup that will rapidly tank the PDO (a process that is already well underway).

Is that what your NPI? Index was based on?
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25 degrees this morning. Almost chilly.

 

In the first week of October it's not uncommon to have mid 20's but regionally I'm sure this was a cold morning.

36 and a little frosty here. Earliest frost I’ve ever seen in Tacoma. It was pretty impressive for most places.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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36 and a little frosty here. Earliest frost I’ve ever seen in Tacoma. It was pretty impressive for most places.

 

More anomalous in lowland areas I imagine. 

 

8 out of every 10 times there is something in the 20's at KLMT during this first week. There was even a 21 in 2017 in early October.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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More anomalous in lowland areas I imagine. 

 

8 out of every 10 times there is something in the 20's at KLMT during this first week. There was even a 21 in 2017 in early October.

We typically don’t see our first low in the 30s until late October or early November. Frost in mid November at is normal as well, hitting 36 on the first day of October and having frost is pretty anomalous.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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For one, I loved 2016-2017. IMBY I had 25-30 inches of snow that winter.

 

Rundown:

 

1-3 inches on December 8th, 0.75 inches of ice.

2-4 inches on December 15th.

1 inch on January 8th, 0.5 inches of ice.

17 inches on January 10th.

1 inch on February 5th.

 

Not to mention several gusts 55-65 on April 7th.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I'm feeling really good about the first half of October at least.  Assuming the ECMWF is a worst case scenario it still ends up in a good place.  The 12z EPS actually looks more GFS like anyway.  One thing all the models have in common is a massive and persistent surface high over the NE Pacific and GOA.  As I have mentioned in previous seasons; years that have abnormal high pressure in that region in October almost always go on to be good winters here.  That is also a setup that will rapidly tank the PDO (a process that is already well underway).

 

Yes it does. The operational Euro seems kind of on its own right now with trying to turn that trough into a cutoff low.

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There is someone who used to live in south Salem area, had 12-15" in Feb 2014. I don't think he's a member here but he occasionally posts on one of the FB groups.

I had about 9" 2/14 in the hills of West Salem. That was about as far north as the heavy accumulations fell. South Salem hills, only about 3 miles south of me ATCF, did receive closer to a foot.

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NWS tweeted that Great Falls, MT hit 9 degrees this morning. Looks like their earliest single digits on record by a full week (10/8/1985).

Also looks like the 37 at PDX was their earliest since 9/28/1983.

The frequency at which the 1980s’ records have fallen over these last few years (relative to other decades) is interesting in the context of the ongoing +PMM/-AMM structure, which until the 2010s, was not observed outside that 1977-1994 period and (perhaps not coincidently) the 1910-1935 period.

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The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

 

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

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Guest CulverJosh

The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

 

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

Lots of ridging in the midwest. Could spell some NorEasters if you can get some strong highs in Eastern Canada.
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